Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Morgan has released two sets of federal poll results: a mid-week phone poll of 765 respondents, and a face-to-face poll of 897 respondents conducted last weekened. Morgan has gone against normal practice by using “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” for the headline two-party measure for the phone poll, which puts Labor’s lead at 64-36. The more reliable “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” has it at 62.5-37.5, down from 63.5-36.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has it at 62-38, the same as the previous such poll conducted a fortnight ago.

Other news:

• The main starters are in place for the Gippsland by-election. The Nationals have nominated Darren Chester, staffer to state party leader Peter Ryan; Labor has nominated Wellington Shire mayor Darren McCubbin; and the Liberal candidate is Central Gippsland Health Service bureaucrat Rohan Fitzgerald. Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun reports Labor internal polling has them on 36 per cent to the Nationals’ 32 per cent and the Liberals’ 19 per cent, which after preferences would mean a comfortable win for the Nationals.

• On Monday, The West Australian published a Westpoll survey of 406 voters concerning federal voting intention in Western Australia, which had Labor leading 62-38 – a 16 per cent turn-around from the federal election. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Costello on 19 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull on 18 per cent, local hero Julie Bishop on 17 per cent, Brendan Nelson on 12 per cent and Joe Hockey on 11 per cent. The survey also gauged support on a republic, finding 51 per cent support against 33 per cent outright opposition, with 70 per cent supporting a referendum on the matter to coincide with the next election (leaving aside the small matter of the model being proposed).

• Norm Kelly, member of the Australian National University’s Democratic Audit and former Western Australian Democrats state MP, peruses the government’s recently announced package of electoral reforms and finds fault with the move to tie public campaign funding to verified expenditure (clearly introduced to prevent a repeat of Pauline Hanson’s $200,000-plus windfalls from her recent Senate campaigns), which he says will disadvantage minor parties in its proposed form.

• Radio National’s The National Interest program had an interesting item recently on campaign funding laws in New York City and Canada. The practice of the former makes it very hard to understand why donations for last year’s federal election won’t be disclosed until February next year (to the extent that they still need to be disclosed at all, following the Howard government’s disgraceful 2006 “reforms”).

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is inviting submissions for its inquiry into the 2007 federal election, which will be received until Friday, May 16.

• I have just had to cough up $400 for annual site hosting, so now would be a good time for those who like to make the occasional donation.

UPDATE: Victorian Greens upper house MP Greg Barber drops by in comments to plug a parliamentary inquiry into the state’s donation disclosure laws. Reader ShowsOn tells us he has been Newspoll-ed, and that we can expect Tuesday’s poll to feature responses on who would make the best Liberal leader out of Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull; who would make the best leadership team out of Nelson/Bishop, Costello/Turnbull and Turnbull/Andrew Robb; and who out of Turnbull and Wayne Swan would be best at handling the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  1. From wikipaedia:

    Characteristics of the “elite”
    Attributes that identify an elite vary; personal achievement may not be essential. Elite usually denotes a person or group who is the best in a class. Elite attributes include:
    * Rigorous study of, or great accomplishment within, a particular field of study
    * A long track record of competence in a demanding field
    * An extensive history of dedication and effort in service to a specific discipline (e.g., medicine or martial arts)
    * A high degree of accomplishment, training or wisdom within a given field.

    Some synonyms for elite might be “World class,” “Upper-class,” and “Aristocratic,” indicating that the individual in question is capable of participating effectively at the very highest levels of his or her chosen discipline.

  2. Chris B all one had to do was look at the 2020 Summit delegates 95% of whom were left wing cultural elitists who are hung up on issues like a Republic and a Bill of Rights!

  3. Glen let me know if you would count anyone of these as elites,
    Lachlan Murdoch
    James Packer
    Heather Ridout
    David Flint
    Rosanna Capolingua
    Malcolm Turnbull
    Mark Taylor

  4. Timbo there is a difference between being an a part of the elite and being a left wing elitists!

    Rudd and Obama have something in common they both espouse left wing elitism.

  5. #247:

    Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II of Australia is above elitism Timbo.

    Gotta love that.

    A heriditary, multi-millionaire female monarch who runs around in a golden coach, who lives in castles, who is also Head of the Church Of England (which only reluctantly allows female ministers) as Queen Of Australia where laws (signed by her representative, who at once stage was a prince of the Anglican church) apply that purport to prevent discrimination on the grounds of gender or religion is above elitism?

    Is it no wonder non-Australians (especially from many Muslim countries that we accuse of running theocracies!) shake their head in wonderment at the silliness and yes – elitism – of it all?

  6. 252 ah yes – it’s in my favourites.
    Always good for treatment after accidentally clicking on a news.com.au comments section.

  7. “there is a difference between being an a part of the elite and being a left wing elitists”

    yep – usually it’s the intelligence of the person applying the term

  8. Bill Heffernan was participating actively and actually coming up with good ideas in his part of the Summit. Tim Fisher and other Liberals likewise.

    Don’t spew your bile in here, please, Glen.

  9. 256 Timbo:
    Glen let me know if you would count anyone of these as elites,
    Lachlan Murdoch
    James Packer
    Heather Ridout
    David Flint
    Rosanna Capolingua
    Malcolm Turnbull
    Mark Taylor

    You could add to that list former deputy PM Tim Fisher. He comes across as a really decent individual. When you compare him to his predecessors (Anderson and Vaile) he stands out as a champion of ordinary people. I think Keating, as much as I admire his style and wit, was very unfair in the way he ridiculed Fisher.

  10. Glen, sorry @258 maybe your post was badly written but it seems to me that you are saying that elitism is ok, as long as those elites are not left wing. Is this correct, do you actually process what you are saying before you write it?

  11. Steve K @265 Absolutely! the conservative side of politics lost out big time, the day he retired, it’s hard to think of anyone more affable and decent in Australian public life.

  12. 266
    Timbo – i am merely saying that left wing elitists are not relevant to today’s society.

    267
    Chris B – what Liberal elite?

  13. I cannot believe that half the day on this post has been spent debating whether the participants at the Summit were ‘elite’ or not and whether or not that’s a good thing.

    I’ll try to sum it up for you – yes, the people who were at the Summit can be considered “elite”. If they weren’t “elite”, then they probably wouldn’t have been invited there in the first place. After all, it was supposed to be a collection of “Australia’s best and brightest”.

    Second, whilst some (if not most) of the “elite” were left-leaning (no real surprise there), there were several conservatives there as well (and not just a token amount). After all, people like Heather Ridout, Bill Heffernan, Andrew Forrest, Gerard Henderson and Miranda Devine would not take likely to be considered “left-leaning”…

  14. Chris B…what about Silvio Berlusconi’s victory for the conservatives in Italy…the Communists didn’t win any seats there lol!

  15. The debate about elites seems to me to be a little unreal. Who cares if someone is “elite” (whatever that may mean) provided they come up with good ideas. Conversely who cares if someone is “ordinary” (whatever that may mean!) provided they come up with good ideas. Branding people like this has no value unless one is trying to denigrate them and their sincere contributution using any basis no matter how unsound. I would suggest in the context of the Summit the ideas are what should be evaluated and not their persons, especially using such vague stereotypes.

    The Summit was part of a tried and true Change Process as stated elsewhere in this Blog. It was hardly radical or a stunt as some people have implied. It is also part of planning without which no Corporation could exist long term. People are just not use to seeing planning as part of the political process over a long period such as up to 2020, it is usually only 3 years and shorter. Besides the obvious electoral issues involved in short time frames it does require genuine imagination to plan for long time frames.

    Besides the intrinsic value of the ideas, the high profile of the Summit could very well trigger indirectly and legitimise much more use of the imagination in the Corporate and Work fields in the general community. It depends on how it is followed up.

    This can only be good for Australia.

  16. I am surprised that the Summit didn’t even speculate about longer parliamentary terms for federal politics or optional preferential voting ect. But the elitists i guess wanted a Republic and Bill of Rights more oh well!

  17. Just been perusing some of the right-wing blogs….

    What’s analagous term for “Howard Hater” for those on the right wing?

    At least most in the left waited till Howard actually did horrible things. Even talking seems enough to set some of these guys off!

    “Rudd Ridiculer” is is reasoable but seems to have one too many syllables.

    “Rudd Basher” sounds better…

    “ABC Radio Presenter” works, but would be lost on many…

    Any other ideas?

  18. 292 Rates Analyst

    Spot on! They hate him with a passion already! What for? Like you I became a Howard Hater but that was after Iraq, Tampa, Hicks, GST etc etc

  19. 260 Glen Says:
    “Timbo there is a difference between being an a part of the elite and being a left wing elitists!”

    Priceless. Yes Glen, the left wing elitists are different – they are smarter!! ROTFL So the Right Wing Elite are too elitist to let the Left wing elite into their definition of Elite? Now that is trully elitist. I herby declare myself to be part of the Egalitarian Left, and to deny any connection to the Radical Right, or the Left Wing Elite, which is not elitist, and therefore does not exist 🙂

    Scoprio 234
    Thanks that made me feel much happier about teh outcomes of teh 2020 summit. They didn’t really sovel anything in my are (transport and infrastructure) but the republic and other political outcomes are quite sensible.

  20. Sorry for my abysmal typing above. In summary, having read the 2020 summit outcomes document now, I don’t think it was anywhere near as bad as reported. And that is coming from a (left-wing elitist?) sceptic of the thing.

  21. Hahahahaha Timbo!

    I heard him speak something somewhere in that horrible dead dull montonous voice he has and groaned “and another 3 years of this drone? groan!” but that was not exactly hating now eh?

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