Westpoll: 50-50; Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A polling bonanza for the Western Australian election, with a 51-49 result in Labor’s favour from Newspoll (UPDATE: Scanned graphic courtesy of James J; Peter Brent at Mumble doesn’t like the look of a mere 51-49 lead to Labor from even primary vote figures) and a comprehensive Westpoll survey in The West Australian. The latter includes a 50.2-49.8 statewide result in Labor’s favour from a sample of 400, plus electorate-level surveys of 400 voters from Scarborough (notional Liberal margin of 2.4 per cent, Liberals lead 52-48), Kingsley (notionally lineball, Liberals lead 54-46), Collie-Preston (notional Labor margin 0.9 per cent, 50-50), Kalamunda (notional Liberal margin 0.2 per cent, Liberals lead 54-46) and Riverton (notional Labor margin 2.1 per cent, Liberals lead 51-49). Full scan here. Other highlights of the past week:

• Nominations closed at noon yesterday, and the Poll Bludger election guide has accordingly been brought up to date with full candidate lists. A key feature is the late withdrawal of a large number of much-touted independent candidates. Two Labor-turned-independent MPs who had earlier planned on running evidently saw the writing on the wall: one-time Health Minister and Yokine MP Bob Kucera, who was earlier deliberating over whether to contest Nollamara or Mount Lawley, and Shelley Archer, the wife of CFMEU heavy Kevin Reynolds who was dumped from the party over dealings with Brian Burke, earlier weighing her options in Kimberley and her existing upper house seat in Mining and Pastoral region. On the other side of politics, former leader Paul Omodei has decided against nominating after most recently suggesting he would run for the South West upper house region. Troy Buswell’s predecessor as member for Vasse, Bernie Masters, has decided not to run against him after very nearly defeating him as an independent in 2005. The only remaining major party renegade still in the hunt is Ballajura MP John D’Orazio, contesting the new seat of Morley.

• Robert Taylor of The West Australian noted the Liberals’ unreadiness for the campaign in an article on Thursday, identifying two reasons for their lack of television advertising thus far: “The first is that they’re simply not ready. When the election was called, the Liberals did not even have advertising concepts in the can for former leader Troy Buswell, let alone a leader who had only been elected the previous day. The second is that they are woefully underfunded and Olympic period television advertising is extremely expensive. Labor is said to have booked significant airspace during the Olympics for about $250,000 … Liberal television advertisements are not expected to hit the airwaves until the Olympics are over, giving them roughly 10 days to establish their message before the media blackout comes into effect at midnight on the Wednesday before the poll.”

• On which subject, eastern states viewers can view the Labor television ad on the ALP site. Western Australian readers will have seen it a million times already. Interesting to note that the front page of the site includes a defence of the early election announcement.

• The Liberals do at least have two radio ads, both negative, which can be heard here. Message common to both: “If you couldn’t make things work with eight years of boom, what’s going to happen now that things are slowing down, prices are rising and interest rates are up?”

• Labor has also chosen the medium of radio to field its first negative ads, which fascinatingly pursue the theme of Liberal Party sexism: not conventional election campaign fodder, but well worth a run under the present extraordinary circumstances. As well as the lingering image problem from Troy Buswell’s tenure as leader, the Liberals can boast just one female candidate in a notionally Liberal lower house seat, and precious few in winnable Labor seats. The message is conveyed by a young girl declaring her aspirations for when she grows up, and the unlikelihood of them being realised through the vehicle of the Liberal Party. If you’re up early this morning (7am Saturday) you might hear me discussing the subject on the ABC’s AM program (UPDATE: Read and hear it here). More on the women candidates issue from Andrea Mayes of the Sunday Times.

• An interesting assessment of the overall situation from Kim Beazley in an article for WAToday, who in tipping a cliffhanger reminds readers that “the blue-collar component of the WA electorate is half that of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, and 50 per cent less than Brisbane”, and that “a large non-English speaking background electorate so richly supportive of Labor in the east” is “likewise missing”.

• The Liberals have landed an interesting candidate in the safe Labor southern suburbs seat of Cockburn: Corruption and Crime Commission intelligence analyst Donald Barrett, who has taken leave without pay from his position to stand against Energy Minister Fran Logan. Jessica Strutt of The West Australian reports that “some Labor MPs are simply paranoid about the Barrett factor – more particularly the ‘dirt’ he may have”.

• The Prime Minister was on the campaign trail in the northern outskirts seat of Mindarie on Thursday as Alan Carpenter announced a $147.5 million extension of the northern rail line.

• Deidre Willmott, who stood aside in Cottesloe to allow Colin Barnett to rescind his retirement plans, has been appointed Barnett’s chief-of-staff. There seems little doubt she will realise her claim to Cottesloe at a by-election if the Liberals fail to win government.

• State political editor Peter Kennedy told ABC Radio on Monday that a Labor source had revealed polling in Swan Hills showing 69 per cent believed the Liberals were not ready to govern, but clammed up when probed about voting intention or figures from other seats. However, Labor has been openly trumpeting polling from Jandakot showing them leading 56-44.

• Former Labor MP and lobbying kingpin MP John Halden made the eyebrow-raising claim in an article in Monday’s West Australian that Ben Wyatt, who replaced Geoff Gallop as member for Victoria Park in March 2006, would succeed Alan Carpenter as Premier before the next election. The following day he told the paper it was “no secret” in Labor ranks he was being groomed for the job.

• Crikey subscribers can read me having two bob each way on the relevance of the Northern Territory precedent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

277 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50; Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. According to Anton’s machine there would need to be another 1.5% shift away from the lab party before there is any more change of seats. Is this a sensible conclusion – I think individual seats have a variation?

  3. I was inclined to get worried, so then I went and researched the newspolls before the last state election, the Newspoll at the end of January 2005 before the late Feb election was a dead heat at 50-50. The gap in the pref prem was 21 as to 18 now to Gallop. I feel better now 🙂 Oh and re the Westpoll, I’m sure we all remember their ridiculous marginal seat polls in the run up to the last election, i think they must believe if they cook up enough results they will actually come true.

  4. I was inclined to get worried, so then I went and researched the newspolls before the last state election, the Newspoll at the end of January 2005 before the late Feb election was a dead heat at 50-50. The gap in the pref prem was 21 as to 18 now to Gallop. I feel better now 🙂

    Well you can automatically discount the National vote as they Brendan Grylls will not do a backflip on going into a coalition with the Libs, and was just as adamant of this on Stateline.

    Oh and re the Westpoll, I’m sure we all remember their ridiculous marginal seat polls in the run up to the last election, i think they must believe if they cook up enough results they will actually come true.

    Of course those Marginal seats look suss, what’s the bet they rang homes which corresponded to booths which went towards the Libs ? 🙂

  5. From the Australian Article.

    The result will put pressure on Nationals leader Brendon Grylls to reconsider his decision not to go into Coalition with the Liberals should both parties poll well. Mr Grylls has been adamant that the Nationals can do well enough in the state’s Legislative Assembly to hold the balance of power.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24188629-5013404,00.html

    I wonder if there will also be pressure on Barnett to do a backflip re the Regional Royalty fund which Grylls is using as a Preference Lever ?

  6. You know a great way to look at this West”poll” is to think that the last Westpoll in which Barnett was put as a leader to respondents the result was 57-43 to the Libs, so isnt the momentum going to Labor?

  7. You know a great way to look at this West”poll” is to think that the last Westpoll in which Barnett was put as a leader to respondents the result was 57-43 to the Libs, so isnt the momentum going to Labor?

    Yeah, that does make the result look a bit more heartening, so really the more Barnett is exposed in the media and the more he opens his mouth, the better for Labor 🙂

  8. Aww, no Bernie Masters in Vasse. Buswell will have no troubles there, then.

    Also on that list of candidates: there appears to be two Andrew Partingtons – one for the Liberals in Albany, the other for the CDP in Morley. I wonder if that’s a weird coincidence, or there’s been a mistake? That name isn’t that common…

  9. Aww, no Bernie Masters in Vasse. Buswell will have no troubles there, then.

    BUt I’m sure the ALP will be hitting Vasse very hard with the material they would’ve used for a Statewide campaign against Buswell and I predict that his time as Shire President will be given a run in the local media there.

  10. Oh, there’s no doubt about that. It’s not out of the question for Labor… the kind of people who vote for the CDP would probably vote Buswell last, and most of the Greens preferences would go to Labor too (they’d get an OK amount of the vote, considering Margaret River’s now in the seat). However, the Nationals aren’t running and neither are any major independents, so there’d be more conservative vote for Buswell. Plus, Labor only announced their candidate a few days ago, which makes them look not too serious.

    In fact, now that I think of it, Vasse could be really good for the Christian Democrats. With no Masters or Omodei, they’re the non-Buswell conservatives. Maybe:

    Lib 40%
    ALP 35%
    Grn 15%
    CDP 10%

    If the vote ends up something like that, and all the major parties preference Buswell last, then he’s in trouble. I can’t quite see it, though.

  11. Anthony Fels is the lead Family First candidate for Agricultural. Dan Sullivan in South West.

    That party is more and more becoming a haven for disaffected Liberals.

  13. This WA election is getting a bigger run in Queensland than any previous WA elections with William Bowe on the ABC’s AM and the Curious Snail running a story about the Westpoll as is The Australian.

    Somehow this one seems to be capturing a more national audience probably because of the chair-sniffing antics that have been widely publisised over the past few months.

    Once again the bookies still have their odds unmoved from last night, they just do not seem to believe that a rabble will beat a Government no matter what figures Westpoll dredge up. Do Westpoll tend to be like Galaxy and get more accurate with bigger sample sizes in the poll just before the election?

  14. The Australian seems to have pushed the envelope a little too far and confused everyone including themselves:

    “On the question of which leader was more capable of handling the state’s economy, Mr Carpenter led Mr Barnett by 12 percentage points (49 to 37).

    However, voters believed the Opposition was a better party to handle the economy and taxation matters than Labor.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24188629-5013404,00.html

    Perhaps The Australian writes the spin first and adapts it to fit the Newspoll and the fantasy does not quite fit the reality of the Newspoll.

  16. But Steve there has been a massive shift back to Labor from the last Westpoll. I bet they didn’t couch the latest results in those terms though.

  17. I think the Newspoll is significant but I also believe (and I could be wrong) that this is the Liberal’s high tide in the polls. When push comes to shove people don’t elect rabble to government unless the government is rabble itself which I understand isn’t the case here.

  18. 16 “But Steve there has been a massive shift back to Labor from the last Westpoll. I bet they didn’t couch the latest results in those terms though.”

    Gary, Yahoo News covers all angles, possibilities, combinations and permutations, check out these two paragraphs from Yahoo news:

    “1. The Liberal Party is capable of achieving an unlikely victory in the West Australian election while its new leader is closing the gap on Premier Alan Carpenter , a new poll shows…

    6. A month ago Mr Carpenter led Mr Buswell 57 percentage points to 12 points, but this week’s poll had support for Mr Carpenter on 44 points, ahead of Mr Barnett on 31 points.”

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/4913399/wa-liberals-capable-election-victory

  20. Considering the fact the Libs haven’t even commenced TV advertising at this stage and the corruption inquiry may yet release their results before polling day, these results show the Opposition in with a good chance.

  22. Speaking of ethnics having an influence, are there any seats in WA that have a sufficient concentration of jaapies and rhodies lining up one way or another to make an difference?

  23. Good to see the Daylight Saving Party will be putting in candidates for the metro upper house. For the first time in my life I wont be putting Labor number 1 on a ballot paper. Will still do so in the lower house though.

  26. For the record the survey period for the newspoll was 10-14 August, with a sample size of 1088. Full tables on p10 of the oz. (Including figures on Voter commitment, ‘Best to handle issues’, ‘Issues rated very important’, ‘Best words to decribe WA leaders’, ‘Best to handle to WA economy’, and ‘Who will win the WA election’.)

  27. #14 I don’t understand what you’re talking about, it makes perfect sense to me.

    In the paper the graphic shows voters think the Liberal Party are better at handling the economy and taxation than Labor, but when the question is framed around the leaders only, they think Carpenter is better for the economy than Barnett.

    Theres no contradiction at all. I think you need to stop looking for excuses to bash The Oz and have a think about what they’re writing first.

  30. William, it is the Newspoll graphic in the Australian newspaper version but not the online version apparently, that someone wants to be pedantic about. Why they don’t publish the graphic online makes no sense to me.

  33. The credibility of the Westpolls by seats looks pretty low when it has the Greens doing substantially better in Collie than Scarborough. I know the boundaries have shifted, but last time the Greens got 3.1% in Collie, while Scarborough has to be pretty strong territory – we got over 10% in the booths with that name despite Liz Constable sweeping the field.

    The Australian also reckons 10% is “devastating” for us in the Newspoll. I can’t say I’m delighted, after 16% last time, but its still an increase of over 2% on the last actual election. If we can hold that vote on election day it may be enough for 3 in the LC.

  34. Thanks James J and the whole difference of each party in handling the economy is one percent. Labor 40/ Liberal,national 41. Big deal.

  35. What’s going on with political punters in Australia? Either the pools or the punters are wrong. The NT result was nothing like the punters confident predictions ($250,000 bet on Labor to $2,000 on CLP). This election is looking a bit like that. The LNP are still at $4.00. That has to be over the odds.

  38. If I were a betting man, which I’m not, I would be backing Labor in WA right now.
    The Barnett factor has already kicked into these polls and Labor would still win an election on these figures. When a change is on you would expect the opposition to be in front now and all other factors, such as preferred premier and major issues going the opposition’s way. This is not happening in this Newspoll poll.

  39. 37 Diogenes – Labor also had a large majority in the NT and there were no polls to indicate what was going to happen. People foolishly went into that one blind unlike this WA poll.

  40. It is interesting we have lots of talk about Liberal Brand Damage and lots of talk that Carpenter has led a really good government, but if these things were both true in the general public mind we should not even be considering a Labor loss, as our friend Frank, perhaps correctly is not.

    The Libs have quite a bit of change over, so it will be interesting to see what talent they can compile, assuming a loss, post Colin. I know that many on the Labor side have looked at the opposition benches as completely without talent of any sort. Will be a worry if they have a shock win, but a close loss will be a rebuilding opportunity if they’ve preselected well (which seems unlikely).

  41. Bottom line, betting is gambling, gambling is punting and huge, ornate punting palaces have been constructed just for the punters by disinterested cappos.

    I notice that Mackerras has stated that he thinks the states/territories will go libnat now that the feds are lab.

    Is it an immutable law in Australian politics that if there if the feds are labour, then the states/territories will go lib/nat, or vice versa?

    If there is a statistical correlation, how strong is it?

    Would it be enough to say, explain a swing of 1-2% away from lab to libnat in WA?

  43. 41″Is it an immutable law in Australian politics that if there if the feds are labour, then the states/territories will go lib/nat, or vice versa?

    If there is a statistical correlation, how strong is it?”

    $weetie certainly believed that when he bought in the GST and said the rate could only be changed in the unlikely event of the same political colour in all states and Territories, Boerwar. I have never heard of it being any more than wild speculation by uninformed hopeful hacks but William, Antony,Adam or Possum would have a more detailed mathematical based idea than me.

  44. Peter Brent at http://www.mumble.com.au has posted some interesting analysis of the preference flows from these polls.

    “Newspoll has Labor on 51, but it should be 52 or 53”

    He says that some Labor preferences are underestimated.

    Nevertheless, it is a close race.

  45. This is hardly a statistical analysis, but it’s kinda interesting: the years the Liberals and Labor have been in power in WA and federally since 1945 (from Wikipedia).

    Fed/WA, 1945-2008 (63):

    ALP/ALP: 1945-47, 1972-74, 1983-93, 2007-present. (15)
    ALP/Lib: 1947-49, 1974-75, 1993-96. (6)
    Lib/ALP: 1953-59, 1971-72, 2001-07. (13)
    Lib/Lib: 1949-53, 1959-71, 1975-83, 1996-2001. (29)

    So, in the last 63 years (basically since there was a Liberal Party), the probability of ALP state govt given ALP federal govt is 15/21 ~ 71%. (Statisticians, feel free to bite me on incorrect use of the word ‘probability’. 😛 ) The ALP/Lib figure is interesting: that’s the last few years of Chifley, Whitlam, and Keating, and after all those three the ALP was out of power federally for an awful long time.

  46. Bird of paradox @ 45
    They are an interesting set of numbers which seems to turn the proposition on its head. I am unstatistical, so would appreciate it if more learned minds could apply their curves to this one.

  47. interesting westpoll figures for Scarborough though….based on the notional figures calculated by Anthony Green, its seems like a swing to the ALP candidate at this point.

  48. Given that both Newspoll and Westpoll are products of professional polling organisations, who presumably know what the caper is all about, how is it that a person like Peter Brent can see the possible discrepencies in their polls and they can’t? I would have thought the idea behind the polls was to give the public the most accurate assessment possible.
    To me there can only be 3 possible conclusions you can come to.
    1) Their method of polling is done in a way that it is not possible to be as accurate as possible and they’re prepared to just go with that.
    OR
    2) It suits them to skew the results in a certain way for a particular reason.
    OR
    3) They really don’t know about the electorate they are polling.

  50. So a professional organisation, one that deals in polls on a fortnightly basis, just gets the sums wrong? That’s it? What are the chances?

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