Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. [The final, most critical, factor is the supply of that ineffable and ephemeral gossamer known as confidence. When six dollars of every 10 in the national economy is accounted for by consumer spending, confidence is the mainstay.]

    One characteristic of Obama during his campaign that must have helped him enormously was that calm steady persona, appearing in control and in charge. At a time when the economy was imploding it must have seemed very reassuring.

    It is difficult to see things from the perspective of the average Australian who may never pay much attention to political game play and only pick up on the broad messages. Hartcher suggests rightly that Rudd and Co have adopted that calm determined persona to give the public some confidence. And given the figures above it is easy to see why.

    It is thus apparent how disgusting and treasonable the Murdoch media has become as not only are they being the promotional arm of Turnbull and the Liberal party, they are in the process as their tactic trashing the RBA, Henry and confidence in the economy – directly and deliberately? trying to cause Australia to go into recession to help Turnbull, by undermining confidence.

    So instead of trying to help Australia by promoting confidence some of these hateful right wing journalists will be trying to put Australians out of work, ruin confidence and hope to cause a recession in the hope that, the LNP get elected.

  3. William Bowe

    #519
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
    suggestion that there be some sort of summation of the main play in both the House and the Senate from Adam in Canberra and some one of equal stature from the other side

    William “No such person exists. Were it so, I agree it would be a very fine thing to have a TWO-headed weekly round-up of parliament appearing as its own post”

    William , well I exist , although without 2 heads and without ‘right’ philosophys , but find alot of coment over th top biased to Labor Actualy th Liberals ar no more afraid of Julia or Tanner than Labor in opposition were of Costello or Howard

    Question time in parliament is grossly stacked odds in favour of th Govenment of th day Oppositions only can ask every 2nd question and can only put so much ‘politcal damage’ into there queston , whereas th Government of day in answering gets a free go to attack …it has always been so for those who enjoy a one sided ‘contest’ (excepyt when a Govt makes a ‘blue’ and even then all cards ar with th Govenment)

    In between , th dorthy dixers become more free attack on an Opposition it is dificult for any opposition given th rulkes to look reasonable And 12 months into a new govt succeeding a 12 years Govt , well i hav memories of 1997 , of a new howard govt after 13 years of Hawke Q and A times and it was not pretty

    Dean Mighell queston from Joe was fine politcaly , but there was no concentrated attack thereafter , whereas th one to Chris Evans whilst dumb on research is one problam of opposition , lack of th Government machinery of info and public servants feeding you info what i feel th opposition missed this week , as Labor also often did in opposition , was consistensy of a thread of credible attack and oz financial woes and suggested solutions were an obvious one

  4. There seems to be a disjunct somewhere. Why would Uncle Rupert really want his papers trashtalking the economy, or supporting those who do, when the ensuing lack of confidence helps tank advertising income, and his share price?

  5. On Janet Albrechtson’s bitterness and Greg Sheridan’s continuing support for Bush:
    There were years of darkness, with Howard and Bush in the saddle (as in one saddle), when it looked like militaristic, free marketeering and socially destructive policies were here to stay for ever. I recall feeling as if my views were just so much detritus on the high-tide line of the beach of history.

    Naturally, Janet, and those to (sic) whom she writes, are feeling despondent and even bitter. Naturally Greg Sheridan sticks with Bush… what is he really going to say? ‘I, Greg Sheridan, was sucked in by the glad-handing of US patrons. I was mainly wrong on foreign policy issues for eight years?’

    Their heroes are scorned. Their ideology has been trashed by the reality test, by the need for massive global intervention by governments in the market. The tide of globalisation has turned. It is difficult for hagiographers to accept that their saints have not converted the world, that Bush and Howard have left a trail of death and destruction, and that their status as prophets has been trashed.

    The acolytes are shivering in the cold wind of irrelevance.

    BTW Greg and Janet, Uncle Rupert is going to have to start tightening the shoe-strings given all that borrowing he has had to do, and the tanking of his advertising revenue. The OO is not looking too good as a money-spinner is it? Ah well, you will appreciate it when the restructures start and the less worthy workers at the OO are sacked. Won’t you?

  6. William @ 532,

    [
    Unfortunately, as Adam points out, this is ill-timed as we’re about to enter the silly season.
    ]

    😀 …….. that horse is out the door and down the street, his name is “Tuckey”

  7. Was this Hartcher’s Road-To-Damascus moment?

    [How can confidence improve as the global bad news continues?

    One reason is the Reserve Bank’s decision to keep cutting rates. Another is the Rudd Government’s stimulus package. Another is that the conduct of senior members of the Rudd Government has reassured the public that grown-ups are on the job. This verdict is clear in the latest polling figures for Rudd, which are astronomical.
    …
    The voters have noticed. As Rudd’s poll numbers have soared, Turnbull’s have declined to the point where the Coalition is barely any better off than it was under the hapless Brendan Nelson.

    Rudd is plainly emerging as the grown-up leader the country craves. ]

    I’m seeing more and more this, a few glimmers of reason, from the media. Slowly some of the more responsible journalists are realising that their colleagues’ and the Opposition’s trash-talking of the government, their flippant levity concerning trivial matters, their gay abandon when it comes to predicting miserable outcomes has had a discernable effect on the economy. Youse know the examples, I won’t list them.

    Perhaps if we really were being disastrously managed economically it would be OK to let it rip. But we are not. Yet, to hear the likes of Turnbull and some of his toadies in the media (although it’s hard to tell who is toadying to whom) talk down everything Rudd does, leverage the slightest hiccup or gaffe into a fatal flaw that will ruin us all, you’d think Australia was done and dusted, in the Otto bin out the front waiting for the compactor truck to come along and take it away.

    From Grattan’s lazy “mega billions” lost by mortgage funds, to the navel gazing of Phonegate we see the lever at work: take a smallish incident (whether true or not) and try to use it to lever a whole lot more misery than it warrants. Grattan tells us that the mortgage funds have lost 143,000 times more money than they even had on deposit, and Turnbull and his condescending journalist mates tell us that by making a joke about Bush (an incident which has been denied by both sides) Rudd has permanently shut himself – and consequently us as a nation – out of any future global solution to the current economic crisis. It’s not only bad for confidence, it doesn’t work, as the polls clearly show.

    The only conclusion left is that it is sheer hatred, coupled with a propensity to over-indulgence. Turnbull is having fun listening to the sound of his own voice, something which more than one commentator here predicted would happen, but not in such dangerous waters. He’s wrecking his own chances of ever being PM, and wrecking his party’s chances of being taken seriously. Surely there must be someone in the Liberal Party who can see that? If not, they’re in for a long haul in Opposition.

  8. #550
    Ron, there are two possibilities:
    1. There was a leak, but, for reasons unknown, parts of the published account are false.
    2. There was no leak, so naturally the published “account” is false.

    In the “circular” statement of mine that you attempted to dismantle, I began from the premise that there was a leak, because that is my impression. I wasn’t trying to _prove_ with that statement that there was a leak.

    As to my impression that there was a leak, here are examples from Michelle Grattan today that reinforce it:
    “So the leak…is particularly embarrassing”
    “Questioning on the leak…”
    “Few would doubt that that he (Rudd) or those around him were responsible for the leak,…”

    Grattan does not have a reputation for taking something as fact unless there are good grounds to believe it. Then there are Rudd’s repeated refusals to deny that there was a leak. Why wouldn’t he kill the story if he could?

    Am I unreasonable in believing that a leak did occur?

  9. Am I unreasonable in saying that no-one outside State Circle gives a toss whether there was a leak or not? That no-one cares whether Bush is offended or not, since Bush is the world’s most unpopular guy? That the Libs couldn’t even get the numbers for a Senate inquiry yesterday? That this story is a dead parrot?

  10. I think everyone will have made up their minds either way on this one based on what’s before them. My opinion is Rudd’s office did leak it, including the comment that Bush did not know what the G20 is. They’ve just refused too many opportunities to deny it for that to not be the case.

  11. Well the reason the select committee didn’t get up in the Senate is because of two things. Firstly, Xenophon said he doesn’t think it’s an important issue. Secondly, the Greens rightly realised the inquiry would be useless. The Greens, however, did indicate that they thought the Government should be more open on the issue.

  12. “Cabinet decision stopped me in reconciliation walk: Costello”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/14/2419492.htm?section=justin

    “”But John Howard didn’t want to walk, there were other ministers who didn’t want to walk.

    So since the Cabinet decided it had to take one view or the other – all walk or all not walk – in the end I didn’t walk either.””

    Completely ridiculous. Why should Cabinet decide whether or not individual ministers, in their private capacities, partake in some type of activity?

  14. #559
    Adam, I’d agree with you if Rudd’s standing among world leaders as someone who can trusted not to blab about phone calls hasn’t been harmed. I’m not sure that’s the case. At best, other leaders wouldn’t be sure if he or his office leaked or not, but that’s reason enough to be wary.

  15. 😀

    [
    When Kev’s away, Killer Gillard comes out to play
    Annabel Crabb
    November 14, 2008

    THERE really isn’t any doubt any more about whether the Deputy Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has the killer instinct.

    The problem tends more to be how to drag her off the victim’s body.

    When the curtain rose on question time yesterday, Ms Gillard sat calmly in the Prime Minister’s chair (its customary occupant having set forth for Washington).

    Ms Gillard greeted her inquisitors with the quietly confident air of a $10,000-an-hour alimony lawyer arriving at her first bout with Eddie Murphy.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/annabel-crabb/when-kevs-away—/2008/11/13/1226318836092.html
    ]

  17. Something for those that voted against the Alcopops tax increase because it was just a money grubbing exercise to think about:

    Raising alcohol taxes reduces deaths

    In the first study of its kind to directly measure the effect of state alcohol tax changes on deaths from alcohol-related diseases, researchers found that raising alcohol taxes had two to four times the impact of other common prevention efforts such as school programs or media campaigns.

    “The findings are quite astounding,” said Alexander C. Wagenaar, PhD, with the University of Florida College of Medicine. “A simple adjustment of the tax rate resulted in a substantial drop in the death rate.”

  18. No-one has voted for or against the alcopops tax increase yet. It was introduced by regulation and is currently being collected. The validating legislation doesn’t have to be passed until next April. If it not passed then the tax increase will lapse and anyone who has kept their receipt will get a refund. The unclaimed difference will be donated to charity.

  20. Hartcher today is one of the first examples of the scales falling from the eyes of our media ‘players’. I don’t think the media is biased particularly (OO an exception), but they are incompetent and lazy. Like sheep they’ll follow each other and bleat the same rubbish.

    They all fell for the Clever Mal rot and so have been seeing the world through the prism of how this genius was going to trouble Rudd and wrote their primary school drivel accordingly. Now one or two of the clearer thinkers are starting to look at the stubborn refusal of the polls to correspond to their expectations they will all soon follow and the criticism will grow.

    There’s one thing the simple folk in the media can always be trusted to support and that’s conflict. They ridiculed Nelson because it was obvious to them he wasn’t going to take any bark off Labor. They blew hard for Turnbull because they just knew he’d give them a contest and a bit of argy bargy is always so much better copy than actually having to do some actual analysis.

    If the polls don’t turn around for Malcolm soon you can expect the whispering campaign will start to gather steam in the media. If they can’t have a real contest between the government and opposition then leadership ructions in the Libs is the next best thing. When he starts being compared to Peacock you’ll know he’s toast.

  21. Triton, my guess is that Diplomats overseas couldn’t care less whether someone, somewhere, took the mickey out of Bush or not.

    They will be more concerned whether that insufferable prat Bush has ruined their national economies almost single handedly by failing to keep guard on his watch, and whether as a result they will be recalled or pilloried themselves for their own failure to warn their Governments of what was going on.

  22. adub, when Turnbull got the nod someone here quoted Albrechson as saying “ladies and gentlemen it’s now games on”, hmmm i wonder if she’d like to eat those words now, the only ones having fun right now are Gillard and Tanner while Rudd like a benevolent father looks amusedly on.

  24. [ My opinion is Rudd’s office did leak it, including the comment that Bush did not know what the G20 is.]
    ltep, you even believe something took place that they HAVE denied, namely the comment that Bush did not know what the G20 was. Spare me.

  25. No one’s posted up Shanahan’s rubbish for today.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24647513-7583,00.html

    [An external economic threat works in the favour of an incumbent government and leader; even unpopular British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has gained ground during the global financial crisis.]

    See the difference between Rudd and Brown is that Rudd was already high up in the polls before the crisis and is now just astronomically high.

    [But Turnbull and Rudd’s senior ministers know that the real political battle and the toughest test of economic management will come in the lead-up to next year’s budget.]

    Since when does Turnbull have “senior ministers”? I thought he was the opposition.

    Then he goes on to talk about Bishop being a liability but then comes up with this gem:

    [What is saving Bishop from more rigorous examination or exposure at the moment is Turnbull’s own credentials as a financial expert and former merchant banker, which are unsettling the ALP.]

    Hear that? Turnbull’s own credentials as a financial expert. Which credentials would they be?

  26. adub, the cartoon accompanying hatchers article will not do anything for allbull’s ego either – but it puts into pretty good perspective where he and the fibs fit into national politics atm. Oh how the party of “pig-iron” Bob has fallen.

    Triton re “My guess is that it won’t have gone unnoticed in diplomatic circles overseas.”

    Surely a plus ! Who is such circles has any doubt what a goose bwb is. Who doesn’t want to see him back on his ranch post haste? No doubt Obama agrees

  27. HAH Penberthy you hack.

    Why did he resign? Did him being a Liberal Party stooge became far too apparent after the whole petition to sack the government shenanigans yesterday?

  29. [But Turnbull and Rudd’s senior ministers know that the real political battle and the toughest test of economic management will come in the lead-up to next year’s budget.]

    Does not imply that Turnbull has senior ministers. “Turnbull” is one category and “Rudd’s senior ministers” is the next category. I though this was a politics blog, not a “nit-pick today’s media” blog.

    [Turnbull’s own credentials as a financial expert and former merchant banker, which are unsettling the ALP.]

    Yeah right, Gillard and Tanner looked sooooo unsettled yesterday.

  30. [Surely a plus ! Who is such circles has any doubt what a goose bwb is. Who doesn’t want to see him back on his ranch post haste? No doubt Obama agrees]

    Yes, Obama must have just forgotten how badly this ‘incident’ was supposed to have damaged Rudd’s reputation when he was one of the first world leaders he called after his win. Poor Barack… only a few days into the job and already his memory has been warped eh?

  31. The Daily Pornograph seem to think they can get the NSW government to resign by “the weight of numbers”. What are these people on?

  32. Oz, at number 475,

    Good pick-ups on Shanahan’s denialist wishful thinking. He cuts a pathetic figure with his prostrate cheering for the Liberal Party. Malcolm’s Ministers indeed! Malcolm’s fearsome credentials as a former merchant banker, indeed!

    I’m glad you’ve gone to the trouble of reading and critiquing it; save me from having to click on an OO link.

  34. Either the Government or the media are going to have to give. I can’t go on for another 2 and a half years with the front page having some kind of NSW rubbish day after day.

  35. Oz,

    Shannananhanhanan has been spying on our conversations of the last few days :

    “JULIE Bishop is politically damaged goods ” etc etc

    Its scary when he agree with many of us here

  36. Adam @ 579

    lol – I was thinking the same thing – if thats what their like “unsettled” I’d hate to be on the receiving end when they felt “settled” lol

  38. dave (and others), you’re assuming that the leak occurred only to embarrass Bush, or make Rudd look good in comparison, and therefore no other leader has anything to worry about. But what if a conversation with any other leader that night would have been leaked too?

    All we know is that a leak occurred (assuming we accept that much), but not why. For example, if it was leaked by an official just because it was a juicy conversation then the next juicy conversation might leak too.

  40. Gary Bruce, I will not ‘spare’ you. We’ve been over this many times. Just because Rudd now denies the comment was ever made does not mean his office did not tell the paper that it did. As I said, they’ve refused to deny that man times which leads one to believe that they did tell the papers that. People are capable of making up their own minds on what happened and whether, if anything happened, it’s of any real consequence. I suspect you believe his office didn’t leak anything and that, even if they did, it’s not of any consequence. I think they did leak it, but it’s not of huge, lasting consequence. The thing that bothers me the most is that they’ve shown that their lines on there being a ‘pro-disclosure culture’ in this Government are just that, lines.

  44. triton very few people care about this stunt that the fibs are running with. A few fellow travellers of the fibs – reptiles of the media are playing with it. Em tasol.

    slice it dice it whatever, pointing fingers will not get people to forget in a hurry what a truely nasty bunch of haters the fibs are. Exhibit the mad monks further display of his hate based “people skills’ in the parliament this week.

    If thats all they have in the tank at this point of the electoral cycle they might as well go play in the traffic and leave things to “the adults” as hatcher said today.

    Julia and tanner wiped the floor with the fibs A team yesterday and pressure is mounting on mr 22% who is headed lower in the coming months.

  46. ltep

    “Yes Gary Bruce, because you cannot or will not take a hard look at the government and recognise they’re not perfect.”

    rodent’s self appointed title of deputy sherriff to GWB did great damage to him, his government and australia in general.

    Have a good hard look at that.

  47. #589 Gary Bruce
    Yes, there are ifs and buts. If I’m Barack Obama and I want to ring Rudd to tell him that I’m launching an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities the next day and don’t tell anyone, then ifs and buts will be more than enough not to.

  50. Adam of Canberra seems to think the whole fiaso is only of interest to the libs–and of course a few journos looking for a lazy headline, he’s where it resounds so i tend to believe him.
    i’ve quite a few contacts in America interested in politics and they’ve not seen a word about it over there, in fact they said if it was’nt for reading the Australian papers they wouldnt have known about it.

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