Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.

The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.

UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:

The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  2. Cuppa i agree they were hopeless economic managers. But again in 1983 this country had little foreign debt but as soon as we deregulated the finanical system it began to increase massively… Negative gearing introduced by Labor also caused a massive boom in housing speculation and has made housing unaffordable along with the capital gains measures introduced by Costello as policies which can never be scrapped. Creating disparities in housing ownership and living standards and finally Labor privatised many government owned businesses which have had deplorable industrial reliations records and it made legal casual work which yep does nothing for working people waiting at home for the phone calls whether they will work today with no sick leave or holiday pay. Sorry whilst Labor may have had grand plans they were all about the wealthy and don’t forget it was Labor that reduced the income tax levels from 60 cents in the dollar to 47 for high income earners.. yes Labor.

  4. One would think from reading many of the comments here that Turnbull is a complete dill.
    But his history demonstrates he has extraordinary intellect and abilities.
    The fact that his satisfaction ratings are very positive shows that he is making significant progress. He shouldn’t be written off.
    I think it indicates that much of what he has said has resonated with the public. Of course he’s an arrogant prat, but a very clever one. He has the ability to cut through.
    His offer of bipartisanship on the financial crisis is but one example. How could you disagree with that? Very clever IMHO.

  5. [His offer of bipartisanship on the financial crisis is but one example.]

    But it’s bollocks. Pass the budget, then we’ll talk. If he did that, the Govt would lose one of it’s easiest responses on most issues regarding the Libs.

  6. Winston as a Leftie i agree with you. He should not be taken for granted. His comments today were not erratic like Nelson they were simple and constrained. I can’t stand the man but he has in a way put the government on the ball..

  9. If he passed the budget (“in the interests of stability in these times of financial uncertainty blah blah”) it would be clever. At the moment it’s see-through.

    I don’t take him for granted, but I think his “know it all” style will wear thin.

  10. only caught the end of Bishop on LL but she was all over the place, raving on about the trillions of bad debt, losses or some such thing of overseas banks, and then sorta suggesting that our banks could all go broke because of dealings with those foriegn banks and because of Rudd’s bank guarantee the aussie taxpayer will be up for $trillions of OS banks bad dept??

  12. Turnbull is over estimated by most. It is very easy to be populist when the agenda is made for you, it is simple to take any issue use a negative opposing angle from it – that is politician 101.

    Turnbull had a few basic Treasury leaks and was able to raise some things that were on the horizon in any case but he was unable to be sophisticated with them or to hone them in anyway, unable to turn them into more than a short phrase. For a supposed merchant banker it is surprising he could make so little out of those leaks or create any continuity out of it.

    Like all Oppositions it is possible to find any number of things to gain say on. But it helps a lot when the media carries out and makes more out of it than it is for you giving you more credibility than you actually have.

    Turnbull’s problem is going to be when he has to make his own agenda, bring forth coherent well thought out policies and platforms as he will have to do at some stage. It takes more than being pompous or having an ego and more than just pushing share certificates around or giving grossly incompetent advice. People are mistaking arrogance for skill which he showed he did not have when up against a new and nervous Swan who in the end beat him into inferiority, not a good sign for Turnbull.

    Whilst the media keep giving him bonus media exposure and giving credence to the nonsense he comes out with they will create the impression he has some ability. But he has shown very little so far beyond what Nelson could do.

  13. Rainman has a glass jaw. Republic proved that, loved strutting his stuff, nose in air, until the vote was NO, and then he crumpled and slunk off tail between his legs.
    TKO

  14. Marky, I guess I’m of a like mind to the person who wrote the post I pasted in at number 549. Chaffing that Howard, after a pretty ordinary showing in his earlier incarnation as Treasurer, managed to later acquire a reputation as some master of the universe economic “manager”. Costello too, for that matter, one of the laziest government ministers for many years (criticised as such by some Liberal colleagues), yet he’s gone into folklore as some giant guru!

    It’s easy for a government or party to appear “good with the economy” when the prosperity is raining down in bucketfuls and a mining boom is pouring in billions. But luck can work both ways. If a significant global slowdown had occurred during the Liberals’ time in office, I’ve no doubt they’d have run the budget into deficit, presided over high unemployment etc, as have Aussie governments before them during adverse climates.

  16. Labor wasted its time in office. It allowed the Murdochs and Packers to get their way.
    Howard didn’t waste his time he did what ideologically he believed. Labor did not, other than Health care.
    Howard did what conservative governments always do nothing except help the very wealthy and stuff us up.

  18. [Now if Australia does somehow manage to avoid a recession or has one less severe than elsewhere in the world then Rudd will be able to claim credit for it and in some little part he would be right.]

    But Rainmaker will say it would have even less severe if Rudd had followed his instructions to the letter.

  19. No 564

    Lazy? Oh dear cuppa. You’re off on one of your rancorous sermons again. When Keating was in power, his minsters were flat out turning up to parliament.

  20. I think it is a win situation for Rudd with the public. The public have watched on the TV and in the paper the economic chaos that is happening right around the world, the rush meetings and the drastic measures that have been taken. Then they see their PM take measures to try and protect the country.

    If we end up with a demonstrably less severe recession than the rest then the public will understand that it was due to events beyond anyone’s control and would begrudge Rudd some success in staving off the worst of the effects on them. If they see other western countries doing it really tough then they will feel a little bit better off with their own smaller recession – if it happens.

    The world has moved on since the last recession, people are more informed and more often informed, they see that economics revolves around world events. And if Rudd has any further success at all with China in the interim it will be a bonus for him and us.

    And still I think Labor has a legitimate question to put and issue to put before the public in the LNPs waste of hundreds of billions in surpluses, no small matter. They really need to be bought to account on this.

    The public will hate this huge waste intensely even if they got some tax cuts and pork barreling out it, they will have forgotten and wouldn’t be feeling that much richer for it.

    Just like the more trivial issue of multimillion dollar CEO wages/bonuses makes everyone emotionally really p*ssed off and incensed the frittering away of hundreds of billions of dollars with nothing to show for it by the Howard/Turnbull/Costello crew will also make the public incensed. Especially at this time when the world is in financial trouble and we really need to have such surpluses. Labor should be reminding the public that the Liberals wasted huge amounts of surpluses – it will be an emotive issue in my view.

    And with regard the USA economy I get the feeling they have a further cliff to walk of yet. Hang onto your cash.

  21. No 566

    Marky marky, if you think that only the wealthy benefited under Howard, then you have a wilfully blind.

    Just think, the median wage is ~$50,000. Had Howard not reduced tax, average people would be paying 47 cents in the dollar. Now the overwhelming majority pay just 30 cents. Add family payments, baby bonuses and so forth and low & middle class people did pretty well. Also, under Howard people could find a job. Under Keating there wasn’t any work.

    You Labor hacks really need urgent head checks given your frivolous disregard of facts.

  23. [And still I think Labor has a legitimate question to put and issue to put before the public in the LNPs waste of hundreds of billions in surpluses, no small matter. They really need to be bought to account on this.]

    They didn’t waste anything. Heck at least they got the budget balanced! After 13 years of mismanagement and waste under Keating, the Libs inherited an enormous $96 billion of debt and a massive deficit budget.

    But obviously this doesn’t count.

    And the way Rudd’s been spending lately, we may very well slide back into debt.

  24. [Many analysts believe the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, is slipping into a recession, triggered by a steep slump in housing and the severe credit crisis.]
    http://www.realclearmarkets.com/news/ap/finance_business/2008/Oct/15/retail_sales_plunge__wholesale_prices_fall.html

    I just wonder if the US opened up its residential housing market to foreigners for a few years if it would generate enough cash in flows and help hold up housing prices. Seems that this is going is all going to feed on itself and spiral down deeper.

  25. Keating as treasurer had at least 3 surplus budgets. That’s after fixing the mess Howard, as treasurer,had left behind. The $B96 deficit was manageable and easy paid back, by us tax payers, as was shown by Costello.Then there was a World recession in 1991-2 which of coarse Keating’s Government had to go into deficit to keep Australia functioning. Howard/Costello inherited an economy that was growing and interest rates going down.
    Kevin Rudd (the ALP) has again inherited an economy that had inflation on the rise, interest on the rise and a World economic tsunami heading our way.
    Where is it that your (GP and follow travelers) beloved Howard and Costello are better economic managers than other Australian Governments?

  26. The LNP (Opposition) continue to use a 12 year old Budget balancing effort to hit back at the Rudd Government. How Pathetic are they?
    They wasted there time by not funding the States for important infrastructure building. The funding they gave was in the form of regional and local pork barreling. Now they, the LNP, are blaming the States for lack of infrastructure funding. Yes we do know the story re GST and the States, it was still a decrease in overall funding.

  27. “Geez, after watching that “right of reply” I must say we are so damn lucky to have Malcolm Turnbull. He knows everything. He is so amazing; truly an economic giant, a financial soothsayer.”

    I thought Turnbull was brilliant, the sincerity, the serious direct look into the camera, the hint of a raised eyebrow at the end and there is even a striking similarity in features.

    So much like Micalef

  28. regarding the share market, I just posted this on the US election thread: I found the further share market fall odd last night. While I posted yesterday that the US had finaly admitted it was in recession, this should have already been factored into market prices. It is not news. With all the bank stabilisation programs in place now, there is good reason to believe we will not see a depression, even though a US recession is inevitable. So called “professional investors” are not behaving verry rationally at the moment.

  30. Muskiemp 576
    Reminds me of the “debt truck” another Lib stunt used against Keating. Thing is by the end of their 11+ year stint the truck wasn’t big enough, needed a double engine goodstrain with about 50 carriages to lump it around.

    Didn’t I hear a Lib say yesterday that Rudds $10bil was too much an overreaction and it’d just be **** up against the wall? hmm another 700 drop on US stock market seems like we got a way to go yet.

  31. As someone quite rightly pointed out yesterday, the Libs were planning to spend at least $10 billion on stupid initiatives like cutting excise that would have no beneficial effect on the whole economy but simply line the pockets of oil executives.

  33. great news OZ.
    what a difference a day makes

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2392341.htm
    NICK XENOPHON: Well, the answer is (laughs) yes, I’ll be voting no.

    NICK XENOPHON: I actually ran into the Prime Minister yesterday for the first time. It was just a chance meeting.

    LYNDAL CURTIS: So, not a formal meeting yet.

    NICK XENOPHON: No, a couple of words were exchanged. I think the PM said ‘Kevin’ and I said ‘Nick’ and we shook hands and that was the extent of the conversation but it could be the start of a beautiful relationship.”

    A beautiful relationship indeed!

  34. Turnbull only got one line in the Australian article as well, poor bloke.

    “We still think it’s a bad measure”. I think something like this can be beneficial for the Government. They’re working with a broad range of people and opinions (The Greens to FF) and getting them to agree ffs! Meanwhile the Opposition’s shouting from the background “WE STILL DON’T LIKE IT” but no one can hear over the congratulatory backslapping going on between the Government and the cross benchers.

  35. wont be a happy QT for Rainman today lol more lectures about Greens, Idps being more economical responsible than him!
    hope Kev gets stuck into him about his cheap political shot that Rudd acted to slow (we were ist on interset rate cut first with bank guarantees etc, ffs,)

  36. Doing my bit to boost the discretionary spending economy, I wne and got my car washed this morning. Hence, I had a rare read of the printed version of the SMH while waiting for the chamois wallahs to do their thing.

    In it there was a story I’d otherwise have missed (as it was buried inthe on-line edition) and photo about a woman who had experienced extended labour in giving birth to a healthy, bouncing baby boy a couple of days ago. Only problem was that by the time she’d dropped the deadline for the $1,000 had passed. Was she pi$$ed off? You bet!

    [LEE-ANN BENNETT was 10 hours into a day-long labour when she lost the money – Kevin Rudd’s Christmas payment, the $1000 available to dependent children born before October 15. Tuesday slid into Wednesday and the money slipped away.

    “We were looking forward to it yesterday and today it’s taken off us,” her partner, Dave Tiney, said, conceding that $1000 “would make a huge difference to us but I wasn’t banking on it when we got pregnant with him”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/benefit-slips-away-during-daylong-labour/2008/10/15/1223750129808.html

    Then why whinge about it Lee-Anne?

    Hard to see what the point of the story was… was it that Rudd should extend the deadline by 24 hours? Hard to see that working, as it would give rise to yet another crop of whingers, staggered by 24 hours. Apply it to women in labour at the time? Ditto reasoning for not doing that. It just seemed that someone at the SMH realised there’s be some post-mifnight births around the hospitals in Sydney and sent the reporter out to trawl for hard luck stories.

    No matter that the baby wasn’t stillborn in a toilet, or wasn’t genetically defective, or otherwise disadvantaged. He was perfectly healthy. But this was no excuse for Mum not whingeing about it, and no excuse for not running the superfluous, stupid story. What’s the SMH going to do? Take up a collection? I doubt it.

    [Both she and Mr Tiney said better access to child care and flexible working arrangements would be preferred to the one-off payment.]

    [Jenny King, the acting nurse manager for women’s and children’s health at Westmead Hospital, said families were aware of their entitlements.

    “They know what it is as soon as it hits the airwaves,” she said.]

    I bet they are. Hard to believe, but Lee-Anne has something to be thankful for…

    [Nursing all 5.2 kilograms of her new son, Ms Bennett was happy with the $5000 baby bonus she will receive anyway. “If you work it out, that’s like a dollar per gram, or something.”]

    “Work it out”? I bet she’s done that too. I’m waiting for the pensioners to start squealing.

  37. Conroy has just announced that ABC and SBS Directors will now be appointed through an independent review process with applications open to the public.

    They’re introducing legislation to ensure that appointments will be made on merit.

    Former politicians or political staffers will not be allowed to be appoint. And when appointing the Chair, the PM will consult with the Opposition leader. And they’re re-introducing the staff elected director. I’m typing this as I hear it, lol. You can watch Conroy’s speech on the ABC.

    How exciting. So all of Janet Albrechtsen’s sucking up has been for nothing ahahahaha.

  38. He also released a discussion paper, apparently instigated by the 2020 summit, that SBS and ABC will be having closer ties together. No specifics though.

  39. Oz

    I’d nominate Bushfire Bill for director of the ABC,if he stood of course.

    Citizen journalism meet citizen democracy.

    A new dawn emerges for this country.

  43. Piping Shrike 579
    That would explain Wall Street -they might have been factoring in ripping off the taxpayer via a Paulson bailout rather than having to give up equity. No sympathy of course.

    But if that is the reason for Wall Street, it still doesn’t explain our market following them down like a bunch of lemmings. Nothing has changed for the ASX. Threats of limits of exec pay (hurray!) will actually boost returns to shareholders, so logically that should put share prices up. Its still an irrational emotional response IMO.

  44. [ Its still an irrational emotional response IMO.]

    I became quite angry about it this morning, when I heard the bunch of lemmings that inhabit the ASX floor “investors”. Too nice and proper a term, by half, for them. A bunch of scardie-cats rooted in the herd mentality (“A herd of cats?” I hear youse ask… don’t worry about it).

    They run this way, then that, then back again, like a bunch of drunks trying to stay upright on a floating log. And yes, whereas the good news of earlier in the week was relegated to story #4 in the Business Section, today’s write-off occupies its proper place as a screaming banner.: “Bloodbath” on market.

    We hear each morning what the Futures Market has set the coming day’s price to be and it follows as a school of dogs follows a herd of cats. Self-fulfilling prophecy, anybody?

  45. [Bushfire Bill you might get given a govt car!]

    As I am on 9 demerit points with two years to go (bloody speed cameras!), I may end up needing a driver as well.

  47. It’s time to restore the independence.
    “The new appointment process will ensure that all future appointments to the ABC and SBS boards are conducted in a manner that fosters independence, transparency, accountability and public confidence.”

    “Advertisements in newspapers tomorrow will call for applications for two positions from each board and Senator Conroy says the applications will be assessed by publicly available selection criteria.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2392865.htm?section=justin

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