A polling bonanza for the Western Australian election, with a 51-49 result in Labor’s favour from Newspoll (UPDATE: Scanned graphic courtesy of James J; Peter Brent at Mumble doesn’t like the look of a mere 51-49 lead to Labor from even primary vote figures) and a comprehensive Westpoll survey in The West Australian. The latter includes a 50.2-49.8 statewide result in Labor’s favour from a sample of 400, plus electorate-level surveys of 400 voters from Scarborough (notional Liberal margin of 2.4 per cent, Liberals lead 52-48), Kingsley (notionally lineball, Liberals lead 54-46), Collie-Preston (notional Labor margin 0.9 per cent, 50-50), Kalamunda (notional Liberal margin 0.2 per cent, Liberals lead 54-46) and Riverton (notional Labor margin 2.1 per cent, Liberals lead 51-49). Full scan here. Other highlights of the past week:
• Nominations closed at noon yesterday, and the Poll Bludger election guide has accordingly been brought up to date with full candidate lists. A key feature is the late withdrawal of a large number of much-touted independent candidates. Two Labor-turned-independent MPs who had earlier planned on running evidently saw the writing on the wall: one-time Health Minister and Yokine MP Bob Kucera, who was earlier deliberating over whether to contest Nollamara or Mount Lawley, and Shelley Archer, the wife of CFMEU heavy Kevin Reynolds who was dumped from the party over dealings with Brian Burke, earlier weighing her options in Kimberley and her existing upper house seat in Mining and Pastoral region. On the other side of politics, former leader Paul Omodei has decided against nominating after most recently suggesting he would run for the South West upper house region. Troy Buswell’s predecessor as member for Vasse, Bernie Masters, has decided not to run against him after very nearly defeating him as an independent in 2005. The only remaining major party renegade still in the hunt is Ballajura MP John D’Orazio, contesting the new seat of Morley.
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian noted the Liberals’ unreadiness for the campaign in an article on Thursday, identifying two reasons for their lack of television advertising thus far: “The first is that they’re simply not ready. When the election was called, the Liberals did not even have advertising concepts in the can for former leader Troy Buswell, let alone a leader who had only been elected the previous day. The second is that they are woefully underfunded and Olympic period television advertising is extremely expensive. Labor is said to have booked significant airspace during the Olympics for about $250,000 … Liberal television advertisements are not expected to hit the airwaves until the Olympics are over, giving them roughly 10 days to establish their message before the media blackout comes into effect at midnight on the Wednesday before the poll.”
• On which subject, eastern states viewers can view the Labor television ad on the ALP site. Western Australian readers will have seen it a million times already. Interesting to note that the front page of the site includes a defence of the early election announcement.
• The Liberals do at least have two radio ads, both negative, which can be heard here. Message common to both: “If you couldn’t make things work with eight years of boom, what’s going to happen now that things are slowing down, prices are rising and interest rates are up?”
• Labor has also chosen the medium of radio to field its first negative ads, which fascinatingly pursue the theme of Liberal Party sexism: not conventional election campaign fodder, but well worth a run under the present extraordinary circumstances. As well as the lingering image problem from Troy Buswell’s tenure as leader, the Liberals can boast just one female candidate in a notionally Liberal lower house seat, and precious few in winnable Labor seats. The message is conveyed by a young girl declaring her aspirations for when she grows up, and the unlikelihood of them being realised through the vehicle of the Liberal Party. If you’re up early this morning (7am Saturday) you might hear me discussing the subject on the ABC’s AM program (UPDATE: Read and hear it here). More on the women candidates issue from Andrea Mayes of the Sunday Times.
• An interesting assessment of the overall situation from Kim Beazley in an article for WAToday, who in tipping a cliffhanger reminds readers that “the blue-collar component of the WA electorate is half that of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, and 50 per cent less than Brisbane”, and that “a large non-English speaking background electorate so richly supportive of Labor in the east” is “likewise missing”.
• The Liberals have landed an interesting candidate in the safe Labor southern suburbs seat of Cockburn: Corruption and Crime Commission intelligence analyst Donald Barrett, who has taken leave without pay from his position to stand against Energy Minister Fran Logan. Jessica Strutt of The West Australian reports that “some Labor MPs are simply paranoid about the Barrett factor – more particularly the ‘dirt’ he may have”.
• The Prime Minister was on the campaign trail in the northern outskirts seat of Mindarie on Thursday as Alan Carpenter announced a $147.5 million extension of the northern rail line.
• Deidre Willmott, who stood aside in Cottesloe to allow Colin Barnett to rescind his retirement plans, has been appointed Barnett’s chief-of-staff. There seems little doubt she will realise her claim to Cottesloe at a by-election if the Liberals fail to win government.
• State political editor Peter Kennedy told ABC Radio on Monday that a Labor source had revealed polling in Swan Hills showing 69 per cent believed the Liberals were not ready to govern, but clammed up when probed about voting intention or figures from other seats. However, Labor has been openly trumpeting polling from Jandakot showing them leading 56-44.
• Former Labor MP and lobbying kingpin MP John Halden made the eyebrow-raising claim in an article in Monday’s West Australian that Ben Wyatt, who replaced Geoff Gallop as member for Victoria Park in March 2006, would succeed Alan Carpenter as Premier before the next election. The following day he told the paper it was “no secret” in Labor ranks he was being groomed for the job.
• Crikey subscribers can read me having two bob each way on the relevance of the Northern Territory precedent.
You seem to have selective memory, Carpenter DID deny it, as did several others including Ms Pratt.
And Jaye said this on the matter.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/premier-snaps-over-bra-strap-rap/2008/05/06/1209839631954.html
That to me sounds like a denial.
Ahh, I understand Frank’s puerile argument now.
Buswell is bad because his impropriety was done in Parliament.
Carpenter is good. The burden of proof is higher for him (non-denied rumours and media reports are not valid). And, even if Carpenter sexually assaulted someone it was not done in Parliament so it was ok.
By implication, the indiscretions of MPs are really open question when they take “place at Parliament during sitting hours” and misconduct at private functions is outside the realm of public judgement.
Frank, I’m sure your comrades at ALP HQ really appreciate this fine display of mately solidarity.
Frank,
If that is a denial to you, then you appear to have strong powers of selective reading. I quote back:
I suggest that, if that is a denial, then black, plainly, is white.
If you have a link to Carpenter denying it I request you put it up. I do not believe he has done so, but with a verified report I will concede on that.
As requested, here is Carpenter’s denial.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=71362
Boerwar,
Points 1 to 4 are conceded (apart from the “rat” bit, but I will take that as poetic license).
On your following points 1 to 3:
1. I understand that several eye witnesses have reported what happened and Jaye (for one) has not denied it. There have been various attempts to kill the story (one of which Frank has kindly reproduced above) but none of them have been by way of denial or any real attempt to explain the conduct. Considering the attendees at the function were all strong Labor sympathisers, this may be as good as we get. Personally, I would be satisified with a straight denial from Jaye.
2. Would you believe she would be willing to have this done? Rhetorical question, I know, but I like to apply the test of common sense.
3. Assault is assualt, whether public or private. An office in Parliament House can also be considered “private”. I would submit this is irrelevant.
I think it’s a bit of a laugh. Carpenter used to be a journo, Radisich used to be a student unionist; both professions known for their love of boozing and partying (hang around a university for a few years, you learn this). I wouldn’t be surprised if they got drunk and got silly one night, but it’s a case of “what happens on tour, stays on tour”. If nobody involved was offended in the morning, it doesn’t matter what happened. Doing something you later wish you hadn’t with the opposite sex while drunk is not the same thing as sexual assault. 😉
The Australian wrote there was a denial.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23646314-5006789,00.html
Andrew,
You are starting to sound a tad desperate, despite these facts.
1. Buswell admitted sniffing a female staffers chair.
2. The victim said it happened.
3. Buswell admitted snapping open a female staffers bra.
4. The victim is on stress leave.
5. Carpenter denied lifting anyone’s top
6. Ms Radisich & Ms Pratt deny anything untoward happened.
Maybe we could get back to a policy debate, now that Buswell has moved on.
BoP
“Doing something you later wish you hadn’t with the opposite sex while drunk is not the same thing as sexual assault”
Actually, sometimes it is.
Andrew and others at various posts
Most regulars in this blog might have the view that I am even-handed on this issue, so I came to this string with an open mind on Carpenter, although my mind had been made up on Buswell and on Len the Feather Duster in Darwin.
For as long as Ms Radisch neither confirms nor denies, which is her right, there is no story. Apart from anything else, her decision and her privacy should be respected.
Spreading the non-story as if it might be true would have to be a fairly vicious sort of exercise which is possibly personally damaging to Ms Radisch.
My advice to the libnats is not to lower yourself to this sort of exercise and to focus on some quality policy instead. It is the thing that would make you look like a credible government in waiting.
Good question, there will be some people who will believe it, but I think in the main most fair minded people will see that Carpenter dealt with the problem promptly as evidenced in the former Peel By-Election (the seat is now abolished) with the ALP recieving a swing towards it, despite it being held at the height of the CCC hearings with daily releases of the phone taps between Burke and others.
Frank Calabrese @ 161
Thank you.
I should add that the By-Election was caused by the resignation of the first CCC scalp Norm Malborough.
There has been a sudden silence on the part of the Libs. on the withheld security tape issue. Iwonder why?
And former Lib turned Family Firat candidate Anthony Fels was on the ABC News talking about it, and it was mentioned that he raised it in 2001 with then Police Minister Kevin Prince, who appranently didn’t pursue the matter further.
Hmm, the plot thickens.
I actualy popped in to disagree with Mumble’s interpretaton of Newspoll’s 51/49 But what do I find ?
A liberal supporter Andrew making unsubstantiated allegations with no sworn affadavits made I hope you did not actualy think anyone would believe you
Did you hear the Lib. environment spokesman,Thomas, (he who enthusiastically backed eco destroying sand mining activities on behalf of a certain company and was given $30 per week rental accomodation by that company), on TV this evening?
Apparently his justification is that it was crappy accomodation anyway. So that makes it all right in Lib.LaLa Land.
Where do they get these guys from?
And more to the point, why aren’t they pilloried mercilessly by our free and independent press?
Because they are not in the ALP 🙂
And I note that he, and the others supporting him have been noticeably silent once Col & Boerwar pointed out how silly they looked by raising said allegations. 🙂
168 They are starting to get a bit of detail on the story now. It is all beginning to sound about as convincing as the Santo Santoro story in the senate last year which took a few days to get straight.
[He said it was a rundown, dirty, rat-infested house not worth more than $30 a week. He did not believe he should have declared the rental agreement because he had not lobbied on the company’s behalf.
“I probably would have been the shadow minister for a period of time while I was there, but I don’t think we actually did anything in relation to Cable Sands,” Dr Thomas said.
“I haven’t lobbied on behalf of Bemax or anything. I’ve made general statements about the employment of the mineral sands industry in my electorate, but I haven’t made a single statement anywhere in relation to Bemax getting a special deal for anything — whether in that time I was in the house or outside of that time.”]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21498,24191431-2761,00.html?from=public_rss
I suppose, dirty, run down, rat infested houses are where rats live.
Did he give any indication of the purpose he rented it for?
I read somewhere else it was for his family to live, while their house got renovated. (In another world, that could be the premise for one of the Lockie Leonard books… anyone remember them?)
It could be interesting when he reveals his shareholdings he owns but I suppose they don’t need to go on the register until if/when some lobbying is done either.
It occurs to me he may have merely being trying to secure an appropriate venue for the next South West Liberal Party Council meeting.
In which case, entirely appropriate, and all is forgiven.
Frank,
I hope you will accept my apologies for going and having my dinner, leaving you here seemingly prematurely crowing.
Also apologies if I do not entirely believe a politician giving a seemingly half-hearted denial. I do not necessarily believe it when they come out with lines like “baseless smears”. As I said, I will accept a denial from Jaye – Carpenter’s seeming denial just seems weak, although I concede he has denied one specific accusation, if not any inappropriate behaviour.
I would, however, appreciate a withdrawal of the specific charge of hypocracy against me Equally, I think you should withdraw on the error you made that she had denied it.
I also think that your powers of mis-reading are showing themselves again, Frank. I did not request this continues, in fact I asked the exact reverse. I said I would continue if you did.
.
Boerwars,
I would think that any woman would be offended by the suggestion you have made that an assault on them could be “possibly personally damaging”. I accept you did not intend that, but I think it would be offensive.
As a side point, you called me a “libnat”. I am not currently a member of any political party, and have never had a paid position with any political party – although in the past I have been a member. I am currently merely an interested by-stander. I am happy to stick to the issues, and offer to drop this point too, provided others here also do so.
.
Ron,
There were no sworn affadavits in the Buswell incidents either. If nothing happened in politics until there were affadavits we would be all the poorer. Still, if no-one talks about it, then it did not happen, did it?
I’m sure there’s a valid explanation which will be forthcoming. There can only be improvement on today’s effort.
Frank,
My previous comment is held in moderation for the moment, so you can await that one.
.
Ron,
To add to it, though. If you want to have a word about “unsubstatiated allegations”, perhaps you should ask our good host here to change the Swan Hills page I linked to earlier.
Fulvio, scroll down to the list of companies in WA at the end of this fun list, more than enough to keep a budding Minister for the Environment busy for a while.
http://www.npi.gov.au/overview/reports/wa-facility-location.html#Details
And if it’s a personal attack on me, that’s where it will stay 🙂
I was feeling pretty smug until I read your list steve, but now I’m just sad…
Even though I live here, I’m getting on now. But my kids…
Andrew,
I’ve read your latest tirade and stand by what I’ve said.
Pot Meet Kettle 🙂
Frank I think the senator’s ‘rebuttal’ was the most insightful of all the comments. Didn’t she do a joke about men staring at her breasts all the time?
Think she did from memory. It’s a shame that hypocrites like Andrew can get all high and mighty criticising the left for this while ignoring more disgusting activities in their own backyard re BHuswell.
And here are Louise Pratt’s comments at the time.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23641464-2761,00.html
you know me Frank, if it was true, I’d be very critical of the Premier, as I was with chairman sniff, and then I’d be very critical of his not coming clean, if indeed he did it.
Having said that I think there is only one logical conclusion that can be drawn from the major players reactions / behaviour.
Yeah interesting quote, damning really if you ask me.
Andrew Reynolds
#176
“Ron,
There were no sworn affadavits in the Buswell incidents either. If nothing happened in politics until there were affadavits we would be all the poorer”
Andrew all you’ve engaged in is unsubstantiated mud throwing , now perhaps it helps your sense of helplessness as you notice your Liberal Party is not in power in any of th 9 Federal and State/Territory governemtns in ‘oz’ , if so fine
BUT you’ve only made me happy tonite to see that in midst of Liberal Party’s ruins , its suporters ar now actualy deluding themselves with ficticous sex storys to improve ther morale , instead of actualy producing relevant policys , so you ar actualy going backwards here
sorry Ron but why doesn’t the quote above provide Andrew with substantiation, would you still be refusing to accept the Buswell story if he’d stuck with his lie?
as I said the quote above is enough for me.
189 jasmine – I’m confused. Are you saying Andrew has a point because of the quote Frank provides at 185?
Jasmine
Louise Pratt’s denial Statement could not be more explicit in denying anything inappropriarte occurred at all re Carpenter
She probably could hav simply said last sentence which is an unqualifed denial
But before she did so , she wanted to make it clear subject was no one else’s business of a private Politicans Party anyway as it was indeed a private party and none of Press’s business further she is saying obviously they giggled etc at Party so what , she was not going to allow Press to turn there Party giggles to a politcal story , so effectively was saying …..to Press
Having made that pint , she clearly has denied th allegation of inappropriate behavour Now if people want to ‘twist’ her unambigous words , thats for them
yeah Gary I’m thinking the conclusion Andrew leans towards, is pretty sound based on everyone’s behaviour, that quote is priceless. Says so much, sounds so much like a denial, but it just isn’t. If it can’t be a denial then why? I’ll leave it at that.
Ron on the contrary it couldn’t be much less specific, it couldn’t avoid denying it any harder without just saying ‘look it happened ok get over it it doesn’t matter’. Look it, it isn’t even subtle.
It’s the ‘None of your business, stickybeak’ denial. 😉
Which is what Jaye said in the first place – yes something along those lines happened, no I wasn’t offended, and I’m not saying anything else on the matter, now piss off 🙂
Jasmine , in place of Pratt’s last sentence of #185 , tell what ‘denial’ sentence of words would hav satisfied you ?
I can’t for the life of me see how anyone can equate what Buswell did with the thing Carpenter was supposed to have done.
I wish people would stop trying to argue the point here. You’re not convincing anyone either way. Poll Bludger was such a more interesting resource before the “let’s have a big political argument!” people with nothing insightful to add took over…
Yes, it’s turned into the “Labor fanclub” and “Liberal haters” of recent.
Saen and Rebecca , floor is yours for us to read