Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.

Other news:

• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.

• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.

• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.

• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.

• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

882 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. sigh, it cant get any better than this–it’s the longest honeymoon on record i think, the Rudder is doing ok.

  2. Gary says:
    Despite a rise in the ALP vote now 31.5% (up 5.5%) of electors say “Australia is heading in the wrong direction”, 53% (down 3%) of electors believe “Australia is heading in the right direction” and 15.5% (down 2.5%) are “undecided”

    Surely this is evidence enough of there being SFA correlation between his dumb question and the TPP.

    Maybe we can run an alternate poll asking whether people know what the ‘right direction’ question means, and fior those that answer that they do , ask them the following two questions:
    1. What do you think it means? (no options just their own words); and
    2. Do they vote in Sky News Polls?

    Affirmative answers to the second question are then removed from the sample.

  3. 852 judy
    Don’t be too sure just yet. This weekends polling will tell a story.
    I’d rate the misreporting this week as possibly one of the worst. Even during the campaign there was often a better sense of balance.
    I realise I have some bias, but even accounting for that, the reporting of parliamentary proceedings this week was just ridiculous.

    As far as I could see the government only committed Rudd and Bowen to the fray this week. Mar’n made a cameo, not of his choosing, but that’s about it.

  4. I noticed on 7.30 report last night that the word “witch hunt” was used to describe the search for the person leaking info to the reporters. This is slanting news one way.

    Cabinet Meeting workings are secret for very good reasons. What Company Board would allow meetings on controversial matters to be public? The fact that someone was willing to do this for policital purposes shows a flaw which for matters of National Security could be dangerous to the Public. If the person responsible did it once why not again for political purposes? Especially if that person underneath it all is a right wing fanatic.

    “The Law has been broken and it must be investigated” – so true!

    What of the media who encouraged that person to break the Law?

    Rudd has a view of the Public Service that it should be independant. This is Ok when you are dealing with normal people. But he has to clean out the top echelon first.

    A senior Public Servant is a priveleged position and involves trust no matter what the person’s political persuasion. The action of leaking priveleged is disloyaty of a very high order.

  5. Maybe the cleanout of the Public Service has started already…

    Given the Salary:
    1. The wages breakout has started, at least for policy officers in the Arts sector.
    2. I don’t Blame Rudd for wanting to freeze public service wages which clearly got out of hand under Howard; and
    3. The public service shouldn’t be complaining about working long hours if this is the sort of salary that they are being paid.

  6. On Honeymoon periods, didn’t Menzies have quite a long one? 😉

    As for public servants, I wish people wouldn’t make sweeking generalisations. The problem is with the ranks of the SES, not teh rank and file. I was in Canberra a few years ago and I found it a frustrating experience; some of my managers were very good, but the politicised actions of some executives gave everyone a bad name, when most people were just trying to do their jobs. In the case of these leaks too, if actual Cabinet budget briefing documents went missing, you can bet that it had to be one of a fairly small number of quite senior people. So by all means punish the guilty, but lets not have guilt by association.

  7. Gary Morgan is going more and more off the rails. Last time, he was spruiking a 10c excise cut, now he is salivating at the prospect of Rudd’s ratings going down. Given they are 61/39, they can only really go down anyway, but I’m sure he’ll make a meal out of even a small MOE drop

  8. Why has it taken a week after Morgan’s poll for him to release it? Newspoll do their’s on the weekend and publish Tuesday?
    Could the delay be because he didn’t want to ruin Coalitions 1st week back in parliment after budget reply? It would have put all the news of the week back on Nelson’s poor polling. Instead we have had all this frenzy over Fuelwatch trying to give the sad Libs a boost.


    Remember Antony Green’s election 07 calculator?
    It’s still up.
    So I thought I’d plug this latest poll result in to see what resulted.
    But it wouldn’t go all the way to 61% 2PP for the ALP so I had to be content with 57.3%

    Coalition ………. 42 seats.
    Ind. ………. 2 seats
    ALP ……….. the rest………well that’s 106 seats.

    Yep, honeymoon is over.

  10. Progressive 849

    I agree on AC Neilsen. I had to do some work on a (politically sensitive) project with them and found them very impartial. Even after several months working together I still couldn’t work out which way their analyst voted. A credit to their professionalism in retrospect.

  11. If the speculation by many commenters here on Poll Bludger is correct – that Morgan polls tend to favour Labor by a couple of percent and downsell the Nationals (ask Glen!) – then, being the conservative spruiker it’s fairly clear he is, why does he not correct his methodology, or whatever is amiss, to more accurately reflect the “true” situation?

  12. #864 Rx
    I remember a debate on TV between Sol Lebovic and Gary Morgan. Each swore that their method was best (i.e., telephone v. F2F). Lebovic thought that people are more likely to be honest down a phone line that face-to-face. I suspect he was right. But even Morgan’s phone polls seem to lean to Labor compared with the other polls.

  13. Onimod @855
    I’m not stupid enough to think Rudd’s stratophere ratings are everlasting, they have to get back to a more normal figure eventually–BUT this old dear is thoroughly revelling in them while they continue lol, i have my own reasons for loathing the libs albeit at state level thats carried on to federal level, they made the hell my family was going through a few years ago a thousand times worse, the only support we got was from the labor party when it came into power and our then Attorney general ended becoming a good friend, our present premier when they regained power after the state bank disaster has kept an important promise to us, i’m more than grateful to labor.

  14. The Liberal party journalism of the Opposition Orifice and other Murdoch papers has been blatant, there is no doubting it and, it seems they don’t care to be seen supporting the Liberal party as best they can. But the really sad thing about it is they are trying to help the fortunes of a totally incompetent party. It wouldn’t be so bad if the LNP were full of great talent and good policies, still very wrong but at least the effect would be less damaging to Australia.

    I don’t know if this poll means more than nothing much has changed.

    HOWEVER with Morgan comments like this:

    “This weekend’s Morgan Poll will measure the effect on voting preferences caused by the recent ALP disunity on how to deal with rising petrol prices.”

    Haven’t they just rendered the validity of their polling to be useless?

    This is clearly a political statement, phrased in a negative Labor context and, dressed up as a polling question. The comment itself is untrue.

    I thought pollsters were keen to protect their integrity so that people could have confidence in the validity of their polls?

    Well, Morgan has just given cause for people to not have total confidence in their polling which, tends to render them useless for any future use.

    If your ruler is buckled then it becomes useless for measuring with.

  15. Socrates 859
    Even though it may have sounded like it I was not advocating some grand purge of the Public Service. This would be really a self defeating action for a number of reasons. However what I did mean was those whose loyalty was suspect(in the sense of being independant) should be reassigned to other duties. And I was referring only to senior Public Servants who were in politically sensitive positions.

    The media calling the investigation a “witch hunt” is trivialising the issue to just an idea of political self interest. It is far more than that. The media have been playing bad games in the past week and I would be surprised if it did not have any influence on the less committed voters.

    I too believe in the sentiment that the guilty should be punished but not the innocent.

  16. #870 Kina
    It depends on whether they ask the same questions they always ask (i.e., Morgan is simply assuming that Labor disunity will influence the result) or they actually refer to disunity in the question. I agree that any mention of disunity will render the results useless. He does publish the questions asked.

  17. Poor Shameaham, last week his blog was “Rudd’s honeymoon lingers on”, now its all over. Poor guy doesnt know if he is coming or going

  18. vera at 861, Morgan always releases on a Friday, so there’s no conspiracy there. Mind you I think we are the only ones who notice anyway.

  19. and Kina at 870, as above, no one pays attention to Morgan’s polls anymore, so I dont think he has the problem of credibility to maintain

  20. 869 judy
    I hope I didn’t insinuate anything about your analytical skills. I guess I’m just saying I won’t be surprised if the biggest push I’ve seen has at least some effect.
    If it doesn’t it’ll be the best political lesson on the difference between content and delivery we’ve seen for a long time.
    Fingers crossed; I so hate style over substance.

  21. Some of the commentators think that divorce follows honeymoon. If they are not at stratospheric levels in the polls then the its end of the world for Labor.

    Maybe it reflects their own lives.

    I guess they are all frantic because some elections will becoming up soon…Costello, Downer, Gippsland. But surely they wont have to worry about any of them.

  22. Rudd is using the tried and true – We’ll probably cop a pasting in the polls approach. It’s worked for him in the past, it may work for him again.

  23. Onimod.
    pmsl, hey i was just pointing out i was revelling in the status quo while it lasts, it’ll come down eventually –bet gee aint it great right now? i do like Rudd and don’t expect him to be an perfect, eventually he’ll do things i wont agree with –that comes with being PM and running a country, i do think though he’s basically a decent person and tries to carry out his promises through the pollie speak, what a change from the rodent.
    an anyalist i’m not lol, though i dont miss a posting on poll bludger and i follow every bit of political news including parliament avidly, i dont often post because lets face it i left school in grade seven {as we did in my time}and i’m not very good at expressing myself in writing, i’m much more fluent in speaking, i’ve had to be with the years i had to spent talking on telly.
    i know it’s not good for keeping the government on the straight but i’m enjoying the opposition country wide being useless rabbles at least for now, though eventually that has to change.

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