Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. GP @ 1806 (on previous thread)
    “Turnbull has held his own.”

    that is the problem … maybe he should get his hand off it for a while 😛

  2. Forgive my naiveity, but there’s an awful gap between an increase to 61/39 and a drop to 54/46.

    Something is screwed up somewhere.

  3. Keelty has led to Australians lacking confidence in it’s Federal Police and should have resigned a long time ago to restore the public trust. Rudd should have forced him out by now.

  4. Soc
    As I had predicied on the previous thread the wingnuts are on the rise
    your quote about hawke may be prescient in more ways than one.

    yes I agree talcum has held his own,but his tactics are dubious.
    Is this what the fibs are to become?

  5. Rofl Bushfire Bill, thanks for pointing that out.

    It’s possible that when you toss in the margins of error they meet somewhere in the middle.

  6. [If I owned the newsagency in Point Piper…]

    Point Piper has no newsagencies, nor any shops at all. Totally “residential”.

  7. [ First

    C’mon ShowsOn – you’re better than that!]
    Thank you for recording it forever!
    [Maybe you should change your offensive name! Obviously you tacitly support mass extermination of innocents….]
    Especially Young Liberals wearing glasses.

  8. GP @ 7
    “Maybe you should change your offensive name! Obviously you tacitly support mass extermination of innocents….”

    Maybe you should change your offensive gravatar/logo! Obviously you tacitly support mass extermination of innocents….

  9. And the Preferred PM rating shows that even Turnbull cannot mass the equivelent support from even the Liberal primary vote, like Brenda Nelson.

    Quite pathetic and amusing at the same time really.

  10. [So the LNP % has increased, while Malcolm’s PPM has gone down… good thing Turnbull is such a team man, no doubt he’ll be extatic ;-)]
    He’s hurting the brand!

  11. @15 we don’t know that yet, all we know is the 2pp which is calculated on the pref divisions of the last election.

    Primary vote for either could have gone up or down on only a 1% 2pp move.

  12. [Shame on you ShowsOn.]
    For what!? Why should it bother me if you find things offensive? I thought you were a liberal who realises that individuals pursuing their own good lives are bound to come in conflict with each other.

  13. oneof the things that most forget is that prior to rudd,people voted howard
    partly the man,partly the policies.

    Rightly or wrongly some of the plebs are going to be swayed back to what they feel safe with.

    I expect the polls to stabilise in the 53-56 range from now on

  14. 25 – From the Guidelines Article V:

    [I’m less bothered if things get silly after comment 700 or so. ]

    I think we’ve got there already!! (obviously a hang over from the over 1800!! on the last thread) 😀

  15. The article points out that The Green vote has “stabalised”. Presumably that means it’s dropped down from the high of 13 back to ~9. Which could explain the 2PP drop and possibly even a rise in the Labor primary.

  16. @26

    That’s right, criticise a government minister rather than the Liberal leader.

    The Liberal leader gets polled. The government minister doesn’t. Swallow that huge lump in your throat, realise the Libs are consigned to the political wilderness for a decade, and move on. There’s many hobbies out there!

  17. Have to admit that i am a litle surprised that Turnbulls PPM number didnt drop further. After his behavior over the last week or so he deserved to be crushed like the bug that he is.

    So this means that the majoritory of Rudds increase in support must have come from previously “dont know”??

    If Rudd is picking them up then thats a real problem for the Libs. If they ever want to be back in power they need more than their rusted ons.

    Has anyone got an idea of the “bias” of Essential Reseach’s polls. I mean in the context of how some polls just seem to generally favor one side of politics or another.

  18. [I’d say Conroy is doing much more significant damage to the ALP brand.]

    Not yet – wait till it gets close to legislation. It’s still at testing stage etc. Lot of water yet to go under the bridge. If it really does cause an 86% slow down – fuhgheddaboudit.

    It’ll be a “we tried, but unfortunately the technology is not there yet”

  19. No 31

    Why should I criticise the Liberal leader when is performance has been exemplary?

    The same cannot be said for his deputy, however.

  20. @35

    So exemplary, he can’t even get the same level of Preferred PM support as the Lib primary vote, like Brenda Nelson?

    Quite the lulz.

  21. William in the thread header noted:

    [However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points]

    So all those bitter Young Liberals posting to News Ltd and ABC blogs, still feeling the pain of their election loss almost 12 months on, all their unimaginative and trite repetitions of the “KRudd” epithet, have failed to sway anybody.

    Johnny really dumped a bundle onto them with WorkChoices eh!

  22. Gusface

    Yes I just saw your wingnut reference on the previous thread and have to agree.

    I would be more optimistic for Labor in the long term than this result might show. Turnbull has effectively burnt his bridges on any bipartisan approach to the economic crisis in the past week. So if the guarantees and stimulus package work then Rudd and Swan will eb riding high and he will be left in the cold. If they aren’t then Labor can modify them, because they always said they would respond to circumstances. If there is in the end still a world wide recession including here then they can legitimately point to Turnbull as one of the causes of the panic plus there is the legitimate worry that in a tightening economic, supporting the party that still dreams of workchoices is not a good move for the average “battler”. That and we’ll just have to go back to some good old fashioned Keynsian pump-priming, the right wingers be damned.

  23. [25 – From the Guidelines Article V:]
    I try not to read rules, they break my delicate concentration.
    [The same cannot be said for his deputy, however.]
    You’re an honest man G.P. She is a joke who should be replaced with that 15 year old Greg Hunt.

  24. Turnbull’s figures, like the man, are careening from the sublime to the ridiculous.

    Speaking of the misuse of words: the verb is to careen, not career.

    Once again The Australian has got it wrong. How do their subbies keep their jobs?

    [Five Australians were among those killed when the Garuda Indonesia Boeing 737 slammed onto the runway at Yogyakarta airport, careered into a rice paddy field and exploded in flames on March 7, 2007.]

    Are we in agreeance on that?,25197,24560863-12377,00.html

  25. No 41

    Socrates, the Government has been avoiding Turnbull’s calls for bipartisanship ever since he ascended to the leadership. So it’s not just Turnbull burning bridges.

  26. No 43

    No, I think Tony Abbott should be deputy leader. I actually had quite a good laugh with him on Saturday at a Liberal function.

  27. [Socrates, the Government has been avoiding Turnbull’s calls for bipartisanship ever since he ascended to the leadership. So it’s not just Turnbull burning bridges.]
    Oh dear. Turnbull’s call was basically a demand that he be made P.M. in a war cabinet.

  28. Watching Lateline now and Turnbull is still playing the fear campaign. Rudd and Swan should keep pointing out that he is the fear merchant. First because its true, and second because it will paint him into a corner.

    Swan is holding firm on not caving into the property funds on a guarantee. Good. It is the right decision and it makes him look more consistent and firm. Be compassionate yes (assist those who can’t get their funds) but don’t be stupid. These demands are purely self serving.

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