Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.

Other news:

• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.

• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.

• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.

• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.

• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

882 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. “CALL me naive, but the Fuelgate leak — or suite of leaks — does not spell doom for the Government, despite some hyped commentary.” – Good start Michelle. I wonder who she has in mind.

  2. LTEP @ 596 The next time the Government can have a half-Senate election is July or August 2010, so unless they want to separate the House of Reps from the half-Senate election, which would be risky, it has to be a double dissolution at any time before then. So you can see how difficult Nelson’s position is: He knows it only takes the Opposition plus one other Senator to block something after July, and some of those other Senators might prefer a double dissolution when the time comes, so they could be eager to help. He also knows that once it’s done twice (there’s some time test thing too I think) he has given the Government an option it otherwise wouldn’t have. So he’ll be permanently stuck talking big and then, paralysed by fear, abstaining or voting with the Government. Not really a good look for a bloke who isn’t exactly Mr Decisive to begin with.

  3. What journalist in their right mind would predict doom for the government based on a few leaks re fuel watch? The Opposition has very little credible talent to start off with – so who they going to put up against the Labor side and not look stupid?

    Rudd and Labor have been soaring for many many months and whilst the polls will inevitable come back to normality bit by bit the public will still require a reason to change and, something more credible to change into.

    The LNP really is a rabble of no hopers at the moment with precious little to turn to.

    They actually might believe the delusional nonsense they are writing, I wouldn’t be surprised.

    I can remember they were so gleeful over Burke-gate. They thought they had sunk Rudd and singled handedly saved Howard. You could imagine them dancing around in their offices, self congratulating and cheering. It was party time at The Australian GG.

    But it was a total non story, no one was interested and, all of us knew that most people wouldn’t be interested in that issue. But the inbreds at the GG could not see it, could not understand it, so out of touch with reality and Australia they were. They continued to push the issue for ages continually perplexed by its total lack of bite.

    Every time they got something on Rudd they ran with it gleefully believing they had sunk him this time. The GG’s / Murdoch journalists simply had no idea about Australians and they still don’t.

    Now they are in total raptures over fuelwatch and a few leaks and as usually they see it gleefully as the end of the world for Rudd and Labor. These people should be embarrassed to call themselves journalists let alone political journalists so poor is their judgment and understanding of this country.

  4. I notice Hartcher’s disappointment of Howard’s loss lingers in his hatred of Rudd and continual attempts to belittle him. Poor old sod has to continually think of devices to undermine Rudd’s competent performance this past 6 months.

    Oh how the Howard lovers still suffer, stewing in their bile, looking for revenge.

  5. The good part about this is that it washes over the head of most people. It’s just a blip. They don’t read political journalists and they don’t watch political shows. Rudd has a lot of goodwill out there. He has handled this latest “storm” very well indeed. Unflustered, business as usual and even managed to paint Labor as on the side of the people and the Libs on the side of big oil.
    You can always tell if something is dire or not, it lingers for days. Just look around and see how many people are writing or talking about the Laurie Oakes “revelation” today. It’s over – gone. It was over yesterday in parliament.

  6. Inasmuch as people out there in TVland do follow politics, the take-home message they are likely to receive is: the government have put forward a plan to help (somewhat) with fuel prices, and the Liberals are trying to block it.

    I wonder if people will draw associations with the Liberals, who screwed them with WorstChoices, now trying to screw them again by blocking something which is being put up to help with fuel pricing.

    That, and their resistance to means-testing of the Baby Bonus and the tax on luxury cars, paints them unambiguously as caring only about the Top End of Town and dismissive of those doing it tough (which is not far from the reality as we know).

  7. Greeensborough Growler @ 801 – Thanks for the heads up, GG. I’m dumping my my shares in the company before the news hits the MSM and they become worthless 😉

  8. Before reading that article Charles I was going to write here that I the strength of opposition to Fuelwatch smacked of vested interests wanting to protect their turf. This article, by a respected financial journalist expresses just that.
    Rx I suspect you are right. The perception of the Libs protecting the rich at the expense of everyone else is not good. I think inspite of the journalists anti Rudd sentiment the people will continue to support him.

  9. I heard Rudd on the Sunrise TV program this morning (yes he does work long hours!) and he sounded really good! It was his best performance of the week by far IMO. He acknowledged it was a world wide problem (true) that there was no easy fix (true) and that they were looking at a long term plan, including funding for major public transport improvements (metros) in Sydney and Melbourne. Hurray! That is the only really sustainable long term answer. He came across as honest, across the issues, and looking for a solution. If they were to start committing some of the infrastructure fund to serious public transport projects it would be a huge step forward. I’d love to know if someone has a link to any transcripts of that show. He was on about 7.15am Adelaide time; 7.45 am eastern time.

    I haven’t held back in criticising Rudd previously in this thread when I felt the government was on the wrong path (I gave him 3/10 for the GST suggestion) but if they listen and move to a better solution, not just cave in to populism, then I will happily adjust my rating to 9/10 for this mornings effort (he gets 10 when it actually happens 🙂 Meanwhile Nelson’s idea is still stupid.

  10. Rudd just completed an interview with Neil Mitchell. It was like he was sparring with Nelson himself. Rudd sounded calm, confident and hit most of the balls for 6.
    A polished performance.
    In the news service that followed they spoke of disgruntled public servants attacking Rudd for the hours they worked. Who, out there in voterland, is going to feel sorry for the public servants? They were seen as bludgers by the very people 3AW cater for.

  11. At the end of the interview I even detected disappointment in Mitchell’s voice. He knew he failed to land a punch.

  12. Yes Socrates, the Liberals can hardly whine about FuelWatch being a bad scheme when their suggestion is even more stupid.

  13. I particularly like how Rudd is now linking the Libs with big oil companies. His use of Costello’s words re ACCC goes down a treat too. Mitchell tried to counteract that by saying how Rudd criticised Costello and thought Cossie did a bad job a treasurer but now wants to use his words. What Rudd should have said but didn’t (understandably) is that he was using Costello’s words because many of Mitchell’s audience think Costello was the greatest treasurer on earth.

  14. Mitchell always wants to portray Rudd as flustered and angry (temper up and swearing), He even asked Rudd at the end about his feelings on all that has happened and, of course gave him these options as to what his demeanour may have been at the time. The problem for Mitchell and any others that want to portray Rudd in this light (whether its accurate or not) is that Rudd doesn’t present that way and nor does he own up to being like that. People are mostly believe what they see and hear for themselves rather than what they are told.

  15. Tieing the Liberals in with the oil companies is a brilliant tactic, like their association with the private health insurance industry!
    Once again the hacks in the MSM have egg on their faces! I guess Shamaham and the Poisoned Dwarf still haven’t accepted the result of November 24 LOL

  16. The incredible thing about the commentator frenzy this week is that the likes of Shameaham and Milne have learnt absolutely nothing in the past 18 months. Overreacting, beating up on Rudd, predicting doom, all to no avail. Dont they care about their reputations?? They are a laughing stock.

  17. Trubbel at Mill… what exactly do you plan on doing with that petition? It cannot be lodged in either house of parliament.

  18. 813
    The problem Rudd has is that currently he has his hands tied by inflation – it has to start dropping before he starts expending big time in a bunch of areas.
    As I understand it a number of department have big ticket announcement they are feverishly working toward in the second half of the year. If inflation doesn’t start to drop they may be even further delays.
    For a number of reasons, you just can’t be making those sort of declarations, and so the government is just going to have to weather the storm in the mean time. I would imagine the leaking has revealed most of the forward planning to the opposition, and it’s pretty hard to keep this stuff quiet regardless – I mean I’ve heard the stories and I’m not in the public service and have no friends or relatives in it either.
    It may well be that they’ve programmed the petrol debate to consume ‘x’ amount of time. You’d imagine that the current sitting period would be committed to any issues arising from the budget and the passing of it’s 15 (?) bills, and to that end arguing about an issue like petrol that’s pretty well assured to be a political plus when implemented, (evidence from the WA model) is just an accepted event.
    Despite what the media has been reporting, my view is that Rudd has remained cool and confident and that Chris Bowen is anything but shaky.

  19. Onimod: I’m quite impressed with Chris Bowen, at least what I’ve seen of him in parliament. And Swan has definitely improved his parliamentary performance, he kicked the shit out of the Liberals yesterday.

  20. Crocodile tears for the status quo.

    “THE Brisbane-based company that supplied fuel price figures to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has criticised the watchdog’s analysis of its figures.

    Informed Sources – which runs the website – claimed the Government watchdog had simply got its sums wrong with its advice to Cabinet and to the public that the Rudd Government’s FuelWatch scheme will save motorists money.”,23739,23782137-952,00.html

  21. Graham Samuels is Rudd’s new best mate!
    I’d presume he’s won himself reappointment to another term as ACCC Chair.

  22. The reason the Libs will lose the Fuelwatch debate is that it appears to have some impact on prices in WA (which are less than other states expect Qld which has subsidies), and even if it doesnt lower prices, it offers transparency and info to motorists. Isnt it worth a try then??

  23. Except Galaxy to do some push-polling on petrol. Perhaps a question on whether they approve of the Libs 5 cent cut, then ask voting preference???

  24. Now that Rudd seems to have his position well spelt out and under control, they should still continue the attack on the opposition: where will they get the money for the 5 cent cut? which funding program will they reduce? which tax will they increase? or do they plan for higher inflation and interest rates? They can’t win that one and Labor should stick to it.

    Further to Andrew’s comment a good counter question to ask would be:
    Would you accept higher interest rates in order to get 5 cents off fuel prices? That will leave Nelson and Shanahan gagging at the replies. (I get mixed up, which one is the Liberal politician and which is the journalist?)

  25. trubel at mill
    You’d have to explain to me your problem with the means test. I’m all for the solar industry, but subsidising the upper echelons of the Australian population doesn’t seem like the place that the government should be efficiently spending my tax dollars thankyou.
    I think the fact that the percentage of population that is both affected by the means test and is considering installation of units on truly rational grounds could best be described as a niche. It doesn’t matter how many signatures you get; the number affected is both small, and should know better.

  26. 832 Socrates – spot on. Having weathered the storm kick the crap out of the alternative plan. There is only one problem with it though and that is if the government down the track wants to adopt the idea – I would doubt that however.

  27. #834
    They might want to do it if inflation comes down and the surplus goes into the stratosphere, if only to match the Opposition, who would surely promise it. It wouldn’t do their global warming credibility any good, though.

  28. Just wait till Rudd starts telling them on a daily basis that people are sick of their indecision. Just pass the Bill.

  29. I doubt that very much Gary; we must remember that while there was debate over Rudds plan, it still went through a proper assessment process and Cabinet discussion. He had majority cabinet support – only a few (Howard appointed) bureacrats were in opposition. Nor has Rudd attempted to hide anything.

    By contrast Nelson dreamed his 5 cent cut up on the run, presented it in a major speech against advice from his own Ministers and claimed it had been costed and funded, even though it subsequently looks as though that was false (and he has never presented evidence to prove it). Ever since then the liberal stooges in Canberra have been desperately trying to leak material to deflect criticism from him. Strange how the Nelson “fan club” have forgotten this.

    As I said on a previous post it is a good test of the bias of political journalists if they interview Nelson on the fuel tax cut without asking how he will pay for it, as that point has been raised by just about every independant economist who has spoken on this.

  30. Sorry, I should have said “against advice from Shadow ministers” in 837; of course no departmental analysis of Nelson’s plan costing has been done because no funding explanation has been given 🙂

  31. After listening to the debate over the 5 cpl or fuelwatch I am convinced the plan by the Libs was to take the heat out of the debate about their bad management of the economy whilst in power.

    Nelson and Co can bleat on all they like about 5 cents, the fact of the matter is that from 2004 to 2007 there were TEN rate rises that added over $600 per month to my mortgage, over 7K pa, and the blame for the rises was the inept economics of Howard and Costello and the members of the Liberals AND Nationals that let them get away with it. There were warned to reign in spending, but Howard couldn’t help himself as he tried to but the 2007 election.

    I wish PM Rudd would batter the opposition over the head with this, as the mortgage payment is the thing that is killing a lot of folks at the present time.The tax relief in the budget will help, but increases in mortgage payments far outstrip any savings made on fuel.

    The opposition were thrown out of office by the electorate, not just because they were tired of JWH, but the country needed to go in a new direction. God help this country if Nelson, Turnbull & Co ever get re-elected. They were complicit in the Howard years and I suspect they have learned nothing.

  32. William
    I noticed you were off line earlier, if you need a donation can you give me a PO box address or somewhere to send you a money order to help out?

  33. ““Last weekend’s Morgan Poll shows a high 31.5% (up 6%) of Australians now say “Australia is heading in the wrong direction.”

    that means that an even HIGHER 68.5% think neutrally or that we are heading in the right direction

    must try harder gary


  34. At what point is Gary going to realise that his heading in the wrong direction statistic correlates with sweet F all, and the answer he’s getting is not to the question he thinks he’s asking?

    “We’re heading in the wrong direction, but I’d like a little more Rudd on my plate than last week please”.

    The only way it can make any sense is if support for the coalition front bench members has absolutely plummeted, and that people would love an alternative but can’t find one. The party numbers don’t support that and are virtually unchanged.

  35. What was that about the Rudd Honeymoon being over?
    Shamaham and his News Ltd hack mates are a disgrace to the profession of journalism.

  36. Possum,

    Gary says,

    “This weekend’s Morgan Poll will measure the effect on voting preferences caused by the recent ALP disunity on how to deal with rising petrol prices.”

    Gary means,

    “And we desperately hope that this weekends poll will cause something to happen?’. Is he a pollster or a barracker?

  37. 844 Progressive – in all fairness this poll is measuring last weekend’s thinking. To answer GG’s question Gary is a barracker and always has been. I don’t know what it is about pollsters but they all barrack conservative.

  38. What is it also with political journalists who insist on barracking rather than independently reporting?

  39. Gary – I dont think O’Shaugnessy baracks – he just made the mistake once of trying to defend a Dennis bout of fancy and has sworn publically that he’ll never do it again.

    I cant remember ever seeing Stirton barack either.

  40. Gary: point taken!
    As for pollsters: the bloke from AC Neilsen has always struck me as being impartial, unlike that idiot from Galaxy.

  41. 848 & 849 – yeah I will concede that. Some of these people just get under my skin.
    The latest Sky Noos poll is a joke. The Libs must be ringing and voting online their little hearts out

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