Newspoll: 54-46

The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46”

  1. Well, there you go, Bird of Paradox @ 800. I thought the story had died, but nooooo, the OO feeds Malcolm again, and the ABC dutifully reports Malcolm’s spin. No, it’s worse than spin, it’s lies.

  2. HSO I think they are disappointed that the ETS isn’t going to be the big drama to set up that the journalists had been led to believe. Just another routine process by the look of it.

  3. steve, you may well be right, but it came right on top of me foolishly having a look at the link BoP provided to Malcolm’s latest effort, so I was already cross. So cross, that even knowing it won’t make a blind bit of difference, I wrote a terse email to the ABC Online lot, pointing out that Malcolm’s views on a story that had been denied by both Rudd’s and Bush’s offices 4 days ago hardly constituted news.

  4. [800 – Turnbull once again over-reaches]
    I agree, especially considering that about 75% of Americans couldn’t care less about GWB anymore.

  5. No 806

    HSO, think about it.

    1. The PM is going to deny it because that would damage his international standings even more, not to mention his overgrown ego.

    2. Of course Bush would deny it – accepting that it happened would make him look even more foolish than he already is.

    Pretty simple. The ABC is well within its rights to report Turnbull’s comments.

  6. Grog, he just can’t help adopting the barrister approach. I’ve enough experience of them to recognise it pretty smartish. Also just has to get something into the news somewhere, anywhere, featuring him.

  7. [2. Of course Bush would deny it – accepting that it happened would make him look even more foolish than he already is. ]
    Considering how foolish he is, it probably happened.

  8. So now the treasury modelling on an ETS has been released, it is now up to the Liberals to again attack. The Treasury modelling must be wrong. The Minerals Council told us so.

    Has Malcolm cried wolf too many times? Will his inevitable attack on the accuracy of the modelling succeed?

  9. Generic Person @ 809, think about it.
    1. The statement made by Rudd’s office was to the effect that the phone conversation was about the G20. It was the reason for Rudd calling Bush.
    2. Bush may well be a fool, however, why would he return a phone call to Rudd about widening the proposed meeting to the G20, if he didn’t know what the G20 is?
    This was all covered 4 days ago.
    Pretty simple. Malcolm’s spin on it 4 days later is not news.

  10. 800
    How out of touch is Talcum? 90% of Australians would be cheering Rudd if he said Bush was a goose. but what does the merchant go and do? he crawls up Bush’s u know what, that is close to treason imho. He’s got no judgement at all.
    maybe he thinks Bush needs a new sheriff ?

  11. Gusface 807: not quite sure which strip – I remember a couple of toff characters that’d be perfect for Turnbull, but I can’t think of their names at the moment. It’s that kind of ridiculous over-the-top hyperbole that makes me think of the mag, though. The (fake) letters to the ed are great too. Pity I don’t have any here, if I did I’d transcribe one.

    Also: I remember comparing Troy Buswell to ‘Baxter Basics’ or ‘Postman Plod’ a few months ago. When there was a new story about him every other week… slightly before he got elected. There’s one strip where Plod temporarily gets the sack for falsely claiming a bad back, and his boss shows him photos of him first lifting a sack of flour, then a couple of other progressively more ridiculous things, finally lifting up a truck full of anvils to get a $5 note from under the wheel. I thought of that one when I heard of the chair-sniffing episode… that’s when it all got a bit cartoonish and over the top.

  12. Why didn’t Greg Sheriden get truly stuck into Rudd for leaking the conversation?

    GS ain’t a huge Rudd fan – and certainly is a big GWB fan, so he would have no quams in sinking the boot in.

    His line:
    [It is impossible to know who leaked the original conversation. ]

    Is a bit odd – it hardly makes The Oz’s reporting look fantastic. The only line form the paper that he really supports as being beyond reproach is:

    [The story as reported said Rudd refused to comment on the conversation. ] because

    [Yesterday, the PM’s spokesman made it clear that Bush knew all about the G20.]

    And GS even puts it in context:
    [Overall, Rudd has done well on foreign policy. He has made some mistakes but he has got the big decisions right. But this is, at the very least, an extremely untidy performance from Rudd or some part of the Australian bureaucracy.

    The Opposition’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Helen Coonan said yesterday: “This is no way to conduct diplomacy with our most important ally.” Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has stayed silent on the matter, which suggests that for all his obvious intelligence, he has little sense of what’s important in foreign affairs, and important to Australia.]

    No doubt Turnbull read that, and so in he goes, boots first, studs up.

    Fool. JWH calling Obama a godsend for terrorists is an insult to all Americans (has Turnbull said anyhtig about that? Or is it still LNP policy?

    This is nothing (and remember GWB is a week from history – lame duckness aside).

  13. Greg Sheriden would only be concerned about Australia’s reputation overseas being damaged. Turnbull seems to not worry about such sensitivities.

  14. Well, I’ve got to say I hope that with the election of Barack Obama, if some fool/s don’t kill him, that the creepy type of Rove politics, might be sidelined somewhat in the U.S., and may therefore be more marginalised here, at least in terms of their influence. It’s been a nightmare.
    It’s interesting, a genuine conservative I actually respect. It’s these neo-con B*^%$#@ds that get up my nose.

  15. SBS news showed Murdoch and Rudd having a natter together at the launch of the aboriginal jobs plan. I wonder if the OO and their lies came up in the conversation?

    It makes you feel good when people get together and things like this happen. Positive news instead of all the nastiness and lies we have been bombarded with lately
    nice words from Noel pearson also

    “Mr Pearson said that for every 10 jobs a hundred flowers would bloom in the lives of indigenous children.

    “We’re going to look back on this … as that moment in the history of the country when government and society made a commitment to people that if you take up the cudgels of responsibility we will guarantee you a job, we will set forth before you a prospect of climbing up in the world, a home, a future for your children, a fair stake in this, your own land,” he said.

  16. “The (fake) letters to the ed are great too. Pity I don’t have any here, if I did I’d transcribe one.”

    Bird I have most of the Viz’s plus the profanisaurus(es)

    my favs are “top tips” “mrs brady old lady” “major misunderstanding” and of course “black bag, the faithful border bin liner”

  17. steve, Turnbull is clearly out of his depth when it comes to international relations and diplomacy. Rudd is several post codes ahead of him. Might be why his stupid out of date spiel about the Rudd/Bush phone conversation makes him sound like such a dill. Actually, come to think about it, maybe the ABC should report Malcolm’s weighed and considered thoughts on international relations and the diplomacy required to achieve results for Australia. Wonder whether Kerry would be interested. Maybe they could get him on Insiders to expound, as he doubtless would.

  18. HSO there was a report earlier on this thread that the Shadow Minister for Foreign affairs has only written a few letters in the whole time she’s been there. Following on from the Googler Robb debacle, it seems that foreign affairs is a weak area for the Liberals as present where they have a lot of catch up work to do.

  19. Foreign Affairs isn’t really an area where elections are won and lost so I don’t think they’ll be putting that much effort into it.

  20. No 825

    Part of the problem is that the portfolio was dominated by Downer for 12 years, which means no other Coalition member has had any real experience with it. That said, Stephen Smith had virtually zero foreign affairs experience either – I’m pretty sure he was education spokesman whilst in opposition.

  21. [ my favs are “top tips” “mrs brady old lady” “major misunderstanding” and of course “black bag, the faithful border bin liner” ]

    Ahh yeah, Top Tips – some of those tips were brilliant. And Biffa Bacon, Sid The Sexist, Roger Mellie, and Terry F—witt just for the surreal weirdness. Modern Parents and the Critics, both by John Fardell… and the same guy that drew Black Bag (I think) did a great send-up of the Famous Five, called Jack Black. A neo-nazi style crime-solving boy from Twittering-on-the-marsh or some such named place.

  22. One of the things that keeps me going back to the Australian is its superior coverage of World news, which is decidedly pathetic in the Fairfax Papers. I supplement that with the Economist which I think is one of the best mags in the world.

  23. One thing that keeps me going back to the List of members on the Opposition side of the Federal Parliament is I just can’t believe how little they do with the opportunities they have been given.

  24. GP is really a whisper marketer for the Economist.

    There are the occasional insightful articles in the Australian mixed up with tedious opinion pieces. It’s slightly better than the rubbish printed in tabloids paired with the rubbish opinion pieces in tabloids.

  25. No 838

    I don’t buy newspapers, with the exception of the Weekend Financial Review. Every other day I read the news online.

    I’m usually on 873/702/630 whilst in the car, mostly 630 RN.

  26. No 835

    Readers Digest has a lot of extraneous crap that I don’t like. I prefer the focus of the Economist. I don’t mind Time in occasional doses.

  27. steve back @ 825. I was thinking I might offer the 3 legged cat as Shaow Minister for just about anything, mostly Foreign affairs. He can say Shaow, and Wah, Wah. Could also double for TV interviewers, as long as he could be convinced not to chase the lizard thingy on his lapel. He might also bridle a bit about the lapel. Maybe a bad idea.

  28. [You’re so unremittingly boring HSO. :)]
    I thought that post was f’ing hilarious!
    [I was thinking I might offer the 3 legged cat as Shaow Minister for just about anything, mostly Foreign affairs.]
    How about “Shadow Minister without Portfolio”.

  29. Nah, the cat’s smarter than Eddixinder, and Vera, he walks a bit funny, but you should see him when he’s chasing something, even if imaginary. Could he be Opposition Leader, then?

  30. I find that the herein aforementioned “Viz” is the only paper worth taking these days. Unfortunately one has to also purchase the “Guardian Weekly” to put it inside in order to be able to read it on the train.

  31. The three legged cat is very sensibly going to slope off to sleep in preparation for his appearance as Opposition Leader. Well, they slope off to sleep any way.
    steve, I’ll take some time this weekend to look at the links you’ve provided, and get back to you if I’ve anything useful to say. Many thanks.

  32. He might not be off to sleep at all Harry he may be sneaking out to sit in a gutter at 3am with a junkie, just to get in a bit of practice for the job?

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