Morgan: 61-39

Today’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey of 842 voters, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 61-39 from 60.5-39.5 at the similar poll last week. This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era.

Other news:

• State and federal ministers met in Sydney today to discuss reform proposals being considered for a green paper to be issued in July, including bans on all corporate and union donations. The Coalition has confirmed that opposition is where it belongs by indicating it will oppose government legislation reducing the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $10,000 to $1000, after the previous government wantonly used its Senate majority to increase it from the existing $1500. A “Coalition spokesman” quoted by the Financial Review said the current government move was “like asking the Collingwood Football Club to review the AFL’s salary cap” – perhaps I should offer some sort of prize to the commenter who can best make sense of this analogy. Senators John Faulkner (Labor) and Michael Ronaldson (Liberal) jousted over electoral reforms during yesterday’s lively Senate estimates hearings, but transcripts are not yet available.

• A paper by Phillip Senior and Peter van Onselen on leadership effects in federal elections, published in the latest issue of the Australian Journal of Political Science, is freely available online (or at least, I thought it was – now I can’t find the link). Using Australian Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, they find leader preference scored higher than issue variables in driving vote choice at every election except 1998, when the GST mattered more than opinion of Howard or Beazley. The GST also scored notably high in 1993, though not as high as opinion of Keating.

• Unelected candidates for Franklin at the 2006 Tasmanian state election have been invited to nominate for the June 10 recount to replace Paul Lennon, who has retired from the parliament as well as the premiership. This will involve counting preferences from the 16,666 primary votes cast for Lennon, which will have gone overwhelmingly to unsuccessful Labor candidates Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Both the distribution of Lennon’s preferences and the primary votes (1066 for Butler, 620 for Hulme) suggest that Butler, taxi driver, retired school principal and former president of the Tasmanian Teachers Federation, will succeed in his bid for the seat. The Hobart Mercury reports that Hulme, a 28-year-old “former Labor student who has worked in Mr Lennon’s Kingston electoral office for the past year”, will also nominate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. [I’d suspect that they’re well and truly out of step with ‘middle Australia’ in refusing to give gay and lesbian people rights that heterosexual people take for granted.]

    Another example of the LNP living in a different era and not realising it. To most people now, IMHO, those who were for and against, it is historic issue, it has been accepted and the emotion taken out of it, the new battle line is marriage.

    Nelson and co keep attacking empty trenches, they don’t know where the front is.

    Like I said before the election there must be some way to get to these partisan media outlets and partisan journalists so that they dont find it so simple and easy to be dishonest to Australia, or bypass them.

    All that it really requires is for the punter to get it into their mind as accepted, that the MSM is against the government. With that sort incredulity operating it wont matter what the media say, they will have to back it up with real data.

    Monicas/catch phrases such as big oil media, dirty coal media, big insurance media, anti-Rudd media and so on. Peple are more than willing to countenance conspiracy theories now days, thanks to the shenanigans of Bush and Howard.

  2. Gary

    I felt as you did for Nelson up to the 5 cents off petrol saga. Not only was that populist but impplied a willingness to be cyncically destructive of our econmy to be so. After that I concluded he deserved what he gets.

  3. Q-time
    Rudd is giving a speech on Iraq and there is a fair bit of LP baiting over Iraq.
    I see the ghost with eyebrows found the need to pop his head up over the parapet this morning. I expect fathead lexy to be hitting the airwaves ASAP.

    This is the definitive history of Australia’s involvement in Iraq from the start apparently – warts and all.

  4. Hey they may have to strap The Rodent down to stop him getting into his army fatigues and going to meet the returning Iraq soldiers, lol, old habits die hard and all that.

  5. They should be making these statements at some other time. If Nelson uses his 22 minutes, 3/4 of ABC TV’s Question Time telecast will have been used up. There’s nothing new in these speeches. The decision was made months ago. Question time should be for questions.

  6. To be frank, Kina, I think we are already at the stage of mass public disbelief of nearly all political commentary in our newspapers.

    In WA I have noticed this to be the case even amongst dyed in the wool Liberal supporters, and the treatment of Buswell (let’s face it, it was too good a running joke for any media outlet to overlook) has had an effect even on their psyche.

    MSM has become increasingly irrelevant simply because it abused its position of relevance. It’s exaggeration, manipulation and convolution of truth, and it’s creation of it’s own parallel reality of it, is no longer subtle; it is blatant and hipocritical and even the undiscerning are aware of it.

    The (to them) unbelievable has happened, the plebs are questioning their motives and are cutting through their thin veneers of credibility to the ugly lies and baseness beneath.

  7. oh god

    Nelson is making the case for WMD in his reply to a ministerial statement from Rudd.
    He’s following it up for the ‘tit-for-tat’ defence that Saddam was bad so we can be too.

  8. This speech is serious fluff from Nelson.
    Typically looking back – this guy should be a historian.
    He can’t even place his indignation appropriately.

  9. It’s evident from its own questions that the government has had enough of the petrol debate, but the Opposition keeps pounding away.

  10. Speaking of the MSM, here is some honest reporting of a study on it by itself:

    “A key finding was that participants yearned for quality and in-depth reporting but had difficulty immediately accessing such content because they were bombarded by facts and updates in headlines and snippets of news.”

    Just to prove that we tend to follow other countries ideas rather than think up our own, regardless of whether or not the ideas are good, this study was of news consumption in US, UK and India. I suspect we fit the pattern here too.

  11. some doctor’s groups are OK (unlike AMA)

    “Former prime minister John Howard could face the International Criminal Court for sending Australian troops to Iraq, under a plan backed by a doctor’s group.”

    “Mr Howard committed Australian troops to the illegal non-UN approved war in Iraq on the basis of misleading information about WMD (weapons of mass destruction),” association spokesman Dr Robert Marr said in a statement.

    “As a result of the illegal war in Iraq, over 650,000 Iraqi citizens have died unnecessarily.

    “We understand a legal brief has been prepared by ICCACTION (International Criminal Court Action) Victoria to forward to the International Criminal Court.”

  12. Nelson has just asked a cynical question on ‘Grocerywatch’.
    extremely childish.
    Rudd responds with the complete facts and figures of the ACCC inquiry, something the question didn’t deserve in the slightest. This gets right up those on the left’s nose. How dare he not slip in to name calling!!!

  13. #305

    No big deal. Kororoit is a super-safe Labor seat. Haermeyer got 76% of the 2PP vote last time. The Libs won’t even stand a candidate in the by-election (given the failure to stand in much more marginal seats like Albert Park).

  14. Another question time and another weak effort from the opposition. They are becoming more and more fractured each session seemingly without a strategy. I’m not sure if its Nelson or Hockey who should be held to account for their insipid parliamentary performance. It’s laughable.

  15. 320
    The lack of strategy is pretty telling.
    The irony of Hockey complaining about legislation being rammed through is just laughable.
    It’s not right, but Hockey’s crew dared to venture on to the frozen lake while in government and now can’t believe no-one is waiting to save them.
    It’s just symptomatic of their deferral of their responsibilities and reliance on weasel-words.
    No offence, but I just love seeing lawyers and neocons being chewed up an spat out the back when they’ve moved reliance to language, instead of spirit.

  16. ruawake, I’m amazed that anyone who watches these sessions could think for one minute that the opposition are mounting a serious challenge to the Labor government. I guess that’s why Nelson has gone the populist route (funnily enough his populist route may turn out to be extremely unpopular) with alcopops and fuel excise as they really have nothing at all to contribute to the big issues of the day. Where are they on health, education, security? The silence from them is deafening.

  17. 332
    i think that pollster does on line polling.
    what about Spear’s big statement “well we can officially announce the honeymoon is well and truly over” Wanker!
    ALP 56 down 5
    Rabble 46 up 5

    Rudd approval down 10 to 57

    Nothing about Brenda

  18. #332 vera
    I thought it was the pollster who said the honeymoon was over. If Speers said it too I missed it.

    It was 56-44

  19. Just on Sky
    Their latest poll
    Should Australian troops be pulling out of Iraq?
    Yes 51
    No 49

    LOL SMH same poll

    Yes 81
    No 19

  20. Enjaybee 333

    Thanks; I had forgotten that. It only makes their buying strategy more silly though. I don’t see how it can be sustained.

  21. 334
    The LP is still in fear of the old regime.
    If they had any real policy, as opposed to personal ideology, they might find a few people who would be prepared to defend it. In the absence, we get Lexy the luddite.

  22. I would like to see some of the normal polls to know what the change has been. Nothing to compare this one against.

    Speers, I dont know why he bothers.

    AND any Skynooz poll you would have to take with a pinch of salt until you know the make up of who they polled. You would hope their viewer database wasn’t polled, haha.

    Usually the run of the mill Skynooz polls strongly favour the Liberal position – the major demographic of their viewers no doubt. But I gather we are talking about an independent poll.

  23. I’ll wait for the real polls. By the way there was a time where I’d be delighted with Labor TPP 56 – 44.

  24. If it were 56-44 that would be a very good result considering the belting Rudd has had by the Media. But we do not know when the last poll was taken and from when this poll dropped by 5%.

    Best wait for the real polls.

  25. Brenda never mentioned wheelchairs, babies or oil in his statement to parliament on the withdrawal of troops – I wonder why?
    He didn’t even look like he was going to cry …gosh what a compassionate guy!
    What about all the lost children in Iraq – the lucky ones in wheelchairs with not a hope in hell let alone of their (dead) parents owning a Tarago.
    Brenda sits in a gutter at 3 am and ponders why, oh why.
    This makes me sick and to think I heard Spears say he spoke so eloquently …..

  26. cille
    I appreciate your sense of dedication, but man, do yourself a favour and turn that junk off. Is it any more than a fluffer for conservatives and filler for Qantas lounges?
    How far are we away from the claim that the opposition is ‘97% fat free’ and that it’s good for you?

  27. Just as well I don’t have Pay TV, otherwise I’d be throwing rocks at the LCD screen whenever Spears appears.
    If there is some big swing back to the Liberals in the Newspoll, wouldn’t it have been leaked on the commercial news bulletins? None have mentioned Newspoll tomorrow.

  28. onimod – sorry to bring up the old junk and intrude on your sensibilities. Got carried away I guess. (Homework) I must remember not to dwell in the past x 1000 times. I promise to do better x 1000 times. Don’t mention the war x 1000 times.
    Man, I feel better already! (don’t know how to do emoticon but its smiling)
    Oh, and the Libs, about full cream at the moment!

  29. I’m just worried for you cille 🙂
    I have my own addictions and associated problems…
    I’m still here for a start!

  30. Don’t dissuade the Libs from keeping Nelson on. He’s one of the best assets Labor has come the next election.

  31. “Why is Lord Dolly of Mayo the opposition spokes-personage on Iraq?”

    He is just bringing to our attention that he is not suffering from the dreaded “Relevance deprivation syndrome.”

    “Nope, no relevance deprivation syndrome here” says Lexy, again.

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