Today’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey of 842 voters, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 61-39 from 60.5-39.5 at the similar poll last week. This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era.
Other news:
• State and federal ministers met in Sydney today to discuss reform proposals being considered for a green paper to be issued in July, including bans on all corporate and union donations. The Coalition has confirmed that opposition is where it belongs by indicating it will oppose government legislation reducing the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $10,000 to $1000, after the previous government wantonly used its Senate majority to increase it from the existing $1500. A “Coalition spokesman” quoted by the Financial Review said the current government move was “like asking the Collingwood Football Club to review the AFL’s salary cap” – perhaps I should offer some sort of prize to the commenter who can best make sense of this analogy. Senators John Faulkner (Labor) and Michael Ronaldson (Liberal) jousted over electoral reforms during yesterday’s lively Senate estimates hearings, but transcripts are not yet available.
• A paper by Phillip Senior and Peter van Onselen on leadership effects in federal elections, published in the latest issue of the Australian Journal of Political Science, is freely available online (or at least, I thought it was – now I can’t find the link). Using Australian Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, they find leader preference scored higher than issue variables in driving vote choice at every election except 1998, when the GST mattered more than opinion of Howard or Beazley. The GST also scored notably high in 1993, though not as high as opinion of Keating.
• Unelected candidates for Franklin at the 2006 Tasmanian state election have been invited to nominate for the June 10 recount to replace Paul Lennon, who has retired from the parliament as well as the premiership. This will involve counting preferences from the 16,666 primary votes cast for Lennon, which will have gone overwhelmingly to unsuccessful Labor candidates Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Both the distribution of Lennon’s preferences and the primary votes (1066 for Butler, 620 for Hulme) suggest that Butler, taxi driver, retired school principal and former president of the Tasmanian Teachers Federation, will succeed in his bid for the seat. The Hobart Mercury reports that Hulme, a 28-year-old “former Labor student who has worked in Mr Lennon’s Kingston electoral office for the past year”, will also nominate.
I also don’t worry too much about what Newspoll says this week. Realistically, thanks to the booby trapped economic settings left by the great manages in the previous government, some painfull changes were necessary. Add in the fuel price spike and the circumstances are difficult.
But from here things will improve for Rudd. The tax cuts will kick in on July 1 and give people some relief. If they don’t, it will be because the Coalition has blocked parts of them, which will be about as popular as trying to hang onto Workchoices. By cutting now, Rudd and Swan should get inflation more under control over the next two years. If they can go to the next election with inflation trending down they will be recognised as much better manages than the clowns they replaced. Combined with having kept their promises on a whole host of non-economic issues, from Iraq to detention centres, they will be in good shape.
The only issue I’d like to see more effort on is climate change, and I suppose the Garnaut report timetable allows that to be dealt with. If they use the investment funds intelligently, that can be dealt with too.
Wish the bloody public service would stop whinging though.
Speaking of Rudd keeping promises, the withdrawl of Australian troops from Iraq is being reported on nine late TV news. They referred to it as “keeping an election promise” by Rudd. That sort of thing will help. Fuel is just one issue, and for most people it is peanuts compared to the cost of a mortgage.
242
charles
Maybe Mick’s been doing too much Blade Runner! LOL
Oh sh!t, the bloody cyborgs have nicked my car again!
I don’t think so, somehow.
The other BS will pass into obscurity very quickly as other issues take hold.
Janet A’s latest blog in the Oz is not getting the type of response she was hoping for.
I had a read of a number of responses and an overwhelming number of them are not buying her rubbish.
{This PS issue is a beat up. The people who rang the radio station were just lazy whingers who expect everything from the world. They represent a very small minority of the PS. The rest of us aren’t afraid of hard work. Why should we be?!?}
and
{You dill Janet.
NOT ONCE, did you mention John Howard’s disrespect for the opinions of the public service. When he didn’t like what they said he vilified them and replaced them.
You liberal types need to wise up to the fact that you LOST the election, and lose the sour grapes. }
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pm_must_treat_public_servants_with_respect
My god, the thought of visiting a JA blog gives me the creeps. I need to take a shower to feel clean again.
Sondeo:
Hear hear! This is the point that Labor should hammer again and again and again.
The crocodile tears from the tories claiming to “care about people doing it tough”, when just months ago were championing one of the western world’s most extreme IR systems, is so much hypocrisy, that Labor has years worth of ammunition to beat them over the head about it.
IN A landmark 6-1 decision with implications for the current debate in Australia about WorkChoices, the Supreme Court of Canada has confirmed that the human right of freedom of association includes a right of workers to collectively bargain in good faith with their employers.
The court acknowledged that human dignity, equality, liberty, respect for the autonomy of the person and the enhancement of a democracy are all values that are complemented and promoted by the protection of collective bargaining provided by Canada’s Charter of Rights.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/collectively-condemning-workchoices/2007/06/19/1182019115981.html
Hmmm lets repeat that…..
human dignity, equality, liberty, respect for the autonomy of the person and the enhancement of a democracy are all values that are complemented and promoted by the protection of collective bargaining….
NOt that the Howard boys were interested in such trivialities
That was the very last thing on the rodent’s mind.
More bad news for Dr Alchopop.
[The Nationals are considering ending their historic federal coalition with the Liberal Party as part of a review of the rural party’s future.
And in Queensland, a proposed merger of the two parties could be delayed after the newly elected state Liberal president said members had grave fears about rushing the plans.
The Nationals are the dominant party in the Queensland coalition but the junior party everywhere else.
Federally just 10 members of parliament are Nationals, half the number of two decades ago.
Former leader John Anderson is reviewing the party’s federal future and Nationals leader Warren Truss said all options were being considered.
“We’re looking at all the options, not just merger,” Mr Truss told Network Ten.
“We’re looking at the potential to even go it alone or to have a stronger role or a different role within the coalition.
“All the options are on the table, as they ought to be following election defeats and following our determination to try and make sure that we have in place the best structures to represent those who want to support non-Labor politics in this country.”
Asked if he was talking about dismantling the coalition, Mr Truss repeated that all options were on the table.
The conservative parties have been in coalition federally since 1922, apart from short breaks such as the four-month split caused by the Joh for PM push in 1987.]
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=486887
On the thesis of Howard only ever using the PM’s role to enhance his status, particularly (or probably purely) in the eyes of Republican America it does make other things fall into place.
Howard in his quest to impress and seek approval of American Republican politicians (as well Bush and Bushites and the likes of Cheney, Rove etc) lead to him deliberately going overboard in his laws and rhetoric and control of everything he could control.
The extraordinary attack on Obama and the Democrats as the party best for terrorism was purely to impress Bush and the Republicans; Howard the little kid showing off to the big boys. It also showed that Howard put his desire to be impressive toward neocon America before the strategic alliance of this country.
Little Johny was trying to make Australia a little Republican America and hand delivered it to them as a gift in exchange for life acceptance into the club.
Just how devastated would Howard have been when he saw how well Bush and Rudd got on, especially that little salute? A lover cheated on, no longer special or unique, just ordinary ex John. Howard would have received a big wake up call from that. He is not one of them, useful at the time but not part of the neocon club really, only tolerated with polite smiles.
If status and reputation is all the Howard was interested in well he has lost a lot of it. The state of the party left behind is his fault and reflects on him.
Nick Xenophon is wobbling on FuelWatch.
If Kevin Rudd is as big a control freak as they say he is, his head might explode trying to deal with the new Senate.
The withdrawal of Australian troops from Iraq was on ABC radio news this morning. They asked Nelson for a comment and his reply was along the lines of:
“Oh that, we knew that was happening. But I don’t want to talk about that, I want to keep talking about FuelWatch this week”.
They really think they’re on to a winner.
So we’ve gone from:
What happens in Iraq has everything to do with our security and our future. That’s why we believe and we will stand up whether it’s candidates pushing these views in other countries or in our own, we will stand up to do what is right, and that’s what the Prime Minister has done. (Brendan Nelson, Minister for Defence, on “Lateline” 12/2/07)
to it being “Oh that…I don’t want to talk about that.”
Man of Sponge!
Troop withdrawal ‘shouldn’t overshadow’ petrol price issue
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/02/2261831.htm
Sometimes they leave me speechless. When did they turn into a single issue party?
nelson effectively has lost the armed forces vote by this brushoff
where is the outrage from the MSM for his unpatriotic response?
The Liberal ‘decision’ to involve Australia in the Iraq mess in the first place, which pushed up the price of oil
+
Liberals blocking consumers’ access to information that can help them find the cheapest petrol in their suburbs
= a rhetorical & political goldmine for Labor. Go for it, Kev!
Even a 1 point drop in Labor’s vote will be interpreted by the MSM hacks as some massive swing back to the Liberals(rolls eyes).
And the Poisoned Dwarf(Milne) was on Alan Jones this morning, getting stuck into Rudd about some thing or other!
There is a story in The Age “Honda unveil People’s hybrid”
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/05/30/1211654284580.html
Honda plan to have a hybrid version of every model in their line up within two years.
This is exactly why our car industry needs to rapidly change course. Why would anyone buy a local V6 when you could buy a Honda hybrid for the same price? This sort of change will threaten both our local market and the export market for our V6s. Our previous industry policy was written as though we lived in a vacuum, where if our local manufacturers didn’t adjust to peak oil neither would anyone else. As the Honda announcement shows, the smarter overseas rivals are changing strategy fast. Our car industry is about to be wiped out within two years unless they make more economical markets very fast.
This is the real issue about fuel prices, not some nonsense about 5 cents a litre. It is a huge threat to what is left of our domestic manufacturing industry.
Sorry in previous post I meant to say “unless they make more economical cars very fast.”
I would say there are at least 10,000 jobs in Melbourne, and 5000 more in Adelaide under threat from this issue.
A good friend of mine works for one of the remaining local car manufacturers. I get to speak to pretty senior execs from time to time at functions, dinners etc. that we attend together.
The execs’ heads are buried in the sand over big cars. Because a few rev-heads want them they think they can just continue to service that market. Many of the execs aren’t far from rev-heads themselves, for that matter.
Stocks on the smaller cars in the range have run out because other countries are snapping them up. Meanwhile, here in Australia we just continue to indulge in large tanks that are euphemistically called “family cars”. In the meantime they just go on selling the gas guzzlers.
What I don’t think they realise (or, if they do, they’re not telling Little Me) is that if petrol goes up to $2 a litre and beyond (and it could happen easily within 12 months) then the “families” they’re relying on to purchase their monstrosities will evaporate away from the dealers’ forecourts.
The reality is that the big car manufacturers depend on fleet sales and the hard-heads at fleet purchasing offices all over the country are having the scales removed from their eyes regarding the soaring cost of fuel.
Already the truckies are complaining they can’t afford $5,000 for fuel one-way on the Brisbane-Melbourne run. Pretty soon the rest will follow. These are changing times, and catering for big car junkies who will dwindle to a small rump of car users ain’t the way to adapt.
Bill
Yes The Age article noted that Honda only had a quote of 900 Civic hybrids to sell in Australia because of demand elsewhere. Similarly most Toyota Prius’s are headed for the US market. So at the moment they are not really trying here. But Toyota and Honda are both building hybrid factories now. When the gloves come off and both try to mass market economical hybrids here it will hurt us.
I think this is more than a big car versus small car thing. It is really a powerful car versus economical car question. I would describe cars like Honda Civics and Toyota Corollas as medium rather than small. They comfortably fit four adults and have a boot. They are reliable and have low running costs other than fuel alone. They are not complex either so why can’t we make them here?
Also re fleet purchases, its not just fuel cost but resale price. A lot of State government fleet purchases rely on selling the cars second hand after two years for virtually no loss thanks to being exempt to sales tax at purchase. But that relies on the resale value holding up. I recall that the Qld government has a mountain of unsold government cars because they couldn’t get the price they expected for them when they were disposed of after two years. Once that sort of change trickles through the fleet market will move fast. I really think this market (V6s) is headed for a crash when you look at the reality of what is selling now and the second hand prices.
I shot off an e-mail to Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun. It went – “You say the honeymoon is over. Can you supply me with the latest polls showing this to be so. As far as I know there aren’t any at this time. I’ve yet to see a positive article on Rudd by you. True to form Gerard.”
I’ll give Gerard one thing, he always replies and for that I actually have a lot of repect for him. His reply was – “The honeymoon is over when the reality of government sets in, just like marriage. It has got nothing to do with the polls. Note also that I wrote the Kevin Rudd honeymoon was the longest in political memory.
There are quite a few problems facing the government, including petrol, inflation, Cabinet leaks.
Kevin Rudd himself said last week was the toughest week he had had in since he became Prime Minister.
Every other paper wrote the same thing, including the Age….saying the PM’s honeymoon was over.
I have tried to be reasonable with you, accepting your criticisms but you keep making snide remarks like “true to form” which I think are quite unfair.”
Has everyone else viewed “the honeymoon is over” statement in that way? I thought it referred to how the general public viewed the government.
Most of the media is in on the act now, portraiting Labor in a negative light for no particular reason really. Wonder who or what is behind it.The list of suspects is long – murdoch, oil, coal, medical insurance, Howard lovers, Gisspland election…
When did it all sart? When the fuelwatch issue was raised?
‘Real’ men don’t drive hybrids – c’mon!
I wonder if anyone has got some purchasing statistics for gen Y? My anecdotal evidence is that car ownership is certainly not the ‘must have’ it used to be.
So in the past when the commentators said ‘the honeymoon is over’ they were referring to a number of different honeymoons, all running consecutively with the same person, which have consequently ended until now we are left with the second last one (the last one being an actual shift in the polls)?
The existence of these numerous honeymoons and their ending were known to all the media at the time but were never shared with the general reading public (who would have been too stupid to grasp the idea).
Similarly, now every single commentator who is talking about ‘the honeymoon is over’ is referring specifically to the ‘honeymoon’ of ‘easy peasy gee this governing thing isn’t hard at all’ which they now all agree has ended.
I know we’re all ignorant prols out here in reader world, but it would be nice if the intellectual elite occasionally condescended to try and explain to us what is going on.
A list of the honeymoons they have been referring to, and the date of their official demise, would be a useful start.
The way I understand ‘The Honeymoon Period’ is when a government is newly elected, the Media and the voters are tolerant of a few little mistakes due to being new in the job. So when did the media give this new Rudd government an easy time?
They have been attacking Kevin 07 since early 2007, trying to find some mud to stick.
A quick google gives 67,400 hits for ‘rudd honeymoon over’
The earliest prediction of the end of the honeymoon I can find is from Peter Harcher, writing on December 7, 2006 (Rudd was elected as Opposition Leader on December 4).
Would be interesting to see how many hits you could get for ‘columnist admits wrong about end of honeymoon, promises never to make rash predictions again’.
Hartcher was keen to see the end of “the honeymoon” it seems. He still is I believe.
The Libs ahave lost it. This from Dutton – Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is using stunts to distract attention away from the debate about soaring fuel prices, an opposition frontbencher says.
Even withdrawing combat troops from Iraq was a diversionary tactic, Peter Dutton said.
They have got to be joking.
There are all these references to “the honeymoon” and “the narrowing”. Both seem to refer to the (desired?) change from polls where the ALP leads (honeymoon polls) to polls where the Coalition leads (after the narrowing). Does that mean these “journalists” see any poll where Labor leads as some kind of abberation? Do they think that voters will always vote Liberal when they come to their senses? Are we out of our minds not thinking Nelson is wonderful? I’ve heard of push-polling; now we have push-reporting.
Why don’t the writers just come out of their Liberal-loving closet, get jobs with Crosby Textor, and become full time conservative campaigners. At least then I could respect them for being honest about their prejudices.
These people do annoy me. They are not just right wing, but mindlessly and uncritically so. If I can admit that Latham was a disaste as Labor leader, why can’t they admit Nelson is a disaster as Liberal leader? He’s only being propped up by a few unethical public servants and a partisan press gallery.
Now Brenda’s mob may block the same sex reforms, send them off to a senate inquiry.
It could be September before they go back to the senate and Mr Family First ain’t likely to pass them is he?
Wonder how the gay groups that accepted these reforms as a given and then turned on Rudd about his stance over gay marriage putting the boot in, accusing him of breaking election promises, are feeling now.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/threat-to-stall-samesex-reforms/2008/06/01/1212258652642.html
There would be hardly any one in Australia that doesn’t know that rising fuel prices are entirely the result of international oil price rises and, out of the control of governments.
Nelson wants to keep the debate open on this for what purpose?
No matter how he attacks Labor on fuel prices it wont change the facts in peoples minds. And I guess Labor can mention that invading Iraq didn’t help anyone or that putting a GST on fuel didn’t help anyone.
The debate over fuel watch is also an academic one. Its intuitive that it should help and also intuitive that it wont hurt. At best a neutral result in the punters mind. AND at least Labor is trying something. Nelson in flogging this item is going nowhere – there is no hook on it, he will be as far as the punter is concerned just making noise and, their attention will have moved on by now.
They will win no one over on this issue and this is especially true when punters see internationally (Britain for instance) that fuel prices are a major concern.
This is a hollow ‘attack’ by Nelson and the MSM.
If the LNP pick up in the polls it wont be because of fuel prices it will be because the MSM is making it seem the Opposition is actually being an Opposition and the MSM trying its hardest to undermine the government, for purely political ends.
You can bet a lot of the MSM & Liberal friends in oil, gas, coal, medical insurance and so on are keen to push them to undermine the government. The Howard ‘friends’ feathered their pockets at Australias expense for a long time – they will be keen to get rid of the government so than go back corrupting a corruptible Liberal party in Govt.
Kina
As per my posts 270 and 273, the real issue with fuel prices is the survivial of the Australian car industry in the short term and inflation impact in the medium term. Any views on how this can be raised? The economic survival of places like Geelong is the “elephant in the room” that the MSM hasn’t mentioned. Announcment of a concrete plan to resolve that by Labor would be well received in the electorate in my view.
G’day all,
I personally don’t think Nelson will get a boost in the opinion polls. I hope so but I don’t believe so.
I tend to agree with you John but why do you think so? I believe the Libs may get a mall bounce but I don’t think Nelson himself will make any inroads. The perception out there is that he is a dud, rightly or wrongly. Perceptions are very hard to change and you don’t change them in one week.
283 Vera
The Libs must think that they are on a winner by stalling the same-sex reforms. I’d suspect that they’re well and truly out of step with ‘middle Australia’ in refusing to give gay and lesbian people rights that heterosexual people take for granted. And they can’t hide behind the threat of gay marriage since the legislation is about removing discrimination and not gay marriage. Out of touch, tricky and mean.
make that small bounce
286
John of Melbourne
Why is that John?
For the record, I haven’t subscribed to the West Australian for about ten years, even before the advent of their current loathsome editorial staffing arrangements. But the neighbour is on holidays, and a copy of the Western Drivel is my daily reward for feeding his fish and walking his dog.
The headline which greeted me today was “Newspapers win in credibility stakes”.
The first paragraph read as follows: “A major study has found Australians are reading newspapers more than ever because they are more ‘absorbing, dynamic and reputable’ than any other source “.
On reading futher I was informed that the font of this remarkable revelation was a “…study commissioned by the newspapers industry’s marketing body, The Newspaper Works” .
The CEO of WA Newspapers deduced from this that it was firm proof of newspapers’ importance. “It confirms in an era of information overload, that the role of professional journalists and information coming from a credible,trusted source actually becomes more important.”.
So there you have it. The newspapers’ union strikes back in support of its members. We were wrong all the time.
No matter that there is nothing in what the West reports to substantiate this opinion and that it has deliberately juxtaposed percentage figures which are irrelevant to its conclusion to appear to justify its own assessment.
But then again it is just the sort of trash the we have come to expect from our “credible, trusted source”.
Gary I don’t believe Nelson is a dud it’s just that Kevin has too much good will at the minute. Like JWH before him no one is listening to him, in time they will but we need a few more fuel watch type episodes.
Apres hopefully they do.
Steve K I don’t beleive too many people are listening to Nelson at the minute. KR has too much good will.
292 John – again, John, I agree with your reasoning. I don’t think Nelson is the complete dud he has been painted to be but the PERCEPTION is that he is a dud and that is worse than the reality and harder to shift. I believe Beazley suffered the same problem. I don’t see Nelson ever being PM.
291 Fulvio
Yes you wonder why they feel the need to commission such “research”. I suppose they must be comparing themselves to the Advertiser.
But consider the real tests of a papers credibility. Lets face it, as long as the West Australian still tips Freemantle and West Coast to win each weekend, they are just telling the supporters what they want to hear, and cannot be believed. Its a bit like the way they report politics to the few members remaining in the WA Liberals.
Gary you’re right perception is everything. Didn’t Beazley win the popular vote in 98?
Got to go now see you all later… 🙂
I know you’ve left us John but Beazley negative perception haunted him later in is stint as opposition leader, after the ’98 election and he didn’t overcome that handicap. Once the perception is negative rarely does it go back to positive.
The “no ticker” label hurt the Bommer
sorry meant Bomber
Gary – have you read any of his media transcripts??
He IS a complete dud, it’s got nothing to do with perception.