The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.
UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:
The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.
I am perfectly happy for Turnbull to appear on TV as much as he likes, each time he does he sets a hand grenade for himself.
How long can he keep ignoring his past statements?
BH,
When was the last time Governments bought in to Banks.
Do you have evidence about Tanner or is it just point scoring sleaze by you?
If the commercial networks televised Turnbull’s reply, it isn’t fair. I remember Simon Crean giving a reply in opposition to the war in Iraq (in which he was proven to be totally correct) and he was totally ignored.
Actually Crean had a legitimate reason to reply since he was actually *replying* to what Howard said. Not pretending to be bipartisan and trying to score political points at the same time, like Turnbull.
TP – Unfortunately RN is only station in this area with any information. Commercial stations (2) are woeful and local ABC is nothing to write home about.
Gave up buying newspapers ages ago – not worth the money and am thankful for the bits that PBers put on here. it saves me checking the websites too often.
I find the comments here more illuminating than the MSM journos anyway – Bushfire Bill is pure class. Was he a journo at some stage in a previous life?
William, Possum and Shrike are fonts of knowledge too so I think readers on this site are well served on a variety of issues.
If times get tougher then good comments will help a lot of us.
The Piping Shrike @ 494. I suspect, though have no way of knowing, that the incessant bleatings from the Opposition, for release of Treasury advice that led to the gov’t.’s moves, reveals either, as Bushfire Bill has proposed, a middle level leak from Treasury, or in my view, no one has got much of a clue what the hell is going on. Seriously, every one has been caught out by revelations about the shenagigans that have been going on internationally.
malcom’s playing air guitar without the air.
Desperately trying to keep the Libs in the game.
So does the ‘equal time’ rule really apply outside elections campaigns?
Rudd makes an announcement about a natural disaster (cyclone, flood etc) and the opposition gets a right of reply?
Maybe we better give the opposition equal funding to answer all government advertising.
Turnbull better get used to irrelevance. He’s going to have to put up with it for a long time.
ABC Sydney had Turnbull on right before the 7pm news.
I agree with ruawake, the more people actually get to see Turnbull, pompous wally that he really is, rather than be missled with all the BS adulation from the MSM and ABC Lib stooges the better.
But you’d think that if the revised forecasts were still pretty decent, Rudd would release them just to shut the opposition up.
Though this is a better way to starve them of oxygen and leave them looking like they have no clue, a la HSO’s comment.
Harry (506) quite true, but the problem is that the government has now acted. This could leave them exposed. For example, if China still holds up (which is quite possible) and so does Australia, then the opposition can claim that Rudd blew the surplus out of panic with no Treasury advice. That might work or not, but that is what I think Turnbull is hoping. Keep your head down now but position yourself if things change. I think for Turnbull, it is wise.
GG – Not sure what the Tanner comment is. If you meant ‘Turnbull’ and my take on his ethics then I was thinking about his leaking of stuff re Kerry Packer in the dead of night, plus the HIH stuff, and recent flipflops. I need to be convinced about him. Have a couple of kids in Canberra and they are sure Turnbull is getting leaks from someone inside – not always quite correct, but close enough for an ex merchant banker to work it out.
Re Banks – I think Banks in Victoria and SA were bailed out by Governments in past years. I only hope that Rudd is setting the insurance stake very, very high in return for guaranteeing them now.
TPS,
Turnbull is being disingenous as you would expect him to be. The plan is to be totally in favour of the Government’s initiatives until it is convenient to ditch them for political gain.
Yep, Rudd is doing badly. He should know with certainty what every other mere mortal can only estimate. If Australia is going to fall into recession? If Rudd does not know with certainty, Turnbull benefits. Fantastic!
BH,
Sincerest apologies. I totally misread your comment as applying to Lindsay Tanner.
Sorry.
[malcom’s playing air guitar without the air.]
Nice line GG. Actually I think Turnbull playing pocket billiards, as my Year 10 Maths teacher used to say of the dopey lads in his class.
The Liberals spent an inordinate amount of time in Question Time today raving on and on about “paying off Labor’s 96 billion dollar debt”. Inordinate, because it’s an old story, and surely what is important is what is happening now. There’s a new, much more relevant story unfolding than that old Liberal Talking Point.
It seems they want to go on endlessly congratulating themselves for actions from the annals of history, while the real history, the real groundbreaking stuff, is unfolding around all our ears as they, Liberals, speak.
Running in parallel to that line of rhetoric is a new question, asked by them more than once today: Can the government guarantee the budget will not be in deficit by the time of the next election?
Surely one take-home fact from this developing mess is that these are uncertain times, uncharted waters, as the saying is going. If anyone a couple of years ago had predicted that the ardently-free market US government would be well on the way to nationalising banks and other finance industries in 2008, they’d probably have been laughed out of town.
As the rollercoaster of events has shown, it’s anybody’s guess what might happen next week, let alone by the time of the next election – an eternity away with events quickening the way they are.
It is obviously possible that the government will have to eventually run a deficit to counter adverse economic trends. Governments of bigger economies than ours are having to do it. The Aussie government ran a deficit last time there was a recession, and the government before that (Howard, Treasurer) did the same.
If this is as bad as some are predicting, and the government does have to run a deficit as part of their duty of care to the economy, I can just see the miserable Liberals shaping that up as ” an election issue”, complete with endless more reruns of the line “last time they left office with a 96 billion dollar debt; this time they have once again run up a budget deficit”. Their current rhetoric indicates they are sowing the seeds of that line of attack right now.
If the Aussie economy does join the world’s in going to shit, you can trust the Liberals to be in there, shit-peddling and throwing shit around just as hard as they can. Shit, after all, is all they are good for lately.
“Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has accused the Government of acting too late to protect Australia against the effects of the global economic crisis.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2392197.htm
So is he saying we’re all doomed ,it’s too late now, and unlike Kev and world leaders he Rainman knew all along that this world financial crisis was going to happen but being the shrinking violet that he is decided to keep it to himself lol?
What a tool!
Are we sure this wasn’t his work on Bolts blog
“Many of us predicted that Rudd would destroy our economy. But under no circumstance did we predict that he would destroy the whole capitalist system world-wide.”
(posted by cuppa on “rockin over world” thread)
Turnbull is fast becoming the Uri Geller of economics. He can move interest rate with his own opinion. He can foresee what other do not.
Was just up at the local Vintage Cellars buying a quaff, and ran into one of the regular wine samplers there in what passes for the only “bar” where you can have a chat and a wine in Beecroft. As we sampled a nice little Merlot (a bit too dusty for my liking, BTW), this chap – who is a seniorish public servant in the defence Dept. – became quite angry over the non-disclosure of Treasury advice in QT this afternoon.
It was a good question: why not reveal Treasury’s idea of where the economy is going?
There were three answers to this to my mind…
1. The advice is so bad that they can’t reveal it without causing a panic.
2. Nobody really knows what’s happening, much less what’s happening down the track, so why risk a panic by idle (and probably wrong) speculation?
3. It’s none of Turnbull’s business. He’s not the government.
We adjourned to our respective homes still friendly after another glassor two. But it got me thinking: which altrernative was right? Of the three, (2) springs to my mind as the strongest contender.
Turnbull said on national TV today, these astonishing words:
[“With the benefit of hindsight, government should have acted a lot earlier,”]
Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? “With the benefit of hindsight…. The corollary of that statement is:
[“With the benefit of foresight, government should have acted a lot earlier.” ]
That’s if they had a crystal ball. And there’d have been a few other world leaders wanting to borrow it, because they all failed to act, under Turnbull’s definition.
On another failure to act, when Turnbull, as a member of Howard’s government, failed to act on pensions, he claimed later on that things suddenly went belly up after the election, and that at the time (May 2007) there had been no need to act on pensions: the pensioer’s plight was unforseeable. Whither “hindsight” in the pensioners case?
Rainmakers never take responsibility for the crook tips they spruik to the mugs. They only take credit when they win. That’s the essence of the scam.
vera,
[“Many of us predicted that Rudd would destroy our economy. But under no circumstance did we predict that he would destroy the whole capitalist system world-wide.”]
I have seen that comment “cut & pasted” on at least 6 different sites. Variations of Lib talking sheet comments are being constantly plastered on every available site, especially ABC sites with comments.
The staff in Liberal HQ are electorate offices are working overtime at present. It gets pretty boring after a while seeing the same rubbish being sprouted by the same old suspects all over the net.
The Piping Shrike @ 511. I would have thought the obvious. The gov’t thought they had to act. It was not some sort of stunt; they, the gov’t and we are exposed to the most appalling combination of global economic and climate change disaster imaginable. This is no longer business as usual. Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t get it. Though, if he supposedly had the smarts he’s supposded to have, you’d have thought he would have.
Amazing isn’t it, all year Brenda and then Rainman demanding the govt spend billions on fuel tax and pensions and that was OK, but now Rudd has spent same billions on pensioners, families etc the fibs start screaming about blowing the budget.
Well, the Newspoll still says 55 vs. 45 TPP, make of that what you will.
Yeah, when you think of it, $2 billion for the fuel excise cut (admitted by Turnbull as purely a gesture), $4 billion on pensioners, $2 billion blocked in the Senate on alcopops and a further couple of billion blocked on Medicare… and you have your $10 billion.
The First Home Buyers’ Grant is a Liberal invention, so they can’t be complaining about that canthey?
So what are they complaining about?
I don’t think things are that bad Harry. Besides a one-off cash hand-out will make little difference even if it was.
But hey, why knock it. Money is honey.
What are they complaining about? Why, Rudd – make that KRUDD – trashed the world economy, of course. He and the Labor Party. The world ended when the Fibs lost the election. (Well, their miserable world, that is).
[So what are they complaining about?]
Impotence.
kvetching is a Lib. strong point, Bushie. That’s what they do. Endlessly. Repeatedly. On and on, without the melody. No talent for singing or poetry, that’s their problem.
The Piping Shrike @526. I think things are that bad. We’ll see how it turns out, no doubt, but I think Rudd is being as straightforward as he can be.
I am hoping there will be more addresses to the nation.
We dont do it enough.
Rudd and Malcolm should have party politicals too like they have in the UK.
Anyway I like having Parliamentarians speak to the public in this fashion.
Three Cheers for Stephen Harper…another Tory Government in the world that is keeping on!
Absolutely spot on Vera @ 523. Btw, top name for Talcum – Rainman. Classic.
Bushfire, the Libs are complaining about lump sum payments. (I can hear McAvaney again) “can you believe it”.
Also if Obama wins there will be a great chance obscene CEO payments will be restricted. OO HOO, go Obama.
[Rudd and Malcolm should have party politicals too like they have in the UK.]
Glen, as a Yes PM fan, I would’ve thought better of you than that!
The media is not only meant to keep the government honest but also not let the Opposition get away with rubbish. The Turnbull idea that Labor might be too late is of course nonsense since the meltdown was sudden and, Rudd acted early. The media should take Turbull to task on this. But they of course probably wont, being mostly liberal party sympathisers.
We got rid of Howard but there remains his bitter grieving lovers in throughout the murdoch media and ABC – who will probably refuse to force the Liberal party and Turnbull to be honest and credible, whilst attacking the Government with Liberal party talking points.
Now if Australia does somehow manage to avoid a recession or has one less severe than elsewhere in the world then Rudd will be able to claim credit for it and in some little part he would be right. This is what worries Turnbull – Rudd has acted appropriately and might actually achieve something. Like that business executive said ‘Turnbull seems like the only person that wants Australia to go into a recession’.
I am still waiting for Labor to bring up the wasted decade – the decade of record surpluses from the mining boom that the Howard govt with Turnbull wasted. How many hundred billions was it? Howard/Costello and Turnbull failed to plan for beyond the mining boom (to resurrect the pre-election campaign ) and left Australia exposed. People will relate to it and scratch their heads as to where is that money?
[I am still waiting for Labor to bring up the wasted decade – the decade of record surpluses from the mining boom that the Howard govt with Turnbull wasted.]
Actually I think they have brought that up about every QT this year!
eg on Tuesday:
[Mr TURNBULL (2.20 pm)—My question is to the Prime Minister. I refer to the Prime Minister’s and the Treasurer’s repeated claims to have built the surplus. Does the Prime Minister agree that the government’s ability to make the payments announced today are in large measure due to the coalition government having paid off $96 billion of debt, established the Future Fund and, year after year, run budgets in substantial
surplus?
Mr RUDD—The government is committed to responsible economic management. If the previous government was committed to responsible economic management, it would have done something to invest the $390 billion which it had in extra parameter growth in budget revenues coming off the back of the resources boom in this nation’s long-term infrastructure needs.
That would have been setting Australia up for the future. What would have been setting Australia up for the future as well is as follows: it would have been investing
in the productivity needs of the Australian economy for the future; it would have been dealing with the nation’s health and hospital infrastructure for the future; it would have been investing in all the productive capacity and social needs we need for the future; it would have meant using the $390 billion which was realised on the back of the resources boom responsibly and effectively for the future.]
Aussie 3-0! Japan and the Uzbeks 1-1 at HT
[$390 billion which it had in extra parameter growth in budget revenues coming off the back of the resources boom ]
This is the sort of thing they need to remind people of outside of QT whenever they get interviewed. The mining boom rained $390 billion and they wasted it, did nothing to protect Australia’s future, left Australia dangerously exposed and has left to it up to the Labor government to build protection for Australia against recessions to do the job they failed to do…blah etc. $390 billion dollars of Australian’s money wasted, nothing to show for it…. blah and usual rhetoric.
We’ll still lose.
They were not interested in setting up the country for the future because they were too preoccupied trying to set the Liberal Party up for the future (permanent future in power being their ideal).
What has Australia got to show for their almost dozen years in office? Crumbling infrastructure, among the world’s highest debt levels, and the world’s fourth highest Current Account deficit. A soured international reputation for children in gulags and a Bush rectal parasite.
I agree TP. Hammer it again. And Again. And again.
I liked this from Rudd also on Tuesday (in responce to a Hockey question)
[What I would say to the opposition is: we stand proudly by our nation-building agenda. We intend to build the nation’s infrastructure; we intend to deploy the capital of the nation in building future economic growth. We will build the nation’s roads, build the nation’s ports, build the nation’s railways and build the nation’s high-speed broadband because it is in the long-term interests of this economy that we do so and it supports economic growth on the way through.]
Good words. But he needs to follow through.
[We’ll still lose.]
Such comments deserve a yellow card William!
4-0 now 😉
Bishop on LL – sounding incredibally stilted. And she is praising PJK. lol NOw there are strange bedfellows
Cuppa, whilst i agree with you in regards to the last 12 years, some of these problems also are a result of the government before this one. Negative Gearing and Financial deregulation have ignited this and the Libs were just adding to it.
Must state even though i dislike the man, Turnbull is right, early in the year it was inflation and a skills shortage , remember for months it was a skills shortage now it is trouble times ahead… What a muddled government we have.
If we are to get out of the mess the government will have to borrow money because the private sector will be unable to do so. If we had more public companies we would have more jobs and possiblities instead we will have greater problems.
Turnbull to me so far is doing very well as leader he is being reasonable and cool and for Labor to carry on about he being for or against it is being stupid- can’t someone criticrise or have an opinion. Must agree though that his view about seeing the books is silly. As the Liberals would be doing exactly the same.
Quesiton are pensioners and carers going to get a weekly increase in payments or is this a one off? If so I do not support it.
[Must state even though i dislike the man, Turnbull is right, early in the year it was inflation and a skills shortage , remember for months it was a skills shortage now it is trouble times ahead… What a muddled government we have.]
You seem to be forgetting what happened in between
Question on LL and 7:30 report etc. Who decides who gets on? Does Bishop ring up and say she wants on, or does the ABC do the asking?
MM – what’s wrong with a one-off now, and a weekly increase next year after the review is done?
To have governed during one of the most spectacular periods of global prosperity ever, with the added benefit of a domestic mining boom, and then leaving office with practically nothing tangible to show for it … that’s the Liberals’ and Nationals’ undeniable record.
Reminds me (in a way) of this message from a Sydney Morning Herald blog on 29 October 2007:
[“I’m chaffing at the fact that people believe that “historically” Howard is the better economic manager.
History actually says that Howard is a very poor manager – in 1983 he handed over rising inflation, rising interest rates and a dysfunctional industrial realtions system, despite having control of the Senate.
In 1996, he inherited from Keating, falling inflation, falling interest rates and a workable industrial relations system.
Now what is he handing over? Rising inflation, rising interest rates and a dysfunctional industrial relations system and once again he’s had control of the Senate.
Couldn’t manage his way out of a paper bag I suggest! History will judge him and I don’t think it will be very kind.”]
http://blogs.smh.com.au/federalelection/archives/2007/10/campaign_cheer_or_campaign_cha.html?page=fullpage#comments
As Bishop (who does not know how to answer any questions) says Labor was against Lump sums but hay presto it is now for them. Would rather have a weekly increase than lump sums that way people can plan their living arrangements in a better way.
Nonetheless i suppose a handout is not so bad to people who are some of the poorest in the country- change my mind on this one..
Bishop hopeless.. When will a politician answer the questions instead of muddling around it all the time… Only seen two politicians on Lateline of late who actually talk straight Joel Fitzgibbon and Bob Brown the rest make lives so hard for themselves.
Did you watch Four Corners on Monday night Dario, you would have seen that these probs were occurring in October last year and were getting worse.