Morgan: 61-39

Today’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey of 842 voters, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 61-39 from 60.5-39.5 at the similar poll last week. This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era.

Other news:

• State and federal ministers met in Sydney today to discuss reform proposals being considered for a green paper to be issued in July, including bans on all corporate and union donations. The Coalition has confirmed that opposition is where it belongs by indicating it will oppose government legislation reducing the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $10,000 to $1000, after the previous government wantonly used its Senate majority to increase it from the existing $1500. A “Coalition spokesman” quoted by the Financial Review said the current government move was “like asking the Collingwood Football Club to review the AFL’s salary cap” – perhaps I should offer some sort of prize to the commenter who can best make sense of this analogy. Senators John Faulkner (Labor) and Michael Ronaldson (Liberal) jousted over electoral reforms during yesterday’s lively Senate estimates hearings, but transcripts are not yet available.

• A paper by Phillip Senior and Peter van Onselen on leadership effects in federal elections, published in the latest issue of the Australian Journal of Political Science, is freely available online (or at least, I thought it was – now I can’t find the link). Using Australian Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, they find leader preference scored higher than issue variables in driving vote choice at every election except 1998, when the GST mattered more than opinion of Howard or Beazley. The GST also scored notably high in 1993, though not as high as opinion of Keating.

• Unelected candidates for Franklin at the 2006 Tasmanian state election have been invited to nominate for the June 10 recount to replace Paul Lennon, who has retired from the parliament as well as the premiership. This will involve counting preferences from the 16,666 primary votes cast for Lennon, which will have gone overwhelmingly to unsuccessful Labor candidates Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Both the distribution of Lennon’s preferences and the primary votes (1066 for Butler, 620 for Hulme) suggest that Butler, taxi driver, retired school principal and former president of the Tasmanian Teachers Federation, will succeed in his bid for the seat. The Hobart Mercury reports that Hulme, a 28-year-old “former Labor student who has worked in Mr Lennon’s Kingston electoral office for the past year”, will also nominate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Onimod good for you, you can do those thingies with the smiley face – I’m impressed. I’m glad you’re still here bwtf????

  2. Of course any improvement in the LNP position, and it is bound to occur even if it were run by Micky Mouse, will make it harder for Turnbull to oust Nelson.

    Had a good trip home, filled my wife’s head over ownership of Australian media and their desire to undermine Labor, support Howard, big corporate interests etc….which she will spread to the Chinese community. I have managed to get many of the Chinese here to realise that the OO is a Liberal party paper.

  3. No mention of Fuelwatch or petrol on either 7 or 9 news services tonight in Melbourne. The Libs are going to struggle to keep this issue on the boil. It has cooled down considerably.

  4. I am going to against tide and I expect a bit of a down turn in some of the figures tonight. Maybe not in TPP, but I expect Rudd’s approval to take a dive. One thing, he insulted 2% of the population last week (Public Servants). Insulting a section of the electorate might not matter at the moment but these things add up. It is Howard-like to divide and take the largest chunk.

  5. 334
    ruawake @ 334-

    Why is Lord Dolly of Mayo the opposition spokes-personage on Iraq? Where are Minchin and Robb?


    1) Because much of the meeja see him as the Foreign Minister of the Government-in-Exile , i.e. our true legitimate rulers and not those unspeakable pinko upstarts lead by the even more unspeakable Rudd fellow who’ve somehow managed to usurp the natural order of the things,


    2) because neither Minchin or Robb could point to Iraq (or indeed the M.E.) on a map id their lives depended on it.

  6. neither Minchin or Robb could point to Iraq (or indeed the M.E.) on a map id their lives depended on it

    Ah, but put a tiny teeny dollar sign on the map and they would spot it before you could say ‘war crime’!

  7. Well Fuelwatch is a trivial story anyway. It was only the Medias desire to help the Liberal party that made it in to anything.

    Xenephon would do well to support Fuelwatch in the Senate bearing in mind that fuel prices will probably keep rising and he would have blocked something to help Australians. It costs him nothing in votes to go along with it but it could cost him a something to go against it. The subtle nuances of the negative debate will be forgotten later on.

    On the gay rights issue Family First might vote against it but will the Liberals en bloc go against it? Main stream Australia I think are generally accepting of it now. They may be going against the majority if they block it.

    The Liberal party are still on the negative, do negative things. Block this and that, criticise this and that. It might recover a few lost voters but in the end it might categorize the negative party with no ideas or future vision of tis own. Which is true course, the Liberal party only wants to be in power but doesn’t know why.

  8. And for anybody wishing to stay up and wait for Newspoll; If it is on Lateline, it will be on The Australian website a moment or two beforehand.

  9. 354
    B.S. Fairman, from Rudd’s comments, he expects a bit of a dive in Newspoll. However, like you, I’m a bit worried about how he handled the public service work demand issue. It’s one thing to be yourself prepared to work extremely demanding hours, it’s another, and, in my view, unacceptable to expect it of people down the PS ladder. What I’d be interested in knowing, however, is whether there’s any real evidence that things have changed that much. I’m interested because 2 close rellies have worked at fairly senior levels during the Howard years, and would commonly work absurd hours. Still do, at times, in different roles. Another close rellie running own business, also works absurd hours.

  10. If Newspoll stays within 3% of the last one it is a win for Labor. I expect it to go down a bit simply due to the leaks and Media disembling info. The Media makes out there are some divisions in the Gov’t. Never mind Furgeson denied the first one and Laurie Oaks reportly said the 2nd did not come from the Cabinet.

    The PS will play Ok with the people but some in the PS may feel slighted as B.S. Fairman says. But how many of that 2 % voted Liberal anyway?

    Rudd’s own approval will probably go down but there may not be such a change in preferred PM as Nelson is a dud and people know it.

    Anyway 3% can be passed off as the MoE.

    Still while we may be all hanging out for Newspoll its importance is not much in long term although today it will either cause elation or disappointment for the Liberal Party. A drop could be a blessin in disguise for Labor as it will stop them becoming overconfident.

  11. I dont know how may of you were following that little spat, but apologies to all here – long story – won’t happen again

  12. Thank you, William. We’re all obviously hanging out for the result. Anyone prepared to have a stab? I’ll posit 57/ 43 TPP ALP/Coalition, Primary 46/36 ALP/LNP. For no particular reasons or evidence. I’ll probably be about as accurate as I am with footy tipping.

  13. sorry, no more fretting over each coming Newspoll for the next two years. The polls will come down at some time or other, this we know. If the polls stay above 55/45 for a long while then it is justs fun to watch the LNP send themselves crazy.

    If Labor can pull off 53-54/46 at the next election then that is a real bonus as far as I am concerned.

  14. 368
    cille, rightio. I still get taken aback by the wars that go on here. The Montana etc. thread has been a mighty stoush. Buggered if I know why anyone posting think that what they think will have any bearing on the outcome for the race for POTUS, but people are in there swinging away. Absolutely fascinating. William, your forbearance is remarkable.

  15. cille
    You’re right about what it reads backward, but it’s definitely not Domino posting.
    I’m not sure that there’s any way I can make that clear though. I am a little worried that there’s some baggage being attached inadvertently.
    I have never posted under ‘Domino’.

  16. I expect the polls to go up and down around the 55% mark 2pp for Labor [I think that is now their base popularity] in the next couple of years unless there is a major scandal or earth shattering event.
    But around election in 2010 time I reckon the 2% or so of people who swung back to the Coalition in the last week in 07 will be there for the ALP, cos the fear and smear campaign will have proven to be false.
    So my long range forecast for 2010 is ALP 2PP of about 55%, ie a swing of 2-3% in their favour, some of which, a half a percent to one percent, will be improvement from the Greens.
    So I’m not going to fret over each and every poll between now and then.
    Which applies to this one which surely must be lower for the ALP than the last.
    Simply because Denis and his mates, who have inside knowledge of how it was shaping up in the past few days, would not have made such ‘bold’ statements on the back of nothing.
    Would they?

  17. It is not how many of that 2% is going to change their vote, a government can not afford to be at war with the Public Service. The Government needs a functioning PS to look good.

  18. “Denis and his mates, who have inside knowledge of how it was shaping up in the past few days, would not have made such ‘bold’ statements on the back of nothing. Would they?” I’m assuming this is a bit of sarcasm Fred. Since when has Denis and his mates based any statements on fact.

  19. 373 B. S Fairman
    That’s true. But the effect of the PS in this would not be felt yet with people I don’t think.

    But the PS needs to be dealt with in some way as we did not elect them but elected the Gov’t. Rudd did not come across that well the way it was reported(and there has been plenty of misinfo). But we will see what happens as time goes on.

  20. BS
    I think you’ll find there’s probably at least as many people inside the PS cheering the changes as are lamenting the coming of Rudd. One of the reasons for staff leaving has been the perceived lack of performance and professionalism within the service. Several departments are well known as completely dysfunctional.

  21. ABC News reporting on 5 point drop in TPP and 10 point drop for Rudd, which is the essential research figures?

    The incorrect thing is it is being reported that it is a drop from the last Newspoll.

    We wait to see the Newspoll results?

  22. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ 361 –

    It’s one thing to be yourself prepared to work extremely demanding hours, it’s another, and, in my view, unacceptable to expect it of people down the PS ladder. What I’d be interested in knowing, however, is whether there’s any real evidence that things have changed that much.

    According to the Age’s Tony Wright on ABC radio this morning, many of Howard’s staff were expected to be at their desks by 4.30 AM every morning. Basically the only difference between Rudd and Howie is that the latter had the good sense not to antagonise his people with the sort of crap Rudd indulged in last week.

    He also said that Howie had not one but several personal assistants, aka ‘Jeeves’ including on his last visit to Iraq one bloke who just carried Howie’s suit around all day. Apparently, Howard would wear something more comfortable under the flak jacket when being transported between engagements then change into the suit before meetings.


    Thomarse @ 377 –,25197,23799748-12377,00.html

    50% want Costello & Lexy to go

    The other 50% are clearly not mentally competent to vote! 😉

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