A polling bonanza for the Western Australian election, with a 51-49 result in Labor’s favour from Newspoll (UPDATE: Scanned graphic courtesy of James J; Peter Brent at Mumble doesn’t like the look of a mere 51-49 lead to Labor from even primary vote figures) and a comprehensive Westpoll survey in The West Australian. The latter includes a 50.2-49.8 statewide result in Labor’s favour from a sample of 400, plus electorate-level surveys of 400 voters from Scarborough (notional Liberal margin of 2.4 per cent, Liberals lead 52-48), Kingsley (notionally lineball, Liberals lead 54-46), Collie-Preston (notional Labor margin 0.9 per cent, 50-50), Kalamunda (notional Liberal margin 0.2 per cent, Liberals lead 54-46) and Riverton (notional Labor margin 2.1 per cent, Liberals lead 51-49). Full scan here. Other highlights of the past week:
• Nominations closed at noon yesterday, and the Poll Bludger election guide has accordingly been brought up to date with full candidate lists. A key feature is the late withdrawal of a large number of much-touted independent candidates. Two Labor-turned-independent MPs who had earlier planned on running evidently saw the writing on the wall: one-time Health Minister and Yokine MP Bob Kucera, who was earlier deliberating over whether to contest Nollamara or Mount Lawley, and Shelley Archer, the wife of CFMEU heavy Kevin Reynolds who was dumped from the party over dealings with Brian Burke, earlier weighing her options in Kimberley and her existing upper house seat in Mining and Pastoral region. On the other side of politics, former leader Paul Omodei has decided against nominating after most recently suggesting he would run for the South West upper house region. Troy Buswell’s predecessor as member for Vasse, Bernie Masters, has decided not to run against him after very nearly defeating him as an independent in 2005. The only remaining major party renegade still in the hunt is Ballajura MP John D’Orazio, contesting the new seat of Morley.
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian noted the Liberals’ unreadiness for the campaign in an article on Thursday, identifying two reasons for their lack of television advertising thus far: “The first is that they’re simply not ready. When the election was called, the Liberals did not even have advertising concepts in the can for former leader Troy Buswell, let alone a leader who had only been elected the previous day. The second is that they are woefully underfunded and Olympic period television advertising is extremely expensive. Labor is said to have booked significant airspace during the Olympics for about $250,000 … Liberal television advertisements are not expected to hit the airwaves until the Olympics are over, giving them roughly 10 days to establish their message before the media blackout comes into effect at midnight on the Wednesday before the poll.”
• On which subject, eastern states viewers can view the Labor television ad on the ALP site. Western Australian readers will have seen it a million times already. Interesting to note that the front page of the site includes a defence of the early election announcement.
• The Liberals do at least have two radio ads, both negative, which can be heard here. Message common to both: “If you couldn’t make things work with eight years of boom, what’s going to happen now that things are slowing down, prices are rising and interest rates are up?”
• Labor has also chosen the medium of radio to field its first negative ads, which fascinatingly pursue the theme of Liberal Party sexism: not conventional election campaign fodder, but well worth a run under the present extraordinary circumstances. As well as the lingering image problem from Troy Buswell’s tenure as leader, the Liberals can boast just one female candidate in a notionally Liberal lower house seat, and precious few in winnable Labor seats. The message is conveyed by a young girl declaring her aspirations for when she grows up, and the unlikelihood of them being realised through the vehicle of the Liberal Party. If you’re up early this morning (7am Saturday) you might hear me discussing the subject on the ABC’s AM program (UPDATE: Read and hear it here). More on the women candidates issue from Andrea Mayes of the Sunday Times.
• An interesting assessment of the overall situation from Kim Beazley in an article for WAToday, who in tipping a cliffhanger reminds readers that “the blue-collar component of the WA electorate is half that of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, and 50 per cent less than Brisbane”, and that “a large non-English speaking background electorate so richly supportive of Labor in the east” is “likewise missing”.
• The Liberals have landed an interesting candidate in the safe Labor southern suburbs seat of Cockburn: Corruption and Crime Commission intelligence analyst Donald Barrett, who has taken leave without pay from his position to stand against Energy Minister Fran Logan. Jessica Strutt of The West Australian reports that “some Labor MPs are simply paranoid about the Barrett factor – more particularly the ‘dirt’ he may have”.
• The Prime Minister was on the campaign trail in the northern outskirts seat of Mindarie on Thursday as Alan Carpenter announced a $147.5 million extension of the northern rail line.
• Deidre Willmott, who stood aside in Cottesloe to allow Colin Barnett to rescind his retirement plans, has been appointed Barnett’s chief-of-staff. There seems little doubt she will realise her claim to Cottesloe at a by-election if the Liberals fail to win government.
• State political editor Peter Kennedy told ABC Radio on Monday that a Labor source had revealed polling in Swan Hills showing 69 per cent believed the Liberals were not ready to govern, but clammed up when probed about voting intention or figures from other seats. However, Labor has been openly trumpeting polling from Jandakot showing them leading 56-44.
• Former Labor MP and lobbying kingpin MP John Halden made the eyebrow-raising claim in an article in Monday’s West Australian that Ben Wyatt, who replaced Geoff Gallop as member for Victoria Park in March 2006, would succeed Alan Carpenter as Premier before the next election. The following day he told the paper it was “no secret” in Labor ranks he was being groomed for the job.
• Crikey subscribers can read me having two bob each way on the relevance of the Northern Territory precedent.
Gary Bruce @ 50
Umm, I wouldn’t like to put a figure on the chances.
But if someone knows Peter Brent and could get his view on what was the most likely way of generating the original errors, I would be interested to know.
51: Email him. elect AT mumble.com.au
I suppose the other option is that Peter Brent is wrong but he is pretty cluey on these things.
Conspiracy theories Gary Bruce?
I’m devastated, Greens 30% increase on 2005 vote.
LOL
Before you all start getting excited about investigating some iron law of Australian politics that different parties will be put into power federally and in the states, you should recall that the history of pretty spectacular malapportionment of seats at the state level in South Australia, Queensland and WA means that it could be quite misleading just to look at who was in power for which periods.
For the benefit of those of us who are ignorant easterners, are the Daylight Saving Party for it or against it?
any incumbent govt has a head start
I would be not sure on uniform swings in the country seats Bunbury, Albany, collie-preston and Geraldton it would not suprise me if all those Mps were rtd…..I would still pick the most likely result as the Carpenter Govt being returned
54 Edward – what was conspiritorial about what I said? I gave all of the options. I’m just after answers. Hey Edward, you may have them.
Hmmm…
What would be the implications of a libnat victory in WA, fed/state relations-wise? Isn’t is often easier for fed/state opposing camps to reach real agreement in, say, COAG context?
I would have thought that at least the Libs would have been 50/50 or even ahead given the usual leadership change bounce and the contentious calling of an early election.
If this is their peak following a change of leader it doesnt look good for Barnett.
the libs will be making one of their first major election pledges 2mw… a $40m prison for young people, and $15m to start planning a major prison for adults. no i am not joking.
I cannot believe it – This is the Libs idea of Infrastructure ? This is straight out of 6PR Fantasy land, and no doubt to supplement their announcemnt re Mandatory Jail Terms for Assaulting Public officers.
This will backfire on them.
Note the Libs have twice blocked similar legislation in the Upper House.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/16/2337479.htm
Think Mumble is being a bit harsh on Newspoll in terms of how they calculate 2pp.
I acknowledge that distributing minor parties 55/45 is wrong if Greens vote has changed. I don’t actually know how Newspoll distribute preferences – but how much difference does it actually make?
I know I’m being pedantic about this but bear with me.
The Newspoll results were 42 Lib/Nat, 42 Lab, 10 Green and 6 other.
Mumble has allocated 8 of the Greens and 2 or 3 of the others to Labor giving 52/48 or 53/47 compared to Newspoll’s 51/49. He bases the Greens preferences on the 2007 Federal election (which may not necessarily apply to WA – but we’ll let that one go). If we accept that assumption (Greens 80/20) then the non-Green other votes will go 74/26 to Libs (based on the last state election).
Which gives us 52/48.
But another complication is rounding. If we round the figures at each stage of the calculation it can compound errors. It is better to calculate distribution of preferences to the decimal pont then only round the final figures.
Let’s say that the 42/42 first preference votes were really 42.4 Lib/Nat to 41.6 Labor. Then the allocation of preferences gives us 51/49.
So its quite possible Newspolls 2PP could be on the money.
No need for conspiracy theories.
Now this is better than a prison.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24191347-2761,00.html
I’m not surprised that now Howard is gone the Liberals are polling better at State level for I have felt for quite some time that one of the reasons why the ALP dominated State elections was that many Liberal voters were using State elections to send a message to Canberra one thing that feed that was for most of Howards 11 years the federal ALP were a joke and only got there act together under Rudd.
Great theory, but you’ll find Howard’s best state federally was WA and each time he came here he was treated like a hero and note that in the last Federal Election he only lost 1 seat which was Hasluck, even though the ones he retained and gained were by smaller margins than previously.
further to previous post! based on the strenght of the Economy I expect the ALP too be returned, I’m sure some outer suburbian seats and Mining booths may send a message to Canberra about the increasing cost of living and the possiblem impact of proposed climate change policies.
I’m reading people dismissing these polls, I recall people mocked Glen and co for predicting the Liberals would make gains in WA which actually happened
I think this election will be interesting for so many reasons for the WA Liberal party is a joke, the Government while sitting on the best economy in the country has several question marks hanging over it and whenever ther is a major redrawing of the seats always creates a few interesting results.
Winston, there were no conspiracy theories anyway. I think I’ll take more notice of Mumble, someone who not only knows what he is talking about but also someone that doesn’t have an axe to grind. Your theory should be called the “IF theory”. It is full of them.
“I’m reading people dismissing these polls, I recall people mocked Glen and co for predicting the Liberals would make gains in WA which actually happened”
I think you mean gain ie one seat. Overall there was a swing to Labor of 2.1%.
Hmm, This doesn’t look good for the Libs.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24191431-2761,00.html
And here is the Liberal Prison Plan.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24191504-5017005,00.html
“And here is the Liberal Prison Plan.”
Do they think that crime will increase so much if they are elected that WA will need 2 new prisons.
Well they have announced plans to introduce Mandatory Prison Terms of between 3-12 months Minimum for assaulting Public Officers, which was drafted in consultation with the Police Union, so they will need more room for the extra people sent to jail.
GB.
No axe. No theory. You are jumping at shadows.
Just don’t think we should dismiss poll results because they don’t fit our personal prejudices.
I agree Winston.
More perspective required GB.
The cash-for-comment scandal can’t be good for the Libs. He’s one of their better performers, but he’s in a do-or-die battle with Mick Murray, and I suspect Murray’s chances just got noticeably better.
Yep, And that seat Collie Preston was one of those Marginals highlighted in Westpoll which was a Dead Heat.
This has come at a VERY bad time for the Libs.
Frank
you were saying exactly the same thing last week about the Buswell story and look how the polls turned out on that?
But this is FAR more serious than the Buswell story and will be the local issue in that particular seat.
Yeah, if it were in another seat I wouldn’t place that much emphasis on it. But Murray is a very popular member, and Thomas already had a battle on his hands to win that one, and would need to hope there was enough of a statewide swing to overcome Murray’s personal vote. The last thing he needs is further individual factors playing against him in that seat.
But remember who leaked the email in last week’s story, it was inside the Liberal Party itself from people who may syill be angry that Buswell has been rewarded with a senior shadow cabinet desicion.
It may not have translated to anything in this poll, which I put down as a honeymoon poll whenever a leader is replaced, but there is still 3 weeks to go, and people will slowly realise the implications as the campaign progresses.
Thanks Gary! I wasn’t aware that WA swung over all to the ALP
76 Winston – “No axe. No theory.” LOL
77 Edward – LOL
Everybody wait for Barnett to deliver the coup de grace… he’ll announce the next power station in WA will be gas or nuclear powered, and get thumped in Collie. Yes, I’m being cynical, but the Libs seem good at shooting themselves in the foot lately… I wouldn’t be completely surprised if that actually happens.
For those who want to believe these polls are dead accurate I stick by what I said at 38.
I wonder if Bob Maumill will change his tune on the Labor Party now that their Racing Policy has been released, since Bob has been a very vocal critic about the lack of spending on the Horse Racing Industry.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/policy/racingpolicy160808.pdf
For those playing at home, these are the LIberal Party “Policies” announced to date.
http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&Itemid=141
Westpoll is intersting but its samples too small for mine , both State wise and by electorate , do not undrstand why except for cost against diminished crdibility they do such small samples Newspoll however is a reliable “guide’ and 1100 people weighted by population and MOE of 3% is fine
Providing subsequent Newspolls show same data , ythis looks like a close Labor win but a nail biter with seats decided by few votes
Good signal out of Poll was Labor/Carpenter with significant leads over Barnett/Liberals in most categories , and for a close Liberal win , Barnett/Libewrals should be at least even if not in front in these , and thats an area I’m interested in next Poll rather than just State poll % , which can be misleading
ALP How To Vote Cards are up on the ALP Candidates page.
http://visionwa.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=26
Just noticed that not all seats are covered, but the Morley ticket is interesting , Labor are givinng their 3rd preference to John D’Orazio.
http://www.visionwa.org.au/htv/morley.pdf
Newspoll’s last 6 consolidated polls results since last electon , started from from Apl/June 07 , then July/Sept 07 , Oct/Dec 07 , first 2 quarters this year and 14/8 one
Taking Apl/June07 one as natural base to compare to Poll movements since , (but ignore Oct/Dec 07 one) , most of movements in Liberal vote % up or down hav followed movements in Greens vote % up or down
Gieven Libs ar ‘right’ of Labor and Greens ar further ‘left’ than ‘left’ Labor , these Liberal/greens movements seem surprising (and MOE on Greens share does not seem enough)
meant to say only EXCLUDE movement July/Sept Poll 07 vs Oct/Dec Poll 07 comparison of Libs vs Greens , but compare all other consecutive Poll movements of Libs vs Greens
Ron,
It would be interesting who the Greens preference when their HTV cards are released, as I notice the ALP are giving their first Preference to the Greens, from the HTV cards that are up at present.
The Nationals ticket will be interesting, to say the least – especially if they stay true to their promise and preference the Greens/ALP.
Absolutely Frank , very intersting
Unfortunately Greens made pref negotiations a public issue over uranium , sent ‘mixed’ messages to left’ voters that Labor and CLP ar same , which is negative on Labor vote (but zero effect on liberal vote)
It doesn’t matter whether one supports Carpenters ‘exploration’ but no mines decison or LCP will mine policy OR one opposes exploration aan d any mining , result of Greens public unbranium ‘negotions’ only could have ‘hurt’ Labor vote , to what extent one does not know
BUT that Greens vs Liberals News poll Trend Frank is strange ??
Also note ‘others’ got 11% last electon , know how that pref split ?
Donkey Vote in Churchlands 🙂
http://www.visionwa.org.au/htv/churchlands.pdf
“Blair Says:
For the benefit of those of us who are ignorant easterners, are the Daylight Saving Party for it or against it?”
They are for daylight saving.
http://www.daylightsavingparty.org.au/index.htm
Talk about decency/any clue deprivation syndrome.
The WA Libs have now come up with a real doosey to try and hit Labor over the head with.
Apparently the police here did not release for general exhibition a security camera tape which may or may not have shown someone who may or may not have had some involvement with the sickening Cottesloe serial killings in 1966/67.
This was a grave mistake according to the Liberals, and releasing the tape may have led to the apprehension of the offender.
A sombre Colin Barnett gave a press conference expressing feigned indignation over this, how terrible it was, and what a disgrace the local plod are. The implication of course was (is) that it has come to light in Labor’s watch, and Labor are therefore somehow responsible for the police failure, if not the actual murders.
Pathetic, sad stuff, beneath Colin’s usual standards, and a half baked opportunistic attempt to grt some mileage out of other people’s terrible misfortune.
The ironic thing is, that it all happened when the Libs were in power, in fact they remained in power for four years after the events, the very four years when the release of the tape may, just possibly, have been of maximum benefit.
Sad and ignoble.
1996/1997.