Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
StewartJ @199,
There is however, opinion that the sudden surge in oil prices in recent months is a bubble that will burst.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/22/oil.bubble.economics
199 Stewart J
It still strikes me as a bit silly that the talk is still all about the pain and how someone else might relieve it for us. There are plenty of cities and even whole countries who have made conscious decisions about what the solutions are/might be, and yet we’re still worried about what the next tank of petrol might cost after a decade of unprecedented national income. How did that happen?
Australians addictions to cars, and big ones at that, really confuses me when I come back from overseas. It’s like we’re living in this little bubble that can’t look outward.
I guess the point is that when the furthest an opposition can see is a tax on alcopos, then I think we’re a long way from being ‘relaxed and comfortable’.
Just a point on your last sentence about how we should be planning. One of the main reasons for a lack of suvccessful planning process is the fact that future planning will change things, and that will be universally unpopular. Who has been supporting plannning change? None of us. In fact governments have been explicitly and implicitly been telling us there’s no need for change for some time now. Overcoming our culture of selfishness is going to be incredibly painful for some.
201
A bubble it may be, but is that any security against it bubbling again, and again, and again?
The oppostion failed to lay a glove on the government in Question Time today. And they copped quite a bit of stick themselves. Where to now?
204 BK – I was about to write the same thing myself. If that’s the best they can do the opposition have real problems. The government took them apart. The opposition lacked passion and conviction.
JOM would have to have been disappointed with that effort if he saw it.
205 Gary – Today’s session was probably as lame as they have had so far – and that’s saying something!
Really, they will get nowhere until they can pull together a coherent and consistent new brand that offers something for the medium to long term. And this begs the question of who can properly and convincingly represent this to the electorate.
204 Agreed. They looked like a pack of whingers. Bishops personal remarks look petty and weak; Nelsons mock outrage over 5cents; Hockey’s tantrums. It’s still the politics of extremes, and if your opponent didn’t say something extreme, you just exaggerate like an 8 year old and make what he said sound extreme anyway.
Sure – it’ll get people looking at you, but when they’re looking you’d better have something to say that makes them forget the original petulance.
It’s brainless stuff.
A good high school debating team could tear them apart at the moment.
It’s what comes from having no platform of your own to talk about.
Where to…?
The next newspoll.
Busy day today. Lots of people to visit and see about various projects. So I wanted to get off to a fresh start with the clean taste of toothpaste in my mouth and not regurgitated bile.
Which is why I didn’t read Glenn Milne’s column in The Australian until 4.30pm.
Is this guy back on the sauce again? Either that or it’s Glenn, and not the Phoenix Voyager who is sending those pikkies and data back from Mars or whatever planet he is currently on… (because it’s clearly not this one).
“Earth to Glenn Milne…. come in… Earth to Glenn Milne…”
“[crackle…hiss…sputter]”
First there was this, on Rudd and Labor in general:
And then this, on the candidate for Gippsland:
Beautiful Losers, indeed. Rudd, like Howard before him, is about to learn there’s nothing beautiful about losing.
“Worst week”? “His own inadequacy”? “Rudd’s failings”? “Impression nationally”? “Beautiful losers”?
Somehow or other Rudd is written up by the Tiny Poisoned One as being responsible for high petrol prices, sexploitation of young children and therefore his own political demise (which, forgive me for pointing this out) hasn’t shown up in any polls yet. … must be one of those “delayed effects” Glenn and Dennis keep on telling us about.
Meanwhile Nelson has seized the national agenda from Mr. 75%:
Just as you think it’s safe to go out in the dark again those “elites” (in this case, of the economic variety) come to scare the horses and cast aspersions on the common sense of practical Aussie voters who believe that it’s OK to ruin the budget bottom line in a futile gesture that will be swallowed whole by the oil companies in one month of price gouging and manipulation (i.e. “the market”) without so much as a burp to wash it down with. By the way, one of those elites would be Malcolm Turnbull, Shadow Treasurer and Leadership Hopeful, who reckons slicing a measly 5c of petrol is a stupid, silly idea and bad policy, too. But let’s not that get in the way of a good elite-bashing.
But of course, as Glenn would remind us: he doesn’t want to be Prime Minister. We’re not talking about policy. here We’re talking about The Politics. Completely different story. and this is where Glenn’s genius comes to the fore. The Little Man with the Big Question.
In The Politics Rudd is a perv-supporting loser who’s own inadequacy and failings are becoming a national embarrassment to everyone but himself. Nelson, on the other hand, although prepared to wreck the Budget with his excise scam that will never be put into effect, is some kind of political genius, and everyone would admit this if only it wasn’t for those pesky,pointy-headed elites who point out that enacting his 5c reduction in petrol excise would be inflationary, pointless and tantamount to fiscal self-mutilation on a grand scale.
Whadda they blardy know, Glenn? Eh? They’re just every financial, business, journalistic and economics expert (including the Shadow Treasurer) in the blardy country. Blardy elites. They should just pi$$ off and leave Rudd to wallow in his own ineptitude?
Blimey, Glenn: whatever spirituous or other liquid you’re into at the moment, give it up baby! It’s ruining what few brain cells you have left in that small, but perfectly-formed little head of yours. We want you around for the comedy of what you write, not to manufacture self-parodies like today’s effort and ruin it all. It’s all about verisimilitude, internal consistency, suspension of disbelief. If you write too many of these clangers we don’t think you’re funny any more.
We do the laughing. You do the writing. But not too silly, or else we think you’ve gone peculiar all of a sudden.
Got it, Glenn?
This morning on 3AW Alison Carabine (Canberra political journalist) stated that the opposition and Nelson had a spring in his step and that Rudd had presented them with a stick to hit the government over the head with. So much for the spring in the step and the stick. May the government be hit that hard from now on. It’d be like being hit with wet lettuce.
Alison on radio now says this because of the petrol price rises. “This could be the end of Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon.” Very negative against Rudd.
“The opposition is winning the political war on this.” What a bloody joke.
After a party loses office, many of its publicity people have to find new jobs in the mainstream media. They’re a ready-made propaganda unit for their old employers. In the Adelaide Advertiser, for example, not only do we find a weekly column by Alexander Downer’s former chief of staff, Chris Kenny, but there’s also one by Alexander himself. Compounding the situation, a lot of Labor sympathisers in the MSM have now moved to jobs with the new government. leaving the field open for the doomsayers and knockers. It happens both ways. Such is life.
How on earth are journalists canvassing the views on the Australian population from bloody Canberra?
This could be the end of civilisation too, but I doubt it, and I’m sure there’s equally as much evidence at this stage.
A journalist she is not.
I do hope Glenn Milne is reading Pollbludger, and esp Bushfire Bill at208. He needs some feedback but doesn’t seek it. I realised only today, courtesy of Crikey, that he (GM) does not open his Australian column up to comments.
Interesting that the previous federal government was one of the sponsors of the Gippsland Arts festival that has fueled Milne’s righteous indignation ( information courtesy of PM).
CL,
Andrew Landeryou was all over that this morning.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2008/05/gross-hypocrisy-nats-score-own-goal-in.html
‘elite economists’
do you think Milne was straining a bit there? Far out!
Neither channel 9 or 7 news services (Melbourne) had anything on federal politics tonight, that’s how much impact they thought the opposition had.
This has got to be about the base. Australia was not settled by Puritans and mainstream Australia is not easily socked (eg. They watched “Underbelly” by the millions).
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/alp-candidate-backed-offensive-show/2008/05/26/1211653901960.html
Phil, it’s been bad enough skipping my afternoon talkback program after Dolly and his missus infested the studios, but the worse insult is to have to skim past the issues section of the Advertiser {my favourite part} every monday morning because Dolly’s ego has him thinking we want to hear his fatuos meanderings,for heavens sake someone point the ‘man’ to the exit and push him through,a good many South Australians would be extremely grateful.
The Libs got crucified in QT today – what odds on a censure motion tomorrow?
Interesting poll. People tend to support Nelson’s petrol plan but not Nelson as leader.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23761023-5001028,00.html
Why not ask them if want their cake and to eat it too?
217 Ha
I thought Nelsons outrage moment was spectacular enough to make the news.
Mustn’t have filled the 7 seconds.
Milne –
You’d swear he wouldn’t have time with ‘teh insiders’ with his unbending attendance to a particularly strict church all day Sunday wouldn’t you?
Nah.
He’s just mixing someone else’s puritanical beliefs with his own navel gazing. Surprising that it’s only fluff he’s managing to find, isn’t it?
[the Landeryou insinuation could be the end of Milne’s career and public dignity if anyone could be bothered following it up; still these are tolerant times]
221
what’s wrong with “7”?
It’s a perfectly good number.
Will Mr Rudd come out and publically support the number seven?
The classic in that poll is the combined 49% support for:
a) Nelson or Costello or Allbull
b) none of the above or couldn’t give a rats
that’s right – b)
Yep, Nelson’s got Rudd on the ropes now…
clowns
Glenn Milne’s personal attributes and drivers are well known and those who’ve dealt with him will always – for the rest of their lives in most cases – hold strong views about his trustworthiness and accuracy.
But don’t you reckon that flaming the hell out of the commentariat is pretty weak because they are having a go at the Government (albeit one most of us like)?
Ain’t that their job comrades?
And isn’t he making some relevant points along the way?
225 emily
the problem is the content, not the job
I haven’t seen most of them make a relevant point for years, mostly because most of them want to make the news rather than report it an analyse it. It’s the chicken little problem. Earwax is important, and yet the reasons for going to war in Uraq weren’t. Alcopops are vital, and yet the bungling in the federal police isn’t.
I could go on.
Besides, if they can’t hold themselves to account, are we supposed to ignore it?
Fair point onimod, I don’t mean to say the fourth estate is beyond reproach. I’m just dropping in and no doubt reading a bit of preciousness in when I’ve missed the guts of the debate.
It’d be a bad run if the press wasn’t having a go, and there’s a bit to have a go at, while the Opposition bleeds out for the next three months.
214
Constant Lurker, I heard that too on PM. laughed, and thought, could Brendon (I’m a doctor) possibly find another foot to stick in his mouth, being a doctor, he might be able to find it. Not know what to do with it, other than what he traditionally does with it, but still, he knows it’s a foot.
225.
Emily, I think you’ll find that some people who post here take a very close look at not only what is reported but how it is reported, also, at how, for instance, so called ‘balance’ at the ABC, isn’t, when you look at, for example, the content of stories over a day. Today’s Online reporting was a good example. Have a look at it and tell me there isn’t something strange going on.
The petrol watch scheme is a fantastic concept. It WILL WORK in lowering prices because, for the first time, motorists will be able to compare the price of petrol offered by providers in a practicle way.
The opposition squirm eveytime they hear about it. I think it was Wilson Tuckey who called out in parliament today that it was their idea and labor copied it.
Can you believe it! LOL, one second they oppose it and the next they say labor copied it.
Turnbull, Abbott, Hockey, Downer and Cossie had better be careful! If the MSM keep giving Brenda so much oxygen, he might just lead the party to the next election.
Harry, I did enjoy the irony of Erica talking about media freedom in Parliament House. It’s almost Monty Pythenesque.
I also saw Albo bagging McGauran, numerous state government responses and attacks, and of course Brendan Nelson and the art show.
It would be wonderful if the MSM actually undertook non-partisan reporting and analysis of government actions and policy as well as those of the Opposition. It is something that is badly needed.
But of course as all know and admit – the Murdoch press is basically there to support right wing politics and politicians regardless of quality, the SMH cant make up its mind and The Age is usually a left wing paper.
There are a core group of journalists well known to all that are the hard line Howard and Liberal party lovers and undertake at every opportunity to sell down labor and help the LNP. It is not about fact or proper analysis, just supporting the side they support. The ABC since the thought police were appointed now also do their bit for the Liberal party when they can.
That is the result of 11 years of hard line Howardism.
Milne’s piece is nothing unusual. I suspect when he needs a story he puts his hands down his pants and pulls out a handful to smear across his sheets and calls it journalism. But we are all used to him but he is know where near as bad and redeemable as the Cane Toad.
If you want to hear some decent non-partisan political discussion and analysis watch News Hour on SBS or listen to the BBC. Unfortunately not Australian politics.
I was too busy today and missed all of QT! Was it worth listening too?
Emily, theres political commentators having a go and making a point {thats their job} and then theres so called commentators such as Akerman, Milne and Shanahan who have made it their lifes work to twist and weave anything about the Rudd government into a negative and to laud whatever the coalition does into a shining positive–no matter how illogical.
I dont think anyone in this blog has a problem with honest fair comment about the Rudd government be it good or bad, even some of the died in the wool bloggers here sometimes have a dig at Rudd, theres been some commentators who have earned complete respect for their balanced reporting but unfortunately they’re few and far between, the late Matt Price was one of these–we miss him dreadfully, unfortunately a lot of the current lot are still in la la land and hav’nt accepted that theres been a government change and are still mentally tied to Howards apron strings, this will change with time but untill then all we can do is keep pointing out their comments are complete crap in todays politics.
phew that was a mini novel from me, when is the next newspoll due please? I’ve lost count of the weeks.
Kina, it was a good QT for Labor, but of course the MSM don’t report it that way. I think Swan is developing into our best performer. Also the liberals hated listening to ( forgot his name, memory blank) the assistant treasurer on the fuel watch scheme.
I would like to see the Speaker silence the house everytime the opposition interjects or hurls abuse. They should be made to sit there, on their hands while listening to the government in silence. And if they explode into space, good, all the better!
7 news in Sydney actually had a feel good story about Kev opening up Kirribilli House to charities to use for fund raisers.
The last part said “A view that was only enjoyed by the elites (showing a clip of the Rodents) now used to help those in need”
Video here
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=248153&cl=7978333&ch=248154&src=y7news
211 The Opposition is winning the war on petrol prices…
I think the Libs have spooked Labor on Petrol Prices, although they have not been able to take many points it has made Labor say something stupid, that being looking at the GST on excise which may be about taking off the GST.
For once i agree with economists, doing such would be economically stupid, it is time the Rudd Government had some guts and stated the obvious, oil is running out and therefore we must start looking at alternatives such as Public Transport.
But of course the Labor party seems to have little talent in its ranks which can adequately explain the current oil crisis. Instead a three cent cut would be far better- yep a three cent cut and what difference would this make?
Would have better to attack Nelsons’ stupid policy instead of falling for it, thus Nelson has enticed them and they have fallen for it.
When is Four Corners going to provide us with some quality Australian journalism again- instead of nothing stories like tonight.
Hey Judy nice to have a fellow lurker! I am no fan of Milne but I think he’s in a different category to Ackerman. Although I might be biased, Piers once wrote a column arguing that I was an international socialist in (god forbid) the SMH. Matt Price would be doing his job right now, picking apart the Government, were he still with us, and annoying the hell out us if he were here, and we are all the poorer for his absence.
And Centre, that’s a great approach when your side is in power, I would (and did) hated that stance over the past decade. So I reckon it would be pretty lame of me to try and impose constraints on Parliamentary interjections when the side I like is in power.
I agree Rudd would have been better off ridiculing Nelson on the fuel excise debate for the pointless policy it would be. I mean, he has plenty of ammunition, even from Nelson’s side. Rudd could have made a few points out of this one.
Reviewing or removing the GST on the excise is only tokenism and wont make much difference to anyone except a decent drop in revenue.
Not to labour the point, but journalists used to be in some ways self policing. If they didn’t do it to themselves the driest of the dry – the cartoonists – would do it for them.
These days the only people left in Canberra long term are the supporters of either side, whose very existence is dependant on the drip feed from one side of the other, or the short termers who are looking for a newsreaders job somewhere (anywhere but Canberra).
In the past no self respecting journo would put themselves in the shadow of a party for fear of national ridicule. Unfortunately it’s become de rigueur. Journalists are their own worst enemy at the moment because they’re not calling each other out, and selling each other, and themselves, down the plughole.
At present Rudd is eschewing the former regime’s suckholes and they’re running around like petulant little children. What’s more, even if they were inclined to do real investigative journalism, they’ve forgotten how.
There is so much going on behind the scenes in Canberra right now, but we haven’t heard a word of it publically, except for the odd report of public servants being made to work ‘too hard’.
What are they working on?
Who cares.
It’s easier to turn up to a doorstop, cop the marketing in the face and shovel it out to the masses.
Even better if you’re a clown like Milne who gets the briefing direct from the partyroom – you don’t even have to turn up.
At some point these people have morphed from reporters to opiners who think they can drive the debate. I guess in some ways when you’re briefed ahead of time you can pretend you do drive the debate.
Of course if you were half intelligent you would realise the folly and petty worthlessness (other than financial – Rupert will always pay you for a right wing view) of a life spent doing these childish things, and therein, exactly, is the rub.
236 marky – there you are Marky I actually agree with you on this one. The government needs to stick to their guns. Of course they have not committed to anything yet. Nelson’s policy is also a dog.
In my experience, journos are pretty good self policers. And they come and go, talking of their grand salaries News Limited is paying about $40K for a Grade 2/3 at the moment as I understand it, hardly rich pickings.
Opinion pages are different to journo stories. The Gallery still attracts good journos. They lose them – I’m still lamenting Joe Kerr – but don’t disguise dislike of general critique for lack of objectivism.
I work on the other side these days and what annoys me most about journos is their mindless refusal to agree with my opinion and write the story I want them to write. It’s so irritating! I’ve gone to all this trouble, spent all this time, sucked up all this much – and still they want to find a counter view!
Imagine how the Great Leader feels! Yet I reckon he feels an attacking press is the right press for a good democracy. But then, I was always mindlessly idealistic.
And now the GST on fuel is now open for debate while the excise isn’t. That’s called “a story”. You might call it cowardice, expediency, delivering on promises, giving working families what they ask for in due season… but it’s a story.
Interesting that Kina and Gary agree with me, and that they always agree with one another. Are you both working for the same Labor media unit.
re 234,
aahhaa, It just came to me. Chris Bowen.
Emily, I would hate to think all those fat old lazy hacks were on huge salaries, there is so much more talent around, surely.
243 Emily – you haven’t been “sent” here to “put us straight” have you? I can name maybe 4 genuinely objective journos, Laurie Oakes, George Meglagenous(?), Gerard Henderson and Barrie Cassidy. These people give it to both sides and try to be factually correct.
p.s. I agree with you too Marky.
Centre the speaker is the talented Harry Jenkins. Another untalented dill that the factions have provided.
Gerard Henderson objective! Sorry this guy was John Howards’ speech writer and now he is Brendan Nelsons’. He is a IPA spokesperson and peddles out continuously their bulldust.
Marky, I reckon the liberals should recruit Latham for their leadership. He couldn’t do any worse. lol