Morgan: 61-39

Today’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey of 842 voters, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 61-39 from 60.5-39.5 at the similar poll last week. This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era.

Other news:

• State and federal ministers met in Sydney today to discuss reform proposals being considered for a green paper to be issued in July, including bans on all corporate and union donations. The Coalition has confirmed that opposition is where it belongs by indicating it will oppose government legislation reducing the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $10,000 to $1000, after the previous government wantonly used its Senate majority to increase it from the existing $1500. A “Coalition spokesman” quoted by the Financial Review said the current government move was “like asking the Collingwood Football Club to review the AFL’s salary cap” – perhaps I should offer some sort of prize to the commenter who can best make sense of this analogy. Senators John Faulkner (Labor) and Michael Ronaldson (Liberal) jousted over electoral reforms during yesterday’s lively Senate estimates hearings, but transcripts are not yet available.

• A paper by Phillip Senior and Peter van Onselen on leadership effects in federal elections, published in the latest issue of the Australian Journal of Political Science, is freely available online (or at least, I thought it was – now I can’t find the link). Using Australian Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, they find leader preference scored higher than issue variables in driving vote choice at every election except 1998, when the GST mattered more than opinion of Howard or Beazley. The GST also scored notably high in 1993, though not as high as opinion of Keating.

• Unelected candidates for Franklin at the 2006 Tasmanian state election have been invited to nominate for the June 10 recount to replace Paul Lennon, who has retired from the parliament as well as the premiership. This will involve counting preferences from the 16,666 primary votes cast for Lennon, which will have gone overwhelmingly to unsuccessful Labor candidates Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Both the distribution of Lennon’s preferences and the primary votes (1066 for Butler, 620 for Hulme) suggest that Butler, taxi driver, retired school principal and former president of the Tasmanian Teachers Federation, will succeed in his bid for the seat. The Hobart Mercury reports that Hulme, a 28-year-old “former Labor student who has worked in Mr Lennon’s Kingston electoral office for the past year”, will also nominate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. So the Fibs have had a go at the reserve bank gov., the head of treasury, the ACCC, to defend their positions on various topics.

    But if Cabinet does not agree with 4 out of 20+ submissions then they are ignoring the “expert” view.

    It really is all to silly.

  2. In some ways our education system has failed again:
    Failed to teach the basic economics if international commodities (yes big words, but the concept is pretty simple and general).
    Failed to teach the basics of what happens in a boardroom and associated ethics (I’d call the cabinet a specialised subset of this discussion).
    Failed to teach information about the Australian economy in comparison to other OECD nations, particularly the comparative values of things like property, food, fuel.
    Failed to teach the basics of household budgeting and contingency.Failed to teach the basics of a national economy – inflation, interest, debt, surplus, competition.

    I’d argue that these (and a lot of others) are some of the basics for being a good Australian citizen, and that our populations lack of basic understanding in these areas is an impediment to our country’s growth.
    When viewed from even a slightly more educated point of view, on even one or two of these areas, we an see that a lack of understanding allows the absolute snowballing of the general population. It’s nice to sit back and say that particular people should know better, but if we all knew just a little bit better we might make some collectively smarter decision.

    Instead we’ve got the Fuelwatch debate ‘we had to have’.

  3. If there is one Newspoll I want to see remain static or improve it’s this one. As Teddy Whitten once said it will “stick it up ’em” and by ’em’ I mean the media.

  4. 15
    Harry “Snapper” Organs Says: ?
    fred, that was just so moving, yet again. When he gave the speech originally, everyone in our office, everyone, just stopped and listened. Our emergency line (mental health) did not ring once. Just extraordinary.

    That is very interesting, Harry.

    Carney argues that we’re at the start of another oil shock.
    Bushfire Bill

    Not just another oil shock, but the big final one. Barring a major breakthrough in biofuel production, prices for hydrocarbon based energy are not coming back down, the massive cheap energy party is just about over.

  5. Interesting article in the Fin Rev re a new bidder in broadband network

    The well-funded consortium would own the network for 20 years after which it reverts to public ownership.

    A lot more telecommuting is one way to reduce reliance on oil

  6. Progressive # 64,
    I ‘copied’ and ‘pasted’ this from Dennis’s article in the oz,
    Shanahan.2:40 PM 29/05/2008

    “The Rudd Government’s credibility on petrol prices is in tatters, its ability to function as a sophisticated modern federal government is under question, and it’s stretching credulity on economic management.”
    I’ll remind him Tuesday after the polls.

  7. “Grocers wary of retail price monitoring system”

    “NARGA chief executive officer Ken Henrick says previous comparisons have failed to compare goods because sizes and products vary depending on the store and area.”

    So you would think that Ken would be in favour of unit pricing? Surely this would make things easier?

    But nooo.

    “Do people really lie awake at night in a sweat? “Dammit, maybe the 600g pack might have been a better deal than the 375g after all.” Only when the ACA workshops the problem.

    In real life customers don’t care. If price is an over-riding issue for a customer he’ll buy the cheapest pack in the category anyway and move on. He has more important things to do at home, like trimming his toenails.”

    This will possibly be the next fuelwatch for the Fibs. It funny how they tend to side with vested big business interests. 😛

  8. Eddie: yes, I noticed the very anti-Rudd slant of today’s WEEKEND AUSTRALIAN.
    Maybe I’m wrong, but do the majority of people in the real world really care that much about leaks in the public service?

  9. 108 Progressive – I really don’t believe they do. Nor will any leaks encourage people to automatically think Nelson is any better than he was before the leaks.

  10. What is lost in all of this is that the next election is 2 1/2 year’s away, not next month. To even suggest the government is incompetent or in a mess because some rogue public servant has leaked info is a joke.

  11. I hope Laurie learned the lesson from the last Deputy Premier of Tasmania and didn’t shred the document or it will turn up again in the parliament. Maybe he added salt, Pepper and tomato sauce and ate the document.

  12. Besides, Rudd is very popular. If the criticism is seen as over done it will also be seen as unfair, which could play in Rudd’s favour.

  13. #109 Wonder if the media will crucify the government over this. Everybody knows that some leaks are investigated, some not, depending on whether they help the government or hinder it. Therefore, if one of their own gets charged, they’ll probably scoff at any arguments about the rule of law, and will see it as an attack on their gang.

  14. 112 steve – problem is Steve it is a document the government already has.
    The big fear in the government at the moment must be that hte leaker has more to leak. With an investigation going on what does he/she have to lose?

  15. 114 netvegetable, is it normal practice for journalists to destroy documents likely to be the subject of an investigation?

  16. Gentlemen, the general media assumption is that Newspoll will show Labor’s vote plummeting. I can imagine the press gallery salivating over even a 55-45 Labor lead, and Shanahan spinning this in Nelson’s favour(rolls eyes).

  17. 114 netvegetable – that’s assuming they haven’t been crucifying the government up till now. I don’t think I see it that way.

  18. 117 Progressive – I agree, but I’m not so sure that will be the case. Even if it is there will be some commentators thinking “Is that all?” I think their expectations are high.

  19. Steve: exactly, you’d think the MSM would be campaigning to get Malcolm in there immediately LOL

    Channel 7 News in Sydney just attempted to smear Rudd with the assertion that he’s been cruel to that orangutan boy, because the government won’t cough up the $200,000 the Rodent promised for the monkeys. The media never fails to disgust me!

  20. 116 steve I really don’t know. I just remember during the Howard years documents were regularly leaked. Those leaks that hurt the government were were investigated to fullest extent of the law, those that helped them were referred to a standing committee for possible investigation.


    As far as the meeja is probably concerned, these are the rules of the game. They’ll see any dilligence in the investigation of this leak as an attack on “dear old Oaksey”, rather than an attempt to enforce the rule of law.

  21. Cabinet Documents are classified and are not released for 30 years, to divulge the contents of these documents is a criminal offence.

    So it is right and proper that the leak is investigated – but of course it is a “Witch Hunt”.

    Sorry NO, it is an investigation into a criminal offence.

  22. The media are going over the top and this will be recognised as such by the punters. You can just hear people saying “What next?” 7 are conducting their own witch hunt. Maybe we need a demonstration in the streets to rally against media bias.

  23. media bias

    I know that most newscorp publications have always given him a hard time, but not all. And fairfax sites have generally given him a good run.

    Perhaps the media has grown disenchanted with Rudd, because of his remote, presidential way of dealing with them?

    Perhaps it’s simply the fact that the rightwing journos and sites can’t find anything positive to say about Brendan Nelson, so they’re now expressing all their pro-Liberal bias by attacking Rudd?

  24. [The big question though is would such a rally be covered by any media organisation?]

    Community Radio & TV of course 🙂

  25. “Govt inflating childhood obesity figures: Nelson”
    ABC Online

    “Mr Rudd is more spin than substance,” he said.

    “He’s been telling us that there’s some sort of obesity epidemic or obesity crisis.

    “When you actually look at the evidence, when you look at the facts, it seems that it’s been exaggerated.”

    Brenda maybe you should talk to the Mad Monk who said:

    How serious is Australia’s epidemic of obesity?

    It’s quite serious, because if we don’t do something about it we will eventually become the first generation in modern history that has a lower life expectancy than our parents. So, if we want to keep living longer, better lives we’ve got to tackle the obesity crisis. ”

  26. Nelson is on a hiding to nothing with the obesity issue. This bloke was a doctor and he is telling us that the problem is overstated. Wait until the doctors finish with him. What a silly thing to buy into. I wonder if the media will climb into him.

  27. Jenny O’Dea researched 5000 children and their eating habits to reveal some shocking facts: one in six children had eaten no fruit or vegetables in the past three days, one in five had had no fruit juice, one in four had had no cereal, pasta or rice, and one in ten had had no milk. Even more confronting was her discovery that poor nutrition not only leads to poor physical growth, but poor brain growth and reduced intelligence, too.

    Given that Prof O’Dea has not presented the paper yet, I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

    I think the Oz has shot Brenda in the foot, if you look at the stats presented in their story they do not add up. Not one group of any type of kid had an obesity rate above 6% but some were as low as 2.4% yet the overall rate is 6%? I smell something fishy. 😛

  28. How hard is it to get your frontbench to stick to the same lie? He can’t even do that.

    Worst opposition leaders I’ve seen:

    1. Nelson
    2. Downer
    3. Latham
    4. Hewson
    5. Peacock
    6. Crean
    7. Beazley

    Nelson wont hold the record for long. IMHO Turnbull is even worse.

  29. The media’s job is to make money. They do this by selling stories. Sometimes there aren’t any interesting stories, so they have to invent their own.

    This is what they have done with Rudd. Running positive stories all the time gets boring with the punters out there, so the media has decided to light a few spot fires and turn this fuel watch thing(which i reckon is the best idea to come out of canberra since sliced bread was invented) into a major issue.

    This has made Brenda get a bloated head because for the first time someone is actually listening to him(the media) and now he is milking it for all it’s worth.

    He may get a rude shock come newspoll day however, we will see if his shanningans pays off!

  30. The Childhood Obese Crisis is a joke. It always has been. It is a clear case of creating a problem that doesn’t exist to get funding which is willingly supplied as it looks good to be help the kiddies. But in reality there has always been fat kiddies and the numbers are not increasing on whole*.

    It is the adult obese crisis that is on the increase. I know as I’m part of it. I was 40kg lighter at the end of high school to what I weigh now. I reckon there are two reasons we are getting fatter: 1) a non-stop food supply; you can’t get food everywhere now. 2) We are doing less manual labour at work. If I was laying bricks all day or even working in a factory, I would not be in the shape I am.

    * According to the report, there are groups of kiddies (Islanders, the Poor etc.) that are getting fatter. Going after these groups would make more sense. But then political this would lead to other groups whinging and Nelson saying “No parent wants a fat child, Every parent loves their skinny children….”

  31. 1) You can get food everywhere. That is what I meant…..

    142 – The differences in the figures is probably a result of different sized samples. The overall total could very easily add up to 6.8%.

  32. [Channel 7 News in Sydney just attempted to smear Rudd with the assertion that he’s been cruel to that orangutan boy, because the government won’t cough up the $200,000 the Rodent promised for the monkeys. The media never fails to disgust me!]

    It’s also made the Perth Bulletin as well, so expect it to dominate tomorrow’s news cycle.

  33. I read it somewhere but can not find it now. Some one said that Turnbull had chose the right words to describe his support for Brenda as “fullsome support”.

    On checking the dictionary the word fullsome is described as; Gross, disgusting by plainness, grossness or excess…….,fullsome

    Maybe he is testing Brenda and Brenda has not flopped to it yet!

  34. Given the details in the link at 148 It is only fair that Howard pay the $200 000 out of his own pocket as he knew that he could not fulfill the promise made while the Government was in Caretaker mode.

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