Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
I don’t watch ABC news anymore because of the tabloid lows it has sunk to. But my sister straps herself into the armchair, props her eyelids open with matchsticks, stuffs a gag in her mouth and watches it for me.
She’s in Sydney (as am I) and she reports to me tonight that “The Rudd honeymonn is over” line was also used on Sydney ABC TV news.
So it ain’t just Perth JC.
[She’s in Sydney (as am I) and she reports to me tonight that “The Rudd honeymonn is over” line was also used on Sydney ABC TV news.
So it ain’t just Perth JC.]
I seem to recall hearing that the scripts to anything bar local stories are compiled from the Sydney Newsroom.
It is awful policy from Nelson and one roundly condemned for years. Even Hilliary Clinton tried it for a little while then let it drop.
Apart from making a hole in the Budget, it neglects that a 5c reduction in price will quickly taken up by the fuel companies who wont miss the opportunity to make a bonus billion. Who is going to know if the fuel price increase of 5 cents over a month was natural movement or fuel companies filling the gap left by the excise reduction.
So Nelson basically wants to cut billions from Govt revenue and give it to fuel companies for what? A bit of political popularism that has already been half killed by dissent within his own ranks and economists generally.
What next? If a 5 cent reduction in fuel why not on other things taxed? Reduce tax and this and that? Nelson in his attempt at popularism would be willing to obliterate the economy?
But it is really Turnbull who has lost economic credibility. Trying to trash the Head of Treasury ( his own head only months ago) and the Reserve Bank Governor (his own Governor months ago), saying one thing then the opposite becomes evident…..well Turnbull has made a mess of it all.
Things have gotten so bad that even Downer thinks he might have a chance….now that really does show how bad the LNP has become. Downer was among the least acceptable before the election, for good reason, and now even he looks as good as the rest. They are all useless. Their only saving grace is that any opposition in a two party state will always garner a large percentage of the vote.
From the Radiowise newsletter.
[1116 4BC Rallies Together With Brisbane Seniors
1116 4BC Breakfast Announcers Peter Dick and Ross Davie have been inundated with calls from Brisbane seniors after the recent federal budget was announced with no regard for our seniors.]
http://www.radioinfo.com.au/news_item.php?id=7509
Unfortunately you have to be a paid up subscriber to read the full story.
Does anyone believe Rudd’s comment, that he has done all he can for working families, will cause him any political difficulties? The journalists and opposition seem to be going into raptures over it. I just don’t think it will have any effect.
I’ll say it again. Where were these pensioners last year?
Thx for the confirmation BB and FC. I wasn’t sure if I was hearing things. Is this the start of the confirmation that all things are over – our ABC saying so!!!
Funny all these people were so quiet during the Howard years. Too scared to speak up or think they might actually get something now that he is gone.
Why were they declaring Rudd’s honeymoon over?
Now, all, just got home after my birthday weekend. Did my own polling, during. Have not read your posts. The Labor voters of the less than analytical kind are seriously upset with Kevin. Particularly those who are not of yet pensionable age but entertain enormous sympathy for the elderly poor. Who think back, even to 1948, for whatever reason and oddly enough the year of my birth.
Who believe that Kevin implicitly, or more likely believe explicitly, that it was a lay down misere that Kev would deliver the pensioners, aged at minimum, instant financial relief. Not ifs, no buts, no review, but now! They expected it after the long, mean, Howard years. They were used to Howard failing to do a thing. They hoped and hoped. They expected Kevin to deliver. Click. They are seriously, not merely disappointed, totally disillusioned!
Well, its a good thing the pensioners make up a small part of the population, politically speaking. Having said that I believe they will do well out of Kev before the next election. Why didn’t they pressure Howard?
The other thing that must be said is that this anger is not showing up in the polls yet.
I said, will you hear, it was not the pensioners I was listening, listening to. I did not argue, I heard. These people are intending to hold the State Government responsible, in the first instance. For whatever reason, that is the deal.
I am not a pensioner .. just older than 25
well older than 50 also
I can’t say that Downer and Turnbull on the front bench would be good for the LNP. Turnbull will always be worried about Downer’s intentions. Nelson would be happy though, gives Turnbull something else to worry about.
Just imagine the back biting. We know how petulant Downer can be.
The honeymoon over?
What? They mean that Rudd’s lead might come down to normal levels now that the media has hand in hand with the LNP have spent 18 months trying to character assassinate Rudd? I guess Nelson and Co will be elated when Labor falls from the high 50s which it must do eventually.
It is inevitable that by the next election the Labor party will be maxing out at around the 55/45 level. But even that is a very large lead. It is inevitable because the novelty wears off, people who had unreal expectations will be disappointed, the press will have had 3 years of trying to assassinate Labor.
However if Rudd wins it will be great, if he does it with 53.5/46.5 that will be even better.
But to be honest, if the press was describing the Liberal party’s real performance and abilities and its policies truthfully, with honest analysis the general public wouldn’t go near the LNP. With the current group Australia would be at risk with these people in power.
The LNP and its team is absolutely awful with limited policy making talent or leadership talent. Lacking direction and who knows what their platform is? ARE the media really saying that this group are an acceptable alternative government?
If Rudd squeaks through the next election he should go through media ownership regulations with a flame thrower and most certainly divide up the ABC into an entertainment/education and news/current affairs group and, remove any future possibility of a neocon controlling thought police ever being appointed again.
And when Rudd retires one day just how much in demand would he be with the corporate world? Costello cant find a job, Rudd will be knocking them back.
Has anyone read Milne’s latest rant in the Oz?
Apparently the Labor candidate for Gippsland is a former mayor of somewhere or other who was also a Festival director. A year or more ago the festival included a production called Beautiful losers which was rather rude.
Shock, horror, the sky is falling on the Labor Party! An apocoplypse is about to descend!
Is this goose for real?
I believe pensioners will be a large demographic for ABC TV which means they would have seen Rudd on TV the other night.
I have no doubt that the Labor election machine is in full swing planning.
It would be good if the Labor States got themselves into proper order soon, especially NSW where they are ruining the brand name. They ought to be careful or get caught out like Howard did. Along will come a Rudd type and all of a sudden they (NSW Liberal) decide to be coherent for 5 seconds until the election.
Yes, I do know how to spell apocolypse.
I do mean to say, that none to whom I have listened has expressed an intention to vote Liberal, federally next time, yet. Obviously and because there is nowhere to go.
The disillusionment and clear sense of entrapment may easily result in a backlash against State Labor, which they seem in my State at least, to be pretty well asking for. Tasmania thread speaks for itself.
Of course, it is the responsibility of the murdoch press to make sure Labor doesn’t get elected in Gippsland. Any stupid little thing will be news if it can be spun in a negative manner. Don’t assume that these people are jounalists.
Turnbull will be starting to get nervous about now. It will dawn on him that he will have to debate Rudd three times during the next election campaign. By then Rudd will be well and truly polished and more impressive than usual. Turnbull will still be the waffling wind bag.
IMHO, the problem with Nelson’s 5 c/l excise cut isn’t what it does to the budget, but that it’s a diversion and impediment to tackling the problem.
The fact is that the combination of peak oil and climate change is propelling us into a new paradigm that will require new solutions, not desperately applying band-aids in a vain attempt to retain the status quo. That simply is no longer possible.
However, I don’t get a sense that the government has grasped the extent of the problem either. Its thinking also seems to be fixated on managing the consequences of escalating petrol pricing instead of working on alternative transport solutions. The plans to remove LPG subsidies being just one example.
fizdig at 64, i’ve posted about this before. I cant believe how many opposition MPs have been the guest on Insiders, and other ABC shows, and coverage on the news. The ABC is a complete joke
Crikey and any others,
I am curious exactly who amoung the pensiones is sayign they are bitterly dissappointed? I don’t mean to identify individuals but demographic groups. Please be specific about age groups and status. I strongly disagree with the notion that all pensioners need more money. Some do (eg disabled & carers), but many don’t. Statistically, those 55 to 70 are the wealthiest group in our society. Curiously, the over 75s are actualy poorer than the generation after them. So who exactly is saying this?
I raise this question again because if there is one group in our society who are in for a rude shock in the next decade, it is those imagining they can retire at 55 and comfortably live till 80+ at public expense. Unless you are in the top 5% of income earners (hence no pension neede) it isn’t possible. The numbers just don’t add up. Retirement at 55 was always a pyramid scheme paid for by population growth and all the working women who had to give up their jobs when they got married in the 50s and 60s. Pension schemes were started with payouts at age 65 when male life expectancy was about 68. Now with people starting work later and living longer, retirement also needs to be delayed.
Anyone who dobts what I say should study the social history of what happened to Sweden and Finland in the 1980s and 90s with their low populaiton growth and long life expectancy. They had to change some of their retirement income schemes because they were unsustainable. France and Germany are now grappling with the same problem.
Time to put an end to this idyllic illusion (fully funded retirement before 65+).
Further to my previous post, here is a link to a good paper on Swedish pension reforms
http://www.nek.uu.se/pdf/wp2002_6.pdf
Good news Labor and the PM have done all they physically can to provide help with the Family Budget! Lol! 🙂
JOM
Obviously they haven’t done all they could. The trouble is they have already done more than they should. Nor have they cut all the fat that should have gone, including some business welfare, which is absurd in a booming economy. See Ross Gittin’s column this morning, which isn’t flattering for Rudd or Nelson:
http://business.smh.com.au/rudd-needs-to-start-leading-20080525-2i1p.html?page=1
Socrates #127,
You should be emailing the link to the PM and the Labor Party for the PM said, we (I assume the Labor Party) have done all they physically can to provide help with the Family Budget.
What was Howard doing for 11.5 years if Rudd has done everything in 6 months?
Good question John, but I really don’t think you want to be reminded of the answer!
Cheers Fulvio would it go something like this being Australia most successful Prime Minister?
JOM
By Howard’s Lies, that is an exaggeration of almost Liberal proportions!
Ah John, thinks he sees a head to kick and pops his up to be kicked. The conservatives (medis included) think they have Rudd on this and that everyone out in voter land now hates him. The average person wouldn’t even know he said it. The next set of polls will continue to show Nelson a dud and the Libs languishing.
Successful at what exactly?
Here’s your opportunity to trot out the campaign lines again.
Guess what – they didn’t work at the last election – didn’t convince a majority.
an the reason they’ll work now is…(fill in the blank)?
He might have been successful in your own little world, but that’s exactly the problem. Some perspective beyond your immediate is required.
Please.
Lol, Howard was yesterdays man, todays man, Kevin Rudd, has declared he’s finished the job just 6 months into a new government, I suppose it leaves him with more time with Cate, Hugh and the rest of the gang.
Howard was a successful PM? Successful at being the second PM to lose his seat. Wow he was well liked.
One would think four terms would be considered a success.
JOM
Just because I try to be honest in assessing Rudd’s performance for better and worse, doesn’t mean I can’t also recognise the extraordinary degree of dishonesty and mediocrity that characterised Howard’s government. In fact, I saw some at first hand.
Howard was successful at getting himself elected four times, not much else. Even if that is your only criteria for success (election) Howard is obviously inferiro to Menzies, so there is no rational criteria by which Howard could be described as Australia’s most successful PM. For economic criteria, growth rates of GDP and GDP per capita were far higher in the 60s, so you can forget about claims along those lines to. Howard was cunning not clever and in terms of outcomes just lucky, plus frankly he faced an opposition that was weak in defending Labor principles (sorry Kim but its true). Thats the only reason he got elected four times.
If election is your only yardstick for a politician’s success, given that Howard is one of only two sitting PMs to lose his own seat, does that make him our second most unsuccessful PM?
Is this the same JoM.
I thought you were a bit deeper than news.com.au comments previously?
Oh, now you want to cut Howard loose John (yesterday’s man). I would too if I were you. He wasn’t that good.
Gary #135, JWH sould have done the Beazley thing and looked for a safe seat?
I’m trying Onimod. 🙂
Up until now Rudd had shown a polished performance he went into the election giving the perception that he could stop prices from rising now he has said he has done all he can after 6 months… To quote Seinfeld, “It’s gold Jerry, Gold!”
What do you think of Nelson John? Will he last?
Do you think Rudd’s comment will save Nelson?
John, it’s only gold for those who take any interest in politics. It will go over most people’s head. It will certainly be forgotten when the Libs change leaders.
I like Nelson he has done a great job and should be given at least a year to 1.5 years to prove himself.
Will he last… I think it depends on how much he persues Rudd over his comment and yes Rudd’s comment did save Nelson. Which ever way the petrol price debate goes it will forever be known as Nelson’s baby. If prices continue to go up people will ask how come we have to wait a year to see if a review recommends GST excise be removed.
So if/when petrol prices reach $2.00 people will thank “thank heavens they are now only going to be $1.95. I don’t know about you John but that really doesn’t do much for me.
First “thank” should be “say”.
Are you really suggesting John that if Labor brings the petrol price down people will be thinking to themselves “Brendan did that”? Hardly.
[I like Nelson he has done a great job and should be given at least a year to 1.5 years to prove himself.]
Tell us the old old story JOM. First he is just going to stay until the budget, now it is the end of the year, then it will be till the budget next year, then till the end of next year, then, hell why not keep him till the next election?
My used by date for Nelson is this Wednesday’s Party room meeting anything past there is just being deliberately damaging to the Australian economy by ensuring political uncertainty.
Gary I do see your point and yes it is valid but 5 cents reduction across the board means other commodities will also be cheaper.
Plus its action now, Rudd seems to or at least I have the impression delay things and pass it onto reviews etc. Make a decision and stick by it.