Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.

The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.

UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:

The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. It’s why I’m so snarky today.

    Now look – I have nothing against giving the poor more possums, but fair dinkum, let me tell you the process left a bit to be desired!

  9. [Jamie Dunn (Agro) has made himself at home at Zinc FM, based in Noosa. :)]

    And has apparently been signed to present 4BC Brisbane Breakfast next year, which of course is part of Fairfax and is a Talk station – imagine Agro interviewing Rudd 🙂

  13. They should have a special prison to lock up all brokers up for a few days when they get out of control. Like keeping the cat inside so it doesn’t do any damage to the wildlife. Or make them start the day with a valium.

  14. Yes, the stock market has fallen again today. Last Saturday I predicted that the market would have another losing week. The experts know what they are doing. If the market falls, there is a reason for it.

  16. You’d think the “experts” would have learned to stop calling the bottom, but every time there’s a gain there they are again.

    Something I learned from The Daily Show – Four of the five biggest one day percentage gains in history all occurred during the Great Depression. So the stock market going up a few points for a day means absolutely nothing.

  18. Oz, there are experts and there are experts. You have to be more right than the average more often. It’s like picking winners at the football or the races. You cannot be right all the time, only right more often than wrong.

  19. “The Government has been under increasing pressure to release the economic details of its spending plan but will not do so until next month as part of its mid-year economic review.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393314.htm?section=justin

    What pressure? A few limp questions from an impotent opposition? Did Rat Man release the envelope for his Murray Darling rescue? I don’t think so.

    While we are on MYEFO how many nfp (not for publication) were in the last one? How many billions of dollars out was it on the NT intervention?

  20. How was Julie Bishop last night.

    “If you remember back in 1992, when Keating introduced a stimulus package, he also gave a 750 page document detailing what lead him to this decision!”

    I thought Keating was the evil pinko who left Australia with a debt (SHOCK HORROR) not the model of economic sensibility the Opposition seems to be portraying him as.

    Opposition: “We hate Keating!”

    Opposition: “Be more like Keating!”

  21. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24506554-12377,00.html
    Rudd to feature in TV finance special

    October 16, 2008

    “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd is set to appear in a TV special to give Australians advice about their financial problems and his $10.4 billion financial security package.
    Minding Your Money: An Audience With the Prime Minister will air this Sunday on the Channel 7.

    It will feature Mr Rudd answering questions from a studio audience of more than 100 people representing all walks of life from pensioners, first-home buyers, minimum-wage earners, families, employers and employees, Seven said.

    “He spent more than $10 billion in one day to boost our economy and help families struggling to cope,” Seven said in a statement.

    “Now the PM will respond to issues raised by Australians who have been directly affected.”

    A last-minute money special with David Koch aired last Sunday, netting the network almost 1.5 million viewers.

    The show featuring Mr Rudd will air at 6.30pm (AEDT). ”

    Why isnt Malcolm Turnbull invited, he is the Opposition Leader and he is more of an expert on economic matters than Swan or Rudd??

  22. “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd is set to appear in a TV special to give Australians advice about their financial problems and his $10.4 billion financial security package.

    No, no NO!

    He’ll be on a hiding to nothing if they will really have him giving financial advice. Not only is he unqualified to do so, but AFAIK, he has never claimed to be psychic. With the speed that things are changing what may be excellent advice now could be very dumb tomorrow.

  23. See #617?

    “Why isnt Malcolm Turnbull invited, he is the Opposition Leader and he is more of an expert on economic matters than Swan or Rudd??”

    Because he’s not the PM? And it’s not his package to explain? It’s also not a debate?

    And what makes you think he’s an “expert” on economic matters? He’s a lawyer and an “investment banker”. That’s a far cry from being an “expert” in anything.

    In fact, the way he’s handled himself and some of the statements he’s said, like “With the benefit of hindsight the Government should have acted earlier… they should have acted earlier” show he has NFI what he’s on about.

  24. So is Pies Akerman quoting Julie Bishop or is Julie quoting Pies?

    “When the last Labor prime minister Paul Keating released his first economic program, Working Nation, at the end of February 1992, the ambitious program was accompanied by enough tables and charts and graphs to gladden any bureaucratic heart…”

  25. Predicting the bottom of the market today is about as difficult as predicting the Melbourne Cup winner before Saturday’s Caulfield Cup. If I had to make a prediction right now, I reckon the ASX will fall to as low as 3000.

    Suncorp Metway are paying yearly dividends of $1.07 and have closed at $8.10 a share. They are not exposed as much to the global crisis and if weather patterns stabalise over the next couple of years and, more importantly, if the management shows us they are remotely worth what they are being paid, the stock possibly provides the most value in the finance sector of the market. But like predicting winners with anything, there are never guarantees.

  26. http://news.smh.com.au/national/senate-calls-for-terror-law-review-20081014-50k5.html

    “An independent expert should be appointed to continually review the 44 pieces of anti-terrorism legislation enacted since the September 11 attacks, a parliamentary committee has recommended.”

    That bill was put forward by two Liberals. So they want to review there own legislation…? 7 years after they introduced it? And 6 of those years they were in Government? Bit weird.

  27. Glen do you remember how Latham couldn’t even run the Liverpool City Council? Well Turnbull couldn’t even value FAI insurance. Would you seriously trust him with the Australian economy?

    Turnbull = All Perception – No Substance

  28. [Why isnt Malcolm Turnbull invited, he is the Opposition Leader]

    Glen, m’boy, you answered your own question.

    The public don’t really give a fig about what Turnbull can do or say about the current economic situation. True, there’s plenty he can say, but nothing he can do.

    He is not the co-Prime Minister, or the Deputy Grand Pooh-Bah or the Vice Chief Cook And Bottle Washer. He is the Leader of the Opposition, an Opposition which is poorly regarded by the country (if every poll since Rudd’s election is anything to go by).

  32. ltep

    There was so much mis-information about the $10.4 billion package that it is a good idea that the PM clarifies things.

    ABC online reported that the “Chrissy Presents” were going to “Single Aged Pensioners” and that carers would get $1000 just to name one bit of crud.

    I have heard people complaining that they get family tax benefit B so they will miss out, when they cannot get B without first getting A. etc etc.

    It is something the PM has to do, because the media cannot or will not do it properly. 🙁

  34. Itep, people feel to need reassured that our PM is fully aware, informed and on top of the crisis. As long as that opportunist Rainman keeps away, sweet.

    Ruawake, Turnbull is all spin and all perception with absolutely no substance. 😉

  36. Still mourning for Work Choices

    Rio Tinto was the most aggressive user of AWA’s

    Rio Tinto spokesman Gervase Green said the company’s decision not to negotiate directly with unions had worked well.

    “We’d prefer direct engagement with our workforce and have done so for 16 years.

    “The benefit of that can be seen in the fact that up until last Saturday we had not lost one day in industrial disputes and that’s through lean times and good.

    “To go through the CFMEU (Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union) is to differentiate between classes of workers … and we do not believe in differentiating between our workers,” Mr Green said.

    The last comment is quite funny, we don’t differentiate but we want everyoneon an AWA.

    Life of Brian “You are all individuals”

    http://news.smh.com.au/business/rio-tinto-wont-negotiate-with-strikers-20081016-5293.html

  38. Rio Tinto wrote “Work Choices” they employed Freehills to draft it. It cost the Liberals govt.

    If they think that the Libs are going to help them in the current economic climate they have rocks in their heads.

    Negotiate with the union members, they have no choice. 🙂

  39. So, will the Rainmaker demand equal time on Channel 7? Gotta say, the Ruddster knows how to work the room, and I mean the whole room. And he’s never going to fall for the individual advice type thing, it’ll be all about how the package applies to them, Mayo.

  41. Actually, ruawake, you can turn a draft into pure evil with a bit more offering of just another wafer thin piece of what you really want to do to the working class. It worked.

  42. John Clarke and Brian Dawe taking the piss out of the “Malcolm Turnbull’s idea” line both Turnbull and the media have been running.

    Ahaha these guys have always been absolute geniuses. If you aren’t watching, you’re missing out.

  44. One of the most annoying things about the Howard years was that you couldn’t watch any bit of news or listen to the radio without hearing him commenting, even if it was something completely unrelated to governance.

    Why Rudd would want to overexpose his brand this early is beyond me.

  45. Just wondering. Have any bludgers seen any of those poor, pet food eating, strippers, or otherwise badly done by pensioners who recently graced our tv screens thanking the heartless Mr. Rudd or the Government for what they are about to receive.

  46. There probably so stunned about the fact that they have no flimsy argument to support to their conservative conduit, the Libs, that they’ve just kept their mouths shut.

  47. Itep, I’m not sure why you think that a $10.4 billion stimulus package in the context of the global financial crisis is “completely unrelated to governance”.

  48. I was referring to Howard’s appearance on news stories that covered just about everything… a story about apples? Get some footage of John Howard discussing the benefits of eating an apple a day… it was just irritating.

    I have no real opinion on the ‘stimulus package’.

  49. What was this comment in relation to then:

    “Why Rudd would want to overexpose his brand this early is beyond me.”? I assumed it was connected to the previous paragraph. My bad.

  50. “Opposition demands McKew step down over contract ‘conflict’ ”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393450.htm?section=justin

    Except there was no contract conflict.

    “Under the ministerial staff code of conduct, Ms Forrester was required to divest herself of any shareholdings related to Ms McKew’s responsibilities.”

    Except the contracts referred to were not Max the Rat Slayer’s responsibility. They were Julia Gillard’s. Max works for PM&C not Education.

    Pyne should not believe everything Michael Ronaldson “leaks” to journo’s related to State Liberal people in SA. 😉

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