Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

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  1. Jen,

    I think its a fair question, If Kirri abuses everyone he disagrees with its only fair to ask if he has the same problem with his kids.

  2. 2132

    Searing outrage in that post, and fair enough, as Clinton has dragged it into a cesspit of her own making.

    There really is a lot of creepiness about her, and I think America has dodged a bullet.

    I only hope Obama does too.

  3. Eddy, you disgust me in every possible way, and I suspect quite a few others around here, but I’ll let them speak for themselves.

    I’ve dished it back you because you are, at heart, a pissy little passive aggresive who slides in here and then attacks people with innuendo and snide ugly little comments.

    A long time ago I called you a ‘serial abuser’. And you hated being caught out for what you are. You’ve proven it to everyone, what else needs to be said?

    Sad, ugly, deformed little creature.

    You and Hillary are a nice match too, come to think of it.

    Bye, don’t bother replying. You are beyond the pail, utterly beyond it.

  4. Is this place full of old people?
    If you want to chat there is a tool for that – its called IRC.
    Just post a forum address.

  5. Hopefully June 3 marks the end of Hillary’s campaign for the 2008 Democratic nomination! She’s blown it, the RFK stuff is the icing on her cake of woe!

  6. Kirri it was just a question old son! Why the overreaction?
    You seem to delight in dishing it out but get oh so angry at a question! You need to toughen up if you want to play bully boy of the sandpit old son!

  7. GG: with all due respect, it’s been over for Hillary since February! I’ve got admiration for the lady, she’s a fighter, but the reality is she won’t be the nominee. Would I object if she was Obama’s running mate? No.

  8. You wouldn’t be beholden to the kindness of strangers for donations.

    Only if you’re not averse to ‘going commercial’ that is.”


    I’ve looked at going commercial – done the sums, proper market research for advertising forms including a quote on a media buy for a bag of companies that my readership demographic matched for ad placement (not google and adsense – it’s rubbish for the pseph reader demographic) and it’s not worth my opportunity cost as an individual blogger considering the hours I’d have to work, 2 employees I’d need if I was to do it properly and the loss of nearly all of my leisure time (and let it be said, I’m a possum that enjoys lazing around on the odd branch probably a bit more than I should, so that’s really important to me).

    I dont accept donations either because I have no hosting costs being on a free traffic blog – and taking donations doesnt gell with me because of that.

    For me to go heavy into the US market would require me ramping up as I did during the election campaign – and that’s extremely time consuming – not really the writing part, but all the hunting down info, talking to the right people, keeping a keen eye on the comments to avoid litigation..all the usual life eaters… plus finding time to think.

    I’ll just continue on with the current format – updates a couple of times a week, heavy moderation of comments and the generally lazy approach and try to stay low key to a very specific audience like I did during the 07 election (although that didnt work out so well).

    That’s not to say that I’ll be keeping the blog forever in it’s current format, or even using Pollytics as my primary distrubition mechanism (things are afoot on a large spectrum of possibilities in that regard, the Pollytics site will probably be just an archive of my stuff by this time next year at the latest) – but going into the US market full on as an individual blogger (and doing it properly) would be… well, I’d rather chew off my own arm! :mrgreen:

    Oh – Holy Sheet Batman, a Meebo Shoutbox!

  9. Ooops – bad cut and paste.

    The first lines of the post should have read:

    KR on the old musty thread said:

    “Possum, if you are going to bother compiling all the numbers, maybe you could set up a good site with some google ads for revenue.

    Once the US market discovers you actually know what you are doing, you’d get plenty of traffic.

    You wouldn’t be beholden to the kindness of strangers for donations.

    Only if you’re not averse to ‘going commercial’ that is.”

  10. Progressive,

    With deepest and sincerest best wishes, you must understand my totally consistent position that the contest continues unabated. Otherwise, Hillary would have conceded. So, whenever, I see these facile cliches repeated it makes me laugh.

    Also, if as you believe, the contest is over, why the need for such lazy turns of phrase.

  11. Diogenes
    A few days ago you metioned you were about to read Gourevitch (Stories from Rwanda) and I remember some time ago you were in discussion here regarding the culpability of the UN as a result of their inaction during the Rwandan genocide.

    I notice there is a documentary Shake Hands With the Devil based on the autobiography (of the same name) of Lt Gen Romeo Dallaire on ABC1 tonight. I havent seen the documentary but the book is an interesting account of the events at the time and is particularly scathing of the UN in general and Kofi Annan and Jacques-Roger Booh Booh in particular.

    Apologies for this being off topic ( although I am sure a Clinton was involved or more importantly, should have been ).

  12. 10
    Possum Comitatus

    yes, that’s why I put in the caveat about ‘commercial’. To do it properly would be a full time commitment plus some code hackers to do the drudgery, so I perfectly understand the reservations. (Even my part time html coding can drive me nuts, and that’s without having to do the research). And yes, you would need proper targeted advertising and all that entails.

    Maybe curled up in a nice hollow log is a better life!

    But hey, I think we get a great deal with your pearly drops of data crunching wisdom, so yeah, don’t go there! LOL

  13. Wow, it’s still going! ‘Much Ado About Clinton’s Flailing’, the play of 2007/8. Extended run (not by popular demand, it’s just that one player won’t leave the stage).

    Gary Younge pulls an aposite Orwell quote into his piece today:

    “”We are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue,” wrote George Orwell in his essay In Front of Your Nose. “And then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.”

    It is a quote probably better applied to Clintonistas rather than the Senator herself. Judging by her media performances of late she knows she has lost now, and is just gunning for the popular vote measure (according to that weird abbacus she has set up in the dark by the RNC tally room) in the offchance that Obama loses the General. In her mind, the presentation of these alchemical numbers to the base of the party in 2012 will have them forgiving her and overlooking Mark Warner for the nomination. Unfortunately for Team Aggreived, Hills will be back at no. 35 in the Senate, Bill will be making money sleazing it round the world, and a Democrat will have just celebrated 4 years in the Whitehouse by this time.

  14. Oh, one other thing Possum: you are hanging around with humans way too much.

    You don’t have any arms! LOL

  15. Possum

    just back after a few hours and note your comments#2123

    “Ron at 2112 – economic models of election behaviour have a poor to average hit rate, although the Fair model seems to work a little better. But they only predict a YES/NO”

    That is pat of my point. “economic election prediction “ models are used. Betting markets is just another info tool.

    First point You’re said the betting market had a perfect 100% e/v record , are you saying 6 months out from the POTUS elections (you quoted 1968 in one post) Intrade has a perfect record of picking the 12 most marginal states ?
    Second pont What you are not accepting is the betting mark odds reflect today based on actual money flows today , the pollster is predicting what will happen in 6 months in addvance by state. Secondly the betting market is rating % of winning by e/v state whereas the polls measure an predicted margin. The two are not the same.Thirdly polls can be theoretically modelled into a % chance of winning by e/v but the &% still relects a voters intent 6 months out noyt todays punters money laid
    Third point I would have more confidence in a modelled % chance of winning by E/V state with serious psephological info than a betting modelled one with “mug punters” , punters cashing in their prfits , punters panicing , punters laying off etc
    Forth point success stats you ar probably sitting on to try & slay me would be overall sucess rates , but its only a 2 horse race so most of the E/V ‘s everyone knows now so the % success rates can be inflated & marginals are 50/50 chance anyway How about giving me todays uncut odds on wi mi mn oh ia mo va co nc sc nm fl & nv. I’ll compare them against my analysis basis in 3/ come Nov
    5/ You like these computer models , graphs & charts that’s why you are a marsupial
    For barbarians thet represent cybers , & stat weighting. I have no issue with your betting , graphs , charts etc expertise used for you making predictions at all but I do take issue with the suggestioion the betting markets are the only source of accurately predicting e/v’s (with polls at best a minor input) They are a factor in consideration but don’t think the factor
    6/ Human psephological value judgement I believe has just as sound a base for predicting e/v’s They may involve as I said earlier (use of polls & successive polls & their analysis , trends , demographics in their entirety , historical precedents & other psephological factors , turnout rates & mobilisation options , policys , incubantcy , the forcast economic election month economic conditions then prevailing , election themes to make a decision by e/v.. some of this may be converts to assist a computer model but assist only , but not with the psephologic-centric viewpoint. For mine I’ll stick to point 6/ here

  16. Some rumors I’m hearing …

    The Clinton campaign is now spending money for charter buses to take Florida supporters to the by-laws meeting this Saturday.

    Has anyone hear anything equivalent?

  17. 22

    Leave him, not worth the keystrokes.

    My four year old very proudly informed me of his powers tonight: spiderwebs shoot from his fingers (he has NEVER seen Spiderman! How do they do that?), and he shoots grassy slime, and he can turn into a snake. (The last one I know is due to Harry Potter, they both love it). We all did a lovely ride along the river this afternoon now that the little guy can handle the trainer wheels. Some things are as near to perfection as they can be.

    Pity about the others, eh?

  18. Oh Kirri,

    Trying to play the wronged fella are we? LOL

    One only need look at your sad line of vitriol directed at multiple posters on this site to demonstrate that you have a problem.

    Maybe I should call DOCS ?

  19. And as for you Jen,

    I am happy to accept that you are a garden variety Green, but honestly if you want to defend the indefensible (Kirri) then you shouldnt be surprised if your reputation suffers by association.

  20. Ron at 19, just a few quick points to answer:

    Prediction markets dont have “perfect record”- they have a NEAR perfect record.

    The Iowa markets started in 1988 (not 68), Intrade started in 2000.

    Odds today in Intrade and Iowa are set by bid and ask price, not money volumes as happens with bookies. Intrade and Iowa are contract markets, not betting markets like betfair, portlandbet, centrebet etc. Contract markets work very very differently.

    Pollsters arent predicting what will happen at any time in the future at all – polls tell us “if an election were held today – who would you vote for”, they dont ask “When the election is held in 6 months from now, who will you vote for” – there is a big difference.

    Modeling polling margins as a “win probability” is an exercise for statisticians that are removed from political reality… a 57% TPP doesnt mean there’s a one in 10000 chance of the other side winning (which is what the stats say) because it’s a misrepresentation of what polls are, and what they are actually measuring.

    “Mug punter” bets are effectively anchored by “smart money”. If “mug punters” bid the price too far away from insiders perceptions of reality, those with better knowledge will and do buy or sell to make a killing.

    If you want the odds on those States, go to, click on politics on the left, then click on “US Election by State”. The price under “last” is the approximate odds of that event happening.

    Dont get me wrong – prediction markets arent the only source of info – there are many. They are just a better representation of what’s going on at any given point in time in US politics than US polls.

  21. Yes Jen, perhaps if you looked with a little more clarity a little “less scales on the eyes” you might see your good buddy (Kirri) a little more clearly.

    I admit to going in hard on poor old Kirri but after all no one has dished it out more harshly and consistently than Kirri – I’m just providing a little levelling to our precious petal. Actually the self-righteous comments from Kirri amuse me greatly given the vituperativeness directed at a poster with some perceptive comments like Ron he can hardly complain if he gets a little return of serve provided free of charge by moi.

    You might have more credibility too if you were prepared to apply a little more critical analysis!

  22. Eddy once stormed off this site in high dudgeon because someone inferred it would have been better if he’d been aborted.

    My goodness, you should have heard him squeal like a stuck pig, demanding that WB do this,and do that, because it was an outrage.

    Just look at him now.

  23. Harold

    “Diogenes ,A few days ago you metioned you were about to read Gourevitch (Stories from Rwanda) and I remember some time ago you were in discussion here regarding the culpability of the UN as a result of their inaction during the Rwandan genocide.”

    It was me Harold. i wanted to know what specifically were Obama ‘s policys to redress the horror of Ruwanda , Darfur & Burma….got no answer



    as you haven’t answered #1857 as amended , additional question , name the countrys that presently use Obama’s economic model

  24. Harold
    “Apologies for this being off topic ( although I am sure a CLINTON was involved or more importantly, should have been ).”

  25. Yes you see Jen #30 from Kirri is actually the truth, except that Kirri thought that was highly amusing and correct.

    I dont recall you expressing moral outrage then or now.

    So please dont lecture me or take a high handed tone with me.

  26. #
    Edward StJohn Says:
    May 26th, 2008 at 9:13 pm

    Yes how sad Kirri we have been reduced to your standards.

    hang on buster, show me where I’ve accused anyone of mistreating their kids, or is that just the way you always talk?

    It’s not ‘we’ who are reduced Eddy, it is you.

    Ugly little creature trying to blame me for your odiousness.

  27. I think Krugman doesn’t get it either:

    What about offering Mrs. Clinton the vice presidency? If I were Mr. Obama, I’d do it. Adding Mrs. Clinton to the ticket — or at least making the offer — might help heal the wounds of an ugly primary fight.

    Here’s the point: the nightmare Mr. Obama and his supporters should fear is that in an election year in which everything favors the Democrats, he will nonetheless manage to lose. He needs to do everything he can to make sure that doesn’t happen.


    …well at least he’s writing for a paper that endorsed her, so it’s fair to be her cheer squad I suppose.

  28. Kirri, I think Jen’s conspicuous silence demonstrates even those who were prepared to entertain your drivel are having second thoughts.

  29. Evening all….I’ve been plucking on my old Maton Coolibah (such a beautiful guitar) and singing Cohen’s ‘Hallelujah’ to the four walls, while simultaneously keeping an eye on the goings on in Bludgerdom. The music was relaxing – but the blogging – well – same ol’ same ol’. Nothing much new to report since Hillary self destructed after NC and Indiana really. Now we’re all just sitting around and getting cranky as we wait for the SDs to disconnect Hillary’s life support.

    Go on! Do it now SD’s!! Then I can put some heart in ‘Hallelujah’!

  30. 38
    Ferny Grover

    And then it will be time for the Sisters of Mercy (they are not forsaken or gone).

  31. Eddy, the only thing amusing was you p!ssing off, and it was truly the most high camp performance I’ve seen on a blog.

    Darling Eddy, did you do it in high heels too?

  32. Possum #28

    just a few quick points :
    “Dont get me wrong – prediction markets arent the only source of info – there are many. They are just a better representation of what’s going on at any given point in time in US politics than US polls.”

    I am not suggersting that. My #19 point 6/ lists the human evaluation judgement psephological methodology that I’m suggesting is just as sound as prediction markets. You presumably disagree with my point 6/ ?

    Aside only (think you misunderstood my lingo , The modelling I was referring to was the use of polling & other data for simulations not the poll margin. A Poll still relects a voters intent 6 months out based on an assumed election today but the odds are a factor of bids buys & sells today & prev.I said ‘the betting mark odds reflect today based on actual money flows today’ .Money is the buy & sell volumes still affect odds whether by contract bids buy or sell)

  33. Having a look at that Intrade state by state market, i think they are nearly all correct.

    The one i think they have wrong is Missouri. I think Obama will win there.

    Mon May 26:;_ylt=AvVRn25MuP8fdg_HZ.IFGZhL6ysC
    Mon May 26:;_ylt=AvZnkRZM4q3iM9rQffhO7O_X.sgF

    “Those wishing to pursue a conversational style of discussion (this ranges from those who…… to those who say “good night” to each other)”

    Shocking really, good respectable pseph folk takin’ the liberty of exchangin’ pleasantries.

  35. On the issue of Intrade having McCain’s probability of getting the nomination at only 95%, I assume part of the reason for this is that investors need some interest in return for having their money tied up till Sep/Oct/Nov?

  36. KR at 30

    Eddy once stormed off this site in high dudgeon because someone inferred it would have been better if he’d been aborted.

    Do you have an archive reference? This sounds interesting.

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