Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …
UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Another example of what I wrote yesterday:
Julie Bishop in the Age article:
John Lyons’ article in The Australian yesterday:
Well? Which is it? “Rudd is a control freak who knows everything that goes on”, or “Rudd doesn’t know the half of what is going on”?
As to Insiders: is Julia Gillard the Deputy PM while Rudd is away overseas, and thus should be the one who deals with trivia like the Belinda Neal case? Or is Rudd the control freak PM wherever he goes and should be the one who deals with the trivia? Is Rudd expected to have copies of The Sunday Telegraph faxed to his car in Tokyo?
On the one hand Rudd will lose office to Gillard before the next election. On the other Rudd is an obsessive, totally motivated by spin and criis control, unable to delegate. He was either too early to counsel Neal, too late, or Gillard is after his job.
They try to be careful that the same journalist doesn’t put both contradictory points. The usual method is to get one to say “this” and another to say “that”. The next step is to write a column saying that Rudd is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. Pretty soon he has “nowhere to turn”. After that the word “crisis” keeps on coming up.
Oh, and I forgot Bolt’s classic that “the Rudd government is in deep trouble”. apparently the stellar polls prove it.
LOL Andrew. You wish, mate.
George Meglogenis was exactly correct in saying that people understand the complexities of petrol prices and want the PM to work on long term solutions. It was too painful for Bolt to listen to.
Goodonya George great to see a journo say it the way he really believes for a change.
What about the new policy from the liberal party. To reduce the exice by 5 cents for now, then 10, and then 20 in the long term if possible!
Economic credibility of Costello – Down the tubes. LOL
Sorry for triple posting but I just read in the Sunday Telegraph that Rudd is in trouble with senior public servants. Apparently Mr.. L’Estrange was not invited on some trip or other and this was seen as a “major snub” and led to rumours that he might be long for this world, jobwize. So L’Estrange is supposed to have tenure?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23901324-5001021,00.html
They’re already quoting each other.
Combine this with the AAP story yesterday quoting the Australian’s story, and now this one, quoting the Australian’s story, plus adding a bit more, and expect tomorrow or the next day to see in The Australian “reports say Mr. Rudd’s office is in permanent crisis mode”.
BB,
“reports say Mr. Rudd’s office is in permanent crisis mode”.
They’ll probably refer to PB as a third party endorsement of the story now.
Cheers.
Bushfire Bill @ #751
I’d dismiss Julie Bishop. When she calls Rudd a “renowned control freak”, I hear sour grapes because it goes to the heart of her grievance: that Rudd controls the government.
😀
When journos start incestuously quoting of each other as evidence, you know they got nothing and are feeling the sting of irrelevancy.
Truss has just destroyed any little economic credibility the Coalition may have maintained. Labor should have a field day modelling what a 20c excise cut would do to the budget bottom line, while at the same time protaying them as being all over the shop on this issue.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23903478-5003402,00.html
protaying – make that portraying
Some of you were wondering what SA’s MrX was going to do on the big stage. His first major act is to introduce a bill to ban ATMs from pubs.
This will be a wedge for the Ruddster. I have it on very good authority that when Ruddski made some anti-gambling noises before the last election that he was taken aside by the gambling/ hotel lobby and had the errors of his ways explained to him. He promised to never, ever be naughty again.
Will Labor favour principles or pragmatism? I report, you decide.
New Senator Nick Xenophon’s first act – banning pub ATMs
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23903510-5006301,00.html
760 Diogenes – “I have it on very good authority that when Ruddski made some anti-gambling noises before the last election that he was taken aside by the gambling/ hotel lobby and had the errors of his ways explained to him. He promised to never, ever be naughty again.”
Glenn Milne has changed his name.
I’m all for regulating gambling, no argument, but can anyone explain why a problem gambler, if this became law, wouldn’t firstly take wads of money to their pub and secondly go to an ATM in their local area if they did run out? Desperate people will do desperate things.
We are talking about the problem gamblers not the average person who has no problem limiting themselves aren’t we?
Gary
We will see who’s right. And I’m hardly a Liberal supporter. He’s Howard-lite. I’m suggesting that Rudd is more interested in electability than values.
If you look at Ruddski’s schedule at the last election, you will see he had a meeting with the NSW Hotel lobby very shortly after making anti-gambling noises. They made a deal me thinks.
Gary
It’s a fundamental human trait to think you might win at gambling so lots of them will not take that much money there because they won’t need it. Also, some will think “I’ll only take $100 and if I lose, I’ll quit then.” Having an ATM means they can keep losing.
Obviously they can go to the shopping centre etc to get more money out but at least this makes it harder for them and they get out into the real world for a while. A puritan nanny-state pollie like Rudd is really going to have to contort himself into a knot to avoid supporting this one.
I think it’s natural for teething problems every new Government has them, the question facing Rudd is not is there a proble but how does he deal with them.
The Liberals are trying really hard to find faults with the Government but are falling for the old trick of playing the man not the ball.
The following is the answer to yesterday’s question
C) Decriminalisation of abortion
A) 2am Lockout
B) North-South Pipeline
D) Desalination Plant
F) Myki Ticketing
E) Petrol prices
It is true that the Catholic Church has a loud voice but the point was to show that one of the reasons why the Government is travelling so well while the Media seems to be pianting a different picture the voters haev different concerns.
Yes increasing Interest Rates and high Petrol prices overtime will hurt Rudd but at this stage the people screaming the loudest are natural Liberal voters just like in the 1996-2004 period the loudest voices were natural ALP voters!
I think Rudd has correctly handled the Belinda Neal issue and Julia Gillard’s status as a talent is ever increasing!
No one should expect the Liberals to be doing any better in the polls!
Problem gambling is one great big beat up by minority groups who want a headline and think they know everything but know absolutely nothing.
Sure there are problem gamblers, but that number pales into insignificance as opposed to problems with drugs and alcohol and other problems in our society. Responsible gambling practices in Australia are among the best in the world. Fact!
What I completely detest is those minority and religious groups and the likes of Tim Costello continually telling people HOW they should live their lives.
“No one should expect the Liberals to be doing any better in the polls!”
Why? Compare the polls with Labor in their first term of opposition after the 96 election!
The Labor Party would want to save all its energies and prepare for the real contest for the next election. It will be the battle of the heavyweights – not the lightweights of Brenda and Straightbull.
Rudd .v. Costello
The MSM and The-Top-End-Of-Town are already organising and preparing for the battle as we speak!
764 Diogenes – “Ruddski’s”, “Howard-lite” – me thinks you are no Rudd supporter though.
“They made a deal me thinks.” This suggests pure speculation on your part, not fact.
Put those two thoughts together and you have someone with an anti Rudd disposition pushing an anti – gambling barrow.
Costello is out the back door. He knows he’s not that popular.
Gary
No, I’m not that fond of Rudd. I prefer Julia Gillard.
Your second statement is a classic “ad hominem” argument. It does not deal with the criticism made. It only tries to argue that someone who disagrees with Rudd and gambling has a barrow or bias, rather than having a rational opinion. I’ts a Howard tactic.
And the meeting between Rudd and the NSW hoteliers is not speculation. Rudd sold out and promised not to rock the boat in exchange for the hoteliers not campaigning against him.
Centre
I see a few suicides a year from “problem gambling”. The victims and their families don’t seem to think that it’s a beat-up. Perhaps they are wrong and should just keep quiet.
I have a feeling Rudd will make a few compromises with Mr X to get bills through the senate. He seemed pretty interested in getting rid of pokies in clubs during the election so maybe he’ll start with clubs first to keep Mr X happy.
What Federal Law is Nick X going to use to limit ATMs?
Diogenes @ 771
And the meeting between Rudd and the NSW hoteliers is not speculation. Rudd sold out and promised not to rock the boat in exchange for the hoteliers not campaigning against him.
And the evidence for this is? The fact he met some hoteliers in NSW? Seems to be a mighty long bow you’re pulling.
Do they even have pokies in pubs in NSW? I thought it was mostly sporting clubs.
ruawake
It’s in the article at 760.
ANTI-GAMBLING advocate Nick Xenophon will move a private member’s bill banning ATMs from pubs and clubs with poker machines as one of his first acts as a new senator.
Senator Xenophon said 250,000 Australians had a gambling problem because of poker machines.
“We know from the Productivity Commission that for every problem gambler there are seven people affected by that, so close to one in 10 Australians are in some way worse off because of the gambling, the pokies bug, and that’s something that we need to tackle,” he said.
MayoFeral
I was stirring up a highly placed gambling lobbyist about Rudd’s comments about gambling (the lobbyist used to be a senior Labor adviser). He assured me it wouldn’t be a problem for the reasons mentioned above.
“And the meeting between Rudd and the NSW hoteliers is not speculation”. Now whose adopting the Howard tactic. The speculation I was referring to was not whether Rudd met the hotliers but whether he promised what you say he did.
No evidence, a thing against Rudd and an anti gambling disposition. That’s not speculation on my part. All I have to do is read your posts. I’m not arguing the gambling issue, I’ve stated my position earlier. I’m trying to obtain your evidence. I suggest you don’t have any, just a barrow to push. Prove me wrong.
“He assured me it wouldn’t be a problem for the reasons mentioned above.” I maybe a bit thick Diogenes but, having gone back and read your posts, I still do not know what you mean by this.
States control Pokies, States control liquor licencing.
So Nick X’s bill must be aimed at the Banks. It will be a nightmare to draft.
Gary
Am I supposed to have a written agreement between Rudd and the gambling lobby? It would have been a verbal agreement. The fact that there is no written agreement posted on PollBludger does not mean it’s not true.
In the end, Rudd’s response will give us the answer.
Gary
I should add that I am not anti-gambling. I gamble quite often. I’ll even have a bet that Rudd either squashes or waters down the bill to a homeopathic strength.
ruawake
Mr X said something about that being one of his reasons for leaving State for Federal politics. Personally, it sounded like a crock to me,
I think the idea of banning ATMs has been floated in various reports/inquiries so the substance behind Mr X is quite weighty
Mayo
lots of pubs are in NSW are owned by a few individuals ,pokies are a huge reason that pubs sell for millions .
Dio
the meeting happened for sure but i believe the word compromise would be more appropriate.
I would hazard a guess that a timetable was agreed to much like any other industry facing rationalisation
the real politics will be when Mr X has to vote on contentious legislation
gusface
Sounds like you know more than me about the meeting. Rudd didn’t talk about it for the rest of the campaign and the hoteliers didn’t come out against him. As you say, compromise was probably the better word.
ACA MONDAY EVENING: Supposedly new shocking revelations about the Belinda Neal/Della Bosca “Iguanagate Affair”.
re 771,
“I see a few suicides a year from problem gambling”. The victims and their families don’t seem to think that it’s a beat-up. Perhaps they are wrong and should just keep quiet.”
Do you really see a few suicides a year from problem gambling Diogenes? What about suicides from drug and alcohol and depression and many other related factors in our society? Mate, you have got to be joking!
I am not saying there are no problem gamblers, and I would be the last to go into bat for the hoteliers – believe me. But whenever these minority groups need a headline – they target gambling.
Take that Tip2 (Tim Costello) for e.g. He felt so happy for taking the pokies of a couple of major companies in Victoria. Bloody stupid fool. What did he achieve?
– He will cost Victorian tax payers 1.2 billion in compensation.
– Responsible gambling practices will now be jeopardised.
– The same number of poker machines will be in place.
– I repeat, the same number of poker machines will be in place.
Tip2 thought he did so good, I repeat, bloody stupid fool.
respond to Centre’s comment comparing the ALP’s poll numbers in 1996 to the Liberals in 2008!
If my memory is correct the Liberals were quite some distance infront but Howard’s ministers started getting caught up by the ministral standards from there the poll numbers narrowed.
Centre
Obviously many are depressed as well. Some have alcohol and drug problems, mainly prescription drugs. It’s a complex issue.
The most amazing thing about Tim Costello, is the fact that he actually thinks he hurt those two companies I referred to. Take Tatts Group for e.g.
– They will reconstruct their business model over the next four years.
– Aggressively maximise gaming revenue.
– Substantially cut operating costs.
– Receive a windfall from sale of assets.
– Save millions in future licensing fees which would have gone to the Vic government.
– Receive something like 70 cents a share ($600m) from the Vic government in compensation.
Yep, bloody stupid fool Tip2. He should stick to religion or something he knows something about.
In 1996 only two Howard Ministers were boned.
Senator Jim Short 14 Oct 1996
Senator Brian Gibson 15 Oct 1996
“Due to Ministerial impropriety in relation to conflict of interest concerning bank licences.”
It was not until late 1997 when David Jull, John Sharp and Peter McGauran were found to be dodgy travelers.
Then nothing for 10 years until Ian Campbell was caught up in Brian Bourke’s web.
M B, I disagree.
I think it’s a case of Rudd being much more popular than Brenda, as opposed to Howard being popular than Beazley.
Btw, enjoyed your posts.
Just one more thing about Tim Costello. He really thinks he influenced the Vic government in making the decisions re poker machines that they did! LOL
But there was someone who stands to gain from that decision???
Let me add one more point to 787.
– Tatts Group are now a takeover target.
Yep, you really did well Tip2.
It looks Mr X is going to block Fuelwatch. I think Rudd will need to find some triggers to bring on a DD to get some of the legislation through.
GB, Rudd may not be too peturbed about this because (a) Fuelwatch may not work and (b) He can claim the senate wont let him act on petrol.
On another subject, as the Corby case is revealed to have been based on a bogus defence, Dolly is revealed to have told her lawyers to look at her brothers. Weird
Downer denies special knowledge of Corby case
http://au.news.yahoo.com/080622/21/17dvb.html?f=mv
Senator Xenophon said he hoped to meet Mr Harradine in the next week or two.
“I’m happy to get pointers from all sources. Brian Harradine did a good job in extracting a good deal for his state on a whole range of issues,” he said.
”(The Senate is) supposed to be a house of review, it’s supposed to be a states’ house and that’s the role I intend to undertake on behalf of my state.”
So is Mr X saying he will pass legislation if SA gets more pork?
Whilst it is almost not worth commenting on Bolt or Milne (what would you expect them to say??), it is quite bizarre the way many reporters and commentators cannot simply accept the simple proposition that Rudd is popular and doing well. Stories are beaurecrats working too hard or kept waiting or even what a backbencher of no consequence did at a restaurant are really scraping the barrel. I would have thought that after Rudd’s victory, the reporting an commentary may have improved but if anything its worse
And to keep things in perspective -“Pokies cloud over McGaurans”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22554362-601,00.html
Pertinent, maybe, maybe not – they all give me the shits
The talk of a DD election is wishful thinking by the minor parties, it will not happen.
The Lib/Nats have not voted against any legislation, they have just delayed it. Why? Because the last thing they want is a DD trigger.
The political hard heads will realise its stupid to hand the Govt. an election whenever they feel like calling it.
The only result would be less Lib/Nat senators. So expect them to delay legislation but when it comes to the crunch they will pass it.
796 ruawake – including Fuelwatch?
And a qote
GB
Especially on Fuel Watch. Remember we are only talking triggers. The technical reason for the election is irrelevant.
What a DD trigger means is that Rudd can call an election whenever he sees the Libs are at their most shambolic.
They may reject the legislation and return it to the reps – but I bet London to a brick they will not reject it a second time.
The largest pokie machine owner in Australia is Woolworths. Anywhere where you see and orange “BWS” bottleshop they own the pub.