Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

638 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. 55-45 and down by 40 on the PPM??? Come on Malcolm… all that hot air for the last few weeks about the dastardly government and that’s all you’ve got to show for it? Where’s the member for Bradfield?

  3. the libs still hav’nt learnt that every time they sink the boots into Rudd his popularity just goes up while theirs comes down by the same amount, by the way the Advertiser didnt print that letter i wrote about Turnbull bagging Therese Rein, surprise, surprise.

  7. hahahooooo!! Another damning public verdict on Talcum’s reality-challenged yabbering.

    He seems to think if you just say “Swan out of depth/ Rudd a phoney” enough times in public it might become true. He’s really messed this up, I think. He just seems a nagging, contradictory, self-important nay-sayer while the government acts.

    Hey Talcum: you know those interest rate cuts, and how you claimed credit for the banks passing em on? Well, thing is, they *wouldnt have* without the bank guarantee you’ve been bagging from sunup till dusk.

    Its really v simple, let me explain: banks can get loans from other banks now they have the guarantee. The cost of getting that money has gone down with the risk – thanks to the government’s guarantee. This in turn made it easier to pass the cuts on.

    Perhaps Julie Bishop could explain it to you, in her chapter length essay by someone else.

    Back to the drawing board, Libs!

  8. Love this human interest story on talcum

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24628155-5007146,00.html

    “Kevin Rudd is no prude or stick-in-the-mud. But he doesn’t have Turnbull’s facility with people he doesn’t know.
    A feeling of insecurity emanates from Rudd when he has to manufacture small talk with strangers, a display of discomfort.
    Turnbull has greater social abilities and has learned not to be as instantly dismissive of fools as he once was, even if that means slight pauses before replying to impertinent questions.”

  11. Rudd’s persona is half of what got him the job! What a pile of nonsense! Turnbull is the toff, Rudd is the everyman.

    Just another News Ltd pile of pro-Lib dribble.

  13. since the headline is ““Rudd Capitalises on Crisis”
    with Turnbull’s drop in PPM maybe the healine should be:
    “Turnbull bungles response to Crisis”

  14. omg that article by Farr is pathetic.

    “On weekends we go for long walks. We see hundreds of people every week.’’
    …
    “Turnbull has the energy to do it and comes with an active sense of humour and sense of fun, and considerable charm. You can’t have been a journalist and a lawyer without at some point enjoying the company of all styles and incomes. ”

    Sounds like a personal ad for one of those online dating agencies 😛

  15. [Sounds like a personal ad for one of those online dating agencies]

    Malcolm enjoys long walks on the beach, looking at his own website, and listening to tapes of his own speeches. He seeks men and women of voting age who are interested in a relationship beginning at the next election. Advertisement extended due to lack of interest.

  16. Gusface@58

    And that is journalism? Looks like someone writing a reference.

    They cannot get any more blatant in their intentions than that piece. An out and out attempt to promote Turnbull.

    Gee but isn’t it Kev who quietly visits homeless shelters in the evenings. Gee wonder how Kev is able to talk all those down an out people if that Farr nonsense had any credibility. Farr doesn’t mention one important truth. Turnbull doesn’t and has never cared about anyone else but himself. Rudd obviously does care about the needy. So Farr’s piece would seem an total invention, not related to truth.

    Another demonstration of a sick murdoch newspaper.

  18. It is apparent that News Ltd would support the Bali Bombers against Rudd if they thought it could get Turnbull some votes. There is no line they wont cross in trying to resurrect neoconservative politics.

    How on earth could they produce that maudlin Turnbull swill which is more likley to be opposite of the truth. It is almost like Farr was giving Turnbull a back rub as he dictated that piece.

    You have to ask does Murdoch ever get ashamed of himself for promoting or supporting this type of stuff?

  22. [ I know that State issues don’t normally influence Federal Eleections, but wouldn’t the postpondment of the Northern Line would harm the Liberal vote ? ]

    Depends sensitively on how… um… whoever it is who’s now the member for Cowan does. Compare the performance of John Quigley vs. every other state Labor MP in the northern suburbs at the last election. With 11/15 seats to Liberal and possibly residual annoyance at a couple of years of Barnett government, the only way is down. Then again, the personal vote seems to mean more that I’d thought it would up there in sandpit lot plasma TV fooly sik HSV country. If new boy does well, he’ll probably get back in. If him and Michael Keenan decide being a party hack is their true calling, though, both Cowan and Stirling oughta swing back to Labor. Swan, too.

    I’m very sure nobody else here remembers this, but at the 2004 election, Grok (Curtin uni mag) endorsed Sid Sidebottom in Tasmania on account of his funny name, and Dick Adams for his facial hair. Then Chaser did some thing trying to boost Alan Cadby for PM. Somebody oughta do the same for Mal Washer, the great invisible MP. For someone who’s been in parliament 10 years, he doesn’t get his face around much… time that changed. I nominate Mal for Poll Bludger endorsed candidate. 😛

  23. As I expected, nothing has happened which would change the Government’s popularity. By this time under Nelson the leadership speculation stories had already begun.

    Elf @ 69:

    “Hehehe
    Only four more years boys and girls, then the real government is back.”

    What’s happening in four years? The next election is in 2010, roughly 2 years time. Unless you’re writing the Libs off for that and assuming an early election in the next term?

  24. Also, again I can only express my happiness that Guy Barnett has been bumped to the loseable spot on the Tasmanian Liberal ticket. Hopefully that will mean one less religious loony in the parliament.

  25. [They cannot get any more blatant in their intentions than that piece. An out and out attempt to promote Turnbull. ]

    Promote? Perhaps they’re trying to save what’s left of him.

  28. Re 76
    Shanahan can’t even summon a whimper – MSM and opp. threw everything AND kitchen sink at Kevin (such bitter and personal comments last week) and voter land didn’t budge. I predict Malcolm gone by Feb next year – the Libs won’t put up with these numbers. Whose left to lead tho? Joe Hockey is a possibility but his weight is an issue like it was for Kim Beazley- unfortunately makes him look lazy.

  30. Faint praise from Newspollster on Newsradio this morning comparing Malcolm’s AP to Nelson’s last – not hard to look good compared to a corpse.

  31. Hmmm, it seems the Opposition Organ attacks Rudd, the stronger he becomes.
    In their own polling. Which only they own. And understand. etc.

    Question:
    Is OO endorsement the kiss of death in these post-Howard times?
    Are they too tied to a failed deregulationist agenda to have any popular cred?
    And finally: Why am I even asking these questions when no-one reads the OZ except a circle-jerk of “insiders”? 🙂

  32. You know, the gap between Nelson and Turnbull isn’t all that big.

    Especially considering the gap between Rudd and Turnbull is 6x that of Turnbull and Nelson.

  33. [Dennis today, well um, he seems to be, um… simply reporting the latest Newspoll as it is, without spin?]

    Maybe it was a ghost writer today…

  34. Okay, so perhaps a better PPM rating for Turnbull would be one that is relative to Nelson’s last (16% on Sep 5). Here goes …

    Sep 22: (Actual) 24% (Relative*) 33%

    Oct 14: (Actual) 26% (Relative) 38%

    Oct 28: (Actual) 25% (Relative) 36%

    Nov 11: (Actual) 24% (Relative) 27%

    Much better!

    * Calculated as follows: 100*(24-16)/24

  35. Really the point made by ‘Lefty e’ is the crucial one. Whilst its incredible annoying to us who are mildly obsessed with politics, all this rethoric by the right wing press just does not make any short term impact. If we look at the swings around the fed and state elections over the last 25 years, we can see some fairly strong trends and patterns. The dribble that comes from some of these writers and owners should be considered more like a writer for a football teams mag. Its just baracking, they also have a hugely inflated sense of their influence. Does anyone really believe that these bafoons have any real influence on elections. Has anyone ever said. “Oh I remember in 1975 when that great story on page 2 of the Age brought the government crashing down”. Please start looking for bigger trends and movements. These fools need others to think that they are important or their jobs are on the line. Ignore and they shall perish. If a journo makes a sound and no-one listens, did it really happen?

  36. The next phase of limited news reporting will soon switch to “poor Malcolm” mode and how opposition leader is SO difficult a job and how he really needs to be given a chance as this is the australian way (ie aust newspaper way when coalition politicians are concerned).

    The thing that true baffles me is how the australian newspaper can be regarded as THE newspaper of record in our country. If that is true we are in big trouble.
    The daily garbage we hear from fran kelly on radio national is out of control – she might as well be on the liberal payroll.

    It is about time labor started to put the boot into some of the media reptiles rather then just cope the kicks in the guts. What in the world was mitchell invited to kirribilli in the first place for ?

    The mad monks prediction about Rudds polling numbers falling to pieces soon lasted a long time didn’t it 🙂

    Poor old people skills – just another old duffer – out of power and in a shadow portfolio he doesn’t want, with a leader he will knife with glee when the first opportunity arises.

    Labor have to ratchet up demands for opposition policy after all only 6 – 8 months and we are back in election mode.

  37. At least Turnbull at 22% has an excuse of being in opposition.

    Poor old G.W.Bush on the other hand is the “so called” leader of the free world. He has just set another record.

    [US President George W. Bush’s approval rating has slumped to a record low, according to a new survey released today.

    The CNN television/Opinion Research survey found that just 24 per cent of respondents believe Mr Bush is doing a good job, against 76 per cent who said that was not the case. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24634196-5001028,00.html

  38. scorpio – imagine how this is going down with the american public

    “The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.”

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

  39. “It is about time labor started to put the boot into some of the media reptiles rather then just cope the kicks in the guts.”

    Disagree. It’s the fact Rudd doesn’t play the silly partisan opposition and media games that attracts swing voters.

  40. The battle for Corangamite has begun. Simon Price, a Liberal machine man and former VFF official, has moved back into the local area from Melbourne, and has put together a big ticket for Colac Otway Council. I suspect he wants a council seat to lay the basis for a Corangamite campaign.

  41. If anyone wanted a republic debate, Senator Brown has kicked it off:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/11/2416016.htm

    Personally, I think we should have a plebiscite at the next election and the question should be “Republic, yes or no?” and then another to pick what model. When the election in 2010 comes around there will have been 11 years between referenda on the issue. That’s long enough of a time. If Rudd’s clever he’ll see it as an opportunity to wedge Turnbull and the Liberal Party, because it will become an election issue. Turnbull will have to ago against senior members of his party or show himself to the public to be a complete sellout.

  42. But Rudd said the republic wasn’t a priority in his first term of government. It would be a bit of a backflip and give the impression he isn’t fully concentrated on the economic situation.

  43. bob

    there appears to be a cordinated attack on rudd, his wife and labor by the limited news media and some others. Note the very personal attacks in the msm in the last few days from a range of sources and compare it to the fluff pieces written by the likes of farr on turnbull, “taking long walks with his wife” blah blah…

    rudd cannot lay there and cope the boots to the head indefinitely. If he does he will receive knockout blows sooner than later. There is a lot rudd can do in retaliation against the financial interests of murdoch et al and this should have happened before now.

    how do you think rodent had such a bunch of puppy dogs in the media constantly wagging their collective tails on most of the stuff he did ? Costello famously (?) threatened saul estlake and ANZ and the media still fawn on the very mention of him.

    go figure….

    I know what i would be doing – it would be aimed at all of their pockets and would continue well after the got the message.

  45. [But Rudd said the republic wasn’t a priority in his first term of government. It would be a bit of a backflip and give the impression he isn’t fully concentrated on the economic situation.]
    Having a question put at the next election prepares it for NEXT term.

  46. [It’s the fact Rudd doesn’t play the silly partisan opposition and media games that attracts swing voters]

    I agree totally. It’s why Turnbull’s whinging about the G20 rubbish and other things have seemed so pathetic. Rudd is getting on with the job while the Libs look as though they are playing politics. It’s a very stark contrast.

  47. [But Rudd said the republic wasn’t a priority in his first term of government. It would be a bit of a backflip and give the impression he isn’t fully concentrated on the economic situation.]

    Agree again. The Republic has to wait. Bringing it up now would just open the government up to attacks of “surely the economy is more important?”

  48. [Bringing it up now would just open the government up to attacks of “surely the economy is more important?”]

    On the other hand, like Brown says, the nation doesn’t stop because the economy is in a slump.

  49. [rudd cannot lay there and cope the boots to the head indefinitely]

    Of course that’s true, but right now the electorate doesn’t give a toss. They are more worried about the economy and aren’t even considering the Opposition, having only just recently changed governments. They couldn’t care even if Malcolm saved furry animals from bushfires… it just isn’t on the radar.

  50. [On the other hand, like Brown says, the nation doesn’t stop because the economy is in a slump]

    Brown might well say that, but in my opinion he’s wrong. “It’s the economy stupid”.

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