Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

  1. Judith, I’m also in Canberra and I can concur with this as well. No one anywhere is worried about this at all. I’ve just returned from the newsagents and in addition to the local Canberra Times being not worried about it, I can assure you that the Daily Tele in Sydney and the SMH have bigger fish to fry with the NSW Labor party. The only people beating this dead horse are Libs of pretty much any persuasion and right wing Labor people who’ve perhaps never been fully onboard anyways.

  2. [i’ve quite a few contacts in America interested in politics and they’ve not seen a word about it over there, in fact they said if it was’nt for reading the Australian papers they wouldnt have known about it.]

    It’s the usual case of certain people far overreaching our importance in the world, particularly the US. Sure, we’re in the G20, but in terms of little trivialities like this having some kind of massive impact overseas simply because the media and opposition think it should… it’s delusional.

  3. Dave, no complaints from me on that. John Howard was, to me, the worst and most contemptable Prime Minister in Australian history.

    That doesn’t mean people can’t have legitimate complaints about the current government. I agree with most people here that it’s time to move on from the issue. The story’s been printed, the Government has given (or rather not given) an explanation and there’s nothing more that can be gained by having any inquiries, investigations etc. etc.

    That being said, I’m surprised how much people on here who think the whole story is rubbish talk about it given it’s, to them, not an issue at all.

  4. the sooner the NSW government passes a no confidence vote on itself the better. Get the slaughter over and done with next year, clearing the decks for Kev10.

    It would also be best for NSW. It seems to be hemorrhaging at the moment with no prospect of healing.

  5. urgh I feel dirty. I followed that link to Bolt’s blog. That end of gene pool needs super chlorination before it’s safe to swim in.

    Mr Bolt’s name needs to come up a lot more often when ever any sanctimonious Lib wants to toss off about leaks.

  6. ltep

    “That being said, I’m surprised how much people on here who think the whole story is rubbish talk about it given it’s, to them, not an issue at all.”

    ….err its called political debate. Thats what this blog is about ? People are entitled to have and express different views. We don’t have to agree.

    the rodent years have done sooo much damage to the fibs brand name that julie bishops “damaged goods” situation is just one indicator of the deep damage done to brand “fibs”. The leaflet stunts in lindsay, serfchoices will take a long time to be forgiven, if ever.

    Many people see the entire G20 thing as a total beat up irrespective of how it is presented, argued or commented upon. Just look at which media outlets are running with it day after day after day after day. The smucks haven’t realised they are immunising the government from any serious blowback.

    IF it had merit, given the wide media airing it has had – people would had formed much stonger opinion long before now.

    Even if the fibs argument had merit, which it doesn’t, the fibs have flogged the horse to death, overcooked it and outright failed to take the people with them. Compare this to the government line “Look at what the fibs do, rather than what they say”

  7. Dave, luv it lol, on the famous phamplets saga, one of their helpers said it wasnt the first time they’d done something like that, he claimed something similar was done at the previous election, with all the hoo ha and the election happening in 48 hours i think that little fact slipped below the radar.

  8. 607
    Is is too Machiavellian to suggest that the G20 comment was scripted and thrown out the back door so that the rapid dog would be occupied on things other than that which they should?
    It’s also a pretty simple demonstration of how rabid the dog really is; something the electorate seems to have noticed. A little reinforcement never hurt anyone…
    Surely not…but if they’re that simple – why not?

  9. “….err its called political debate.”

    What debate? A group of people agreeing with one another that the Government is brilliant and has never done anything wrong is not political debate. Or is the debate part the part where the group agrees with one another about how the media is unfairly ganging up on the government?

  10. Judith at number 609:

    [on the famous phamplets saga, one of their helpers said it wasnt the first time they’d done something like that, he claimed something similar was done at the previous election]

    I’d be interested to read a link on that if you can help please.

    Dave at 608, You put your quoted section into square brackets. On my keyboard, they’re the keys immediately to the right of “P”.

  11. and dave @ 608, it works best if you put the brackets on a line all by themselves. On rare occasions, they can get confused with the puncuation and if they are on a line by themselves, that won’t happen.

    i.e.

    [
    text, text, etc …..
    ]

  12. ltep # 601

    lol thanks for the light relief – you are a real trooper 🙂

    “is the debate part the part where the group agrees with one another about how the media is unfairly ganging up on the government?”

    probably reminds some fibs about the rodent years and how those were the days 🙂

  13. It’s not really whether the leak is a fact or not.

    It’s that the Libs are trying to undermine Rudd’s participarion in one of the most important World congresses in many decades: the G20 meeting that’s about to commence. they are shouting loud and long that he has not only made a gaffe but that no other leader will ever trust him again, especially not the important G20 meeting.

    Let’s just say it was true. And let’s just say the other world leaders were listening to Turnbull’s bleatings. Where would we be now? We’d have our PM shut out of the G20. What possible good could that do for our country? It’s two years to the election, so there’s no pressing political need for Turnbull to be doing what he’s doing. Rudd won’t be resigning any time soon because Turnbull has “put pressure” on him (as Shanahan fantasises).

    There are two alternative takes on this to me:

    1. No-one is listening, Turnbull knows it, and so Turnbull knows he can bleat on in a vacuum.

    2. Turnbull doesn’t care what damage he does, or might do to Australia, as long as he scores a cheap point.

    Or maybe both…

    That is why I don’t like Turnbull’s actions. They seem to signify a man who literally has no concern over the damage he is doing to himself, his party and perhaps even his country by his rabble-rousing efforts to self-aggrandize.

  14. Bolt wants Turnbull to bring back Nelson, Costello and Andrews, and give more airtime to Abbott. But if he thinks Bishop is damaged goods, how damaged are these guys? I agree that Nelson should be resurrected in the new year. Costello, Andrews and Abbott are all deeply implicated in WorkChoices

  15. Adam,

    Yesterday I heard Julia say that Turnbull voted 23 times for SerfChoices, so that implicates him too. In fact, they all voted for it, didn’t they, with no abstainers? That being the case, they’re all implicated.

  16. BB @ 618
    I don’t think anyone is suggesting that Rudd should be shut out of the G20 or that he can’t be trusted in most respects. It wasn’t a hanging offence. The leak is only claimed to have raised doubts as to whether he’s a blabbermouth, and that therefore phone conversations between him and other leaders might not be as frank as previously.

  17. Adam,

    Bolt has been unmasked as a Labor sleeper cell. Bring back Andrews, Costello, Nelson and bring People Skills into the lime light – it’s Brilliant! Labor will challenge Menzies’ longevity.

  18. Cuppa, yes of course all the Libs voted for WC, but Turnbull was never the responsible minister, and IR has never been one of his pet causes. Abbott and Andrews were both IR minister under Howard, and Costello was WC’s main cheerleader.

  19. May as well go the whole way and unearth Bronwyn ‘kerosene bath’ Bishop, Fran ‘shade cloth’ Bailey, Phillip ‘Buckley’s’ Ruddock etc. etc.

  20. It speaks volumes that shanhanhanahanhan AND Dolt are lined up to put the boot into the fibs, mesmerelda in particular.

    Whats next porky piers encouraging people to vote labor at the next federal election.

    Articles severely critical of the fibs from the aforesaid do not appear without a lot of widespread strong feeling by key players within the fibbers party.

    Seems many have put their collective fingers to the wind and deducted the stench is not only Ms mesmereldas rotting political corpse swinging in the breeze but the future of the party of “pig-iron” bob itself unless they find a way to connect to voters.

    QT for the fibs has been hijacked by allbull to solely advance his own ambition at any expense to his party or country. They have another rodent on their hands and many of the fibs knew this was likely when he was elected.

    All of this even before they start to develop policy for an election looming fast.

    But who will ever believe them again.

    Just remember the leaflets in Lindsay, surfchoices and the years of the rodent.

  21. I’ve never been able to figure Abbott out. He’s a very smart guy, and his policy instricts are generally fairly progressive. He was by all accounts quite good as Health minister. But he just cannot stop himself periodically making these really nasty personal attacks on people – particularly women.

  22. Agreed on Abbott, does a lot of charity stuff that goes unnoticed, and can sometimes make some sense. He’s a bit too overtly religious for my personal preferences, but then so is Rudd. But boy can he be a nasty piece of work. Can you imagine what he’d be like if he didn’t have the Lord as his saviour?

  23. Adam – some doubt that “people skills” would have gone anywhere without the sponsorship of rodent. So often he was used in the attack dog role.

    As we have seen so often, this has very limited public appeal. These days he is another fib who is damaged goods. Virtually everytime he stands on his hind legs in the house, he does further damage to himself.

    Remember he came so close to throwing punches in the house. That would have been his political death. A fitting end for a thug and a bully which is what he is.

    I am not overly religious but what a curse he would have been to his religion if ever he had remained in the clergy.

  24. #632

    “Can you imagine what he’d [Abbott] be like if he didn’t have the Lord as his saviour?”

    Less smarmy and sanctimonious, perhaps?

    🙂

  25. A truly repellant personality, the Labor parties dreams would come true if Abbott were made leader. He’d be a very hard sell to many female voters.

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