Morgan: 61-39

Today’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey of 842 voters, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 61-39 from 60.5-39.5 at the similar poll last week. This was conducted last weekend, and thus offers no guidance on the government’s honeymoon status in the post-FuelWatch leak era.

Other news:

• State and federal ministers met in Sydney today to discuss reform proposals being considered for a green paper to be issued in July, including bans on all corporate and union donations. The Coalition has confirmed that opposition is where it belongs by indicating it will oppose government legislation reducing the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $10,000 to $1000, after the previous government wantonly used its Senate majority to increase it from the existing $1500. A “Coalition spokesman” quoted by the Financial Review said the current government move was “like asking the Collingwood Football Club to review the AFL’s salary cap” – perhaps I should offer some sort of prize to the commenter who can best make sense of this analogy. Senators John Faulkner (Labor) and Michael Ronaldson (Liberal) jousted over electoral reforms during yesterday’s lively Senate estimates hearings, but transcripts are not yet available.

• A paper by Phillip Senior and Peter van Onselen on leadership effects in federal elections, published in the latest issue of the Australian Journal of Political Science, is freely available online (or at least, I thought it was – now I can’t find the link). Using Australian Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, they find leader preference scored higher than issue variables in driving vote choice at every election except 1998, when the GST mattered more than opinion of Howard or Beazley. The GST also scored notably high in 1993, though not as high as opinion of Keating.

• Unelected candidates for Franklin at the 2006 Tasmanian state election have been invited to nominate for the June 10 recount to replace Paul Lennon, who has retired from the parliament as well as the premiership. This will involve counting preferences from the 16,666 primary votes cast for Lennon, which will have gone overwhelmingly to unsuccessful Labor candidates Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Both the distribution of Lennon’s preferences and the primary votes (1066 for Butler, 620 for Hulme) suggest that Butler, taxi driver, retired school principal and former president of the Tasmanian Teachers Federation, will succeed in his bid for the seat. The Hobart Mercury reports that Hulme, a 28-year-old “former Labor student who has worked in Mr Lennon’s Kingston electoral office for the past year”, will also nominate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Yes, well, there’s a lot hingeing on Tuesday’s Newspoll, isn’t there.

    I think it was Grattan (may have been Kerri-Anne Whatsername) who stated this morning in The Age that the Rudd honeymoon was “officially” over.

    What does that mean?

    “Officially” in the minds of a few tired pundit hacks?

    Or “Officially” in the minds of the voters who are polled this weekend?

    One would suspect the latter, one would.

    I am not expecting too much of a change in the Newspoll results, compared to the last one. Nelson ruined it by his convoluted “Tarago in the petrol queue” fairy tale, if not with his assertion that his uncosted 5c a litre excise relief would make a difference to the average punters out there. There will always be a few whingers, but they vote Lib anyway.

    The leak was clearly from a public servant. This is a rat act of the highest order, and the public won’t be sympathetic to the Opposition for it.

    For a long time now the public have wanted Rudd to succeed. I believe they still do. A vote of confidence will most likely be in order come Tuesday’s Newspoll.

  2. “The Rudd honeymoon was “officially” over.” Some journalists keep on telling us this. I’m just wondering how they know it. There hasn’t been one poll published that was taken over this pertiod? Are they telling us we should be “over” Rudd? Just sounds like arrogance mixed with wishful thinking to me.
    I agree with your assessment BB.

  3. maybe some internal polling, maybe some early newspoll results. makes no matter, above 55 was always going to be unsustainable.

  5. I hope Labor attacks the miserable Liberals really aggressively over FuelWatch. Putting it in the terms that they want to deny consumers information that helps them find the cheapest petrol in their suburb, the Liberals would be bound to take a hit in the polls.

  6. PROGRESSIVE 193

    they’ve already attacked the family dog–in estimates the witch wanted to know who was walking the family dog in the Lodge grounds and who was paying for it lol, next they’ll be demanding the cost of the dog and cat food and who’se paying for that, heaven forbid if Marcus want’s to get a canary too, they’ll want to know who will be cleaning out it’s cage and who pays for the birdseed!

  8. 207 vera – At the moment this story has no chance of spreading to other nes outlets. It will be buried. Can’t have the PM being seen as a caring man now can we?

  10. I must admit, being from Victoria and not being up with the rugby the only “Tossers” I’ve heard of are political journalists.

  11. gary
    Notice the difference, Kev quietly goes off and does this sorta stuff without cameras or reporters, whereas Howard called up all his media cronies and was on all news channels to exploit a sick kid who loved orangutans, for his own politcal advantage.

  12. The retail and grocery inquiry will be very interesting, what has come out so far.

    Before Howard the retail industry had four major players, Woolies (@17% market share), Coles (@15%), Davids (@8%) and Franklins (@4%) with the other 56% made up of smaller players.

    Now the big 2 have about 72% market share, the nearest comparable dominance in any other country is the UK, where 1 company has 28% market share.

    Not even the USA has allowed this sort of dominance by the major players and when they do get dominant they are broken up, like the Bell companies.

    How did this happen, is it good for competition, is it good for the consumer, does it affect pricing and inflation.

    Expect teh libs to say the mum and dad shareholders benefit from this dominance, as dividends increase through the 40% rise in profits and tenfold increase in share price, the old Milo principle, what is good for the company is good for you.

  13. the oil industry aught not escalate this issue in this environmet. all too easy to demonise them. in fact the public would be in the mood to support nationalisation.

  14. The Rudd Government’s credibility on petrol prices is in tatters, its ability to function as a sophisticated modern federal government is under question, and it’s stretching credulity on economic management.
    D. Shanahan

    Now that is just plain desperate hyperbolic partisanship, Dennis. VERY unprofessional.

    188
    B.S. Fairman Says:
    Don’t build yourself a still however if want spirits. It can be a little dangerous…. it took months to regrow my eyebrows.

    It is no more dangerous than handling petrol, or deep frying chips. If you want to do it safely, learn from these guys:

    http://www.homedistiller.org/forum/index.php

  15. Kina

    I agree with your view on the current mood but nationalisation of the oil industry would be unthinkable. Quite apart from breaching all sorts of promises we have made on international trade treaties and GATT, it would turn us into a pariah and kill any chance of foreign investment, which we still badly need. Alternatively, we would have to pay billions in compensation, which would wipe out the surplus and all government funds for investmetn in health education and transport. Plus, two of the biggest oil producers in Australia are Woodside and BHPB, locally owned.

  17. You would think with the push along the media have been giving them the leaders of the Libs would be out there on every political show going. Intead we’re treated to Truss and Downer, never have beens. At least the government was represented by a prominent minister, Linsay Tanner, on “Insiders”.

  18. I enjoy lurking daily through this website: comments are often witty, frequently apposite. But as an old “rusted-on” Labor curmudgeon I would not dismiss the MSM too lightly. Their principle is “drip, drip to erode the stone”. No matter how ridiculous, unsustainable or maniacal their stories, they eventually seep into the public perception. I’ve seen it all before.

    I can understand why Kev wants to get as much done as soon as possible; he probably hasn’t got as long as some might think. And he’s smart enough to know it. Hate to be a Cassandra, but that’s the ‘realpolitik’ as I see it.

  19. I agree with you CC at 218. So it is important that the Govt. continue to use the new media and outlets like Sunrise.

    Can anyone remember how the MSM behaved when Keating was defeated? Did those who had been used to having access to Keating and co get all petulant? Was Howard granted recognition as PM in the emotional sense by the MSM? Or all this failure to accept emotionally that Labor won a phenomenon reserved when Labor takes over?

  20. I don’t know, CC. I think Kev will take a hit on Newspoll this week but still reckon the Poll should be reasonable. There has been a sustained attack on Rudd in the last fortnight from the trivia to the more significant issues including his character. The sheer volume will make a difference. The MSM and Opposition have been talking about the budget time for months as “D” day. Short term he will loose something.

    I still think the long term is another matter. Nelson has shot himself in the foot something awful. Those weeks when Rudd was overseas he was travelling around Australia sympathising with everyone on Petrol and Food Prices, by inference blaming the Gov;’t and Rudd’s so-called election promises. All wasted. Now everyone is aware due to the Fuelwatch debate that the Gov’t can only operate around the edges and that Fuel prices are essentially a Global Phenomena. This will stay with people due to courtesy of MSM’s headlines and TV and blame against the Gov’t will be diluted except for the rusted on right wingers. Rudd could have stopped the debate anytime he wanted. Rudd seemed to end the week on an optimistic note almost as if he was satisfied with the weeks’ work.

    Remember one of the reasons Keating lost in 1996 was he failed to convince people that interest rates were essentially a Global issue. Howard and Costello dined out on this for about 11 years.

    Well worth it to loose a little short term popularity for this very important long term political gain.

  21. half time Swannies 73 points ahead!

    This past fortnight since the budget has been make or break for the Libs and they know it. Thus all the msm muckraking for dirt on Kev. Libs need a boost and need it NOW.
    The next sitting after this week the Libs no longer will have senate majority, so Brenda can no longer beat his chest and threaten to block everything. Their voices won’t be heard anymore, by Kev or anyone else.

  22. Vera

    Swannies may be ahead but you need to have a look at the improvement of Richmond.

    From the 1st quarter Richmond have improved their score 15 fold, from the second 2 1/2 times, whereas the Swannies have only improved their score 2 1/2 times since the 1st quarter and have only improved on the second quarter by less than 25%.

    I think you will agree that overall this clearly shows Richmond as the better team and the Swannies are in deep trouble.

  24. This idea of the slow drip was previously presented as the thousand cuts strategy. It didn’t work last year and won’t work this year. Remember the government holds the purse strings and can set the agenda. A very powerful position to be in. Does anyone really believe this government will be the first since the Great Depression to be a one term government? Hell, even Gough with all of his problems wasn’t a one term government.

  25. I think that there will be no significant change in Newspoll next week. This will send a shock wave through the national fiberals.

    Next week will be the end of Brenda’s honeymoon. 😉

  26. This will hurt News Ltd:

    I grew up following Rugby League, and in the early to mid 90’s it was the no.1 code in Australia (yes, that’s right AFL supporters)!

    So what happened? News Ltd got their grubby disgusting hands on it, that’s what happened! Four teams had to merge, one got kicked out of the competition, and another had to go through the courts to get reinstated.

    You will never HEAR OR READ ABOUT IT, but so much damage was done to the game here in Sydney that the majority of fans don’t really care who wins anymore.

    Now these same people want us to vote for Turnbull and Nelson at the next election, without regard of the consequences to the country?

    I’m glad the AFL are introducing new teams in West Sydney and Gold Coast. Rugby League and News Ltd can suffer.

  27. I’m a Sydneysider who supports both the Swans(great win today),and St George in the NRL – yep, I’m a red & white bloke!
    I bet Lateline tomorrow night has a larger audience than usual, because we’ll all be hanging out for the first info about Newspoll.
    I’m predicting Labor’s lead falls a little, down to 55-45.

  28. I’ve noticed a fair bit of discontent on the pollbludger site with the media.

    Just a few points to keep in mind:

    1. All’s fair in politics. Criticisms justified or seemingly unjustified are all an acceptable part of the game, and it often is a game. Politicians are well aware of this and are as guilty as the media in peddling gossip and smear.

    2. The media, even though they don’t believe it, don’t understand anywhere near as much as they think they do and have very little influence on anything.

    How many times have they claimed the “Rudd honeymoon” over, only to find bugger all change in polling numbers? If you ever needed any proof of how little influence they have on anything, just think back to the NSW state election. All three major newspapers, The Herald, The Telegraph, and the Australian, advocated voting out the Labor Govt. And this view wasn’t just hidden in some Op Ed piece, The Herald’s major headline on the morning of the election pleaded with the public not to re-elect the Iemma Govt.

    None of it mattered a cracker, as much of what they report doesn’t matter a cracker.

    3. (And this point will help give some insight into why point two is true) Whenever Roy Morgan’s ratings for most admired/trusted professions comes out, the journalists are always down the bottom alongside real estate agents, insurance salespeople and used car salespeople.

    So despite all their pontificating about all sorts of issues, the public has little regard for the profession and by definition, what those in the profession have to say.

  29. Insiders was cringeworthy today. Cassidy like a petulant child who hasnt gotten over Rudd’s snubb, and the others getting very excited about the so-called major shift the suuposedly occurred last week in federal politics. The most amazing thing, as mentioned above, is that there has not been one poll to justify all the hysteria. There’s going to be alot of disappointed commentators out there- even if there is a small decrease for Rudd (which they will trumpet) it wont be sustained

  30. For comic relief (and christ, don’t we all need some occassionally!), a hacker put this up on Bill Keelty’s Wiki entry:

    “The Americans should stop looking for Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan. I have particularly sensitive intelligence from aliens – he’s living in an outside dunny in Dubbo.

    “At this time he is training terrorist pixies and raising an airforce of stealth budgies to strike at the heart of the infidels, Allahu Akbar.”

    SMH

    …gotta say it, some people are just gems, even if they’re just anonymous hackers! LOL

  31. Andrew
    I do not watch “Insiders” anymore but I would imagine the glee today that would have replaced the “doom and gloom” of previous weeks.

    Aristotle raises a few points that help with the one’s perspective of the media. They certainly do not know a fraction of what they think they do.

  32. BB at 201 Grattan was the ONLY one as far as I can see that gave a calm response to the past week. When will the others even learn?? Arent they a tad embarrassed that their multiple previous predictions of Rudd’s demise have been shown to be ridiculous?? Maybe they hope we wont notice

    Now obviously Rudd’s going to have challenges and the 60/40 polls cant last forever, media scrutiny is necessary, and the media wants to badly to have a CONTEST to report. I get that, but to get so excited about 2 fuelwatch leaks is desparation personified

  33. Doug, Insiders is normally OK to watch, but the less conservative members of the panel did themselves no favours today. Now Bolt I expect to overreact, but the others could have said at least one- maybe this is not the big deal it’s been made out to be

  35. Doug, you would be in the vast majority of the nation that doesn’t watch “Insiders”. Cassidy himself has acknowledged that in the past. It doesn’t matter what they say really.

  36. I can’t wait until July when Bob Brown, Steve Feilding and Nick Xenophon all have more power than Brenda LOL

  37. Kirribilli Removals @ 230 –

    “I have particularly sensitive intelligence from aliens

    Nah, he got it wrong, KR. ASIO isn’t spelt A.L.I.E.N.S.!

    That should increase the size of my file by a foot or two 😉

  39. I did notice Bolt was much cheerier this morning on Insiders. They did go a little overboard with the ‘Rudd spending and wasting’ too much time on the Fuelwatch thingy, something so trivial (their words). Yet it was the media which kept up the attack on Rudd, by Thursday even the opposition could not dent the resolve of the PM and the Government. What was he supposed to do not answer any questions? He was hounded all week. Lest we forget, Rudd never ever promised, to lower the fuel price nor the cost of food. He and the Labor Party always said said they will do something to bring fairness and visibility to the cost of fuel and competition to the super markets.

  40. 238
    Andrew

    Not with a bang but a whimper.

    Big brassy show to go, and a quiet tiptoe home.

    Ooops, we just f#cked up your country, it was a mess, now it’s an even bigger mess, with a few hundred thousand killed, millions displaced, no services, little real security, mostly Balkanised, and the neighbours very toey, but hey, that Saddam will never be a threat to anyone eh?

    What’s that? You’d have him back instead of this anyday?

    Let’s strike up the band and get all patriotic, shall we? So we can drown out the misery.

  41. 237
    MayoFeral

    Look out Mayo, they’ll pack you orf for a rendered holiday in the lovely tropical resort they have on Cuba!

  43. judy barnes at 206

    If Marcus does get a canary I can think of a few good newspaper columns that would line the bottom of the cage nicely!

    On petrol pricing and that over-the-top giant headline in the Courier Mail last week (the one about KEVIN07 etc), I work in a Gold Coast news agency (not in a labor electorate) and it was interesting the number of comments we got from customers about the government’s ability to do anything much about the cost of petrol. I don’t think the electorate is a stupid as the Opposition seems to think we are.

  46. I note in today’s McDonald’s ‘Sunday Territorian’ that the Liberal party spruiker Murphy was also running a big Honeymoon over type headline. This guy gets to put a pretty full on anti-labor piece every week.

    I don’t bother with the paper or his pieces at all now since they don’t say anything you wouldn’t expect, and I am not much interested in Liberal party briefing papers.

    In fact they could simply have a little space saying .. Peter Murphy’s view on ..Blah blah…and nothing else. We would all automatically know what he would say so he doesn’t actually need to write anything.
    ————

    The book that I am reading that I mentioned last night has as its thesis that Howard’s only intention and desire as PM was to on raise his personal status and, almost all that he did was to this end, even if it meant doing harm to the country. It seems Howard was obsessed about his status so much so that Howard came before Australia.

    I remember Dr Hewson making a comment on the ABC that implied something like this as well.

    SO what was his Cabinet up to?

  47. Forgive me if this has been covered by someone before me – I have not read every post!

    I am interested in Newspoll this week but lets not panic. The 2010 election is a long way off and I am interested in letting Rudd and Co staying on track and running the Givernment! That is why I voted for him. Silly to say on a Pseph blog but the next 6-12 months of newspolls are just noise!

    The Coalition are not on their way back! They are a rabble and need to take a serious look at themselves policy wise. They are hoping their stabs in the dark will bring down the government.

    Love all your work – this site keeps me sane esp if I read too much MSM!

  48. Oldtimer @ 247:

    I think that most on here would agree but the MSM are going to scream loud,loud and louder still if Newspoll shows any shift to the coalition.

    It was interesting listening to the comments of people picking up the daily paper from a busy local newsagent today. Most extremely happy PM Rudd is working hard. A few ” not his fault on petrol…etc”

    For the oppostion, and especially Brendan Nelson Joe Hockey…etc to claim they are the champions of the poor embattled worker grates me no end.

    This is the same party that tried to get rid of penalty rates for overtime,trying to make people have to work longer hours for less pay and to strip award conditions away at the same time from the “real” workers.

    You have to be kidding. !

  49. Kina
    I don’t think you said who the author of your book is although you gave us the title. Can you please let us know?

    As for what the Howard Cabinet was doing when Howard was chasing all his self glory? I think they were mesmerised by him and just kept saying yes. The state of the Cabinet is verified by the fact that the Liberal Party is now without direction since they lost their Leader. These were men and women dominated by Howard for years. It was good strategy for Rudd to get him defeated in his own seat- now there is no genuine Opposition Leader.

    I am one of those who believe that the last election was very important to Australia. I felt we were going in the direction of a dictatorship. I am sure there were plans for a permanent Liberal majority.

    Joh in Qld held power for years by making the electoral boundaries suit him. By the way he too had a Cabinet of yes-men which disintegrated after he was deposed as Premier(by his own party).

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