Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

  1. HSO,

    There are always the one eyed cats. You don’t know if they are coming in or going out. Apparently, there are a lot of Liberals in the breeding.

  2. Turnbull’s latest attack on Rudd over a supposed leak from Rudd’s office on a phone conversation he had with the President is not only knowingly dishonest (that it came to the murdoch boys via the other side in the USA is revealed already) it is also pretty stupid.

    Hardly anyone will care and it will look like Turnbull is just puffing up again like a noisy toad with little to say except to again be complaining about something and personally attacking Rudd.

    Turnbull should remember their relative trust levels in a previous survey where Turnbull’s was fairly low and Rudd’s good. Any accusations made by Turnbull on Rudd may just as easily cause people to reflect on Turnbull’s own character.

    Turnbull’s continual attacks on Rudd and what he is doing at this point in time may be seen as weak spoiling tactics, when people would prefer he just shut up and let the government get on with its job. More of this and Turnbull may become annoying background noise.

  3. Looks like we might be beginning to see the first bit of action on the frozen funds front.

    [PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd has called on Australia’s big banks to help unfreeze investment funds by buying their securities.
    Speaking at the Business Council of Australia annual dinner in Sydney, Mr Rudd said the banks could play an important role in freeing up billions of dollars worth of frozen investments.

    “Larger and more liquid institutions – including the major banks – could provide liquidity to various market-linked investment vehicles within the financial system by buying their securities at market prices,” Mr Rudd said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24579595-5003402,00.html

  4. Ah, not so fast Steve.

    Everyone the day before yesterday was harping on about how it was the “second biggest points gain in history”. I pointed this out earlier, but some of the biggest gains in history actually occurred at the beginning of the Great Depression.

  5. No, they have survived the day in fine form oz. If it had been any time in the past three weeks, news like that would have driven the Dow down massively. I wasn’t around in the Great Depression, but it is clear this time that only a steady lift in confidence is the only way out.

  6. An interesting story on the infrastructure funding plan here in The Age
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/cabinet-rift-hits-nations-building-program-20081030-5eno.html

    I hope Tanner sticks to his guns. The last thing we need is for all the new money to be wasted on a bucket of pork. See how little good the Darwin – Alice Sprigns railway has done. The money needs to go on the basics that have been neglected for years;
    – upgraded passenger rail capacity in capital cities
    – inter-state freight rail between capitals (Adelaide – Brisbane – Melbourne -Sydney)
    – urban roads to ports
    – water infrastructure and national electricity grid to make alternatives more viable

  7. Also pleased to see that the commitment to the ETS was announced yesterday:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/31/2406259.htm

    I suppose I’m biased on this oen because it will mean more work in my area, but overall it will create more jobs, which may be useful in the next two years. However it underlines the needd for Tanner to stick to his guns on the infrastructure funds I referred to in 862 above. Places like Latrobe valley will suffer from an ETS because it will expose how bad their older stations are. But the solution is not building them a new rail line to nowhere. They need new industries, or migration out of the area.

  8. I tuned into Bussiness Channel earlier to check out the All Ords and $Aust and at the time they had Shaun Callow from Westpac speaking about confidence and said how he wished a certain paper wouldn’t trawl through all the economic data of the day to find the most negative bit (no matter how irrelevent) and then make it their front page news story.
    Hmm i wonder what paper that would be???

  9. Sharemarket confidence in Australia won’t be repaired for a while yet.

    Atm because Kevin Rudd’s unlimited gaurantee on bank deposit, people are taking their money from the investment funds (who invest the money in shares) and putting them into bank deposits.

    Some funds had frozen the withdrawal, because there are too many people who still want to withdraw their money. These people are unable to withdraw until the market settled, however everyone knows the market will fall again once these people sell their shares, so people are still selling off their investments, that is why our market had underperform US/Japan/UK/HK by about 10% in just the last week.

    This is not happening in the US and UK, because they had limits on their bank gaurantee, why Rudd and Swann did not follow their led, despite them acting later than all the other government and created this mess is anyone’s guess.

    Investment confidencein Australia had been destroyed by the Rudd government’s policy, it will take a while for it to be mended

  10. “Sharemarket confidence in Australia won’t be repaired for a while yet.”

    Actually the electorates confidence in the fibs wont be repaired for a while yet either dovif!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/31/2406964.htm?section=justin

    “The assistant general secretary of the New South Wales Labor Party, Luke Foley, has told the court he saw Mr Egan and another man putting the leaflets in the letterboxes.

    He says he approached Mr Egan and told him, “We know what you’re up to – handing out shit sheets on the ALP”.”

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