Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. No 49

    Socrates, telling people to go to Centrelink is not exactly compassionate in a situation where their life savings are frozen. Swan is bumbling fool, a claim reassuringly supported by Alan Kohler.

  2. Soc
    my fear is that rudd will ‘carry the can” for this

    A lot of subliminal damage is being done

    and I know its not rudds fault before anyone starts!

  3. [Socrates, telling people to go to Centrelink is not exactly compassionate in a situation where their life savings are frozen.]
    It sounds like a reasonable short term solution to me.

  4. No 54

    Yes, it is entirely Rudd’s fault. Policy on the run is inappropriate for a government with access to thousands of advisers.

  5. GP I trust you meant No. 47 as I wasn’t particularly disagreeing with you. 🙂

    Agree there are multiple causes of the fraying of bipartisanship, but as they say in the school playground, he started it. I don’t say Turnbull has performed badly as leader of the opposition, but I do think he has pushed teh fear campaign much to hard, and is taking a risk in that. I agree with you on Bishop, as much as I’d say teh same for Labor with Conroy. Both are a liaibility.

  6. No 56

    Yeah, a short term method of putting the budget into deficit! Ah, we’re back to the bad old days of big spending, deficit inducing Labor governments.

  7. BB@44

    I thought carreening was something you do to you ships hull?

    ie: beaching it, hauling it onto its side and getting the crew to scrub, chip and break off the smelly and undesirable growths that have attached themselves to your timbers and are in some cases chewing the essential structure of that which supports you to bits.

    Hmm, maybe carreening is what the Fibs SHOULD be up to at the moment.

  8. [Yes, it is entirely Rudd’s fault. Policy on the run is inappropriate for a government with access to thousands of advisers.]
    But Howard did it all the time! The Border Protection Bill 2001 is the most horrendous example of policy on the run in the history of the Commonwealth:
    http://0-www.austlii.edu.au.prospero.murdoch.edu.au/au/legis/cth/bill/bpb2001212/

    It even contained such hilarious anti-democratic provisions such as Section 10:
    [This Act has effect in spite of any other law.]
    Stick that up your due process and smoke it.

  9. Gusface

    In the short term you may be right, but in the long term I’m not so sure. The longer Rudd and Swan look calm and responsive the better they look as a leadership team. If the rest of the world are in recession next year and we are not, they will still be looking pretty good IMO. The trick now is to manage expectations, and reassure peopel that they will “see it through”. This needs to be a logn term strategy. There are actually some great long term opportunities in the “nation building” category coming out of this. We still haven’t seen what is coming out of the brought forward infrastructure Austalia money yet. Plus the pensioner handouts don’t happen till November/December. There is still some upside ahead of them IMO.

  10. @42/GP

    You’re completely ignoring the point and you know it. Turnbull’s Preferred PM cannot even match the Liberal primary vote (or even coalition primary vote). 2 years out from an election or not, it shows he cannot even match the level of support his party has.

  11. No 65

    I can only reiterate the comments from the greatest Prime Minister of all time, John Howard:

    “We will decide who comes into this country and the circumstances in which they come”

  12. Winston @ 2053

    His boring posts are being deleted.
    [You’re completely ignoring the point and you know it. Turnbull’s Preferred PM cannot even match the Liberal primary vote (or even coalition primary vote).]
    He’s hurting the brand.

    So is Julie Bishop.

  13. [I can only reiterate the comments from the greatest Prime Minister of all time, John Howard:]
    I thought Liberals cared about due process? I can’t believe you are defending:
    [This Act has effect in spite of any other law.]

  14. Dear me, all this angst about minor fluctuations in polls two years out from the next elections. “Polling is not an exact science” (quote, me, 2007 passim). William, could you engrave that in letters of fire at the top of each page?

    All that matters is that Labor is still polling well above the vote it got a year ago. A year into his term, Rudd and Labor are more popular then they were when they were elected, GFC notwithstanding. On that cheery note, I am going to bed and so should all of you lot.

  15. Soc
    more tahn most I fervently hope that rudd is able to exceed expectations.

    just my hobby is reading the tea leaves and at teh moment rudds message is being tarnished by turnbulls anti-economy rhetoric.

    joe public doesnt discern the nuances and i thinka % have drifted -more of fear than logic

    long term I feel the fibs are still gone,just the “fat” on labors lead will be less

  16. One would almost think GP’s AWA stipulates that he is to be paid according to the number of posts he makes to this blog. Hey, GP, does your “agreement” allow you toilet breaks? Even 10 minutes would be a relief for the rest of us.

  17. No 75

    It’s actually good drafting because it prevents complex legalistic arguments as to whether the Act contradicts other Acts.

  18. [I endorse Abbott for deputy Leader.]
    Creationists are excluded from that the prestigious Deputy Leader of the Opposition office.

    But I’ll email him your endorsement as a gag.

  19. @82

    The only thing worse than Abbott as deputy leader is Abbott as leader. He’s been a joke for a long time, furthered at last year’s election campaign, and even more so with his extensive commentary on Nelson/Costello/Turnbull. He’d do well to keep his mouth shut permanently, or retire alltogether.

  20. [No 74

    redwombat = dullard]
    74 was my post!
    [It’s actually good drafting because it prevents complex legalistic arguments as to whether the Act contradicts other Acts.]
    WHAT! The Criminal Code is an act of parliament. If that bill passed and became an act, even criminal actions by the federal police couldn’t of been reviewed by a court!

    COME ON, border protection is one thing, but that act was just extremist nonsense than challenged all the rights and liberties that our whole country is based on.

    I thought you believed in LIMITED government, not giving government agents unfettered power to do absolutely anything they liked while aboard a SIEV, without any chance for judicial review.

    Laws are there to protect the weak as well sometimes G.P.

  21. Abbott is honest about what he thinks about members of his party and his personal beliefs.

    Kevin Rudd is not. He pretends to believe in government for all Australians, but actually believes in censorship for all Australians.

  22. ShowsOn, I have no idea what is going on with the post numbering….William can you shed some light please?

    —-

    That aside, judicial review is guaranteed under our constitution ShowsOn.

  23. [That aside, judicial review is guaranteed under our constitution ShowsOn.]
    But that bill would’ve given unfettered power to government agents to do whatever they liked while operating within the authority of that act.

    That is unlimited government nonsense that I thought a true liberal would be shocked about.

    Absolute power corrupts absolutely G.P.

  24. [The only thing worse than Abbott as deputy leader is Abbott as leader. He’s been a joke for a long time, furthered at last year’s election campaign, and even more so with his extensive commentary on Nelson/Costello/Turnbull. He’d do well to keep his mouth shut permanently, or retire alltogether.]
    I don’t mind Abbott anymore, because he isn’t actually a very effective politician.

    If he left parliament then his safe seat may be handed over to a Liberal with more talent. So it is kind of amusing having him hang around.

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