US election minus 48 days

A new thread for discussion of matters American, as the polls return to level pegging following the Republicans’ convention bounce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “US election minus 48 days”

Comments Page 3 of 12
1 2 3 4 12
  1. The whole Palin thing is a naked ploy by McCain to upset the liberals in the Democratic Party by making a liberal gesture with a non-liberal woman…

  2. She’s a fast learn, TP. By the time of the debate she will know the GDP of Senegal and the middle name of the President of Turkmenistan. And she will make Biden look like a boring Beltway hack, which he is.

  3. A bit of Palin seems to have rubbed off on McCain, ie her penchant for sacking people who make her look bad. And just like Palin, McCain would do it illegally. That’s why “Yup Yup” won’t front at any investigation into her role in Troopergate, despite saying she would co-operate.

    [Republican John McCain slammed the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) for being “asleep,” saying that if he were president, he would fire Chris Cox, the chairman of the SEC since 2005 and a former Republican congressman.

    McCain said the SEC has allowed trading practices, such as short selling, to stay in place, that turned the “markets into a casino.”

    “The regulators were asleep, my friends,” McCain said. “The chairman of the SEC serves at the appointment of the president, and in my view, has betrayed the public trust. If I were president today, I would fire him.” ]

    Yet again demonstrating his lack of understanding, it has been pointed out that the POTUS can’t fire the SEC chairman.

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

  4. The basic fact about US elections is that if they are about national security the Repubs usually win, but if they are about the economy the Dems usually win. McCain has to hope that the crisis blows over in the next few weeks so he can get the narrative back onto security issues. I doubt that will happen.

  5. Adam

    Palin is going to look like a school kid who crammed for an exam, trying desperately to avoid looking like a “fail”. Her Gibson interview was pathetic. She floundered like guppy in a fishing net. When they scrape even 1 cm below the surface, pure ignorance will shine through.

    But I don’t think she (or Biden) matters any more. It’s back to Obama (Dem) vs McCain (Rep) as it should be.

  6. [But I don’t think she (or Biden) matters any more. It’s back to Obama (Dem) vs McCain (Rep) as it should be.]

    I agree with that – if she still mattered Obama wouldn’t be back in front. I’ll admit that maybe she has kept the race close – during the DNC it was 50-42, imagine if he had chosen a boring nobody? We’d all be talking about who will be Obama’s Sec of State…

  7. I don’t think race will be an issue for many voters except in places the Dems can’t win anyway. If Obama loses it won’t be because he is black, it will be because the Repubs succeed in persuading the key demographics that he is (a) an elitist liberal (not hard since he is an elitist liberal) and (b) too risky in terms of national security (I don’t think they’ve made that case yet).

  8. The Piggeries of Wall St.

    Securitisation – Pig with lipstick. still a pig.

    Hedge fund – Pig can fly

    Leverage – Pig on steroid. 30 times its normal weight. prone to self implosion. it did.

    Derivatives – GM Pig. Is it a pig? a hippo? a bear? nobody knows. Nobody understands.

    Short selling – Pig that was sold before fattening and market day.

    Private equity – Specialising in liposuction of the fat Pig until it is anorexic

    Margin lending – dreaming the pig

    Investment bank – without the piggy banks

    Debts – Sarah Palin without the pig

  9. Adam 111

    I agree with your comment on the basis of the election. It will be bad for McCain. This won’t blow over quickly. The markets are settling down now but the bank mergers and buyouts alone will see tens of thousands of direct job losses from what were very bloated industries, plus flow on effects. The US reporting season in October will be a sea of red ink. If the Fed gets things back under control (and regulations are passed to stop this recurring!) the US economy might start recovering by this time next year. I think it will take them longer to get back to high growth though, because they are heavily in debt and some countries will now be more reluctant to loan them capital. I think Obama will win now; Hillary would have romped in.

  10. oh geez guys, can we just talk politics.

    [I think Obama will win now; Hillary would have romped in.]

    I concurr, but we’ll have to just consign ourselves with an “if only”.

  11. McCain would never have been in the race if Clinton had been the Dem candidate.

    If Obama wins it will be because of the great piece of good luck that this crash represents for him. Otherwise McCain would still have been ahead and the race would’ve been his to lose.

  12. The fact that Hilary would have beat Obama in the primaries if the Dems used a winner of the state takes all the votes like occurrs in the election, suggests to me she would have done as well – and probably better than BO come November.

  13. Adam

    I don’t think this crash is luck. It was almost inevitable. I have been saying the US was in/was going into recession since this time last year, as have many economists. The republicans should have seen this coming. I think Romney could have handled this situation better for them. Then again, they needed McCain to distance themselves from the Bush style of politics.

  14. It’s luck that it happened *now* (unless you think the gnomes of Wall St did it on purpose to get Obama elected, which seems unlikely).

    Romney is an even worse phony than Obama. Plus he belongs to a polygamist pagan cult so none of the fundies would vote for him.

  15. I, for one, am very confident that Governor Palin will have all the answers to the looming recession and will be able to explain why deregulation is still the way to go. Once someone tells her she that Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae weren’t actually owned by the Government and were private enterprises, it’s all going to fall into place and she’s going to be dynamite. 😉

  16. Yes I put my hand up for membership of the Hilary fan society too. Her campaign strategy had mistakes but I still thought she was judged on her husbands past rather than her present skills. IMO she has the brains and experience to do the job, regardless of who her husband is. American really is a sexist place and I thought she got some very rough press coverage.

  17. IMO Hilary needed to bite the bullet and go for it in 2004. She planned it too nicely to run in 2008. She was the Dem’s best candidate in 04, so why wait?

    Ancient history I know; but it was just too calculated.

    BO didn’t wait for 2012.

  18. [Adam’s going to kill me for saying this but here goes. Ron Paul.]

    Yeah from the little I’ve heard of him I’m a Ron Paul fan, but exactly what credentials did he have?

  19. Grog

    Agreed; Bush being reelected in 2004 was a tragedy for the world.

    Regardless of the good/bad fortune of the timing, this collapse in the US economy will have other consequences that bother me. Assuming Obama wins now, he will be in a very difficult situation. Economically he will have very little room to move (much worse than the incoming government here). The world badly needs a deal on climate change, whch will involve some pain for the US auto, power and coal industries. Some of those are located in precisely the states that are stagnant now. It will be very hard to pesuade them to accept a change that might cost jobs, especially if the government now doesn’t have the money to spend to fund new jobs. Hopefully if Obama wins decisively he will have the political capital to initiate change anyway. But it would have been much easier if the US still had the cash to change painlessly.

  20. Adam
    Presume you saw my Senate voting links info in #99 showing Biden’s “yes” vote to th ‘deregulation” Bill

    McCain in Senate 2006 quote: “The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s states that Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator’s examination of the company’s accounting problems”

    The Center for Responsive Politics, a non partisan watchdog organization , listed all Congress politcians who have received money from both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac …th big two lenders of these SUB PRIME mortgage loans

    There list covers 19 years cumulated , the top three beneficiaries have been:
    1 = Chris Dodd……. $165,400
    2 = Barack Obama.. $126,349
    3 = John Kerry……. $111,000

    McCain got 21,550

    Obama managed 2nd place on th list in just a few years against ALL other 550 odd Washington Congress politcians with many there for whole 19 years

    Given th 2 Fannies combined 5.1 trillion debt th US government effectively hav taken over with there demise & there crazy sub prime lending practises that partly caused this crisis , there 2nd place for there donations to Obama suggest he was regarded by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack ‘as friendly’ and not pro there ‘regulation’ (unlike McCain who suggested there regulation in May 2006 proposed Bill)

    To suggest to totally ignore these ‘donations’ and there relativity to other pollies would be strange In ‘oz’ I suggest Obama would (rightly) be in firing line over th Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack lack of there ‘regulation’in 2006 and th coincidental donations linkage …but then we not fully deal in bullsh.it in ‘oz’

  21. Socrates (122)

    What makes you think the markets have settled down now? All the evidence suggests they will be very volatile for several months yet – maybe longer. .

  22. No 133

    Ron Paul is an inspiration. He’s the only congressman with a consistent voting record for smaller government and for upholding the constitution. I particularly relish his policies pledging to abolish half the government bureaucracy, income taxes and ending unending wars.

  23. Socrates @ 134, I would say that those who didn’t vote for Hillary in the primaries had a few things in mind.

    They honestly thought Obama was the better candidate or they didn’t want Bill #2 (rightly or wrongly, that was how many Democrats who didn’t vote for her perceived her). I voted for Obama as I thought he was the better candidate however I know people who fit into the latter category (didn’t necessarily think Obama was better but didn’t want Bill anywhere near power again).

    I suggest that Bill was her albatross as opposed to her sex. Bill was a very polarizing force and still is in the Democratic Party. You either love him or you hate him. For this very reason, he was sparingly used by Kerry in the 2004 campaign.

  24. TP et al

    When the Federal Reserve asys it’s going ti inject $1trillion into the economy, does that mean it’s going to dish out lots of loans? If it’s going to “invest” the money, do they have that kind of money lying around the Fed or do they “devalue the currency” to come up with it (in effect print a $1 trillion dollar note).

  25. [do they “devalue the currency” to come up with it (in effect print a $1 trillion dollar note).]

    I don’t think they will go the Pauline Hanson / Zimbabwe path on this one

  26. Ronster

    It’s reality check time.

    1. McCain Missed The Vote For Final Passage Because He Was Campaigning In New Hampshire. John McCain missed the final vote on Phil Gramms banking deregulation bill because he was campaigning in New Hampshire. [NPR, Morning Edition, 11/5/99; S. 900, Vote #354, 11/4/99]

    2. McCain: I Have A Long Voting Record In Support Of Deregulation. The St. Petersburg Times quoted McCain at a Senate Commerce Committee hearing as having said, I have a long voting record in support of deregulation. [St. Petersburg Times, 6/5/03]

    3. McCain: I Dont Think Anyone Who Wants To Increase The Burden Of Government Regulation And Higher Taxes Has Any Real Understanding Of Economics. During a McCain Town Hall in Inez, Kentucky, John McCain said, When we come out of this recession and we will because I believe that the fundamentals of our economy are good Sen. Clinton wants the government to make the decisions for you on your health care, I want the families to make the decisions on their health care. I dont think anyone who wants to increase the burden of government regulation and higher taxes has any real understanding of economics and the economy and what is needed in order to ensure the future of this country. [McCain Town Hall in Inez, Kentucky, 4/23/08; emphasis added]

    Time to stick a fork in him. He’s done. 😀

  27. Let me see if I have this straight . . .

    * If you grow up in Hawaii , raised by your grandparents, you’re “exotic, different.”

    * Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you are a quintessential American story.

    * If your name is Barack you’re a radical, unpatriotic Muslim.

    * Name your kids Willow , Trig and Track, you’re a maverick.

    * Graduate from Harvard law School and you are unstable.

    * Attend 5 different small colleges before graduating,
    you’re well grounded.

    * If you spend 3 years as a brilliant community organizer, become the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law professor, spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, become chairman of the state Senate’s Health and Human Services committee, spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of 13 million people while sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran’s Affairs committees, you don’t have any real leadership experience..

    * If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, 20 months as the governor of a state with only 650,000 people, then you’re qualified to become the country’s second highest ranking executive.

    * If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2 beautiful daughters, all within Protestant churches, you’re not a real Christian.

    * If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you’re a Christian.

    * If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.

    * If , while governor, you staunchly advocate abstinence only, with no other option in sex education in your state’s school system while your unwed teen daughter ends up pregnant , you’re very responsible.

    * If your wife is a Harvard graduate lawyer who gave up a position in a prestigious law firm to work for the betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up to raise a family, your family’s values don’t represent America ‘s.

    * If your husband is nicknamed “First Dude”, with at least one DWI conviction and no college education, who didn’t register to vote until age 25 and once was a member of a group that advocated the secession of Alaska from the USA , your family is extremely admirable.

    OK, much clearer now.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 12
1 2 3 4 12