Newspoll: 59-41

Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …

UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. cille, there is nothing, nothing the I hate more than the top-end-of-town and the rich not paying their true share of taxes.

    These are the people who take three hour lunches, play golf every second day and what’s worse, cost corporations billions of dollars. Whereas the real people who do the real work, pay the most taxes.

    There is so much government revenue there to be raised by tightening loop holes in legislations.

    That’s why the MSM (the real reason) supports the Liberals. There is much more for them to lose than to gain.

  2. Excellent call Red Wombat. But there is another company I had in even more in mind ???

    And Tim Cossie reckons the Vic government made its decisions based on his lobbying. Yep forget about government revenue and top-end-of-town profits, we’ll listen to Tip2 – hysterical!

  3. Woolworths bought ALH (Australian Leisure & Hospitality) in conjunction with Bruce Mathieson. Mathiesons hotels were then incorporated into the new joint venture (Bruandwo………Bruce, Andrew and Woolworths. MSM always refer to it as “Bruce and Woolworths) Woolworths own 75%, Bruce and Andrew 25%.

  4. Possum fans – there’s a new bit of spiffy analysis up, discussing whether poor polling results can be blamed on Nelson or on the party.

  5. Having seen Xanthippe’s copy of Tim Costello’s book, I agree with the view that ATMs should be banned near gaming machines. Frankly, I’m sure they’d find a way if they have to, so stick to your guns Nick, I say!

    As for Ruawake’s comments at 796 and 799, I agree 100%. That is the reason they sent the luxury car tax to committee. They wouldn’t dare reject it on current polling, or one coalition senator in every State would be looking for a job. I would think my two favourite democrats (Bartlett adn Allison) would have a better chance of getting back in than some of the Coalition sixth ticket holders.

  6. Allison is one of your favourite Democrats? Meh.

    Andrew Murray, Natasha Stott Despoja and Andrew Bartlett leave her in the dust. How she is leader is beyond me.

  7. William

    Galaxy only asked the question on State voting intention. After they asked the questions on Federal politics. 🙁

  8. According to today’s SMH, Rudd is set to sack Belinda Neal from the ALP after new allegations concerning “Iguanagate” are aired tonight on Channel 9’s A CURRENT AFFAIR!

  9. As if on cue….

    After yesterday’s furphy article in the Telegraph on how Big Business was encouraging Costello to go back and be leader of the Libs to take on Rudd, we have a story in today’s Australian that takes the same facts and puts them in exactly the opposite light.

    No-one wants you Peter.

    One lot thinks you’re demanding too high a salary. The banks… well, they don’t want to upset the new government by “poking them in the eye”. And the rest don’t have anything for you to do. And this article names names. The boardrooms of Australia have spoken.

    Right from the start Costello let himself be swindled out of the top job because he didn’t have the guts to have a go when the time was ripe. He didn’t have the nouse to make his own luck. Instead of taking the leadership when Downer faltered, he settled for a guarantee from Howard that in a couple of years’ time he’d be handed it on a platter. I mean, a guarantee is better than maybe… gulp… trying a… vote… and, and… maybe losing to Lazarus-with-a-triple-bypass… right?

    Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. You kept your legs crossed for too long, Peter.

  10. Bushfire Bill: LMAO!
    Captain Smirk is as weak as piss, he’d need to have the Liberal leadership handed to him on a platter, he won’t do any work to go out and earn it.
    And, I don’t buy the MSM spin that Costello would give Rudd a serious challenge in 2010.

  11. You kept your legs crossed for too long, Peter

    Thanks BB, this morning has be a crappy one right from the start for me, but you just made me smile :mrgreen:

  12. And, I don’t buy the MSM spin that Costello would give Rudd a serious challenge in 2010.

    If Costello is the best hope for the opposition, they are in deeper trouble than I thought.

  13. If Peak Brenda and All Tip are the best hope for the fibs
    maybe lazarus will go for the quintuple bypass

    OMG that is not funny 🙁

  14. Costello never “had the numbers”, either with the public, or in the Liberal Party. Besides, he lacked the ticker, too.

    Practically the first thing he did after the election defeat was run up the white flag on leading the Party.

    Leadership of a just-defeated Opposition – heck, Opposition at any point of the electoral cycle – calls for steel, guts, and hard, thankless work. Difficult to imagine he’s had a ticker transplant after all this time.

    If he was the real mover-and-shaker he no doubt likes to imagine himself as being, the corporate world would have snapped him up quickly. After all, it’s not every day they have the opportunity to snap up a young(ish) former Federal Treasurer. It’s not like he made any secret of his desire to move in that direction. I suspect they saw his as marshmallow man and politely left him where he is.

    So he remains a backbencher. I think that’s where he will stay. No job offers forthcoming from outside politics, he will serve out his term in the true time-serving tradition. There lies ahead of him years of sulking over the chances he chickened out of, and being hauled over the coals by Labor every sitting day of Parliament for the high-debt, high-inflation, high-interest rates economy he left in his wake.

  15. The Costello story is all bluster. He clearly cant get a good offer to leave, and there is no way he will stay to be a two term (or more) opposition leader

  16. Re: the Neal affair. Its the scandal that keeps on giving!! Now if as alleged the couple got irate and tried to use their status to get somewhere (my god we’re talking about a small restaurant for god’s sake) why try to cover it up to this extent? how stupid are these people?

    Rudd has to be careful here. Just like Howard got into trouble in his first term with ministerial standards and then just abandoned them for ten years. If Rudd sacks her from the ALP (bearing in mind she keeps her seat unless she resigns), every incident from now on with lead to calls for sacking

  17. The Commentariat are fond of taking small mistake, monor gaffes, nuances of indecision and so forth in Rudd and morphing them into unfitness to be Prime Minister. Usually phrases like “lack of judgement” or “…this may be a small issue, but it goes to character” (as per Bolt on Insiders yesterday) come to mind.

    We see no such wistfulness or sad shaking of heads when it comes to Costello’s ambitions though, do we? It is assumed that if he wanted to he could take over the Opposition Leadership and turn the tables on Rudd… if only… he… had… the… numbers, or the ticker or the gumption to do so.

    And there you have it. Costello’s conceit is that he either has it handed to him on a platter (and by this I mean the Prime Ministership, but leadership of the Opposition), or it’s a no-no. The myth is put around that “Peter has done enough already. He deserves a rest.” This really does go to character.

    Somebody who has an entitlement mania, someone who is so supposedly confrontational yet eschews any form of real confrontation where he might actually lose the fight has a name: “bully”. They only fight when the little guy they’re beating up on can’t fight back, or if he does is so weak that he’ll lose. For them the concept of “courage” is meaningless. It’s all about winning, but only when the other horse is nobbled. All show pony, no show, when it comes to stepping up.

    So when it comes to “character” or “judgement”, how could we ever permit a man to be leader of this nation? A man who was so naive as to be fooled into thinking Howard’s naked ambition was really just solid loyalty to the party and, when he finally woke up to what was going on, did nothing about it except bleat, whinge and carp from the sidelines, crying into his shiraz to Michael Brissenden, of all people.

    Howard made one of his few decisions that I agree with when he buried this bloke. From a political position of zero, minus zero, Howard, bluffed Costello when Costello did have the numbers, or could have got them. And Costello’s supporters now have the temerity to believe could be Prime Minister? Howard conned him with the oldest two-card trick in the book. Why would you bother?

    No guts, no glory, Peter. You are missing the former and will never have the latter.


    The Australian, 23 June 2008

    Mr Costello did get an early offer from the Australian arm of giant US investment banking group Citigroup. But this didn’t proceed in the wake of protracted arguments about how much he was worth

    That speaks to the nonsense of the Tories’ WorkChoices line: that people can negotiate their way up the food chain.

    When even an ex-Treasurer cannot negotiate the outcome he wants, what hope mere mortals when “negotiating” with powerful multinationals?

    Humbug! Personified by SmirkChoices himself.

  19. “The least popular politician we find of those we asked about was Peter Costello and it’s pretty clear from our survey and doing some modelling, if there had been a change in leadership, if Peter Costello had replaced John Howard the Liberals still would have lost the election.”
    Bring on Costello as Leader of the Opposition, PLEASE.

  20. 810 + 819 …On Costello
    I just think it’s classically ironic that the economic conditions Tip constructed here in this country go a long way to making him unemployable.
    He was a Keating wannabe and that’s about it.

  21. I think the corporate world understand that Costello as Treasurer simply lived off the work of Treasury and his advisers. He is not really an economist or the like, he is a barrister and politician. So Costello’s only benefit to a corporation would be his status and contacts.

    Interestingly I believe Rudd would be in high demand as a corporate CEO.

  22. Watching the Tosser Turner memorial on Sky and Mal Meningar is speaking and just mentioned how Kev and Swanny went to visit him in hospital before he died, without any publicity or fuss.

  23. 826 what a bucket of junk (again!)

    “Hi i’m from Morgan polling. I’ve lined up 100 criticisms of Kevin Rudd and I’d like you to chose a few that you think might be appropriate.
    What – you like some of the things he’s doing. Sorry – I don’t have a box I can tick for that one; I’m just in charge of whining and whinging today. You’ll have to find someone else to talk to about what you think is going well. Surely there must be something you’re not happy about?”

    Gary Morgan says:
    “Although the latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP still well ahead with 58.5%, this latest qualitative research shows clearly the honeymoon is over. The electorate is concerned about the economic situation and is finding it difficult to reconcile the Rudd ALP pre-election promises and vision into their performance in the early part of their term in office.
    “However, while the L-NP is not seen to be a credible alternative — disunity, lack of “clarity of vision”, policies etc. are plaguing the Opposition and Brendan Nelson is not seen as able to provide the needed leadership, the ALP is still the electorate’s choice.”

    This Special Morgan Poll on Concerns about Kevin Rudd, Brendan Nelson and the ALP and L-NP parties was conducted during the week of June 4-9, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,258 electors.

    It’s the same old assumption that people not liking something is somehow more powerful than people liking something else. It’s a pretty basic error to be underestimating the human sense of hope. It’s been a pretty common thread over the last couple of million years. In fact it’s probably the only thing keeping the LP viable at present too.
    Mentioning the word ‘honeymoon’ is pretty much admission of intellectual barrenness at this stage.
    Good grief.

  24. Poor Gary cant help himself as always:
    Although the latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP still well ahead with 58.5%, this latest qualitative research shows clearly the honeymoon is over.

    Oh well here goes another email. At least he replies, although it obviously has no effect on his silly pronouncements

  25. The Climate Institute predicts the introduction of an emissions trading scheme will cost Australian households about $200 a year after five years in operation.

    However, Liberal backbencher Denis Jensen says he is not sure that figure is correct.

    “That is a very low estimate for what it’s going to be costing the average Australian household,” he said.

    Dr Jensen says Australians will be lucky to see change from $1,000.

    So the resident Lavoisier Group skeptic (Denis Jensen) doubts this report. Why am I not surprised. 🙂

  26. [Dr Jensen says Australians will be lucky to see change from $1,000]

    So Jensen must have his own computers, models and so forth and having run them come up with this figure?

    Or maybe $200 just seemed not enough to cause worry to the gerneral public and thus gives them no room to make up stories to bash government.

    Let me see Climate Institute -v- Jensen number plucked from sky? Did the journalists ask him how he got his figure and why he doesn’t believe the Climate Institute?


    The Skynooze poll shows most people blame everything else but govt (25%) for the oil prices. Which is a bit odd since the demographic usually wont miss the opportunity to dirty the government’s name.

  27. Costello will lead the Liberals at the next election. The Liberals simply don’t have anyone else. Brenda has the lowest PPM percentages ever since records were kept. Straightbull is an amateur. When the people got to see more of him, his preferred treasurer figures were reversed with Swan’s in an instant.

    When Cossie does become leader, beware, we are going to be in for the MOTHER of all honeymoons, all expenses paid by the MSM!

  28. The gigantic elephant in the room for the MSM is the abysmal quality of the Liberal party throughout Australia.

    They have to start analysing why.

    Why are they so bad for so long?
    Why do they attract so many candidates not up to the job?
    Why do they persist with policy and style that is unacceptable to the public?

    AND, why on earth is the Federal Opposition, having been in power for more than a decade with all the benefits and experience that come from that – so totally incompotent and ignorant?

    It has to be a systemic problem to do with the nature of the Liberal party since it is Australia wide and, long term.

    Surely this is the major issue confronting Australia? Lack of credible oppositions eventually lead to bad governments.

    So why isn’t the MSM putting the blow torch on this issue?

    It would be truly sad if the MSM have decided to undermine the government and build up the Liberal party regardless of the total lack of ability and quality.

  29. Costello couldn’t take being ridiculed by Rudd and Swan during QT. He will be having nightmares of when Keating was PM beating up on him.

    I can just imagine Swan calling Costello – Mr Inflation.

    AND why would he want to lead a bunch of no hopers?

    The last government was basically Howard and not much else.

    Really Costello whilst he might raise their stakes a little will be just delaying the inevitable clean out that needs to occur all the way down the line.

  30. There is absolutely no indication out here that people want a Costello led government, quite the opposite. He gives every sign of someone looking for the exit. Hell, I hope I’m wrong.

  31. The Liberals with a leader from Victoria? Not likely
    That leader being Peter Costello? Even more unlikely

    Costello abdicated on election night.

  32. Andrew @ 819 –

    Fairfax are only paying Cossie $50K for his novel fish & chips wrapping?! I could get nearly that much for my memoirs. LOL

    Maybe someone should take up a collection for the poor bugger…. anyone?…. 😉

  33. 838
    Great topic.
    I’ll make a suggestion that it goes further than the Australian LP and include conservative politics in the US. This is really a topic for a book, or series of books, so I’ll just start with a few questions:

    Where on earth are the ‘smart’ conservative politicians? Sure, they’ve had plenty of success in getting elected lately (last 15 years or so), though this seems to be waning. It’s easy enough to take a crack at GWB, but the true measure of the party is the calibre of the immediate team. Both here and in the US the conservatives were smart enough to get elected, but not smart enough to think long term, or even take the public with them on their little ideological journey. They can’t seem to plan for their future party, let alone a whole country.

    One of the questions that has stumped me in regard to the Republicans is why, in the whole entire world of conservative politics, can’t they find a speech writer who can work with GWB? Boggling. Why does no one care?

    Why does conservative politics now wholly equate with economic neo ludditism when a slew of conservative economists are telling us that the conservative way to manage climate change is to deal with it now, and that this could in fact be more profitable? Business is streets ahead of the politicians on this on and that’s surely got to be driving a fund-raising wedge.

    That’s a start.

    On Costello – he’s not a team builder, policy developer, or even original or creative thinker. I’ll grant he has some personal charisma – he looks the part when wandering the streets of Melbourne, but he’s flawed and he hasn’t cultivated the relationships to either plug the flaws or develop the positives.

    And what is it with the meme out there that there’s going to be a single fix the the Liberals problems, or any problem for that matter?

  34. Essential Poll on Sky Agenda was excellent for Rudd today. Wonder if it will be reported in MSM. Bruce Hawker and Graeme Morris agreed Rudd has done right thing by controlling all for first few months but can now let go a little. I was surprised all round by Morris who said young press blokes had been used in previous Liberal PM offices and that you needed one ‘headkicker’ and one ‘conciliator’ as press secs. Wonder if Morris is seeking something from the Govt. because, apart from saying fuel tax needing to be reduced earlier than later, he virtually agreed with Bruce Hawker.
    Good explanation in crikey today of reason Lyons got stuck into Rudd – apparently he was the journo who was pushed aside by security blokes outside the Star Casino a few months ago. Security was concerned about Rudd’s safety. Sorry but I don’t know how to link the crikey piece.

  35. Kina @ 838 –

    AND, why on earth is the Federal Opposition, having been in power for more than a decade with all the benefits and experience that come from that – so totally incompotent and ignorant?

    Kina @ 840 –

    The last government was basically Howard and not much else.

    You’ve answered your own question.

    The meeja like to bang on about Rudd being a micro-manager, but I understand that, with one or two exceptions, ministers in the last government had to pass everything through the Dept of PM&C which had the final say on just about everything.

    Which may explain why they were so unwilling to cut Howard adrift when he gave them the perfect opportunity during APEC. None of the fools were capable of making a decision as they’d never had to before.

    And they still can’t. Cossie and Lord Lunchalot can’t make up their minds on whether to quit, Nelson gives 3 different answers to every question – all of which are contradicted by Turnbull, they can’t decide whether to oppose bills so they send them off to the never-never land of committees while desperately hoping for inspiration – or perhaps a voice from on high, etc, etc,….

    I suspect that during the last 12 years we had about as close to a dictatorship as we’re likely to ever have short of a military coup.

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