Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will resume next month.
In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to working families in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman).
In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.