Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  1. Ron says

    “Increasingly, while the Obama-McCain polls are measuring an actual election matchup, the Clinton-McCain polls are measuring a hypothetical one”

    Couldn’t agree more ron.

    If you asked people if they would vote for Mickey Mouse a majority would say “yes” because they know its not a serious question.

    The Clinton-McCain / Obama-McCain polls are hopelessly compromised by petulent Clinton supporters and mischievous McCain supporters.

    Not to worry – the air will clear over the next few weeks and we will get a real view of the political landscape.

  2. 1949
    Ron

    Ron, you’ve printed more miles of crap than anyone on this site, but we’d do it all over again, just for the sublime enjoyment of this moment.

    cheers

  4. “Have to say that the Ron v Kirribilli Removals insult-fest is really below the excellent benchmark set by this site.”

    see k/r , you dragged the site down below ‘excellent’ despite my quality contributions trying to offset your nonsense

    Quoted for prosperity.

  7. You are dickhe.d WorktoRule , the quote for for fools like you by a biased modeller who proved my point. If you’d understood the stats & polls for 3 successive months you’d know as a fact Hillary has lead easily Obama vs McCain thats why for 3 months no one of you challenged me on the stats.

    And William’s site records prove my point

  9. ‘if Obi is nominated. i will do my tap dance routine

    Just a reminder that “baptism of fire” has not and will not hurt Hillary or Obama in this battle. It will be good for either of them comes November. Especially for Obama. So stop whinging about this and that. Mccain will be smashed in pieces comes Nov.’

    Pancho, big day the tenth…

  10. codge – the big boss sidled quietly away from that bet by posting something that I’m not really sure was either tapping nor a dance, then claimed he’d paid up but made sure he stated it wasn’t really a concession. Can you believe it? If we were in another age I would’ve called it unaustrayan.

  12. i dont know about tap dancing, but we should at least have a coordinated communal glass of champers when Obama hits the target number!!

  16. #1965, Codgy, i am actually rather puzzled by how quiet Michelle has been. Got a feeling that she is due for the underside of the bus.

  17. 1943
    Al Says:
    June 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
    “It’s not a lie Ron, it’s an opinion, just as yours are. He’s entitled to his, just as you are to yours”.

    Civil comments get civil answer, Al you are entitled to an opinion & thats your perogative. So I am. But what Pobalano did (which you as an Obama supporter obviously will not accept) is this: He ran a conflict of interest in a POTUS election, on one hand arguing for Obama in DailyKos (and elsewhere) but he did so very biasely, but concurrently he ran a public modelling election predictor with some fine stat goodies but as I said weeks go some questionable to me weightings.Then regularly ran 10,000 stimulations. His weightings & imputs are on “trust”. But his output few months results (showing Hillary/Obama vs McCain
    at about level) were totally inconsistent over the same perod with most sites I use (& other stats I use) that showed Hillary easily better than Obama vs McCain. Concurrent polling at e/v etc also showed the same Hillary advantage. This guy was in a signiciant minority , with a quetionable bias tag. so Icalled him ‘out (even though much of his other background site non modelling data is fine) Most non parisan peole would legitmately at the min. take his results with ‘caution’,. all of a sudden about a week ago HIS model results changed to big Hillary leads (but that only brought him months late INTO kilter with most others , there are political coincidences with that time as an aside) For him to now ‘disown his own models results is a cover , statistically his comments are false provablable by 3 months stats showing Hillary a clear leader but which what he claims is now only just hapening. disappointing what you would not concede is that I’d have taken his results seriously despite his over zealousness for Obama if they’d been within the lower ballpark of most other modellers & stats

  18. Bill Clinton hit out at the media and Barack Obama’s campaign for their attacks on his wife Hillary, as she faced up to the likely end of her bid for the Democratic White House nomination.

    In recorded comments posted on the Huffington Post website, Bill Clinton launched a tirade against journalist Todd Purdum for a Vanity Fair article criticising Mr Clinton for his role in his wife’s campaign as “slimy,” “dishonest”, “sleazy” and a “scumbag.”

    He added: “It’s part of the national media’s attempt to nail Hillary for Obama. It’s just the most biased press coverage in history. It’s another way of helping Obama.”

    From ABC

    Or, listen – yes listen – to the interview here

    And since this went to, President Clinton has issued a statement

    “President Clinton was understandably upset about an outrageously unfair article, but the language today was inappropriate and he wishes he had not used it.”

    I like Bill. But I mean, seriously.

  20. Popped off for a while, but came back.

    Sounds like KR, Finns and Ron need each other more than they care to admit. Knock yourselves out, guys… (heck maybe if I keep this up, they might agree on something!!)

    Would be interested in anyone’s comments on my #1915, though.

    Wonder if there odds on a Obama-Clinton vs McCain-Romney combo?

  22. After tomorrow, Ron, ESJ and their followers will reveal their true colours and start campaigning for the election of McCain as President. They were never sincere Democrats or Hillary Clinton supporters!

  23. The Finnigans #1966
    #1965, Codgy, i am actually rather puzzled by how quiet Michelle has been. Got a feeling that she is due for the underside of the bus”

    FINNS , is Obama an accurate bus driver , just thinking of how many VP’s might get run over before NO if he’ nominee.?

    Also as you’ve seen , some Obamabotic supporters are trying to “doctor down” Hillarys popular vote lead by trying to include 4 caucus’s where there is no records at all in the US anywhere even of how many voted , let alone which candidate got the votes & the numbers are all based in guestimatess
    (uncounted untallyied , unsrutineered of hundreds of unknown allegedy unbiased people …is this ‘Sir Joh-ism premium , with peanuts” , whats appropriate term you an Amigo decorated master in this field ?

  24. Not yet, C. Have been looking at fivethirtyeight.com, which is v interesting.

    And can I thank you for your delegate updates – its been really cool to have a one-stop info source like you have provided!

  26. Ron at 1973
    Most of us know that the popular vote is meaningless in this primary, just as spelling, grammar, and punctuation are meaningless to you. But with a bit of focus and a twelve-step program you could deal with each of them.

  27. #1970 – expat – you are a comedian, that’s good. i dont effing need KR, i just stood up to him because he tries to bully anyone who is sucking up to him. Like the 3 Amigos.

  28. Expat – your numbers seem good to me. However, I will be interested in what happens to the polling in a month or so, with the expected Obama bounce. Some states like Ohio and Michigan may move towards safe Dem territory, others like Florida, Virginia or North Carolina may tighten. Might make the VP question a bit clearer as well.

  29. KR, just for the record, as much as I wish you hadn’t bothered engaging Ron and his intellectual dog-poo – its not as though I think you are wrong… just think its a waste of Will’s bandwidth. Why ESJ, who was something of a right-leaning contributor worthy of reading back with the Aussie election, has decided to go bananas on you, in turn, surprises me.

    But some of the stuff here (eg alcohol, family insinuations) in the past is really offside. Calling each other names and generally having a go at each other’s logic (or lack thereof) is as far as it needs to go?

  30. Expat Follower, I thought your comments were fair enough at 1915, I have allowed myself to be distracted by one particular individual and regrettably did get into the gutter – I regret that.

    I have decided to ignore instead but it is trying at the moment, there is no reasoned analysis other than a bloodlust to see the Clintons go down. Will I shed a tear? Will it rock my world? No

    I just think blind barracking for barrack is silly. I do think a change from the Republicans is important its just that I sincerely believe the hopemaster cant and wont get the chance to deliver it. There is just nothing there and increasingly that is becoming known.

    I have heard the argument that he is just like Rudd, thats wrong in Australia Rudd never got under +30, BHO before the Presidential even begins is at about +12.

    I also dont believe the world as we know it will end if McCain wins – there will be a strongly Democrat congress and with McCain as President (and as someone who is actually noted for doing deals and with nothing to lose at 72) ironically you may actually get some useful and workable political compromises coming out of the States.

  32. Bill Clinton launched a tirade against journalist Todd Purdum for a Vanity Fair article criticising Mr Clinton for his role in his wife’s campaign as “slimy,” “dishonest”, “sleazy” and a “scumbag.”

    I agree with Bill Clinton. His comments certainly apply to DailyKos and the Huff woman and to some blogers here. In fact some of you could not possibly be ‘left’ people anyway as the bile & vnom personally & professionally you’ve heeped on her a fellow ‘left’ person , wife of a8 years ‘left’ POTUS is FAR WORSE than yous heeped on the ‘right’ rodent Howard. The site blogs are the proof.

    As for the vile against the great (in my opinion) Bill Clinton, these are the POTUS’s for the last 40 years: Nixon , Ford , Carter , Reagan , Bush snr , Bill , Bush jnr and some of you have the gall to denigrate him over a few seconds in SC or today vs his record !

  34. Hillary has gone to New York early rather than to Montana or to South Dakota for the voting – after a closed meeting with her confidants earlier today she slipped quietly into a personal development centre near Rochester, only a couple of hours ago. It seems someone got a camera in there somehow … :

  35. [there is no reasoned analysis other than a bloodlust to see the Clintons go down. Will I shed a tear? Will it rock my world? No] – hear, hear ESJ, nobody, i repeat, nobody, deserves the kind of hatred and denigration Hillary receives here from the Obamabots at PB. That is why i stood up for her.

  36. Expat 1970

    I think Obama and the Dems will win all the blue states on this map

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html

    plus Michigan is a certainty. That makes 293 EC votes.

    from there, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and maybe NC are winnable. He can even pick up 1 or 2 votes in Nebraska because they are the only state that divides it’s vote on districts. Obama is polling well in Omaha NE and a college town there. Florida and Indiana will probably go McCain.

    300+ votes is likely.

    On VP?….it’s a friggin lottery. But it won’t be Hillary.

    Rendell..No
    Strickland..Yes

  40. Pancho – I think you might be right. As much as there are possible combo’s, I find it hard to see Obama winning without PA and OH (and even that isn’t enough). He has to get his campaign on song – and we haven’t seen it develop. McCain is very vulnerable on multiple fronts (but one has to admit Obama is vulnerable too)… I guess a qn of what narrative sticks.

    ESJ, in terms of McCain winning and the world not ending – yeah, I think you are right. Parallels between Obama and Rudd are interesting (not in terms of polling, but substance) – I think worth the gamble. The worst they could be is probably a Blair. Disappointing, but still much better than now.

    Finns, for someone with no sense of humour I don’t know how you can identify a comedian?

    Have to pop out again, but will be back. However silly it may get, I still love the site and the (general) quality of contribution and wouldn’t miss it for the world!

  41. FINNS

    expat , he is an ex of something , expatronising grease , another Parrot , guess more of these cowardly grandstand Parrots will come out complete with the amateur state anaysis he’s copied which is garbage

  42. I do not hate Hillary, indeed I’ve got a lot of respect for her and her abilities!
    No, I don’t think Obama is the new Messiah, or the answer to the world’s problems!
    My criticism of Hillary is that she should have read the writing on the wall months ago. Prolonging a failed campaign has done damage to her future political legacy, and possibly impaired the Democratic Party’s chances of beating McCain in November.
    Obama had this thing won in February, and rehashing all the tired arguments about the popular vote totals ain’t gonna change that!

  43. Finn #1985. It ain’t “bloodlust” so much a sever ennui (at the endless race) mixed with nausea (at the Clinton’s frenzied dog-whistling). We’re an existentialist lot we Obamamots.

  44. “severe ennui”…sever ennui is the boredom suffered by a surgeon who’s performed too many amputations.

  45. comrade robertolich, since that we never learn from history, so what is the point of historian and teaching history. just asking.

  47. Harry, just saw your post before popping out… if there are any parallels between Australia and the US in terms of debate/feel/zeitgeist, then I think you will prove right. Was never convinced by the Howard reelection campaign, but thought it could work – and it turned out that he wasn’t close.

    Thinking the parallel might work here. The US is far more conservative than Australia (though the gap has narrowed in the last 10 yrs slightly), but if the zeitgeist holds then Obama should win easily provided he isn’t proven to be a total loony flake – which is far from the case so far (though am sure at least 2-3 here will disagree!). Though, he has work to do – no doubt.

  48. Robert

    “We’re an existentialist lot we Obamamots”.

    now now , just because your’e now a Medico who can lecture your patients on historic evnts before consultation gives you no rights to induct yourself as an Obamabot , that doctrinaire ceremony has gone to your head. An ‘Obamabot’ naming is a demotion priveledge granted by the 3 Amigos , so for the moment you’re an ObamaRealist supporter , a higherr grade but ive in hopes

  49. Finn #1995: peak for yourself! I’ve never invaded Russia, and I’m at pains to tell all my students that they should avoid doing so.

  50. Kirri, am feeling I am too harsh on you! The temptation to stick it to Ron is there in spades, but he’s either a nutjob or deliberately fuelling the fire to get his rocks off. Maybe both.

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