Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  2. Catrina 1895

    The Senate is a very heirarchal place. Everything is done by seniority.

    Hillary is very low on the totem pole although inarguably a powerful presence. In order to position herself as a strong Commander in Chief she took up a position as the junior member on the Armed Services Committee. She could have sought more senior positions on other committees but this suited her ultimate goal at the time.

    This leaves her as a pretty low member of the Senate at the moment.

    Deals will be done, but senators who have fought tooth and nail for seniority will be loathe to be pushed aside.

    Time will tell.

  3. Obama supporter#1776
    “McCain getting standing ovations after bragging that he “proudly signed” the Kyl-Lieberman bill that all but gives the right to bomb Iran to the Commander in Chief…while denigrating Obama for voting against it.

    Belittling Obama for wanting to have negotiations instead of hard “action”

    RON #1777 : ‘was the Bill that important really as a foreign policy issue?’

    Silence. Obama supporters love a serious conversation & diverse debate. The answer to my question should have been yes , with reasons. I then would have replied such a historic Bill to approve bombing Iran means all Senators definitively would attend the Senate & vote. Obama did not vote. Obama like all Senators has about 20 staff telling him when votes occur etc although on a Bomb Iran Bill every Senator wouldn’t need anyone to remind them

    Obama was in Washington but not on any important business he says. Obama’s excuse for not turning come to vote was Harry Reid did not tell him the vote was to occur. I think either Obama is grossly forgetfull & his staff are incompetent or Obama did not vote for political expediency reasons & shows lack of conviction

  4. Maria Chappelle-Nadal has said she will be endorsing Obama [1] and John Spratt (SC) also [2]. Both are suggesting an endorsement Tuesday after the polls are closed. Finally, Debra Kozikowski is expected to endorse sometime tomorrow as well but I don’t know for who (but I suspect she’s leaning towards Obama).

    [1] http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/E486465EAF8BF9F38625745D0010F444?OpenDocument
    [2] http://www.thestate.com/nation/story/422889.html

  5. Harry,

    It’s definitely a vote winner amongst liberals and Democrats, but when the Republicans start tying it to increased taxes and highlighting her “failure” to produce a compromise health care policy in ’93 and ’94, it may hurt them among Independents and GOP-disillusioned conservatives who prefer small government.

  7. 1891
    Diogenes

    Crikey, I’d forgotten Ashcroft The Devout and his silly prudish injunctions.

    God, how does one become so deranged? Is it genetic? LOL

  10. 1900
    Progressive

    Ha! Counseling!

    I’ve only got a couple of words for the poor deluded things: suck it up!

  11. Al

    I don’t think Education will be enough for her. Don’t forget she is patholical megalomaniac.

    She craves power and achievement.

    President?…uh uh…Fail
    VP?…uh uh…Fail
    Finally achieving health reform?…should quench her thirst.

    but who knows?..

  12. 1905
    Al

    The entire ‘small government’ mantra shows as consistently polled majorities who profess that’s what they want, until of course they don’t! LOL

    Running the biggest military in the universe and an empire that encircles the globe, is hardly the fruit of ‘small government’, but the downside of borrowing your way through a couple of wars is that nothing else gets repaired or maintained.

    I suspect the tide will start to turn on this subject, just as it will on the idea that they can individually live on plastic and dollops of cash from their home equity. That game’s finished, and the time for prudence and living within one’s means will get reflected in a host of changed attitudes to their world.

    It won’t happen in one four year term, but over the next decade or so, I suspect the ruinous lunacy of Republican tax cuts and bloated militarism will be forced by the hard realities of their indebtedness to change, and very dramatically.

  13. Catrina 1802 Says:
    June 3rd, 2008 at 5:47 am
    Time for sleep – good night all.
    Hugs for EC and Harry.
    1. Hugs for EC and Harry.

    The proof. My flower pet in dawn clandistine meetings of the butterfly love in , complete with humming tweeting & swooning and that smiling face in ObamaboticBamboozaMania dazes ,

    a picture perhaps should be framed in cherub petal-d memoir barbarianism , although one partys presence abit naughty

  14. Dio,

    I just watched that Ashcroft clip, where a one time AG, just happens to confuse Obama with Ossama will standing in front of room of cameras and journos so it will get plenty of coverage.

    Truly, an unpleasant little ‘christian’ asswipe!

  15. Here’s my first take on Obama v McCain:

    States McCain cannot lose:
    Big Sky States (UT, ID, MT, WY, Alaska) – 18;
    AZ – 10;
    Prairie States (KS, ND, SD, NB) – 17;
    Highlands States (TN, KY, Arkansas, WV, OK) – 37;
    Gulf Coast States (TX, Alabama, LA, MS) – 58;
    South (GA, SC) – 23
    –> That’s 163 electoral college votes

    States Obama cannot lose:
    Pacific (CA, WA, OR, HW) – 77;
    IL – 21;
    East Coast (MA, MN, CT, RI, VT, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DL) – 92
    –> That’s 190 electoral college votes

    In decreasing order of likelihood in Obama’s favour from there (needing 79 more):
    • North Central States (WI – 10, MN – 10, IA – 7); [27]
    • Pensylvania – 21
    • Southwestern States (CO – 9, NM – 5, NV – 5); [19]
    • Rust Belt States (Ohio – 20, Michigan – 17, Indiana – 11); [48]
    • not favoured: New Hampshire – 4, Florida – 27; [31]
    • very long-shot territory: Missouri – 11, Nth Carolina – 15, Virginia – 13; [39]

    I would have to surmise that a Rust-belt and Nth-central focus is the best strategy, therefore a HRC/Strickland/Rendell pick for VP makes the best sense.

    But the exact same goes for McCain (I wouldn’t bother locking in FL with Christ if I were him) – maybe Portman, possibly Romney?

    Obama would have to make Mac defend FL and the southern “long shot” states vigorously… but I think a pick like Webb just to force that might be a bit risky

  16. I haven’t posted since the Aus election, though have been a keen follower of the site all thru the primaries.

    Have to say that the Ron v Kirribilli Removals insult-fest is really below the excellent benchmark set by this site.

    And, to ESJ, whilst have enjoyed your contributions in the past – have found your recent postings to be really beneath you. This makes no judgement on ideology, just style. Its enough to say “Obama – McCain is more of a toss up than HRC – McCain” (which you have)… the rest of the insults are sad…

    Where’s Glen? If hiding from all the vitriol, then that is a pity. However much one might disagree, he has a point of view and the discussion has been great. Am amazed at the US election generating far baser interaction on an Aus site than the Aussie one did…

  17. His Oiliness. Refined and distilled in Chicago.

    [Despite clever spin from Obama’s supporters about avoiding “guilt by association,” much more is involved than casual association with people like Jeremiah Wright and Father Pfleger.

    In addition to giving $20,000 of his own money to Jeremiah Wright, as a state senator Obama directed $225,000 of the Illinois taxpayers’ money for programs run by Father Pfleger. In the U.S. Senate, Obama earmarked $100,000 in federal tax money for Father Pfleger’s work. Giving someone more than 300 grand is not just some tenuous, coincidental association.

    Are Barack Obama’s views shown by what he says during an election year or by what he has been doing for decades before?

    The complete contrast between Obama’s election year image as a healer of divisions and his whole career of promoting far-left grievance politics, in association with America-haters like Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers, are brushed aside by his supporters who talk about getting back to “the real issues.”]

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/irrelevant_apologies.html

  18. 1917
    The Finnigans

    Quoting this complete nutter from some previous rants:

    Senator Obama has been at his best as an icon, able with his command of words to meet other people’s psychic needs, including a need to dispel white guilt by supporting his candidacy.

    But President of the United States, in a time of national danger, under a looming threat of nuclear terrorism? No.

    March 19, 2008

    There is no question that Barack Obama is a clever and glib fellow. There is also no question that some of the most foolish, dangerous and horrific things done around the world in the past hundred years have been done by clever and glib fellows.

    When someone is brutally murdered, the media often defuse our shock by focusing on praise of the victim, instead of focusing on what can be done to keep the murderer from ever doing this again. In the midst of all this emotional venting, it is galling to realize that chances are the murderer will eventually be put back on the street again.

    April 08, 2008

    …it’s clear he is a fear mongering apologist for every bit of rightwing ratbaggery of GWBush and his Neocon mates.

    Is that the kind of claptrap you think impresses anyone here?

    You are so foolish Finnster, really.

  19. KR – i should confer on Obama the exulted title of The Man from the Oily River. it goes well with your title of the Man from the Showy River.

  20. 1916
    Expat Follower

    “Have to say that the Ron v Kirribilli Removals insult-fest is really below the excellent benchmark set by this site.”

    Glad to oblige Expatty, anytime you need some “insult-festing”, you know where to come!

    I only hope it meets your esteemed benchmark! LOL

    (Any complaints about the poor quality of ‘insult-fest’, please don’t hesitate to inform us, as we are, afterall, here for your entertainment.)

  22. KR – of course it does. we all know that you are very good at describing yourself. What’s the other name i have for you as well, oh yes, Clangsy of the Overflowego.

  25. RealClearPolitics have 6 options on their popular vote sub menu , but selected only 2 on its home page showing (the first option with 49 Primarys/Caucus w/o MI and the the 3rd option with the same 49 Primarys/Caucus plus MI’s vote for Hillary

    These 2 options deliberately selected by RealClearPolitics are the only options that show ONLY elections where all votes were ACTUALLY counted, tallyied & scrutineered , and alocated by the voter to a candidate. Any one who argues for any of the other 4 options disrespects democracy and is a democratic greaseb.ll

    All of the remaining options include either the other 4 cauus (IA , ME, NV & WA) where there is no record whatsoever of even the actual total votes cast in any of them , and no record of the actual vote the voters directed to0 any candidate. Why ? , because it was not done , s o the figures are ‘estimates’ from hundreds of locations each in turn guestimated , and further none hundreds of the guestimates are written down. As for the MI uncommitted vote , no one can argue remembering it was January Obma got all the uncommitted votes and Edwards & “others” were in the field got zero.The suggestion to substitute WA primary (which does not ‘elect’ delegates) for WA caucus (which did) is pathetic , the popular vote is based from delegates ‘won’ from votes that can be verified

    The Rules committee on 31/5/08 accepted all votes cast at the FL & MI Primarys as cast. otherwise the committee would have split 50/50 delegates for either FL or MI as if no votes were accepted. That fact , the point MI was a legally constituted election & that Hillary’s MI votes are verifiable justifies RealClearPolitics 3rd option showing hllarys lead 303,785 (and not its first option without MI).I would have thought any sensible conversation would have only been around Obama’s share of of an audited known voter figure of 238,168 & n matter what theat figure is Hillary leads the popular vote count which she can justifiably argu as a plus at the convention

  26. Hint Ron: Hillary will not be ‘arguing’ anything at the convention. If she speaks at all it will be to endorse the candidate who won the nomination.

    Ron, come out of the jungle, the war’s been over for a VERY long time, and the world has changed, and so can you too.

  27. Expat at 1916, agree with you about things here apart from the bit about ESJ’s enjoyable contributions in the past- must have missed them.

    A good question why the vitriol has been worse than the Fed election- I think that Ron et al are acting as true spoilers/ trolls so that makes it worse. Makes Glen (who told us he was going O/S) seem reasonable or tolerable- whilst he made dumb posts about Howard winning, he didnt resort as much to namecalling- and never called me any names. Ron/Finns/GG/ESJ you have set a new low- I hope you are proud of yourselves

  28. KR, please dont tell me youre STILL reading Ron’s posts?? Scrolling right down past them is the greatest pleasure

  31. Oh no, i thought my parrot has flown away. It’s good to know that it still responses to his master voice.

  32. Pancho

    #1849

    Are you supporting Poblano’s election prediction prowess or not. Poblano’s prediction of Hillary with a 64.5% chance of winning POTUS vs McCain 35.% chance (with all his polls , weightings etc and 10,000 stimulations) is of no psephological value as an argument to SD’s at all notwithstanding the delegate numbers

  33. Just occasionally it’s worth remembering where we are, and what confronts us:

    Now in the midst of a population explosion, the human species has doubled to 5.5 billion during the past 50 years. It is scheduled to double again in the next 50 years. No other single species in evolutionary history has even remotely approached the sheer mass in protoplasm generated by humanity. Darwin’s dice have rolled badly for Earth. It was a misfortune for the living world in particular, many scientists believe, that a carnivorous primate and not some more benign form of animal made the breakthrough. Our species retains hereditary traits that add greatly to our destructive impact. We are tribal and aggressively territorial, intent on private space beyond minimal requirements and oriented by selfish sexual and reproductive drives. Cooperation beyond the family and tribal levels comes hard. Worse, our liking for meat causes us to use the sun’s energy at low efficiency. It is a general rule of ecology that (very roughly) only about lo percent of the sun’s energy captured by photosynthesis to produce plant tissue is converted into energy in the tissue of herbivores, the animals that eat the plants. Of that amount, 10 percent reaches the tissue of the carnivores feeding on the herbivores. Similarly, only 10 percent is transferred to carnivores that eat carnivores. And so on for another step or two. In a wetlands chain that runs from marsh grass to grasshopper to warbler to hawk, the energy captured during green production shrinks a thousandfold. In other words, it takes a great deal of grass to support a hawk. Human beings, like hawks, are top carnivores, at the end of the food chain whenever they eat meat, two or more links removed from the plants; if chicken, for example, two links, and if tuna, four links. Even with most societies confined today to a mostly vegetarian diet, humanity is gobbling up a large part of the rest of the living world. We appropriate between 20 and 40 percent of the sun’s energy that would otherwise be fixed into the tissue of natural vegetation, principally by our consumption of crops and timber, construction of buildings and roadways and the creation of wastelands. In the relentless search for more food, we have reduced animal life in lakes, rivers and now, increasingly, the open ocean. And everywhere we pollute the air and water, lower water tables and extinguish species.

    http://www.well.com/user/davidu/suicidal.html

    …the whole essay is VERY sobering to any sentient person.

  34. Good evening to anyone who is left.

    The Last Day. Thank god. I sincerely hope that Mrs Clinton is not the vice presidential nominee, simply because I will be so glad to see the back of her after this is over.

    Tonight, there will be a concession speech. There will be a victory speech. And then you can all unite against the right wing lunatic, and I will again revert to being in the minority (which, at the moment, is simply somebody who hasn’t made up their mind) on this blog. But it’s been a fun ride.

    William, surely it must be time for a new thread to signify the final 24 hours of the Democratic Primary?

  35. Well my friends – can you feel a cetain frisson in the air?

    Obama’s camp knew way back in Jan that they would not clinch it until the end. But they had a plan and stuck to it, steadfast and disciplined.

    And here we are. Obama has 30 odd supers ready to go and course of the Pelsoi train is already set.

    The rest of the supers are bunkered down, hoping like hell they don’t have to put their head above the parapet.

    Only one piece remains in play – will Clinton see what’s coming or will she fight on.

    My guess is she will put the pin, but I really don’t know.

  36. I feel really excited tonight- what a relief once tomorrow is over. My only hope now is that Hillary is not VP. If she had of behaved herself I might have thought otherwise (I initially thought a joint ticket would be great)

  37. So many memories…remember when she offered him VP? hahahaha.

    “No. 2 to No.1: be my No. 2

    Hillary and Bill Clinton are again teaming up on Barack Obama – this time saying the first-term US lawmaker, whom they have derided as inexperienced, would be a strong running mate on a Democratic presidential ticket headed by the former first lady.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/no-2-to-no-1-be-my-no-2/2008/03/10/1204998322910.html

    The audacity of hope indeed.

  38. AL

    #1852
    “Increasingly, while the Obama-McCain polls are measuring an actual election matchup, the Clinton-McCain polls are measuring a hypothetical one.”

    Al , The statement is not only false but a provable lie. The polls have been pro Hillary on electability for 3 months & most other sites I use had shown this fact. I wrote 3 weeks ago this guy also writes for the very pro Obama DailyKos and HIS guys simulations were a minority coincidently showing Hillary/Obama even and I thought his results were biased. Then 2 steps happened , one, all of a sudden a week ago , dramatically his results dramatically increased for Hillary (to most other sites showing Hillary significantly leading) Now two , he wants to copout on his own models results which is his “clever” cover for being out of kilter all alongHe prved my point as I thought he would

  39. Superdelegate Update

    Maria Chappelle-Nadal and Joyce Lalonde (MI) have endorsed Obama.

    DCW Countdown

    Obama: 2079, needs 38 to win
    Clinton: 1916.5, needs 200.5 to win

  40. And who could forget the gas tax holiday for shot ducks? Or the I-hate-NAFTA-what-the-hell-are-you-doing-in-Columbia-Mark-Penn moment? The embrace of Fox the most fair and balanced lady in the land? So much good stuff. Some good books are gonna come out of these primaries.

  45. Max,
    Yes I am ambivalent about the general – I’ll be taking my time to decide!
    Not ambivalent about BHO v HRC though, the Clintons are a blight* and it’s good to see them gone**.

    *I accept this assessment may be unduly harsh on Chelsea, and on Socks, the former First Cat.
    **Though even better, of course, to see GWB gone, come next January.

  47. Andrew – Obama needs 38 from here. There are 6 ‘Pelosis’. If we assume he’ll win 17 PDs in Montana and South Dakota, he’ll still need 15 more to come out to clinch.

  49. “Have to say that the Ron v Kirribilli Removals insult-fest is really below the excellent benchmark set by this site.”

    see k/r , you dragged the site down below ‘excellent’ despite my quality contributions trying to offset your nonsense

  50. 1940
    Pancho

    You’re not wrong there Pancho! (A remake of Aliens, for example? LOL)

    There is a frisson of excitement, (well, more than a frisson actually), to finally see this race end and the candidate who’s had the numbers sown up for some time now, get to take his place.

    And to finally shut up that infernal Ronsperanto Random Word generator! LOL

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