Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.

The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.

UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.

UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:

The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

760 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. This is slightly off-topic, but I’ve just been reading Andrew “I am a degree in climate science and therefore know better than everyone else” Bolt’s blog and I’m wondering how much “professional” bloggers like him actually get paid?

  2. enjaybee, what I have seen is a whole lot more whinging, along the lines of ‘it’s not enough’. I did a bit of a scout around most MSM sites earlier on out of interest, and, honestly, I’ve never seen so much whinging. I’ve no idea what these people are going to do when they need to use their own resources to live or survive. I think my worst nightmare is that the Oz population is now a bunch of whining, demanding, unrealistic, selfish and self-centred, developmentally stuck, consumers. With zero compassion for anyone else, to boot.

  3. [I think my worst nightmare is that the Oz population is now a bunch of whining, demanding, unrealistic, selfish and self-centred, developmentally stuck, consumers]

    Nah, personally I just think it’s all the disgruntled Liberal voters still stinging after the election. They’re kicking up a stink at anything Rudd does, like much of the MSM. Fortunately the polls show that most people aren’t in that boat.

  4. And remember, they’re pensioners. I still think the “Give us more money” as just an excuse to legitimise their support for the Liberals.

  5. Hope you’re right, Dario, but FFS, they just go on endlessly. Agree about the polls, though. Just not moving for the Rainmaker,or the Coalition. Not going to either, in the short term, at least. The Rainmaker having the fundamental problem of being bound by party policies he doesn’t believe in, and having to espouse them. Not to mention being a pompous git.

  7. I like HSO had a scout around other blogs too and the script for Lib trolls to push seems to be that the unemployed and students missed out and because of meany Rudd they are now all homeless & eating the pensioners dog food.

  8. HSO @ 651. Lets face, it those that are still whinging are rusted on Rudd haters. However I think that there would be a good percentage of swinging pensioners (voting wise that is!) who would be grateful for the handout and would now see the Rudd government in a different light. Having said that though, the over 65’s have always been difficult for labour but maybe there is a now a chance for this group to be won over.

  10. I dont think the markets will settle down until after Obama is elected. Our market is moving in sympathy with the US.
    I think Rio Tinto is crying wolf inorder to keep BHP at bay.

  11. I don’t think Obama’s election will have the slightest effect on the market. Unless you’re simply using his election as a timestap. Even then I think it’s going to take more than a couple of weeks.

  12. I think we better get this straight. In no way is Turnbull an authority on economics or finance. And the only time he had to make an important determination he made a massive stuff up which had nasty consequences. I suspect Turnbull’s economic/finance abilities and understanding are mostly limited to how to push various bits of paper around the ASX to make money. But, making money in a continual booming market is not that hard, if you have money to start with.

    I doubt that Rudd will give any specific advice at all and will deal in generalities and might talk on the government’s policy attitude to some things. Or he may have received specific questions which he has run past the experts in Treasury to provide some qualified answers.

    And why would Turnbull be invited? Who is he? This not election time and this is not politicking. And who would care what the Opposition had to say? They have no power to do anything and have no intrinsic understanding on governments attitude to things finance.

  13. In 1932 the biggest and most frightening crash took place after FDR was elected in November but before he was inaugurated in March. That’s why the inauguration date was brought forward to January from 1936. When FDR took office he immediately announced the “bank holiday” and made his “fear itself” speech, which stemmed the collapse in confidence. The power vacuum between November and January might be a dangerous time in 2008-09 as well.

  15. Enough with the Turnbull understands business bull.

    Turnbull was a journalist, a lawyer and a banker. None of those professions produces anything, they merely feed off the enterprise of others.

    As for matters relating to the stockmarket and business conditions in general, never listen to anyone who talks out of their pocket or out of their backside. At the moment there’s plenty of both and many of them are in the media.

  16. If Rudd performs as well on his Channel 7 gig as he did on the 1st Q&A program, then watch the next lot of polls take a nice little jump,

    Turnbull & the Libs won’t have anything that can counter this and I bet at this moment they are wondering just what they have to do to nail him down and get some traction.

  19. vera,
    Rudd might be slow by Turnbull’s standards, but he has proved to be quicker than the 2nd most important economy in the world. Not quite sure what is happening in the US at the moment, the worlds biggest economy.

    By my standards though, he is doing all right so far.

  20. Turnbull is going to be slightly miffed at missing out on this little get together too.

    [ PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd will meet with business and industry leaders tomorrow to thrash out further ideas to protect the economy against the global financial crisis.
    Some of Australia’s biggest companies will be represented at the roundtable organised by the Australian Industry Group.

    Bosses from miners BHP and Xstrata, accounting firms DeLoittes and Ernst & Young, American Express, property group Leighton Holdings, IBM and Microsoft and News Ltd are expected to attend.]

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24506987-462,00.html

  21. enjaybee, as you say they’re rusted on Coalition voters. Not sure there are any or sufficiently many of them to make a difference in terms of votes, nor am I convinced that this is what it was about.

  22. Let’s just clarify some massive misconceptions about the stock market. Stock market analysis is based on opinion about the performance of a company and future conditions and circumstances which may affect that performance.

    It can be compared to opinions of tipsters relating to horse racing or football. The better the judgement, the greater the chance of success. People do not always agree. In volatile times such as we are experiencing with this global crisis, it is completely expected and normal that the market will act in a volatile way accordingly.

  23. Of course, Rudd is all spin and no substance, hasn’t done anything since the election and all he seems to do is form committees to investigate things.

    Far better than scribbling on the back of envelopes or lying back in a hummock.

  25. Scorpio so do we call him Superainman now?
    he’ll be bitching he didn’t get an invite to these talks next i suppose.

    “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he will talk to the nation’s business leaders tomorrow about new ways to tackle the global financial crisis.
    He will talk to about 100 business and industry leaders tomorrow in Sydney about what else can be done.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393409.htm

  26. Rudd is simply the PM of the country and Leader of the government doing his job and, has come across world economic hell and doing what the PM should do.

    The media ought to see it like that instead of always trying to make everything a political issue of competition between the government and the Opposition. The should put this flag waving Liberal party cheer leading and simply get behind the government of the day and inform the people as they should be informed.

  27. [I think the power vacuum up to November has not been that helpful either. Not convinced there will not be one after January either]

    Lets be honest, there’s been a power vacuum in the US since the mid-terms in 2006

  30. “Stock market analysis is based on opinion about the performance of a company”

    Then the analysis will always be wrong since stock prices are based on whether the stock price will go up or down, not necessarily related to the performance of the company. There’s the disconnect between “business” and “finance”. Investors invest in companies because they see growth opportunities for that company. Stock brokers buy stock because they think the stock price is going to go up, for whatever reason. There’s a subtle difference.

    And yes, the stock price is far more disconnected from the actual performance of a business in most cases than most think. The “volatility” point has some traction but it doesn’t explain significant variations between price on an hourly basis even during normal market times. Business’ do not release performance results upon the hour.

  31. It matters not if the Treasurer or PM or whoever is an expert in a particular field – you would hope they always make their decisions based on expert advice and data rather than rely on their own ‘expertise’.

  33. In a fit of curiosity, went and had a look at the outtakes of Aggro. Now if we had Aggro on the ABC Board, Bushfire Bill for sure and BillBowe, what might happen?

  34. re 679.

    Relating to your first paragraph, Stocks are valued. Future price movements are factored into that valuation. Re read my 672.

    As for your second paragraph… variations between price and a release of business performance. I’m not even going to go there.

  35. TPS @681. Told you yesterday, it’s really, really bad, in global financials. It hasn’t rained in Victoria, or most of it for the last 3 months. We’ll need a desalination plant pretty much as soon as it can be built, or we won’t have enough water to drink. It is that bad. Sorry, but the prognosis is truly terrible.

  37. enjaybee @ 645-

    Just wondering. Have any bludgers seen any of those poor, pet food eating, strippers, or otherwise badly done by pensioners who recently graced our tv screens thanking the heartless Mr. Rudd or the Government for what they are about to receive.

    Never mind what there are about to receive, they have already received $27/week (singles) so far this year at a cost of $7.5bill. and I haven’t heard much, if anything, in the way of acknowledgement let alone thanks, mostly just even more shrill whinging.

    Dario @ 676 –

    Lets be honest, there’s been a power vacuum in the US since the mid-terms in 2006

    If you want to be really honest, there’s been a vacuum of epic proportions within the Oval Office since 2001. Mostly, between the ears of the incumbent!

  39. Of course if you read the blogs, the Rudd Government is very slow to react to events.

    Not so the punters thoughh.

    [FIRST home buyers captivated by the lure of $21,000 in new government grants have stormed builders and real estate agents in search of bargains.

    Large numbers of first homebuyers are expected at inspections on the weekend.

    Real Estate Institute of Queensland chairman Peter McGrath said he had spoken with a half dozen agencies who said they were getting more inquiries about homes, especially at the lower end of the market.

    The mini-boom was the most tangible sign yesterday that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s $10.4 billion economic rescue package was taking effect.]

    [Renewed interest came as one of the NSW’s largest developers vowed not to increase property prices to take advantage of cashed-up home buyers returning to the receding property market.

    Landcom marketing general manager Robert Sullivan said they would continue offering up to $16,000 worth of rebates on new house and land packages on top of the increased first home owner grants – giving up to $37,000 extra cash to new buyers.

    “We will not be making any changes to rebates we’ve currently got on the market,” Mr Sullivan said.

    “Customers out there have been … looking around and shopping around for the best deals. It would be very dumb of the market to pass on the new grants in a price increase.”

    For a year developers have been offering their own cash rebates to home buyers to stimulate the market and with Mr Rudd’s increased grants, buyers in two minds have been spurred to act.

    Cornish Group sales manager Colin Lake, offering 1200 house and land packages in Camden’s new Spring Farm estate, said they had been flooded by approaches from first home buyers.]

    http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24504122-5013951,00.html

  44. On next Insiders
    “Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull on the Government’s response to the financial crisis. Also, results of the ACT election and NSW by-elections.?

  47. Here is a useful graph of economic growth in Australia. Clearly we are headed for a slowdown, though the stimulus will hopefully stop it going negative. Note that the economy had already peaked and was starting down at the time of our November 2007 election.
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Symbol=AUD

    By comparison (you can check other countries on the same site) Germany and UK were already in recession prior to the past weeks market turmoil. So we are still in comparatively good shape.

  48. #692

    One economics professor is attempting to predict the rate in 2010… Since no economists or analysts have been able to predict events on a day by day basis, I wouldn’t put too much fath in long term predictions.

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