Morgan: 61-39

Today’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey of 842 voters, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 61-39 from 60.5-39.5 at the similar poll last week. This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era.

Other news:

• State and federal ministers met in Sydney today to discuss reform proposals being considered for a green paper to be issued in July, including bans on all corporate and union donations. The Coalition has confirmed that opposition is where it belongs by indicating it will oppose government legislation reducing the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $10,000 to $1000, after the previous government wantonly used its Senate majority to increase it from the existing $1500. A “Coalition spokesman” quoted by the Financial Review said the current government move was “like asking the Collingwood Football Club to review the AFL’s salary cap” – perhaps I should offer some sort of prize to the commenter who can best make sense of this analogy. Senators John Faulkner (Labor) and Michael Ronaldson (Liberal) jousted over electoral reforms during yesterday’s lively Senate estimates hearings, but transcripts are not yet available.

• A paper by Phillip Senior and Peter van Onselen on leadership effects in federal elections, published in the latest issue of the Australian Journal of Political Science, is freely available online (or at least, I thought it was – now I can’t find the link). Using Australian Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, they find leader preference scored higher than issue variables in driving vote choice at every election except 1998, when the GST mattered more than opinion of Howard or Beazley. The GST also scored notably high in 1993, though not as high as opinion of Keating.

• Unelected candidates for Franklin at the 2006 Tasmanian state election have been invited to nominate for the June 10 recount to replace Paul Lennon, who has retired from the parliament as well as the premiership. This will involve counting preferences from the 16,666 primary votes cast for Lennon, which will have gone overwhelmingly to unsuccessful Labor candidates Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Both the distribution of Lennon’s preferences and the primary votes (1066 for Butler, 620 for Hulme) suggest that Butler, taxi driver, retired school principal and former president of the Tasmanian Teachers Federation, will succeed in his bid for the seat. The Hobart Mercury reports that Hulme, a 28-year-old “former Labor student who has worked in Mr Lennon’s Kingston electoral office for the past year”, will also nominate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. The whole gallery is hanging out for next week’s Newspoll, for the post fuelwatch fallout.  Like there’ll be tectonic shifts going on.

    They never learn. 

    Just like Burke, Sunrise ANZAC, scores nudie bar, Howard forgeting the names of a candidate, Costello recanting his diatribe to three journos and any other number of “stories”.

    This week has been a week for the gallery to get excited, but for the voters at large, most of it has gone over their heads.

    The press truly lives in a parallel universe.

  2. Aristotle, I totally agree. In fact I think Rudd has recovered well. Firstly, having watched QT daily, he and the government, inspite of what has been reported, has not looked or sounded under pressure. The work of government has proceeded smoothly. Secondly, Rudd has been an open book on it all. He hasn’t avoided the issue or its consequences and thirdly he has labelled the Libs as being on the side of the big oil companies while saying Labor is on the side of the average person.
    I think the more the media try to put Rudd down, and that is what is going on here, the more people either ignore it completely or react negatively to it.
    Now Rudd is reported to be blaming the public service for the leak and that he was sending in the police. Err, hello, Oakes said it wasn’t a minister and Rudd is not in control of the investigation in any way.

  3. Yes i concur. All it has done is shown the press gallery for the pack of right wing vultures they are. I also believe in my opinion that it a shame how ungrateful an element within the public service is. It is clear the government took the moral high ground by not purging the public service of the politically appointment filth. I think they have every right to make heads start rolling. Better it happened now rather than later is say.

  5. The analogy is quite simple.
    Collingwood has the biggest supporter base of all the AFL teams and is also probably the richest team. If the salary cap was up to the Collingwood team, it is like that they do away with it or raise it to such a level that still be able to get the best players. Other clubs have rich supporters, but Collingwood has bigger numbers.
    So the Liberal spokeperson is saying that the ALP has more supporters and will be able to raise more money under the new rules.

  6. Aristotle and GB,

    I agree. I don’t see there being much of a change in Newspoll for two reasons. Firstly, there was no 5c/L bounce for Nelson. If there had been, we would have seen it in this Morgan Poll and probably the last Newspoll. The Libs haven’t offered anything since then other than trying to make the ALP look bad for favouring the ACCC advice on a competition issue over the advice of some other agencies who’s specisalisation is relevant to the issue how? Quite franly, I cant see the avearge punter giving a sh1t about this. Personally, I think I would prefer to be able to look up the fuel prices in the morning or at the end of the day and work out whether it is best to buy fuel on the waty to work, way home or tomorrow – sure beats being in the wrong land and realising you missed the cheap fuel because you were too busy looking out for the traffic and school zone signs.

    Secondly, oil prices have been reported commonly for years now and people realise that the high price of fuel is due to factors outside the control of our pollies. People aren’t politically switched on at the moment most people will not have paid a lot of attention to the goings on during the week; to the extent that the MSM’s musings have filtered through, all the talk about fuel prices from politicians will only occur as noise and most people will just see it as ‘at least they are looking at the problem’. I honestly think that people don’t expect a magical cure and the ‘no silver bullet’ line resonates (as much as it is annoying) because most opeople know that it is true.

    Don’t forget the huge bounce that the coalition got after the carers and pensioners payments were axed and that was the supposed ending of the honeymoon. 😉 Considering Labor were supposedly ripping off the most disadvantaged in the community at that time and that issue had SFA effect on the polls, I can’t see the public leaving the ALP and heading over to the Libs for a paltry saving of a couple of $/week.

  10. Socrates and Gary Bruce back on the previous thread reported on Rudd appearing on Sunrise and Mitchell’s program, and reading their reports, something struck me about all this ‘the honeymoon is over’ rubbish. No matter what gets thrown at him from any quarter, he goes out and engages, even, or maybe, particularly, with those he would know will try any tactic to damage him and Labor. Like others, there are things Rudd says and does that annoy me or I don’t agree with, but he earns my respect for actually putting himself out there and genuinely engaging. Maybe, that’s one of the reasons why the ‘honeymoon’ won’t go away. So annoying for the Denis’s of this world.
    And why is ABC News reporting it as Rudd’s worst week? Well, because….

  11. “Message Stick” on ABC TV just replayed ‘Sorry Day – The Day a Nation Cried”.
    If Rudd and the ALP do nothing else at all, they have still exceeded the Coalition record of 11 years.

  13. However, this is followed by joint Fed. and Vic. State funded upgrade of rail, and standardisation of rail guage report. Hmmm, what are they up to, do you think? Are they actually going to do something meaningful about infrastructure. Shock, horror. Don’t tell Denis.

  14. Just joining the chorus of agreement with Aristotle.

    FuelWatch is basically an information transfer device, and any economist will tell you that information transfer is critical for a market to work efficiently.

    Any publicity around Fuelwatch is good news for Rudd, at least he came up with the idea

    I’m more interested in the reaction to Downer vs Turnbull vs minchin vs
    Brendan “I need no blanket, my love for my country keeps me warm’ Nelson

  15. 11
    fred, that was just so moving, yet again. When he gave the speech originally, everyone in our office, everyone, just stopped and listened. Our emergency line (mental health) did not ring once. Just extraordinary.
    12
    Greeensborough Growler, I reckon it’s going to be interesting, that’s for sure. I think the media hostile to Rudd can’t figure him out, much as Howard couldn’t figure him out. They keep looking at him and what he’s about through glasses that needed replacing ten years ago.

  16. [No matter what gets thrown at him from any quarter, he goes out and engages, even, or maybe, particularly, with those he would know will try any tactic to damage him and Labor.]

    But we still hear from the murdoch boys that Rudd has a ‘glass jaw’, funny that. He spends an hour in front of the public accepting all questions, gets stuck into China in China, takes Cabinet out in front of the community and so on…. Rudd is never afraid to go put himself out front no matter the heat. Glass Jaw? I think its the murdoch boys that got the Glass Jaw and, it was smashed when Howard got beaten…now they are chickens with their heads cut off, running around not realising they are well and truly dead and irrelevant.

  18. Hmm… Only leading 61-39 with the Libs in such disarray, eh?

    Maybe Shannas has a point about the honeymoon being over.

    Ought to be at least 70-30 after all that’s happened.

  21. 18
    Don Wigan, are you a glass half full sort of guy? Seriously, there is some quite nasty vitriol and misinformation being served up out there, not to mention the fact, that as others have noted, the gov’t really does have some difficult problems to sort; inflation, infrastructure, education, health, climate change, indigenous disadvantage, and other things, not in any particular order of priority. Degree of difficulty?

  22. I suspect there will be a movement in the next newspoll, perhaps a rise in Nelson’s approval into the high 20s, and a corresponding drop in Rudd’s.

    It’s not that the 5c/litre proposal is particularly popular. The Opposition is arguing for a measure that would blow a whole in the Budget and feed inflation, all for a saving of perhaps $1.50pw for the average motorist.

    But instead of taking this golden opportunity to show themselves as tough leaders, and paint the Opposition as irresponsible populists, the Rudd government chose to give them credibility, and emulate them. They did this by raising the possibility of dropping the GST on the petrol excise.

    Dumb move, that I can not understand. They’ve simply made Nelson look a few percent more credible.

  23. 22
    ah, yes netvegetable, but will there be any significant movement in either the primary or TPP? Besides which, doing a review of the tax system is very smart. If they are blocked by either the Opposition (geez I like saying that!) or sabotaged by the public service, they’ve got more ammunition electorally, because, I think, the obvious public service leak of Cabinet documents will be regarded as “poor form”, at the very least. You don’t do this to a new government who has shown a willingness to have you stay. It’s a lot like defiling the bed in the master bedroom by some obnoxious boyfriend of the daughter.

  25. #23

    ah, yes netvegetable, but will there be any significant movement in either the primary or TPP?

    I don’t know. But there’s bound to be eventually if the Opposition starts looking credible.

    And if the ALP is this sensitive to criticism in their first year of government, w0t are they going to be like in the next election year?

  26. netvegetable – followed immediately by an outcry from the State Premiers, pointing out that if the excise was dropped, they would be demanding compensation.

    Thus educating the public – who have been leaping up and down about a ‘tax on a tax’ whenever the topic of petrol prices is raised – that it’s not as simple as they thought.

    Try talking to the average, not really interested in politics bod out there at the moment and you’ll find someone who has suddenly become much better educated about petrol pricing policy.

    And that’s what Rudd’s about – educating people. He has used the opportunity given to him by Brendan’s cunning plan on petrol excise to try and explain the issues to the wider community and to champion FuelWatch.

    I’ve now got people stopping me in the street – the kind of bods I’ve just referred to – and asking me to tell Mr Rudd NOT to cut petrol tax.

    Wouldn’t have happened a month ago.

  27. gotta love Kev, all this “Honeymoon over” bullsh*t hysteria that has msm wetting themselves, and Kev’s on my TV screen tonight smiling saying something like ‘oh well we all have bad weeks sometimes and no doubt we will have more in the future and we’ll probably cop a whacking in the next poll but, hey, that’s life.
    Relaxed and comfortable or what LOL

  28. I reckon Kev was taunting the likes of Shanna and Dwarf and giving them the big one finger salute into the bargain, lol,

  29. 24
    Bushie dear, possum, luvvie duvvie cats eye squash, it’s o.k. when it’s your/my obnoxious boyfriend, but not when it’s your partner’s kid’s drug f****d boyfriend! There’s got to be standards!

  30. 25
    netveggie, the Opposition (there’s that frisson, again) start looking credible??? That really made me laugh. There’s a long time between now and the next election, and Rudd is not what most people expect. As I’ve said earlier, I don’t necessarily agree with all he’s doing, but he’s certainly giving it his all, and engaging with the population in a way Howard never did, and Nelson can’t, as he just comes over as an unbelievable dipstick who has no credibility.

  31. #30 Harry, it’s the demonstration of bad political tactics I’m worried about, not specifically Nelson. Bad tactics like that could easily get Turnbull elected. Unless there’s some really really good reason why Rudd is apparently capitulating (albeit only fleetingly) over fuel tax.

  32. 31
    netveggie, I reckon that if Mr. Moneypants got the gig as Opposition Leader, the Opposition would be in even worse trouble. If ‘call me Brendon’ comes across as insincere, Turnbull comes across as another know it all, ego driven, his own ambition to be the boss cocky and bugger anyone else or anything else, more than anything I’ve seen. I know there’s a lot of speculation out there about Turnbull, but he couldn’t even unite his own party. Rudd has united his party.

  33. Oh, and what Rudd clearly communicates is his ambition is to serve the population, which is why I think all the ‘honeymoon’ guff is just that. He comes across as someone with integrity, which is why I think the so-called pundits hostile to him, don’t get him.

  34. Barcelona Tonight ran two anti-rudd stories tonight – first the usual “poor pensioner” bearing the brunt of increases in costs of living and a story on a kid being refused access to subsidised Growth Hormones cos “he’s not sick enogh”, complete with Christopher Pyne on the case – they didn’t mention that these guidelines were introduced by the Previous Govt.

  35. Just saw that Rudd was in the Broncos dressing room tonight after their win talking to Wallace. Good look.

    FWIW, it was a great game as well.

  36. Youre spot on Ari, the press never learn. This is now the 5th or 6th time we’ve been told the honeymoon is over. The polls didnt move after the so called damaging Turnbull leaks, and they wont move now, although I expect even a MOE movement downward for Labor will be trumpetted as the big shift. Anyone who actually watched the proceedings or a Rudd interview this week can see how he handled a very difficult issue

  37. Seen this?
    [via Paul Norton at LP]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23781070-5013404,00.html

    “Penny Wong in clash with carbon emitters”

    “TENSIONS are emerging between major greenhouse emitters and Climate Minister Penny Wong after a number of hostile meetings before the release of the Government’s green paper on emissions trading in July.

    Senator Wong has told small groups of chief executives from major power and other energy-intensive companies that the Rudd Government’s election promise of a renewable energy target was “not negotiable”.

    One of these meetings in Melbourne last Tuesday completely broke down, with Senator Wong reportedly furious at the way she was being treated by the eight business leaders present ……….”

    Will there be an orchestrated media campaign against the coming policy, the ALP and Penny in particular?
    That’s a powerful group she has taken on.

  39. “This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era”

    William I will take this in the tongue in cheek way I hope it was intended!

  40. Fred at 37

    [That’s a powerful group she has taken on.]

    Yep, but they aren’t going to get a lot of sympaty from the voters. The Australian public are willing to wear some pain to address climate change – Rudd has done a good education job on this issue as well. Provided the low income earners and ensioners (and carers) get some reprieve from the cost increases, the big emitters will just be seen as crying crocodile tears.

    That said, they have the money to throw at the media but I think the hard yards done by Rudd and the green movement over the past few years will mean that any industry campaign will only be viewed cynically.

  41. 15 Harry ‘S’ Organs

    Quote of the day: ‘They keep looking at him and what he’s about through glasses that needed replacing ten years ago.’

    MSM and Libs just don’t have the smarts or the mental agility to keep up. It was a brilliant stroke for Rudd to acknowledge that he’d had a bad week but hey, it’s like that sometimes. And then to get on with the next thing while they’re still thrashing around muttering petrol excise FuelWatch petrol excise FuelWatch. As my hairdresser says, I’m loving this new colour.

  42. 41
    Thanks, apres, I try and keep up with the standard of the blog. Sniggle. My son reckons I’m a barfly! He’s probably right.

  43. Andrew: “This is now the 5th or 6th time we’ve been told the honeymoon is over”.

    Andrew, you haven’t been paying attention (unless you mean 5th or 6th time since last Sunday). Surely is the 505th, 506th call that the honeymoon is over. (lol)

  44. Frank # 34
    If Barcelona Tonight keep telling fibs getting sued and losing court cases they might not be along for much longer (we can only hope)

  46. Vera: I did enjoy the other networks giving Channel 7 a serve over the Mercedes Corby business. TODAY TONIGHT makes ACA look credible in comparison.

  48. vera @ 44 – Though to be fair, IMHO, BT was the victim of a great injustice in that case.

    BTW-true story: Some years ago BT did an expose of a very shonky carpet cleaning mob. To my surprise 7 ran an add for the same company the next morning so I rang to complain. The big cheese wouldn’t speak to me, so got buck passed around for a while before being put through to BT’s producer. Her response: “Business is business.” followed by a click as she hung up on me. LOL

  50. 47
    Frank, I haven’t a clue about the case or the irony of Stuart Littlemore representing Mercedes Corby. Would you mind telling what this is about?

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