Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  3. [“It’s the economy stupid”.]

    Surely then that means the Opposition would use that “Focus on the economy” line if Rudd did anything besides talk about economics for the next two years?

    What a boring two years.

  4. [Surely then that means the Opposition would use that “Focus on the economy” line if Rudd did anything besides talk about economics for the next two years?]

    Well most things can be traced back to the economy though, so that line wouldn’t work. Climate change, education, broadband etc can all be linked to improving the economy in the long run. I challenge you to come up with a genuine economic link to moving to a Republic.

  6. [I challenge you to come up with a genuine economic link to moving to a Republic.]

    I don’t think there is one. My point is that it’s going to be very disappointing if all the Government does is talk about things in terms of economics and their effect on growth and the budget.

    It’s pathetic that the only reason the environment and education are supposedly on the agenda is because of the economy.

  7. “My point is that it’s going to be very disappointing if all the Government does is talk about things in terms of economics and their effect on growth and the budget.”

    Just give it time. When we move out of this economic climate, the Rudd government will be able to move on to other things in their next term, having been the messiahs of the Australian economy for keeping growth in the positive.

  8. Ken Henrys address to the Nat Press Club tomorrow should interesting. More so give robbs latest attack on treasury :-

    “THE Coalition today renewed its attack on the credibility of Treasury boss Ken Henry, accusing his department of cooking the books on their economic growth forecast to save Kevin Rudd from embarrassment.

    Infrastructure spokesman Andrew Robb today accused the Government of “manipulation” after a split emerged between the Reserve Bank and the Treasury over whether economic growth will fall below 2 per cent. ”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24634397-601,00.html

    These are very serious charges to make. Let wait with bated breath to see how the our media “Of Record” approach this. Maybe some more postdated emails ??

  9. Julie Bishop has been saying similar stuff:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/11/2416165.htm?section=justin

    [Opposition treasury spokeswoman Julie Bishop says the move by Treasury to factor in interest rates is unusual.]

    [“If you have to do something unusual in taking into account interest rate cuts to come up with a figure of two you have to look at the RBA’s figure of 1.5 and say that’s closer to the mark.”]

    If every economist is predicting a rate cut, if not plenty more, wouldn’t it be silly not to factor that in to the predictions? Obviously it would be a bit weird if the RBA did it.

  10. [I don’t think there is one. My point is that it’s going to be very disappointing if all the Government does is talk about things in terms of economics and their effect on growth and the budget.]

    Unfortunately I don’t think they will have much choice if the economy gets worse. How else do you ‘justify’ a considerably minimsed surplus or even a deficit without explaining the economic benefits of what all the money is being spent on?

    [It’s pathetic that the only reason the environment and education are supposedly on the agenda is because of the economy]

    They were on the agenda before the GFC, and the environment certainly wasn’t on it for the economic impact alone, but it was a part of it

  11. [Brown might well say that, but in my opinion he’s wrong. “It’s the economy stupid”.]
    But most other issues have economic components. Like paid maternity leave and carbon trading. They are ultimately economic questions as well as social an environmental ones.

  12. [But most other issues have economic components. Like paid maternity leave and carbon trading. They are ultimately economic questions as well as social an environmental ones.]

    Exactly, that was my point. The Republic however has no economic component (other than how much it will cost us financially to organise), so in an economic crisis it is a no go.

  13. Oz – lets hope julie bishop keeps banging her jaws together with her nonsense.

    She is only another blunder or two away from being damaged goods. Another serious bout of plagiarism and she might as well be taken to the wood shed.

    Someone might gently (or otherwise) remind the fibs that less than 12 months ago Ken Henry and treasury were key elements of the success of the rodent government. If Henry’s integrity was subject to such severe doubt why didn’t they deal with it then ?

  16. Goodness me, all that heat and noise (if no light) and nothing to show for it. You’d like to think that the Libs might now realise that being an effective Opposition means more than bagging everything the government does, but in my experience conservatives aren’t usually that reflective.

    The main problem the Libs have is that they are suffering serious bout of relevance deprivation syndrome (to be fair Labor suffered this too in the late 90s), but they will need to wait until the electoral cycle turns their way again. It surely will – the WA Liberals are good example of a not especially competent party getting into government because the time was right – but there’s a long way to go yet for their Federal counterparts.

    The Federal electoral cycle is just beginning, and given that the Rudd government has been various shades of competent (not to mention popular) over their first year, you would imagine that they will get three terms before the Libs can put up a decent challenge – this will make it 2016 before we have a contest (assuming no early elections). Oh what a dark, dark time to be a Liberal….

  17. Hugo well before then we’ll have just about control of every State Parliament…so i wouldnt go bleating how good it is to be a Labour man.

    Most governments in western countries run on about a 10 year life span if they are competent i would argue Labour arent competent (re Swan fumbling with his notes for 3mins before answering a simple question) so they will at most have 2 terms.

  19. No Glen, incompetent was Howard’s first term or Whitlam’s second – a ‘gotcha’ moment like Swan had last week does not add up to incompetence . The Rudd government is too cautious to make too many mistakes (though that lack of boldness may be a problem for them down the track).

    You are correct to say that most western governments get a run of about a decade, which is where my 2016 came from.

    However you might be making a leap to say that the Libs will “just about control every State parliament by then”. Looking across the Federation, I can see opportunities for the Libs to win in NSW next time (though I wouldn’t bet too much on that), but I’d expect Labor to be re-elected in Queensland, Victoria, SA & Tasmania. Still 2016 is a long way away, so I guess you can hope that you might hold more than 2 states by then….

  20. “Hugo well before then we’ll have just about control of every State Parliament…”

    I’ll let you delude yourself in to thinking that.

    Just like how the polls were wrong in 2007 eh?

    When are you getting your wool re-dyed? 😀

  21. […i would argue Labour arent competent (re Swan fumbling with his notes for 3mins before answering a simple question)…]

    OMG, not another “Treasurer must be a master technician” spruiker again!

    Glen, Swan lost his notes. The journos had nothing else to go on so they decided this was a big thing and wrote it up as such.

    It’s similar to saying his office bought the wrong paper-clips once and that this must surely reflect on his judgement about more important matters.

    There’s no logical connection between Swan losing his notes and the competence of the government. “Spot-a-gaffe” is a game invented by journalists, and desperate delusionists, to keep themselves occupied while the polls continue to soar ever higher.

    Today’s in not just one poll… it’s the 50th or so in a run of Newspolls going back to this time in 2006. It ain’t a fluke baby.

  22. Did anyone see ABC2 Breakfast this a.m. Kim Carr was interviewed by La Trioli. I’m not one who usually wants to kiss Kim Carr but I did this morning.

    Triolio spouted stuff that Laura Tingle had written in the AFR about the car plan being illthought out, useless, etc. etc. Triolio was speaking in her usual ‘I know everything and what I say is right’ attitude with face to match. Whatever Tingle had written was supposedly spot on and Triolio wanted to know what Carr had to say to that (as in ‘take that you stupid Labor dolt!).

    Carr very quietly said wtte – “Canberra Press Gallery journalists don’t live in the real world – they don’t know how people are hurting, losing jobs, etc. etc. Press Gallery journalists are too incestuous – don’t get out and mix enough”

    BIG BIG KISSES FOR KIM CARR from this household.

  24. The important thing for the fibs is WHO becomes leader when allbull’s poll numbers become just too much blow torch on the belly for the coalition to tolerate ?

    Are the blue blood combo of allbull and mesmerelda EVER going to be embraced by voters ?

    allbull hasn’t got much time after about mid Autumn 2009 to really demonstrate electoral support. The fibs don’t tolerate polling failure and they will need traffic lights and traffic cops to organise the people with sharp knives in hand wanting to stab allbull in the back.

    So who then….Mesmerelda or tip or hockey or shudder “people skills” ?

    How can they eek out policy within the next 8 – 9 months when their position on major issues change so frequently. Deep in their dark hearts they STILL want serf choices and deny climate change. Who will ever believe they would rule moderately ?

  26. [ Oz
    Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2008 at 10:57 am | Permalink
    But Rudd said the republic wasn’t a priority in his first term of government

    Touche.
    ]

    Because something isn’t a priority doesn’t mean it won’t get done 😀 …. note he didn’t say “I won’t do this”

  28. [Are the blue blood combo of allbull and mesmerelda EVER going to be embraced by voters ?]

    Not by those voters who matter: swinging voters.

    Unless there’s enough of them who will vote to undermine fairness in the workplace for their own kids. Somehow I’m pretty sure most people will not knowingly vote for an industrial-strength dose of SerfChoices.

    Labor’s just got to inform the voters of the Liberals’ IR agenda (because, going by their record on this in the past, it’s to to be expected they will be forthcoming themselves).

  29. dave @ 113,

    [
    Oz – lets hope julie bishop keeps banging her jaws together with her nonsense.

    She is only another blunder or two away from being damaged goods. Another serious bout of plagiarism and she might as well be taken to the wood shed.
    ]

    Did you see her on Good News Week after AI last night? While that doesn’t count as a blunder, I’m not sure she impressed one and all with any positive qualities 😉 ….

  31. Dont you ever wonder why no centre-right supporters write on this blog??
    You dont allow people to have their own opinions and if they share them they are then chastised….this blog is not a true representation of Australia as a whole.

  33. The former premier of South Australia, Rob Kerin, has announced he is retiring – effective immediately, forcing a by-election in the South Australia state seat of Frome, currently held by a margin of 3.4%. In the current circumstances in SA, even taking into account Kerin’s personal poularity, I would expect this to be held by the Liberals. Could be an interesting one though …

  34. [Did Conroy have anything to do with Feilding getting the preference deal that got him elected?]

    From Conroy’s point of view (And then presumably from a pair proportion of the Vic Labor Party) Fielding is preferable to The Greens.

  36. Glen @ 117

    It was 80 seconds, not 180 as you claim … If Swan were fumbling to respond to a brainless gotcha question from a hair-flipping, gum-chewing, 19 year old “journalist” from Austereo (or wherever), your conclusion with regard to Swan’s competence would be completely justified. As it is, you miscalculated by 100 seconds; Swan’s answer, falling within the Peter-Meakin-approved 90 second gotcha limit, revealed no evidence of incompetence.

    Incidentally, who is the Queensland’s Young Liberal Policy Vice President? (No Googling … Your time starts NOW …)

  37. “Dont you ever wonder why no centre-right supporters write on this blog??”

    Just look in limited news publications. They have a monopoly on the fibs views.

    Pity they are well out of step with the voters as well.

  41. [Oz @ 135, it is a wild day, isn’t it? The speaker is working OT and it isn’t even 2:30 yet :-D]

    100x more fun than yesterday’s.

    Haha Tanner is taking on Bishop’s GNW performance.

  45. Last night (for those who didn’t watch) they had Julie B. give a “caption” for a picture where Joe Hockey was waving his hands while at the speakers podium and she behind him in her seat in the shot had a sour look on her face. Probably not much different from this afternoon 😀

  47. methinks mesma is a bigger liability for the tories than truffles, the cut and paste fiascos and the sense/whiff/vibe she’s still very pro serf choices make her an unlikley target of swinging affection

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