Newspoll: 59-41

Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …

UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

Comments Page 15 of 19
1 … 14 15 16 … 19

  1. As for the reporting of this I think there are questions to be asked.
    There are questions about the motives of the paper concerned. There are questions about the journalist’s integrity (given past performances) and there are questions about the evidence provided in this article.
    That doesn’t mean the government can’t and shouldn’t do better in this area. It can and should.

  2. Sure, having the meeja onside could be a good thing, but how long do the naysayers want to persist? It seems like a pretty crap life to me. Just because the system was cultivated to be one particular way doesn’t necessarily mean it should continue. If Rudd’s office is ideologically opposed to daily meeja coverage I don’t see it relenting. They will have an end game in mind that results in cultural change either from the top down, the bottom up, or both at the same time. Sure they’ll make mistakes, but it’s not like there’s any evidence they’re not thinking…so far.

    Food for thought:
    Given the minimal people required to staff an online newsroom these days it wouldn’t be that hard to run a service out of Rudd’s office these days.
    I reckon about 40 press releases a day spread out over the various departments ought to suffocate the politics departments of the Australian meeja.
    I’m not saying it’s right – I’m just saying it’s possible.

    As I’ve posed before though – I think this years polling goes a long way to proving that the general public is NOT listening to the meeja re politics, and it’s days as an advertising revenue draw card must surely be numbered, which means staff cuts are coming, and the current meeja behaviour supports this – they’re fighting a game of career musical chairs.

  3. 698 BB
    I beleive your analysis passes the pub test of reasonablness.
    Somewhere along the line there has been a disconnect of relevance in political reporting.
    (perhaps too much journalistic teaching of Watergate???)

    Earwax DOES NOT relate to one’s ability to govern a country, run a board etc…
    If pushing staff hard meant you weren’t a good CEO, there would not be many CEO’s left.
    Hard areses at the top employ shit kickers to enforce their law down the chain, and to take the fall if required – it’s a given.

    Everyday people in everyday life know these things, but apparently journo’s do not.

  4. It’s a pity John Lyon’s bitchy tirade dominates today’s WEEKEND AUSTRALIAN.
    There are rather more balanced pieces from George Megalongenis and Imre Saulinski today, and an article on the NT Aboriginal intervention largely complimentary towards Rudd and Macklin.
    I suspect most punters couldn’t give a stuff about a whinging public service and journalists! Once the tax cuts and other benefits start flowing into people’s pockets from July 1, this other nonsense won’t even register on the radar!
    Rudd works his staff hard: so what? Do we expect him to do otherwise?

  5. The media are good at going off in their own direction!

    While we can take the piss out of the Governments position on Binge drinking, generally speaking the Federal Government is doing an okay job which is why it is a long way infront.

    If I recall correctly at this stage of Howard’s first term one or two ministers had already resigned due to ministral standards.

    With talk about the Media’s coverage of politics I put forward a little question! in Victoria what is the most common issues raised in letters to the Premier?

    I will make it mulitable choose

    A) 2am Lockout
    B) North-South Pipeline
    C) Decriminalisation of abortion
    D) Desalination Plant
    E) Petrol prices

    Before you answer go and read today’s papers and I will return with the answer this time tomorrow!

  6. Lyons seems to have a thing about the fact that the two “advisers” are 28. Has he not heard of the Age Descrimination Act 2004.

    He implies that these two have done something wrong by not putting their age on their CVs.

    Does he realise that an employer has no right to know an employees age? In fact if they decide to not employ someone because of age they are probably in breach of the Act.

    Of course he is trying to imply that they are inexperienced because they are young – which again is skating on thin ice.

  7. To make it a little harder I have added one possible answer

    A) 2am Lockout
    B) North-South Pipeline
    C) Decriminalisation of abortion
    D) Desalination Plant
    E) Petrol prices
    F) Myki Ticketing

  8. 704 I’m guessing C) Decriminalisation of abortion because they have the most powerful lobby group in numbers and funds.

    Meanwhile, behind closed doors there are some reaol issues evolving that are getting just soooo much coverage:
    http://business.watoday.com.au/bracing-for-the-new-lowcarb-economy-20080620-2u6o.html?page=-1

    I just love the big carbon emitters seeking incentives….
    How about this: “If you don’t produce something I want to buy for the same or lower price than your opposition then I won’t buy any of it?”
    If a windfarm costs less than a carbon sequestration system then it’s a bit of a no-brainer. These threats that boards won’t make economically ration decisions on behalf or their shareholders and hold the Australian economy to ransom are laughable.
    Go Penny.

  11. I wouldn’t get too upset. Most punters couldn’t give a stuff about whinging public servants and journos, they’ll be getting their tax cuts and family benefits from July 1, that’ll keep the mob content!
    John Lyons is a well known Liberal hack!

  12. Re: Me at 620

    Just noticed that Morgan has changed their headline on the as yet unpublished page to a very boring ‘Rudd ALP Nelson LNP’. Still no poll though.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4302/

    I think Peter (at 622) was probably right and Roy was just having a dig and seeing if we picked up on it. It was a good for a laugh while it lasted – very Milnesque.

  13. Well it depends on whether you judge politics from what will keep ‘the mob’ content. I’m still not convinced the me-too tax cuts are at all necessary and wonder what the money could’ve been used for instead. I’m quite happy to listen to ‘whinging’ public servants from time to time.

    It’s funny how people’s tunes change when their party of choice wins government. If the Coalition had won Government again the same people would be whinging about the inflationary impact of the tax cuts and talking about how greedy people are for wanting them.

  14. LTEP: If you’re struggling with a mortgage, high petrol prices and the increased cost of living, tax cuts will be very well received!

  17. 715 LTEP – Ok ,let’s do it your way. The voting public will hate these tax cuts. They’ll get nothing out of. They won’t even find them helpful. How could they be? They’ll only put extra money in their pockets. No help whatsoever. There, that makes sense now doesn’t it?

  18. I didn’t say the public will hate the tax cuts. My point was that Government’s shouldn’t base policy decisions around what the public wants. Nor do I base my judgments on policy decisions on their popularity with the public.

  19. LOL, just read the full article referenced by Ruawake at #710.

    The headline is:

    Captain Chaos and the workings of inner circle

    Yeah, but who calls Rudd “Captain Chaos”?

    Well, nobody, it seems. Lyons says early on in the article,

    “…if he keeps governing as he is doing now, he’ll earn the nickname Captain Chaos.”

    And we know who’ll make sure Rudd “earns” it, don’t we? Talk about a self-fulfilling promise. Cue: Shanahan, Milne, Akerman and Uhlmann (he of the famous “House Of Card” analogy, as in “Labor can’t win the election because they’re a house of cards.”).

    Since when have these jerks been right about anything so far?

    Two people he quotes at length, Uhlmann and Laurie Oakes have vastly different views on the Rudd Prime Ministerial office.

    Uhlmann:

    “The longer Labor plays short-term politics on petrol, the harder the long game will become.”

    I see, and Chris Uhlmann wouldn’t be one of the chief urgers for playing politics over petrol pricing, would he?

    Oakes:

    “I have also heard the word dysfunctional used,” Oakes says. “I have been told that Rudd’s people insist there must be something positive for him to announce or do every day and that this creates strains. It is hard to determine how much truth there is in this.

    But he says he has never had the feeling with Rudd’s people that he has been misled or lied to. On the question of lack of experience, he says: “They don’t come much more experienced than David Epstein.”

    The rest of the quotees are the same: half say it’s true. Half say it’s hogwash. Divided cleanly along political lines, I would say, too, from a list of those prepared to go on the record.

    For the many who aren’t prepared to go on the record, Lyons has an excuse for their silence: they’re too afraid to speak out lest they be cut off at the knees. See? Fear reigns. Political journalists scared to speak out. Must be the first time in Western politics that that’s ever happened. What a bunch of woozes. Cut ’em off at the head and do the job properly Kevin.

    Clearly the old “Whitlam Government” ploy is being dusted off here again. Use the word “crisis” thirty seven times per paragraph and hope like hell some of it sticks. Rudd’s two 28 year old staffer are described as having the fate of the country in their hands. Oooo-Ahhh! Our lives and our nation are being run by a couple of Gen-Y-ers. Chaos! I tell you! Crisis!

    Then there’s the criticism that Rudd keeps too many promises. Can youse all see it if he broke one? The same hacks narking him for keeping to his election committments would be sneering at him for being a naive idiot who’s foolish enough to make promises. I mean, did Howard ever stick to his committments? Nah. He was a pro.

    All true, but now he’s gone boys and you’d better get used to it.

  20. LTEP

    You called them me-too tax cuts. If you read Swans reply to the 2007 budget I think you will find that these tax cuts follow the formula he espoused.

    If you use terms like me-too you diminish your argument. 😛

  22. 705
    Mexican Beemer Says:
    June 21st, 2008 at 2:00 pm

    The media are good at going off in their own direction!

    And the number off letter writers depends on how well organized the lobby group is; we are talking about the catholic church here. The answer will no doubt be:

    C) Decriminalisation of abortion

  23. bb
    just back from the “deep south” actually blue ribbon territory,attended a few rotary meetings etc.
    one thing stuck all thhrough the various meetings was a palpable sense of things being done and peoples concerns listened to
    Rudd and co are creating a groundswell that belies the wankers who criticise him
    In the country after a decade of inaction, real progress is happening and was stagggered me was the bipartisan support at ground level,
    If Nelson is to have any chance he must end the negativity line and come up with IDEAS that have substance and relevance,the hacks that are berating rudd are simply making the job of selling the fibs that much harder

  25. I hope you’re right, ruawake.

    I also like this from the AAP story:

    A senior staffer is reported as saying there’s increasing paranoia about criticism in the PM’s office and that Mr Rudd doesn’t know half of what’s going on.

    …which is a direct steal from the original Lyons story.

    Get your stories straight fellas.

    Is Rudd being kept in the dark about “half of what’s going on”, or is he a total control freak, micromanaging every tiny facet of government?

    Is it good for him to take a doctor on an overseas trip (Kerry-AnneWalsh) or bad for him to take a doctor to look after the travelling party (Daily Telegraph)

    Did he act too soon on Belinda Iguana (everybody), or too late (everybody else)?

    Is he making it all up as he goes along (Lyons) or driving everyone crazy because he always reads his speeches (Annabelle Crabbe)?

    Or are they all just $hitty because the only thing that can be called an “Insider” is an ABC TV program that has an audience of about 23 people?
    Is he keeping his promises or is he mad to keep his promises?

  29. The worthlessness of the Australian media, a symptom of right-wing media ownership demanding no quality from employees apart form producing an overall anti-labor pro-right-wing public presentation.

    Journalists often don’t even bother to make out they are taking the path of criticism by analysis, it is simply slagging-off from the sidelines. In fact so called political journalists are basically engaging in nothing more than name calling.

    Australians would find it hard to know if the policies of Rudd so far are good, bad or indifferent – there is very little discussion and analysis, just the cheering of one side.

    Morgan’s ‘joke’ headline they other day ironically pretty much represents the way the MSM behave – choose the position/headline then manufacture the story. It helps if you coordinate it with the LNP first which they sometimes appear to do.

    It is all pretty trashy stuff. I have gone from reading every major Aust paper every day to basically reading none or only incidentally. They offer nothing useful to read. I can generally pick up the running stories from ABC AM/PM and ABC news and seeing Australian current news presented on Chinese TV in Chinese.

  32. Andrew: so someone finally replied to one of your emails? Good for Mr Morgan!
    It was a nice touch from Rudd today at the QLD ALP Conference, paying tribute to those poor two blokes who died on that construction site, it got a good run on the TV news tonight!

  35. And here is the Poisoned Little Person 🙂

    [IN retrospect, this past week should have been the time that death notices were written for Brendan Nelson’s leadership of the Liberal Party.

    Certainly that’s the view of his opponents inside the Liberal caucus. Why? The answer to that question is a complex whirl of polls, atmospherics and ill-discipline and, on Nelson’s behalf, indecision.
    The polls issue is extant, but its implication is less clear; in two key surveys this week, by Neilsen and Newspoll, Nelson continued to make little or no headway against Rudd Labor. In the case of Newspoll, he actually lost ground.

    Behind the scenes, senior Liberals are shaking their heads at this outcome. Their response is driven not by malice, but despair.

    Nelson, however, has done well on the retail politics of the Budget. Even those within the Liberal Party room who are implacably opposed to him and think he has no hope of winning the next election concede that he blindsided Kevin Rudd on the issue of petrol prices and that the Prime Minister has looked shoddy ever since.

    Nelson exposed the fraud that is the Government’s FuelWatch scheme and left Rudd arguing about a 0.7c reduction in pump prices versus a 5c cut on the Coalition side.

    Neither “solution” matters very much at all. But in outbidding Rudd, Nelson was able to claim the consumer high ground.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23901434-5005374,00.html

  36. [Nelson exposed the fraud that is the Government’s FuelWatch scheme….]

    So the fecal Dwarf has decided it is a ‘fraud’ even though Samuels [not a dumb person or someone who can be intimidated] is in favour of it. I think the Dwarf is the fraud for calling it a fraud. Deciding to call a policy a ‘fraud’ without giving any smallest argument to support it simply reveals his a personal hatred of Labor and love affair with Liberals coming out in his writing.

    The Dwarf short of things with which to attack the government has had to revert to the aged issue of fuel watch and Nelson’s near irrelevant 5c – which his even his own side dissed at the first instance.

    The Dwarf wont admit that it only ever became an ‘issue’ because the MSM had decided to over blow it and push it ad nauseum in their never ending endeavours to lift the Liberal party out of its cesspit.

    [..But in outbidding Rudd, Nelson was able to claim the consumer high ground…]
    Milne is living in some weird sort of fantasy land or this is simply just pushing a view he hopes some ignorant reader will accept.

    There was no consumer ‘high ground’ to be had on this….that ground was swamped by international oil markets and the fact that the whole world is in the same boat.

  37. Interesting that Milne is seeking to coin a new phrase: “..hollowing out..” in reference to Rudd’s support in the polls. It seems as if “honeymoon” is losing it’s lustre.

  39. And what does ‘hollowing out’ mean? Is it a version of the theory, popular before last year’s election, that people were saying they were going to vote Labor just to tease the Libs?

    There have been many attempts by the media over the last eighteen months to interpret the ALP’s polling figures as somehow not meaning what they say they do.

    Why, why, why can’t they just admit they’ve got the community sentiment wrong and start again from scratch?

    I could write better – and more realistic – attacks on the Rudd government than these guys.

  40. Actually, it’s such a bad article by Milne it’s brilliant.

    I love the bit that says that the Liberals believe that Nelson is holding them back – that without him there, voters will be able to shift to Liberals because they’re disappointed with the government.

    So it’s not the brand that’s the problem, it’s the leader. (An inversion of Howard’s statement that, because he was polling better than the party was, the problem was with the party and not with him).

    Haven’t they learnt anything from their experiences in the States? Or indeed from the Hawke years? I’m happy to let them play musical chairs with the leadership for a few more terms (obviously) but a strong Opposition would be nice.

    As for the disappointment with the government riff – coming from Lib parliamentarians – how can they judge this? I assume that the average Lib pollie has never been happy with Rudd’s government, so their feelings haven’t changed. How can they then accurately judge the mood of the electorate?

    Finally, a quick LOL at the inference that Pearce SHOULD have been promoted. He got the highest swing against a sitting member in Victoria, about the same as Mal Brough’s despite not having anywhere near the profile. That’s all I know about him, but it means that he MUST have major problems.

    All in all, an hilarious article, one which probably deserves its own thread, there’s so much there to analyse.

  41. “Retail politics”… read: spin.

    What is the point of a doomed leader, spouting an outright damaging policy winning the “retail politics” of any situation, two and a half years before an election, by which time the whole world could be completely different to the one we are in now? Only a Rudd-obsessed weasel with nothing to write about could possibly think that this is worth dreaming up as a valid subject for discussion

    There is a growing perception that a change in leadership is the permission note that the electorate needs to be able to admit that the Rudd Government has been something of a disappointment.

    Here we go again: The Messiah Complex. Six months after chucking out the Howard government, with the Opposition doing little better than scoring obscure points of order during question time and going off at the mouth without their leader’s permission, with computers beginnng to flood into schools, tax cuts about to become operative, the Apology taken care of, Howard gone to the cricket, Costello, Downer and Abbott relegated to the back benches, the whole world in crisis due to the price of oil and the sub-prime disaster, the Libs out of power in every state, and the polls emerging triumphant for the Labor government, all the public is looking for is a “permission note” to start turning away from Rudd. This will be easily accomplished by the simple act of substituting Malcolm Turnbull (or Peter Costello… or someone, anyone) for Brendan Nelson in the Liberal Party’s big chair. “Retail politics”, cheap gimmicks and the sneering wisecracks of the Commentariat, will be the sword which cuts the sentimental ties the public has with Labor and its leader.

    Holy $hit! And Glenn Milne goes on about other people being delusional?
    .

  43. Why does anyone bother reading the tired old crap from the Poisoned Dwarf?
    His wife works for Crosby/Textor, that says it all!

  44. Did anyone see Andrew Bolt on “Insiders”? Petulance personified. George was talking sense and Andrew didn’t want to know about it.

  45. INsiders definately more balanced today. Who said our feedback wouldnt make a difference??!!! OK, so maybe it wasnt our feedback, but at least the host acknowledged that the “honeymooon” wasnt over and George was a voice of reason. Even Bolt is struggling to come up with much

  46. Yes, Glen Milne is not the only one being delusional. Andrew Bolt said on Insiders that their is a strong chance that neither leader (Nelson or Rudd) will be there by the next election.

    Here is a Prime Minister who has never gone close to losing a poll, won his first election easily, and is the highest PPM ever recorded, but Bolt reckons he won’t be leading the labor party at the next election.

    Poor b@stard I nearly feel sorry for him.

  48. Maybe INSIDERS was more balanced today because Jim Middleton is a more competent host than Barry Cassidy? A better panel too: George talks a lot of sense always, Annabelle Crabb is one of the better journos! Bolt of course is a frigging nutjob, but what’s new? LOL

  49. Progressive 748 – Yes Insiders was better today. Jim Middleton gave the buffon (Truss) a bit of a workover and Geo Meg was, as usual, very balanced and objective.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 15 of 19
1 … 14 15 16 … 19