US election minus 48 days

A new thread for discussion of matters American, as the polls return to level pegging following the Republicans’ convention bounce.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

574 comments on “US election minus 48 days”

Comments Page 1 of 12
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  2. Dario, i think it was him/her from the previous thread where he/she posted that it was very difficult for a black person to be elected. That has been my point consistently about Obama. I still dont think they will elect a black man to be POTUS. I said it before, happy to be proved wrong.

  4. I agree with Finn – i just don’t think the South and Mid-West in particular will be hospitable to a Knee Grow when push comes to shove – the primaries is very different to the actual election

  5. Finns,

    From EV, this election is going to be decided in the Mid West. Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and the Virginias. Nothing new there. But conservative, blue collar which ain’t Obama’s strnghts.

  6. Well a lot of us preferred Clinton to Obama but that is beside the point now. Its not only momentum that is favouring Obama – current events are embarrassing his opponent to an increasign extent. It will get worse before November’s poll too. A lot of US companies have to report results in October, and the news will be bad leading up to the poll. McCain is Elmer Fudd when it comes to economics, and Obama and Bidne will (and should) attack him on it continually. the message is simple: McCain voted for all of Bush’s failed budgets and policies and his policies are more of the same – electing him will be steady as she sinks. The democrats should win from here, but they are going to inherit a country in terrible shape in every way.

  7. yes, you may be right – but how many of those southern/mid west states ever go to the Democrats?

    If he can get Ohio and Pennsylvania that should do it… (he says boldly and without support!)

  10. To win, Obama needs to win the Kerry states (including PA, MI and NH) – which currently looks fairly likely – and then win either:

    Ohio; or

    Colorado and Virginia; or

    Iowa and Virginia; or

    Nevada and Virginia; or

    Colorado and Iowa and New Mexico

    The last scenario looks the most likely atm, although recent polls show Obama retaking the lead in Virginia…

  11. Socrates,

    With great respect, McCain is saying “hold my hand, I’ll guide you throught the storm”.

    Obama message is, “I’ll change everything”

    If you you have a $300k mortgage and your job is under threat, who would you support.

  12. You just have to wonder where the US Government is going to get all those trillion of dollars from, to bail out all those failed capitalist roaders, the masters of OPM.

    * Between the Chinese and Japanese, they already hold 70% of its Treasury bonds
    * It has deficit that is bigger than Ben-Hur
    * It is fighting two wars that are costing trillions
    * The devastation from Katrina, Gustav and Ike
    * The crumbling and outdated infra-structures and industrial production capabilities
    * A POTUS election that is like soap opera with change you cannot believe from both sides

    All we need is a big earthquake that wipes out half of Kalifornia, then the mighty USA is gurgling down the utube drain.

  14. Swing Lowe

    Iowa is in the bag, as is New Mexico. Frankly, if we lose either of them we’ve been pulverised and have no hope. I think Colorado is the litmus test. Anything else will just be icing on the cake.

  17. Have to say the hacking into Palin’s emails shows the gutter level of US politics in general. I’m not saying the Obama camp had anything to do with it (am sure they didn’t), but it just makes me like the Aussie version of democracy better.

  19. GG, The I’m a War hero line is good, but it goes better when the guy looks like a hero, not like someone who wouldn’t be able to cope marching in a Veterens Day Parade.

    He is really showing his age. And I know most of his ailments are due to his POW time; but perception wise he looks like getting through 4 years will be a struggle… if only the GOP had gone with him 8 years ago.

  23. Grog,

    So says you. This is a US election. 300 million of teaming humanity. If you think how McCain looks by your interprtation is going to make a fig of difference, then you are a dreamer.

    But, that’s all right.

  24. Latest Daily Kos tracking poll:

    OBAMA 49
    MCCAIN 43

    I’d given up on Obama winning North Carolina and Florida, I’ve been more confident about his chances in New Mexico and even Nevada(because of the Hispanic vote)

  25. It looks like Israel will have a female PM. BTW: anybody knows what is happening with Ariel Sharon? he’s been in coma for a long time now.

  28. Just to prove I’m not the only one who thinks the US economy is playing into Obama’s hands, here is an excerpt from a story in the SMH:

    “The latest CBS News-New York Times national survey showed Obama leading McCain by a margin of 48 per cent to 43 per cent – a swing of seven percentage points in just a week.”

    GG 11 one of my high school teachers said that in a debate the easiest way to win was to convince someone that there were only two choices, and to make the other choice seem unacceptable. The trick is to deceive people about the nature of the choice. Hence your choice is part of the McCain spin. Its pretty desperate though. A more accurate analogy would be this:

    You are trapped in a storm and asked who do you trust: the old fool who said it would be blue skies, or the guy who warned you to take an umbrella? Vote democrat and buy an umbrella.

  30. I enjoy this discussion, but I ask the particpants, whether they have a job, a mortgage, are married and have kids.

    Because they are the type of people who will decide the election.

  31. Suggested campaign slogans for McCain:
    “Steady as she sinks”
    “Don’t worry, if you lose your house you can stay in one of mine”
    “I’m not worried about the economy – I already qualify for the pension”
    “The republicans have gotten you into this mess and if you keep voting for us we’ll get our bankers out of it”
    “Prosperity is overrated”
    “Blessed are the poor” (good for the religeous vote!)
    “The truth may set you free, but it won’t save us”
    “Money is the root of all evil, so we think you are better off without it”

  32. Well GG I doubt I’ll be free of my financial commitments in less than a decade, but your comment is more spin. Opinions shouldn’t be disqualified because of people’s age, wealth or stage in life. Play the ball, not the man.

  36. #32,

    [Play the ball, not the man]

    The original Socrates used to say “You cannot play the balls without playing the man”. he was a wiseman.

  41. Everything that you wanted to know about the handy works of the Masters of The Universe but were afraid to ask:

    [If you’re having a little trouble coping with what seems to be the complete unraveling of the world’s financial system, you needn’t feel bad about yourself. It’s horribly confusing, not to say terrifying; even people like us, with a combined 65 years of writing about business, have never seen anything like what’s going on. Some of the smartest, savviest people we know — like the folks running the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board — find themselves reacting to problems rather than getting ahead of them. It’s terra incognita, a place no one expected to visit.

    Given that this is a political year and change is the buzzword, how do Barack Obama and John McCain intend to see us out of this mess? Good question. We don’t know, and it’s not at all clear that they’ve thought about it in greater than sound-bite depth]

    http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1842123,00.html

  44. Socrates

    how can you make those Statements blaming it all on McCain/Republicans when you know from my post today
    1/ 1999 th ‘deregulation’ Bill was passed in senate 90 to 8 with biden saying yes and MCain (abstain) & in HoR approx 357 to 42
    2/Democrats hav controlled Senate since 2006 and hav not put up re-regulation Bills 3/ Obama’s own ecomnomist is on record in 2007 praiing sub prime loans and
    4/ Fannie mack & Fannie Mae is put before houses yearly and no critisim made of there crazy lending practises
    5/ McCain suggested in 2005 more regulation off them & Obama has sat in senate all this time

    If anything Democrats hav alot to answer for as do republicans

  46. Hello GG

    DESPITE th spin by Obama and his sup[porters , Mccain co sponspored a regulation bill in 2006 that th DEMOCRATS scuttled….and Obama was there

    This is what McCain said in suppoort of his Bill , quote

    “Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae’s regulator reported that the company’s quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were “illusions deliberately and systematically created” by the company’s senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.

    The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae’s former chief executive officer, OFHEO’s report shows that over half of Mr. Raines’ compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.

    The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator’s examination of the company’s accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.

    For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac–known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs–and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO’s report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO’s report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.

    I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.”

    McCain took action in 2005 that might have helped us avoid the severity of this current financial crisis Democrats AND OBAMA also took action in 2005…and stopped McCain’s reforms

    But US liberal press ‘spin’ hav reversed th truth & reality

  49. Generic Person

    want to talk about an irrelevant audio or a $5.1 trillion collapse of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mack that Mccain predicted & tried to prevent in early 2006 per my #46 , which Obama & his mates prevented

    IF truth gets out to people past th liberal intellegentsia press , then poney phoney Obama is finished

  50. No 49

    Obama is easily the most liberal, leftist presidential candidate in history. When asked about taxation, he gives meaningless platitudes about why the rich should pay more instead of pledging to abolish income taxes altogether (which make up only 40% of federal tax revenue) in order to create more jobs and encourage people to work more.

    McCain talks about reducing government, whereas (n)Obama pledges to increase its size.

    Thankfully Americans are seeing the light and switching their vote to McCain/Palin.

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