Montana and South Dakota minus one week

The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Montana and South Dakota minus one week”

Comments Page 2 of 45
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  1. It’s funny, but the “offending” post to poor Eddy is here:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/806?cp=8

    #776

    …and it got slapped as ‘childish’ by our dear moderator, and was hardly more than some silly talk.

    Eddy threw a right tantrum, if anyone’s bothered to read it, and THAT was really funny!

    Pure goose, our Eddy, always has been and always will be.

  3. Thanks Pancho, good article. I’d forgotten about Cale’s version – which was covered by everyone else including Buckley.

    Thanks to you too GG. Yep Buckley’s tragic version reflects its artist…and makes it a hard song to sing without getting choked up – which doesnt do much for my very average vocals.

    Great song.

  7. ‘think you misunderstood my lingo’ Ronron

    ‘dont lecture me or take a high handed tone’ ESJ

    Magic moments.

    Catrina, pyjamas & pekinese…hint

    Pedro, peripatetic psephy, 40 days & nights or so it seems, & still wise, welcome back to Electahillabillity: the last rites…

  8. Catrina @ 15

    asked

    “Which language?” (to pick up the Intrade quotes)

    Well at the risk of taking a turn off topic.

    Nothing fancy just VB and some regular expressions to parse the html page.

    But more importantly – how can I identify any mispricings? This is going to be an awefully long campaign and I need some punting on the side to keep engaged.

    A dabble on Jim Webb for VP is the only insight I’ve had so far.

    Possums earlier descriptions have me worried that its a rather informed and responsive market place.

  11. Dyno @ 48

    Good point. The betting markets (unlike futures market) require you to put the whole price down up front.

    Mind you with cash rates in the USA at around 2% – its not a bad return – not sure how you hedge out McSame dropping of the perch.

  12. WorkToRule at 58

    But more importantly – how can I identify any mispricings? This is going to be an awefully long campaign and I need some punting on the side to keep engaged.

    I wouldn’t be worried about identifying miss-pricing – take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection. Any miss-pricing should fall out of the equation with a reasonable algorithm.

  14. Catrina,

    “I wouldn’t be worried about identifying miss-pricing – take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection. Any miss-pricing should fall out of the equation with a reasonable algorithm.”

    Now that brings back memories.

    That’s how I used to pick up chicks at the Croxton Park Hotel.

  15. k/r
    #39

    You & others have such venom for a fellow Democrat Hillary that even when she does the wrong thing you still can not judge it in a balanced way.

    “Robert Kennedy Jr. released a statement saying it was clear Hillary Clinton was only talking about the political time frame. I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense”

    1/ The Kennedys are politically savvy & the statement was carefully prepared.
    The Kennedys could have chosen to say 2 of the 3 phrases only

    “I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, and it was clear Hillary Clinton was only talking about the political time frame”

    The Kennedys chose to add “but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense” They know Hillary is under media pressure why she is still campaigning in June. They know RFK (despite a campaign starting later) was factually still campaigning against Humphry in June 1968 , JUne the operative month , so they know her reference was solely to the June Primary timeframe only & said so.

    Had they thought otherwise , they wouldn’t have lied & said so unambiguously
    “but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense”

    Hillary as I earlier bloged used a poor analogy innocently but in doing so it was poor judgement. The Kennedys gracously didn’t say the same as me because it was obvious. You guy have taken it beyond what the Kennedys said. If the Kennedys thought as yous have said and implied the same as yous it would have forced Hillary to concede that day

  18. I can remember the NSW Libs at 1.90 and Labor at 1.80 in December 2006 and we all know how that turned out.

  21. catrina/codger

    Happy to freely admit Ron called me names and vice versa. Happy to also admit that I can change my views and opinions AND that Ron makes some good points – like what ideology exactly does Obama have – hope juice?

  25. Remember in the Australian fed e the difference between the overall odds and the seat odds?

    Interesting INtrade has something like Virginia as I think 55-45 to the R’s.

  27. Catrina,

    Nice shot.

    Are you about to fall out of your algorithm? How much forward trend can you deal with?

  28. ESJ @ 75,
    Most of the individual seat markets in our election were very shallow – not much money bet, and plenty of scope for pollies or their friends to manipulate the odds in order to make a (rather pathetic) point. There were a few markets with some depth (eg Bennelong) but not all that many.
    Not saying people did rig the markets for individual seats, but it’s at least possible.

  30. GG at 77

    How much forward trend can you deal with?

    It’s all about risk and reward – you know that feeling when everything is about to coalesce but at same time anything can happen – and your 142% alive. I like 142%. What about you – how far are you ready to go?

  32. #71 – esj, gore vidal called it the cliche juice, the kind like the recipe for quiche, eggs you scrambled together, with few crumbs of bacon, and then half-baked and then you sell them to the people in the street

  33. Codger 71 if you read the thread in its entirety I think the case is pretty clear. No need to say anymore.

  35. Codger
    #57

    you’ve missed the key area of dispute between me & Possum

    Possum #28 “Prediction markets dont have “perfect record”- they have a NEAR perfect record. The Iowa markets started in 1988 (not 68), Intrade started in 2000.”

    If Possum was right , do not read any polls or political articles about e/v states or look at sites that do 10,000 simulations of State’s % e/v winning chances , or ant politic date , just look at the daily Intrade. I do not agree either that their value is that good despite the ‘record’ and further I am saying at #43 that the basis of predicting elections is just as sound using the criteria I listed in #19 point 6/. And next time he is live I will make this additional point

  40. Ron say

    “I do not agree either that their value is that good”

    Ron, you are spot on
    You should extend the mortage (or take a new one)
    And bet on Clinton to become POTUS
    It will be a double victory – both moral and financial

  41. Ronron

    ‘Codger
    #57

    you’ve missed the key area of dispute’

    Electahillabillity?

    Don’t think so. But am open to ‘butterfly’ persuasion.

  42. Ronnie & Poss, i will leave the two of you to slug it out on poll vs intrade. but i simply find this amazing, it does not matter how you like to spin it. it has been like this for the last couple of months.

    May 26 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 319 McCain 202 Ties 17
    May 26 – Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24

  43. codger at 91

    Don’t think so. But am open to ‘butterfly’ persuasion.

    Where is that blindbutterfly when you need him?

  46. RCP has just updated it’s delegate count bumping Obama’s SD lead up from 32 to 35 and his overall delegate lead to 193

  47. #88, [Something from the current century – please!] – since you asked. the song and the singer fit you puuurfectly

  48. 90
    WorkToRule

    Yeah, you buy Clinton for 6 on intrade, wow, now there’s a fat profit if she came in! (She’s a bit ahead of Al Gore for President, but not by very much. Maybe Gore would be a better bet! LOL)

    A horse at 15 to 1 you’d call a roughy, so I think we could call Hillary that too!

  49. The Finns, I have some really bad news for you. Its the delegate numbers not electoralvote.com that counts. But you go on posting the numbers that suit you if it makes Hillary’s loss a little bit easier

  50. Not sure if it has been previously mentioned – but Guy Rundle in his daily report on Crikey had a lovely observation on the prospect of Hilary becoming VP.

    “Bill is apparently pushing for her to take it – which is the main reason why Obama would resist it. Can you imagine having Bill looking over your shoulder? Man that is so sitcom.”

    Hey – its a sitom we’d all watch though 🙂

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