Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  4. Ron

    These triangulated polls are largely meaningless until it’s a two horse contest. Mano a mano, as it should be.

  6. Pancho & Al @ 1852 –
    The last point from the Poblano article is a cracker. It is about the self-evident fact that the campaign has yet to begin and the polls are going to change considerably head-to-head when the Dems have a nominee. This allows Obama’s campaign to argue this way:

    Put more crudely, the argument might take the following form: if Clinton had relinquished a 20-point lead against Obama, who’s to say she’d hold a two-point advantage against McCain?

    What a lovely stiletto between the Hilllarian ribs!

  11. For those interested in making money on the talking horses: on the back of a single poll (in a state where there have been not many polls) in Sth Dakota with a shock 60 HRC: 34 O result, there has been chaos on intrade, with HRC being traded up from a 10% to a 60% win percentage in fairly short order.

    If you look at a map of who’s won where (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jun02.html), a HRC win in SD would be a huge geographical anomaly.

    Cooler heads at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com are making the call that Obama wins the state by 5%. But certainly someone’s going to wind up with egg on their face.

  12. I think there may be some merit in appointing her as a Supreme Court Justice. Her stance on women’s rights and Roe v Wade is really unquestionable.

  13. The biggest objection to her being involved (other than the fact that her attacks on Obama could just be recycled by the RNC) is that Rudolph the red-faced idiot and his mates would be like a bad lingering smell. He’s still trying to lampoon Hillary and take the spotlight even now: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/bill-clinton-purdhum-a-sl_b_104771.html. And that’s just one of several in the last day.

    But the lie of the land being so pro-Democrat, I guess Obama’s main consideration would be whether he would get more out of having her on the ticket (in terms of the ‘women of a certain age’ and ‘bitter’ vote) than he would lose (because she undercuts his appeal Independents and Republicans).

    There is a good piece here on how she can make her case through June, if he really wants VP: http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/06/what_happens_next.html

  16. Surprisingly, I didn’t hear it first raised at DKos, and my initial thoughts were that surely there’d be someone more qualified. It would be a strong political compromise and would be a good sticking point against McCain’s Roe v Wade opposition and extend an olive branch to many of the Clinton-supporting feminists. Not completely sold on the idea yet though.

  17. The Dems would need at least 60 Senate seats to get something like that moving, and as 60 remains the outside bet at this stage, Obama couldn’t offer her a seat on the court as part of any deal at this stage you’d think.

  18. It’s a bit hard to preach ‘new politics’ when you’ve got the living, breathing personification of ‘old politics’ following you around the Whitehouse!
    To have Hillary as VP would wreck Obama’s credibility and would, even more importantly, be unworkable.
    Would it gain him votes? Perhaps – but it would also cost him some.
    Would it make for a better administration? Not a chance.

  19. The ONLY good thing aboyt having Hillary as running-mate is that she wouldn’t run for POTUS in 2012 again if we lose. Probably. I’m still concerned about the assassination risk if she’s VP. She couldn’t help herself.

  20. Al @ 1862 – [and my initial thoughts were that surely there’d be someone more qualified.]
    Your first thought was right Al. I understand the imperative to find something for Hillary, but there would be thousands and thousands of better qualified, more stable, and genuinely liberal lawyers in the US who would do an immeasurably better job as a Supreme Court Justice than she would. HIllary already has a job anyway, representing the good people of New York.

  21. WTF is this crap about Hillary for the Supreme Court?

    Supreme Court appointees are more stringently vetted than President’s regarding ethics and morals. Hillary doesn’t get close. I think they usually appoint someone who has practiced as a lawyer, perhaps even been a judge. Having been a President’s wife doesn’t cut the mustard. Having appeared as a defendant frequently in court and needing a fleet of lawyers to keep you out of jail does not constitute legal experience.

  22. Good points Panch and jv, but he does need to find her a spot in his administration, and I don’t think VP would be the best fit. I’m not sure where at the moment, just musing aloud.

  24. Dio, such schmuckery was recently attempted by The Decider with Harriet Miers, who had been a lawyer for a couple of decades then Bush’s counsel since the mid 90s. The main howls of protest came not from those pointing out that she was a Bush crony with no experience as a judge, but from Republicans who thought she was not strong enough on abortion for them. So there is a failed recent precedent for such movement, but it doesn’t seem the sort of thing an Obama administration would get mixed up in to me.

  25. A flummoxed Dio at 1850: “WTF is this crap about Hillary for the Supreme Court? ”

    Wasn’t long ago The Imbecile tried to situate his former conveyancer from Texas, Harriet “Gusher” Miers on the cushy pews of SCOTUS.
    Having a brain is not a prerequisite for the job.

  27. Al 1873

    What about in the last twenty years?

    And Harriet Miers had at least been a practising lawyer for 35 years when the Idiot tried to install her, rather than 35 years as a defendant. Have you people no respect for the office of Supreme Court Justice? Where is Ferny when I need him?

  30. Dio,

    I have almost no respect for any position requiring political appointment in the US, Supreme Court notwithstanding.

  31. What’s this guff about Hillary and the Supreme Court??? Haven’t we had enough of lackies being given the judicial wig (if they had them in that uncivilised court system over there!)?? Well the public has had enough of this kind of nonsense – which is wy the want The Kid to put an end to it!

    It’s RUBBISH! It wouldn’t get passed the selection process for a start – and Obama’s credibility would be flushed down the S bend to join the US economy, its international standing, its credibility on the environment, and it’s credibility on everything else, in the Bush/Cheney/Rove memorial sewer.

  32. Thank you Ferny!

    There is a problem with Hillary in Health as well. Her performance as First Lady with health reform was an abysmal failure and the Repugs will use that to crush Obama’s credibility. What is she actually good at?

  33. Well Diog….I’d thought that maybe AG would suit her, but I think it could be too junior – and besides, I think Edwards is earmarked for that post.

    Secretary of State??

  34. 1852
    Al

    Sorry? You’re asking Ron to read?

    Read something and understand it?

    Fat chance, judging from the look of what he types in here! I can’t say I ‘read’ it, as I don’t, I just let my eyes scan down looking for any kind of punctuation or properly constructed phrases, and then howl laughing at the sheer lunacy of it. Why would anyone bother making that many keystrokes without the most basic understanding of how the language is actually constructed?

    Still, it’s funny, if you don’t wonder to hard about why it’s there.

  35. What is she actually good at?

    I don’t see a problem with using Hillary as the Health flag lady – i.e. the public front to the healthcare reform process. This can keep her in the public spotlight while sensible people work on the actual policy behind the scenes.

  36. 1855
    Progressive

    Quick, someone tell Gruffy that Hillary’s going on to the convention to convince the party she’s the real deal! LOL

  37. hahahaha.

    “”Suppose she demands it?” Michigan Rep. John Conyers, a superdelegate and Obama supporter, told BlackAmericaWeb.com. “They’ll [Obama camp] have to go back to the conference room and talk about it.”

    Conyers said he thinks Clinton and Obama could put together a winning ticket in November against Republican Sen. John McCain, but he offered a caveat.

    “I would like to see Hillary Clinton as a vice presidential candidate,” Conyers said. “I just don’t want to see her married to Bill if it happens.”
    http://www.blackamericaweb.com/site.aspx/bawnews/movingamerica08/clintonasvp603

  38. 1875
    Enemy Combatant

    Brains? Not required, look at George, and look at the little turd they put in as AG, that gormless excuse for a human being Gonzalez!

    Christ, you could not find a more pathetic excuse for a muppet as him, and even when he was cornered like a rat, he could only sit there with a pained grin and say he could not remember.

    Odious little toad.

  40. 1883 Ferny

    She has shown terrible judgement in foreign affairs. Her violently pro-Israel stance won’t help in the Middle East. There is her support for the Iraq and Iran Wars too. And you need to be diplomatic and flexible in that job.

    And there are much better people for SoS. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Sam Nunn etc

    She’s always crapping on about children, despite being the wife of the POTUS who threw more children into poverty than ever before by castrating Social Security. Is there a portfolio there?

  42. Hillary won’t be allowed anywhere near any foreign policy portfolio.

    They will find something for, probably health, maybe something else.

    But basically she will cop the money to pay off her debts, spruik the gospel of Obama up until Nov and then go back to work in the trough of Washington and her DLC remnants….carping and manouvering to leverage back power from Obama/Dean.

    She is yesterdays news now…especially now that Bill’s power has been usurped.

  45. To anyone who understands the US model of government better than I do (which is probably most of you) – is there a strategic benefit in keeping Hillary as Senator of NY but with some special connections with the executive? I.e. could Obama help make Clinton a great Senator?

  46. Ferny G 1893 – The concession must be on. I like this post below the article:

    Ave atque vale.

    Exeunt omnes.

    2nd act curtain.

    3rd act opens on the eve of battle.

    Night fires burning.

    McCain on the heath.

    Obama in his tent.

    Seers wail.

  48. If she gets Health, the Republicans (unfairly in my mind) will attack her and by proxy, Obama, on Hillarycare. I think she may need some other prominent portfolio.

  49. Al

    I’m pretty certain that Obama made concessions on Health to get Edwards(and his wife) on board. Mrs Edwards supported Hillary because of the health plan.
    Edwards and Hillarys health plans are nearly identical.

    So i think privately Obama has already made the concession on what the health policy will be, so Hillary may as well have the job.

    The Repugs will no doubt bring up HillaryCare but the fact remains that her current health plan is a vote winner.

  50. Kirribilli Removals: GG, ESJ and Ron will be in a state of mourning this time tomorrow! Perhaps you and I should offer a counselling service?

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