Westpoll: 57-43 to Liberal in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of 400 voters which shows Colin Barnett’s newly elected Liberal government with a 57-43 lead over the Labor opposition. Barnett is rated preferred premier by 57 per cent of respondents against 16 per cent for the new Labor leader, former Treasurer Eric Ripper. The West also reports that the Labor member for Mindarie, John Quigley, is considering quitting politics and moving to the eastern states after the message “J. Quigly (sic) child molester” was sprayed on his house and boat. Quigley links this to his pursuit of police officers involved in the wrongful murder conviction of Andrew Mallard, which he successfully campaigned to have overturned. The 9.5 per cent margin in Mindarie can largely be put down to Quigley’s personal popularity, and Labor would face a tough challenge in the event of a by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

31 comments on “Westpoll: 57-43 to Liberal in WA”

  1. Honeymoon etc.

    Along with not making any contentious desicions or announced any policies except for overturning proposed recreational fishing bans. It’s still very early days though with Parliament not even sitting since the election, and thn only for the opening with no plans to sit and pass any kegislation such as Truth in Sentencing etc.

  2. Does the 2PP figure mean anything in WA anymore? Wasn’t there an unusually high percentage of Greens voters that gave the Libs there second preference? That would be considered an anomaly but the polls usually calculate 2PP based on the preference flow at the last election so a significant amount of Green votes would be distributed to the Liberals though that is unlikely to be the case at the next election.

  3. 2PP really only stops when two things happen:
    -A significant proportion of seats have a minor party or independent in the top two, or
    -Optional preferential voting.

    WA doesn’t have either of those.

  4. I understand that but I’m wondering if the 2PP figure is taking 30 or 40% of The Greens vote the Libs, as opposed to the 10 or 20% it used to.

  5. Oz

    The split of votes came from the last election 1 months old, unless you think the voter who voted Green and preference the Liberal the last time had change their mind,

  6. I’m saying it was quite an anomaly in terms of Greens voters switching preferences around and it reflecting a particular, one off situation. I don’t expect it to be the same again.

  7. Probably most of this is due to the loss of Carpenter. I’m not from WA but from what I gather people respected Carpenter personally even if they thought his government deserved a kicking. I can’t imagine Ripper will be that popular – Treasurers normally never are.

  8. Ripper was a bad choice but this is a predictable poll result. It will be interesting to see whether Labor have a good plan of action to get back into government. Unlike the Federal Opposition I would expect the WA Opposition know that the election result wasn’t a mistake and people won’t ‘come to their senses’.

  9. “Unlike the Federal Opposition I would expect the WA Opposition know that the election result wasn’t a mistake and people won’t ‘come to their senses’”

    Nearly all new Oppositions are guilty of that, especially when they’re tipped out by a narrow margin and/or in unusual circumstances as this one was. Still, with tougher economic times ahead they’ve probably got a good chance of a quick comeback, as do the Liberals at federal level.

  10. Hmmmm, this is good news a popular Liberal State Government is not going to cause any problems for Liberal Marginals in Stirling, Cowan and Swan in 2010 one thinks.

  11. No 12

    Well now that Rudd has opened the flood gates on spending with universal bank deposit guarantees, infrastructure spending etc etc, it won’t be long before we’re plunged back in Keating-sized debt holes. 😛

  12. “Opened the floodgates”?

    You mean the universal back guarantees that we’re never going to have to pay out? And the ones that will actually make money?

    The infrastructure spending is not new – it was in the election platform, it was in the budget and the Government’s been banging on about it for months.

    But hey, at least you’re going against the Liberal talking points of the week – today they’re position was to support the bank guarantees and infrastructure spending, according to their “Shadow Infrastructure Minister”. A Liberal minister for infrastructure!?!?!? Oxymoron.

  13. If Eric Ripper is leader at the next State Election, Barnett will win in a landslide.
    He is an unattractive leader.
    Keating like Debt holes? What next.
    It is time to spend and borrow if the Federal Government did nothing the hole would be like a quarry. It s options will be limited in years ahead though because surpluses will be eaten up by unemployment benefits. Their are only two ways out of this mess government spending, regulation and ownership. Actually three.
    Watching a guy on lateline state that governments are no good at running things. Could he please tell us how we got in this mess… yep it was the private sector going mad… When will we learn, the period between 1945 to the mid 70’s created a boom in the world and why significant government ownership and keynesian policies and regulation. It is to understand the word profit.. and put simply what has happened is that profit has gone mad here.
    If our governments owned things the options would be greater to do things instead they no longer do. Hence major probs ahead and possible many companies being nationalised.
    Keating borrowing you say.. Instead of borrowing he let private sector go crazy. Negative Gearing, superannuation and a deregulated financial system have fuelled a liquidity crisis. Whilst he and Costello are living nicely on government pensions and handouts pathetic.

  14. Exactly Oz. Western Australia will be the beginning though for many Labor State Governments in the years ahead, Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia will all go next time, due to impending economic slump. Federally i am unsure.
    The State Governments will find it difficult to borrow and deliver big projects, and some may see some of private public deals fall apart. Sorry to draw a gloomy picture but we are heading into a serious economic crisis.
    Go to this website for further info http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

  15. Allan Carpenters problem was his personality. I never saw him smile. He got the chop because economic times are starting to bite in WA, hence the housing slump in prices.
    I also think he ran a arrogant and stupid campaign, now who was the stupid dill who ran the campaign.

  16. Barnett will be itching to go to an early election while Ripper is still leader, but he’ll have been spooked by the fate of Carpenter and Henderson. Unless he can manufacture some deadlock in the parliament- which itself is very risky- he’s probably stuck with his rag-bag coalition for close to the full term.

  17. People are now referring to the Barnett (Minority) Govt as the “Claytons Govt”. The Govt you get, without actually having a Govt. These buffoons are no more ready to govern than my 4 year old!!

    What have they been doing for the last month other than re-decorate their new Ministerial Offices and blame Labor (in advance) for their failings of the next four years?!? Probably out the back inventing the policies they havent had for the last 8 years no doubt….Time to get on with it Barney!

  18. Barnett can’t take a trick, can he?

    On the Ryde thread people are offering excuses for the government not fixing transport after 13 years. Poor old Colin gets dumped on for not single-handedly solving all the state’s problems after one month!

    Tough audience….

  19. Transport is never fixed. It’s an eternal whinge issue. As is education and hospitals. In 4 years time people will be whining the Liberals are doing nothing about transport, education and hospitals.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *