Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
[Make a decision and stick by it.]
Exactly what the Libs should do on Wednesday decide to dump Nelson and stick to the decision.
Steve Rudd’s comment saved Nelson. The only people to benefit in a change of Leadership in the Coalition would be Labor.
Gary, #148 depends how much blood the Libs extol.
JOM,
The problem is that if the excise is changed in 12 months or whatever, the heat goes out of the issue and leaves the Libs with very little to say other than “We support the Government’s moves”. Not a vote changing message.
The real problem with petrol at the moment is that oil is $130 per barrel and that the cost of running a car has escalated so quickly. The adjustment to family budgets is the issue causing most of the pain. Again, if petrol returns to $80 then the heat also goes out of the issue. Most people can see this although the commentariat, as always, have their egg beaters in over drive. Those paid to be outraged are outraged. Some people may be spouting off, but whinging has always been a national sport and is not always reflective of how they will vote in 2-3 years.
Tax cuts come in to play July 1, so people will have a little more in their pockets to cope.
Steve, Nelson’s 5 cent cut in petrol excise has the PM on the back foot why would you get rid of Nelson now?
[Rudd’s comment saved Nelson.]
JoM nothing can save Nelson. Clear the decks and get serious. The problem for the Libs is that they are unable to make tough decisions and stick to it.
John, at 5c off all commodities people will laugh at how little that is. Besides who is to say when you take the 5c off petrol that that will not be eaten up very quickly. It is tokenism at best. Why do you think Costello and Howard rejected the idea. By the way they also rejected taking the tax off a tax in regard to petrol. Not only did they not act they didn’t even check it out.
This notion that a government just needs to act rather than review the options fascinates me. As Costello used to say we have a trillion dollar finally balanced economy and Nelson wants quick decisions that are half thought through. Of course if the government did act quickly and it went horribly wrong, guess what Nelson would be saying then? Does the term “policy on the run” sound familiar?
hmmm? what was that about honeymoon & over?
somebody had better tell these good folk!
“Mr Rudd’s arrival though sparked massive interest with many Traralgon shoppers stopping to chat and have their photographs taken with the PM during his walk through the CBD.
Mr Rudd did not rule out another visit to the electorate before the by-election. ”
http://latrobevalley.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/pms-endorsement/776792.aspx
Bugger – “finally” should be “finely”.
GG I agree with what you said about adjustment. You said, “whinging has always been a national sport and is not always reflective of how they will vote in 2-3 years” Rudd rode on the back of whinging all the way into office.
JoM, just declare Nelson’s honeymoon over and move on. Nothing wrong with politicians getting out while they are ahead is there?
“PM opens Kirribilli to charities”
I bet the Rodent is spewing.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/pm-opens-kirribilli-to-charities/2008/05/26/1211653887495.html
I think it’s Gold in the Howard world John – where people abrogated their responsibility to read a little deeper into the crap that politicians spout.
The electorate believed everything Pete and John said up until their sham relationship was exposed and trust was lost.
Somewhere in the last 3 years the electorate divorced their view from that of the former government and slowly started to understand what politicians were capable of influencing, what they weren’t, what they should be commenting on, and what they had no right to. it made them realise the ride they’d been taken on. There is now a slightly more than capable understanding of the effect of international factors on our domestic situation.
In short, Rudd does not treat the electorate for a bunch of fools and simpletons that the Murdoch press, former government and current opposition market themselves to.
Now, you can either throw your hat in to the ring with the above listed jokers, or you can sit on the sidelines [even join in if you’re so inclined] and wait for the next crop of intelligent conservative politicians to evolve.
Paring the world down to the Glen Milne view from the gutter, where stealing your older brother’s Hustler magazine when you were 10 means the apocalypse is coming is a PROVEN LOSING STRATEGY.
Yes, Rudds statement might have been spun in to a real negative in the pressure cooker atmosphere of the last two weeks of a campaign, but in the context of the first year of a new government it’s meaningless.
The mistake both the opposition and press are making is that the little things are only meaningful when they form the incisive indicator of the big picture; otherwise they are ignored.
The big picture is that one of the most popular new Prime Ministers, and his competent government have changed the direction the country is moving in, and the electorate likes it.
Sure – they liked the previous lot once, but times have changed. The past has gone.
GB, You are right it is tockenism at it best and tockenism feeds perception. If 5 cents is so insignificant then why are 4 cent shop a dockets so popular?
[why are 4 cent shop a dockets so popular?]
More importantly why are 4c shop a dockets so ineffective in creating positive perceptions against world oil price rises?
#162
Nice post onimod. Perceptive. And hopefully accurate in that the past has gone. Time will tell. I’m mildly optimistic.
John, there are people out there who use the dockets, Im not one of them, but they would be in the minority. The higher the price of petrol goes the more insignificant 5c a litre seems and in reality is. By the way John can you explain to me how Nelson would pay for the 2 billion dollar shortfall in the budget each year, the cost of giving everyone 5c off? This policy is a dog. Costello and Howard were right, not to mention Turnbull, Downer and Hunt.
Onimod, Rudd sold the perception that he can do something about rising prices etc and now he has turned around after simply six months and said there is not much more I can do. If prices keep going up he’ll know about it!
Wish I had thought of that Steve (164). Bloody good question.
GB there is a 22bn surplus… I’m sure Labors, so called razor gang will find the money.
HANG ON … tax Alcopops 🙂
No John, Rudd sold the idea he would have a go at doing something (unlike the then government) but emphasised “there is no silver bullet”. The press and opposition, for political purposes, are creating the perception you are talking about.
Steve I don’t know.
If memory serves me correctly didn’t Swan in his shopping with Swanny guide on youtube prior to the federal election last year advocate the use of shop-a-dockets as one way of keeping prices down?
So what services or programs do you want to see cut to pay for this EVERY year, good or bad economic times. I say that because once its in woe be tide the government that has to remove it.
JOM 169
Are you suggesting that the coalition will pass such tax measures in the Senate? Or are they still playing economic vandal while pretending to care about the nation?
171 JoM, I do think that the world oil price might have moved a little bit since then.
JoM, I also seem to remember that at the start of the Iraq war opponents were tipping the price of oil to go over the $100 per barrell mark and the Howard government assuring us that it wouldn’t.
BG no need to cut we have a surplus!
Socrates we’ll have to wait and see.
Steve just a bit 😉
BG no need to cut we have a surplus!
Socrates we’ll have to wait and see.
Steve just a bit 😉
JoM, glad you repeated the comment, it was much more interesting the second time around. So waste the surplus propping up and subsidising oil companies is now good economics is it JoM?
Lol the Iraq. I believe on Insiders yesterday Piers Ackerman showed a graph highlighting the Iraq war has played a minor role in the price of oil. Things must be going good in Iraq, The Age hasn’t bagged GWB aboutit for a while now.
Yes, it is sheer genius to take a whole oil producing country out of the world supply chain.
Steve, 178, What’s Rudds suggestion? Oh that’s right he’s thrown in the towel after 6 months.
Steve, 180, so Iraq isn’t selling any oil to the world?
Let me say it again John. 2 billion dollars out of the budget A YEAR to prop up a token gesture (you agreed it was) through good and bad economic times. You believe that is good financial mangement? Costello and howard disagreed with you. I can find the quotes of Howard saying why that was bad economics John if you like.
You continue with this distortion of Rudd’s comments John and then build a case aound the distortion.
[Steve, 180, so Iraq isn’t selling any oil to the world?]
It certainly isn’t anywhere near full production.
JoM
If you relying on Akerman (correct spelling) then your case is pretty desperate!
Thomarse, anything to save Nelson’s hide on Wednesday morning is the liberal game being played at the moment. They don’t want to face the truth that his time is up, honeymoon over and time to leave.
I’m sorry John but clinging on to this one comment of Rudd’s like it’s a lifeline smacks of desperation. As I said earlier, for most people it will pass about a kilometre of their head. The parliament watchers and political fanatics (probably the same beast) will get something out of it but that’s about all. Nelson will still be seen as inadequate and the Libs in turmoil and Rudd will still be seen a the necessary new broom.
Even dolly Downer can see Leadership sharks circling, why can’t JoM?
I guess we’ll just have to see how it plays out.
I’ve said my piece. 🙂
I’ll look for a new topic now..
So much so that Downer would rather join the feeding frenzy of the leadership pack than be a diplomat.
I saw the Q & A program on ABC last thursday night and when the Prime Minister said he had done all he could – HE WAS REFERRING TO THE BUDGET.
So there John of M – and all the journos know it!
The journos should all get together, lock themselves up in a room and bang each other senseless over their frustration that Rudd is on track to being the best PM Australia has had since the second world war. Yes.
Has there ever been a more stupid and idiotic populist policy than cutting the excise by 5 cents.
The oil companys would be laughing. How do you know if the price goes up that it is due to global oil prices or not.
The liberals are a mess. Labor under Latham were even far more competent.
191
Don’t get caught in the same prophesy world the Fibs and their supporters are in.
For most politicians, especially the Fibs, just reaching office is the goal – hence the lack of relevant policy development and implementation once they get there.
Good decisions take time to implement and even longer to evaluate.
The ‘quick fix’ mentality that’s developed over the last decade or two has shown itself to be not very reliable politically, or in the evaluation of the politics either.
As fred also pointed out at 165, I’m cynically optimistic, no more.
Rudd has just warned in Question time that whichever of the five prospective Liberal leaders is responsible for blocking budget measures will pay a huge price.
The first hint of a double dissolution hit on the Liberal Party possibly.
“The member for Wentworth is going so bad that even Alexander Downer wants his job ”
Goodonya Swanny.
Michelle Grattan, in today’s Age, talks about the destructive instability brewing between Turnbull and Nelson. The leaked email from Turnbull expressing his dissatisfaction with Brenda’s 5c gimmick has done ongoing damage to both players. She predicts more leaks to come from Liberal HQ, symptomatic of a declining discipline which set in before the election.
She contrasts their situation with that of Labor, who, she says, have been “tight as a drum” since a year before the election.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-leaks-that-make-a-politicians-life-a-misery/2008/05/22/1211182996702.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Nicola Roxon got under the skin of Joe Hockey and the rest of the Opposition over alcopops once again today. Julia Gillard gets all the plaudits as a parliamentary performer, but my favourite minister in QT is Roxon.
#106 Rx
Nitpick: that article is from the 23rd
Lindsay Tanner told the Opposition that they were “giving a rabble a bad name”.
GG@153
Think you’re spot on there re oil. Plus we are already a low-excise nation in terms of taxing fuel (the US is of course the lowest). As we head on up to the $200/barrel mark (although I think this is an exaggerated mark in the short-term) changes to excise will have a diminshing value to people. However, alternatives to the car will become more important, yet we are not making the provisions and expenditures there that will be required. I note from todays Daily Telegraph (http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23756325-5006009,00.html)
that there are charges that RailCorp is struggling with systemic incompetence (although any commuter could tell you that, and apparently today did, at a RailCorp press conference). Although Iemma is about announce another 150 buses are to be bought (for $112m), this isn’t going to alleviate the fact that many of Sydney’s roads are already at capacity. Substantial funding for all forms of public transport might help, but then all Australia city’s should be planning for this too.
Triton #197 Thank you, my mistake.