Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. ltep @ 740,

    You can only defend the indefensible for just so long before you look totally and utterly foolish.

    Most of the News Ltd commentators have long ago passed that level. It doesn’t help the people they are trying to prop up in the long run because they become dependent on that propping up and can never improve their performance, hence the appalling oppositions of recent years.

  2. Heres some warning of a coming Aussie recession that I almost wish they didn’t even bother reporting. It comes from the same market experts who work for the firms that set up the conditions that led to the credit crisis. They didn’t see it coming either:
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/yes-were-in-for-a-short-sharp-shock-20081029-5bgj.html

    Interesting to see in 12 months if they are correct. I’d say its a 50/50 bet at most. The Oz economy has to fall quite a bit to actually go into recession, and there is a signficant stimulus coming as well.

  3. Speaking of significant stimulus, here is a good article about the US interest rate cut overnight. It is amazing that the cuts haven’t influenced the mortgage rate yet.

    [If the federal funds rate were to reach zero, the Fed would not be out of tools for stimulating the economy. But it would have to resort to unconventional tools that it has never used before. Instead of trying to reduce rates on overnight loans between banks, for example, it might start buying longer-term Treasury securities to push those rates down.

    The Fed’s biggest weakness at the moment is that the economy’s problems have less to do with interest rates than the reluctance of banks and financial institutions to lend money. Even though the Fed has lent almost $600 billion to financial institutions in the last month alone, banks are still reluctant to lend to businesses or consumers.

    Since the credit crisis began in August 2007, the Federal Reserve has slashed the fed funds rate to 1.5 percent, from 5.25 percent. But interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are about 6.3 percent, roughly where they were when the credit crisis began.]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/business/economy/30fed.html?ref=economy

  8. Steve,

    I would say that there was a fair chance that these comments were directed at the two financial geniuses, Turnbull and Costello.

    [Mr Battellino also defended the central bank’s 12 consecutive interest rate hikes since May 2002 as necessary to keep a lid on consumer spending and prevent excessive inflation.

    “Some commentators would have us believe that this had a crippling effect on the finances of the household sector. While some households were no doubt severely affected, the facts show that this was not the case for the sector as a whole,” said Mr Battellino.

    Real household disposable income increased by more than 25 per cent during that period of tight monetary policy, he said. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24575315-20142,00.html

  9. Steve

    Terrific link! That speech is very good and has some very intersting facts. Note that the only real problem highlighted was in the non-regulated mortgage broker sector. With bad loans still only 0.5% in Australia, there is no reason to believe our market will crash. But of course, our genius investment advisors (who often know as much about econoics as Turnbull) usually follow US markets down like lemmings off a cliff.

  10. Socrates, it was one of the better and more realistic speeches in Australia for a long time. If the Australian market gurus were to listen to the RBA rather than the Liberal Party version of what is happening economically in Australia, the whole place would be much better off.

  11. http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/10/30/1224956188036.html

    The Greens reject the filter proposal.

    [Greens communications spokesman Scott Ludlam told The Age yesterday that he was concerned the Government was trying to implement a policy that was technically difficult and very expensive for taxpayers]

    [Senator Ludlam said server-level filtering imposed a kind of censorship that “runs counter to what the internet is all about”. The Government would be better investing the filtering money in law enforcement and education.]

  12. Here here, the greens! There goes the chance of passing it on cross benches.

    Now, just got to watch the coalition doesn’t pass Conroy’s rubbish bill.

  15. But perhaps The Greens will force the Australian Luddite Party to have an opt out provision for those of us who don’t want to be nannied.

    I can scarcely believe that the ALP have managed to appoint a more dense Communications Minister in Conroy than Richard Alston or Coonan the Barbarian.

  16. [I can scarcely believe that the ALP have managed to appoint a more dense Communications Minister in Conroy]

    You really think Conroy came up with the idea himself?

  17. The Greens can’t force anything on their own. If Labor, The Nationals, Xenophon and Fielding can agree to a compulsory filter of some sort the Greens will be unable to do anything.

  21. [But perhaps The Greens will force the Australian Luddite Party to have an opt out provision for those of us who don’t want to be nannied.]

    Even an opt-out would leave the problem of slow speeds.

    [If Labor, The Nationals, Xenophon and Fielding can agree to a compulsory filter of some sort the Greens will be unable to do anything.]

    Why’s everyone jumping to the conclusion that the Nats will support it. Have they said anything publically? How often do they, as a block, cross the bench to vote with Labor against the Liberal party?

  22. [I thought the Greens didn’t trade bad policy for good policy.]

    They aren’t going to support it. Now they need to get a formal group together including the Libs, the telco industry and EFA to convince both the Government and the public that it’s a silly idea.

  24. Real risk is not the Nats, but the Coalition getting wedged into it with some bollocks pro-family rhetoric from the ALP.

    But my ‘on-balance’ guess is Conroy’s bill is now officially TOAST.

    Huzzah etc.

  25. Oz, Barnaby Joyce is a member of the ‘somebody think of the children’ club ala Steve Fielding. Remember his indignation to service stations selling ‘unrestricted’ magazines?

  28. [Oz, Barnaby Joyce is a member of the ’somebody think of the children’ club ala Steve Fielding. Remember his indignation to service stations selling ‘unrestricted’ magazines?]

    Yeah and I know that Joyce has crossed the floor a few times, but the whole lot of them? I suppose he is leader in the Senate, but it wouldn’t look good for the coalition.

  31. The Nationals are mostly conservative, religious loonies. They stand for nothing except keeping our country locked in the past.

    Although I suppose it would seem unreasonable to demand faster speed internet for ‘the bush’ and then slap on a filter that will slow it down.

  32. Scorpio, William has made it quite clear that the discussion of moderation principles is not appropriate. If you wish to do so, email him at: pollbludger (at) bigpond.com

  33. Here is a good outcome for democracy: the AFP will not get a closed court hearing at the Haneef inquiry:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/30/2405663.htm

    On a political discussion website its easy to get lost in the politics and forget that sometimes organisations do bad things through sheer incompetence, and the subsequent desire to hide it. From my time in Canberra as a public servant, if there were two departments that meritted a cleanout of their internal ranks (not just the Ministers) it would be this lot (AFP) and Immigration.

  34. From Skink via The Worst Of Perth. And you thought the OO was bad.

    [from Crikey today:

    “West Australian editor Paul Armstrong read an article in the Fin Review a couple of Fridays ago about how the National Party’s Royalties for Region Fund was being seen by both the Nats and the Libs.

    Been a big story here.

    Anyway, he flipped because he thought the Nats had given the Fin an exclusive — picked up the phone and rang Brendon Grylls directly. For 30 minutes he apparently abused the Nats leader and told him he would “end” him. When Grylls asked him what he meant Armstrong apparently told him he would “dismember” Mr Grylls — or words to that effect.

    Armstrong actually belives he runs the state and politicians of all persuasions should bow before him. This story is all over Perth but not sure if anyone has reported it. Yet another of Armstrong’s petulant, ego-driven outbursts.”]

    http://theworstofperth.com/2008/10/23/sorry-day-nurry-day/#comment-11908

  36. And another good outcome for the environment and the economy – Bells have admitted they have no finance for their silly pulp mill:
    http://news.smh.com.au/business/bell-bay-funding-hit-by-downturn-gunns-20081030-5bsr.html

    Said John Gay “”In this environment, the company will be maintaining the project in a position to proceed until funding arrangements are complete.”

    Anyone care to take bets when construction will commence? Put me down for…never.

  41. [Anyone want to know why Government collecting information on civilians is a bad idea?]

    That’s just a dumb statement. They have to collect data in order to make sure we are all paying our taxes correctly etc. What is a bad idea is not encrypting the data and losing it!!!

  42. [That’s just a dumb statement.]

    I’m talking about increased surveillance, giving government bureaucracies more power, removing judicial oversight etc. Things that we’re doing.

  44. GP 793 I’m glad you agree. For us small-L liberals who have been pushed by Howard from neutral to pro-labor, I often think people like Armstrong (and Shana-bolt-man) cost the right more votes than they gain. The sort of people those antics will appeal to will vote conservative anyway, but the swinging voters will be quite put off by that sort of arrogance.

  45. No 794

    Socrates, Mr Armstrong is not a MP or rep of the Liberal Party so it shouldn’t have a bearing on your vote, especially since you read more widely than one Newspaper.

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