Newspoll: 59-41

Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …

UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. The ‘dictatorship of Howard’ also explains the problem for the media.

    For years, they’ve been running with whatever line Howard fed them, regardless of the real issues.

    You could see it happening – a nasty issue would come up for the government, Howard would say “Look over there!” and the press pack would be off after the new scent, totally oblivious to the real issue they’d left behind them.

    I remember the 1998 election (above average swing for our campaign): by all measures, Howard was unelectable. He couldn’t run on his record; his first term had been disastrous. He couldn’t make promises; the electorate was deeply distrustful, having been burnt by the ‘non core’ line.

    So he came out with the GST, which only months before he and Costello had rejected.

    Immediately, the media’s attention switched to this. It was virtually impossible – I tried – to get them to run stories on any other issue. By the time the election proper came around, the whole discourse was whether or not the GST was a good idea rather than whether or not the Howard government should be re elected.

    Our media is still the same. Leave them on their own to sort out what they should be talking about and they can’t do it. They need someone to feed them stories.

    So if the Liberals do this, they’ll run them, regardless of how ridiculous it makes them look to the wider world. They simply don’t have the ability to do anything independently.

    I think Rudd knows this. I think he also knows that, basically – apart from tragics such as ourselves – people don’t WANT the news to be about politics. So if the Libs want to run stories demonstrating how out of touch they are, he’s willing to let them.

    It would be nice if the msm were capable of independently assessing issues, researching them and presenting the results of their analysis to the public. But they obviously aren’t.

    Pity: good governance requires not only a robust Opposition but a critical Press as well (and I mean critical in the positive sense, of providing objective analysis).

  2. Probably Rudds best performance on QT today. It seems that the opposition tactics group have no idea how to put a decent attack togeather. Nelson asked two pathetic questions assisted by the wheat farmers in the public gallery – Rudd smartly let them know that the Libs had voted with Labor on the abolittion of the single wheat desk.

    It was good to see a re run of the poison dwarfs public outing at the Walkley Awards last night on Rove. Rove made some brillant comments about the state of one of our most senior journalists!!

  3. I’ve got an idea for Brenda – remove all excise from petrol. It would only cost about $14 billion.

    This would reduce petrol prices to what they were when Howard the omnipotent was in his death throws – last Nov.

  4. 853 I’d agree with that zoom.
    I ‘discovered’ another part of the problem on the weekend. I know an intelligent journalist who’s job is pretty apolitical, though they are part of the MSM. I discovered that they are friends with one who regularly received a bollocking here, and who I reckon I’d struggle to have a conversation with.
    I was a little dumbfounded – there’s just not enough layers of separation there for my liking.
    It made me think about how my acquaintance judges the work of the other, and I realised that they just don’t, or at least not to any extent that would affect a friendship.
    For me, it’s a bit like taking the keys off your drunk mate, but in journalistic circles it obviously isn’t.
    I think there’s a fundamental disconnect between the public expecting some sort of motivation to seek truth and conscience on the part of the journalists that just isn’t even on the radar of most journo’s. Most of us have social and work persona’s that differ slightly, but it had never occurred to me that journo’s are more like actors when at work than detectives.
    I guess with the rise of television and video entertainment it shouldn’t have been that surprising, but it opened my eyes just that little bit further.

    In total – I just don’t think most of them take their job or industry as seriously as we take them based upon their history.

  5. Well here is an answer that deals with the source of the problem and not some piddly 5c excise Mr Nelson.

    It must be good since McCain is scrambling to have his name associated with it as well.

    “With the cost of gas a top issue in the presidential campaign, Barack Obama on Sunday will announce a plan to crack down on oil speculation by tightening regulations on energy traders.

    Obama wants to close a loophole in federal law that exempts some energy traders from regulations that govern other exchange-traded commodities. Democrats call this “the Enron loophole” because it benefited the Houston energy-speculation firm that collapsed in an accounting scandal.

    In response, John McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds said: “The truth is Barack Obama is following John McCain’s lead to close a Wall Street loophole that was signed into law by President Bill Clinton. John McCain has supported bipartisan efforts to close this loophole and will work to address abuses in oil speculation.”;_ylt=AmsCISUuYoIbvAIRxSlkU4BsnwcF

  6. “Obama said: “For the past years, our energy policy in this country has been simply to let the special interests have their way —…”

    Sounds like Howard’s Green Mafia mates… who will no doubt still flood the country with misinformation and scare campaigns on Carbon trading.

  7. “Prime Minister, was the government contacted by the major Australian producer of ethanol or by any representative of his company or the Industry Association before its decision to impose fuel excise on ethanol? If so, when? Was the government urged to take action to prevent Trafigura Fuels Australia from importing a shipment of ethanol from Brazil at a commercially competitive price?”

    Manildra will haunt Brenda. 😛

  8. As Tony Abbott recently told Webdiary, “There are some things the public has no particular right to know”

    Good old Tony, at the time looking forward to a nice one party state

  9. Clouds gathering on the housing boom – only the global/China boom keeps reality at bay.

    “And my point in drawing the parallel with business borrowing in ’80s is to remind you that there’s nothing to stop a good old-fashioned speculative property boom and bust being grafted on the top of a perfectly innocent structural change in the economy.”

    “When the housing boom turns to bust, consumer spending could weaken significantly.

    And if, at that time, the economy happened to be weak for other reasons – such as the continuing weakness of the world economy – the blow could be severe.”

    Ross Gittins is the Herald’s Economics Editor.

  10. And one last one pertinent today. So changing the private insurance regulations will put increased burden on the Public system?

    Well it seems maybe not much ever left the public system anyway.

    “In a study to be presented to a national health summit beginning tomorrow, the NSW Health Department’s research says the Federal Government’s aim of relieving strains on public hospitals by boosting private insurance is “a dismal failure”.

    The study shows that private patients are dominating non-emergency surgery. In the category of gynaecological procedures, for example, they are undergoing surgery at up to six times the rate of public patients.”

    The Prime Minister, John Howard, this week rejected calls for health system reform, stating that the boost for private insurance, including the $2.4 billion annual tax rebate, had taken “a massive load” off public hospitals.”

    Another Howard govt gift to its mates.

  11. No surprise John Lyons has a personal vendetta against Rudd!
    Did anyone else watch ACA tonight? Belinda Neal is toast if any of these allegations are proved to be true, I think at the very least she’ll be disendorsed before the next election!

  12. I do not like Tony Abbott!!!!! I had to be medicated for nausea recently when he was on the cover of the Australian Weekend Magazine with a photo of the Pope, the Christ on Earth!!!!! I am only just recovering!!!!!

  13. Progressive.

    I watched ACA – the shock horror revelations seem to be that the person signed a stat dec that did not include a para saying “do you know who I am”.

    So why sign it?

    One thing that seemed to be odd was that the “staffer” (of 3 weeks) was a friend of one of the reptile bar staff.

  14. Progressive
    Dolly and Smirk are on the same trip to the USA.
    They are probably looking for a job seeing as no one in Austraia will employ them lol.

  15. 864 [Did anyone else watch ACA tonight? Belinda Neal is toast if any of these allegations are proved to be true…]

    That would be a longshot Progressive. I saw recently that ACA had clocked up its fifth finding against it in three years for only giving one side of a story. The media watchdog is getting sick of having to decide cases involving ACA.

  16. zoom at 853 thanks for your perspective of Howard98. I never thought of the GST as a diversion issue- it now seems so obvious

  17. 870 Andrew
    ha – that’s amazing.
    It seem like people like Rudd so much that they’re worried he’s going to burn out and not leave enough Rudd for later!!!

  18. The MSM trying to put out a negative message that Rudd is 24/7 has simply left the subconcious impression that he is hard working and on the job. Better than the opposite.

  19. I was saddened by the death of another celebrity but was it necessary for our politicians to get into the act, especially in parliament. The cult of celebrity rules again… pathetic.

  20. Why do people watch A Current Affair. It is full of dribble and nonsense, watching it encourages them to report nonsense and bring out trivial rubbish and our media is full of it.

  21. vera @ 868 –

    Dolly and Smirk are on the same trip to the USA.
    They are probably looking for a job seeing as no one in Austraia will employ them lol.

    Dolly is definitely in NY for a job interview as the UN’s Lord High Peacekeeper of Cyprus no less.

    The fact a war criminal and facilitator of corruption, whether deliberately or by negligence/incompetence, of the UN food for oil program could be considered for any UN role beggars belief. He should be banged up in a ICC cell in the Hague, not being considered for a cushy job in an organisation he badmouthed constantly during the 12+ years he was FM.

    Even worse, Stephen Smith is actively encouraging him to take the position:

  22. 878 – Agree MayoFeral. Not a good look for Labor to be rewarding Downer. Its will just look like a bit of figleaf cover and excuse for later doling out jobs to their own mates who have passed their use-by. Its not like getting rid of him will damage the Libs or provide an opportunity to win a by-election. Throw the book and a bag of wheat at him.

  23. Marky Marky: I was sick ofthe Jane McGrath thing by last night! Talk about media overkill, today’s SYDNEY DAILY TELEGRAPH was full of it! Yes, it’s very sad, but aren’t there more important issues in the world to report? What about Zimbabwe?

  24. 880 – What makes you think The Daily Morongraph will start reporting real news? They never have and don’t even look like coming close.

  25. I just saw Julie Bishop on Lateline. She was woeful. Confected outrage, moral indigniation, squwaking consipracy theories in relation to the Iguana thing.

    She tries to link the changing of statutory declarations to Kevin Rudd and his inclination to micro mange everything. She attempted to construct a case that Rudd is in this up to his neck advising Neal on what to do and how to proceed. She intimated that it would beggar belief that Rudd isn’t involved because he is a control freak.

    She then claimed that the government has now referred this matter to the Federal Police as a result of the opposition’s pressure and brilliance in prosecuting the matter in parliament.

    Honestly it was quite pitiful. This woman is deputy leader of the Liberal and potentially a leadership candidate. She was hopeless. If Bishop is the best they can offer beyond Nelson then they are in real strife.

  26. While I’m no Downer lover, I don’t think appointing him to this post in Cyprus (if it happens) will go down badly with the electorate at large. On the contrary, I think it will show to the electorate that Rudd has a bit of even-mindedness about him and that will be seen as a plus for him. I don’t think that the vast majority of the voters out there see Lord Dolly the same way as we do.

  27. I do agree that Rudd gains more out of posting Downer somewhere. Makes him appear apolitical, not involved in usual political revenge games and who can complain if he does the same for one of his own.

    With people like Downer he just needs to make sure it is nowhere important and where he can make trouble – like China or Japan or the USA.

  28. Maybe Rudd remembers his bible:

    “Therefore if thine enemy hunger, feed him; if he thirst, give him drink: for in so doing thou shalt heap coals of fire on his head”

    Would gall Downer to take a job from Rudd given his jealousy.

  29. Kina 835 (sorry for the late response)

    The figures bandied about for the impact of carbon taxes are way off. Carbon taxes are really about coal and electricity, and only have a marginal effect on fuel prices. Economist John Quiggan has done the numbers; see his blog.

    Even a very high carbon tax ($100/tonne) only corresponds to 25 cents/litre on fuel. More likely levels of the tax might add ten cents per litre. The real losers will be oil companies – higher taxes will force them to cut profit margins. So of course their stooges warn of the dangers of carbon taxes.

    Likewise the effect of a carbon tax on consumers has been exaggerated. It has a greater effect on energy suppliers to the grid. The final increase on retail energy prices (what we pay) has been estimated at around 20%.

    Finaly, apart from the inflated costs of a carbon tax spread by Jensen and co, they make no mention of the savings, or the creation of whiole new industries (eg alternative energy) that generate jobs.

  30. I wonder if Julie Bishop realises, that her obsessing over the Neal mess instead of waiting for the police investigation to wind up is plain outright boring, even Tony had had enough, i bet he’s sorry he invited her on tonight, he also went to pains to point out the exstaffer was paid for her A.C.A. gig, when Tony tried to get Julie onto another subject, unless i misheard, he told her she’d attacked the government enough, he also asked her if she was going to continue with the saga for the rest of this parliament even though they had’nt laid a glove on Rudd with it, it was an abysmal performance on her behalf.
    Ive reached the stage that even if it did happen it’s been a trial by media –so Neal handled the whole thing clumsily–for god’s sake, the opposition big mouths have had far, far more to say and stuff up in the past, compare it to children overboard, AWB, invading Iraq, the Haneef mess etc etc and there were ministers involved in all of those fiascos, does the Neal and co stuff up really warrant the wailing and hand wringing going on–and WHY THE HECK ARE THEY TRYING TO HANG IT ON RUDD, I cant believe i was silly enough to sit up and watch that performance.

  31. 830
    ruawake Says:
    June 23rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
    The Climate Institute predicts the introduction of an emissions trading scheme will cost Australian households about $200 a year after five years in operation.

    Dr Jensen says Australians will be lucky to see change from $1,000.

    So the resident Lavoisier Group skeptic (Denis Jensen) doubts this report. Why am I not surprised.

    Somehow I think $200 is not going to be enough to really change behaviour when it comes to energy choices in your average household. You’re talking about less than $2.00 per capita per week. If it was that easy, it would have been done by now.

  32. The media’s attempt to change the public’s understanding of Rudd’s character and the character of his PM-ship by inventing the notion that he is busy doing nothing, or is chaotic or is whatever, as silly and based on personal prejudice as the notions are, end up causing themselves to believe their own inventions.

    Such is the psychology of the defeated, tucked away in their sheltered corners of the media their desires become their imaginations become their reality. They will all convince themselves that Rudd is running around chasing his own tail because it comforts them to see it that way.

    Their imaginations got carried away in recent times where they decided to adopt/accept/hope in the idea that this is a one term Rudd government and then next, that Rudd might not be there at the next election.

    To them Rudd is failing, but none of this is based on any reality, at all. Apart from being the most popular PM since Hawke and, I would say will be respected for working hard and religiously keeping promises etc. [also we have a more terrible opposition than is usual].

    There is not the slightest indication that Rudd shouldn’t be the leader for this term and at least another term – not in polls or in performance. So where does the notion come from except from disappointed Liberal supporters with a deep personal envy of Rudd – we even see some respected commentators tentatively take up the idea of Rudd not being there at the next election.

    I wonder if some political commentators are getting so tied up in their own fabrications that they cant or wont be able discern them from reality.

    They might be well aware of the game they are playing against Rudd and the govt now, but playing for so long it is not the public that has been affected, they have hypnotised themselves.

    PS. Bishop has a number of flaws – especially holding on to workchoices IR>

  33. The point of cap-and-trade systems has to be to reflect the cost of pollution in the market price of electricity and of goods and services supplied with electricity. The long and the short of it is electricity prices have to go up enough to do two things – make it feasible to create and deploy less-polluting generating technologies; and drive up the price of goods and services with high embedded pollution values in order to reduce demand for them. If cap-and-trade systems don’t do these things, there is no point in having them. They have to be designed to raise real prices enough to change the behaviour of both suppliers and consumers of electricty. Will the cost be just $2.00 per capita per week? I doubt it.

  34. There of course may be another driver behind the MSM persistent and childish attacks on Rudd and Labor that has nothing to do with politics, the fear of the energy companies.

    It would be interesting to know what the AFP would hear if they tapped the lines of the MSM and a number of oil and coal companies. We know this cartel and certain of the MSM spent a decade controlling the reporting of Climate Change issues and also Howard govt policy. SO they have a lot of power and have shown they will use it.

  35. Are you advocating wire-tapping, Kina? And targetting the media and businesses? For political purposes? I would be more than a little startled if you were.

  36. 878
    MayoFeral Says:
    June 23rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
    vera @ 868 –

    Dolly is definitely in NY for a job interview as the UN’s Lord High Peacekeeper of Cyprus no less.

    The fact a war criminal and facilitator of corruption, whether deliberately or by negligence/incompetence, of the UN food for oil program could be considered for any UN role beggars belief. He should be banged up in a ICC cell in the Hague, not being considered for a cushy job in an organisation he badmouthed constantly during the 12+ years he was FM.

    But it is good politics, MF. Downer is a spent force in Liberal politics and it would be great to see him out of the Parliament. He was a very long-serving foreign minister. If he wants a crack at the job, it costs the government nothing to support him. Smart.

  37. Did the Liberals say Rudd was a control freak? They should check out what their own Liberal Leaders are doing.

    [LORD Mayor Campbell Newman has gagged Liberal councillors, preventing them from publicly responding to issues without checking with his office.

    Elected officials and senior members of Cr Newman’s Can-Do team must now run all information requests relating to their areas of expertise via the Lord Mayor’s spin doctors.

    This includes Deputy Mayor and Infrastructure chairman Graham Quirk who said on Friday he wasn’t able to talk to the media without Cr Newman’s office first being consulted.

    “You really need to go through the media unit – it’s the way we do things,” he said.

    Cr Newman said he wanted to know what the “agenda” was in advance to ensure appropriate information was made available.],23739,23908429-3102,00.html

  38. blindoptimist @ 895 –

    But it is good politics, MF. Downer is a spent force in Liberal politics and it would be great to see him out of the Parliament

    That could just as easily be achieved by banging him up.

    And while it might get him out of parliament it won’t get him out of the country. Apparently, much of the work could be done from here and he can still pursue “other interests.”

    I the interview I heard, Dolly didn’t specify what the “other interests” were, but I bet being freely available to the media to comment on the government’s every foreign policy move is high on the agenda.

    It might have been better to appoint him ambassador to some place where he’d be out of sight and not able to do much harm. Mongolia, perhaps, or Georgia! Or what about Britain. After a year of two of Dolly at the Court of St James, even the Queen will be insisting we become a republic!

  39. 894 blindoptimist:

    No, this is not the USA or USSR.

    And there would be no law broken if they were colluding. Far better to send an undercover ‘journalist’ to rat them out but even then it woudn’t affect there behaviour.

    Now if an ex Howard government staffer who was witeness to the Green Mafia actually drafting / editing government policy/legislation, now that might entail some law breaking surely, but Im not sure what. Apparently the Green Mafia was not shy about bragging about their power within the Howard govt.

  40. judy barnes @ 888:

    …………….and WHY THE HECK ARE THEY TRYING TO HANG IT ON RUDD, I cant believe i was silly enough to sit up and watch that performance.

    judy, the opposition are still using the Howard tactic of personal attacks on the character of PM Rudd. Guilty by association….Brian Bourke, Scores, control freak…yada yada ya………

    If you remember this all started when he became leader in Dec 2006 and continued all through last year. The fact that the attacks failed dismally doesn’t seem to matter to them, they must be hoping something sticks.

    I suppose by continually going on about the supposed character flaws of the PM they hope to get the perception embeded into the minds of the electorate thereby weakening him somehow. It’s all a bit silly really as PM Rudd seems to be playing with their minds still, and if the polls are any indication the electorate are smart enough to see through them.

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