Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Morgan has released two sets of federal poll results: a mid-week phone poll of 765 respondents, and a face-to-face poll of 897 respondents conducted last weekened. Morgan has gone against normal practice by using “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” for the headline two-party measure for the phone poll, which puts Labor’s lead at 64-36. The more reliable “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” has it at 62.5-37.5, down from 63.5-36.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has it at 62-38, the same as the previous such poll conducted a fortnight ago.

Other news:

• The main starters are in place for the Gippsland by-election. The Nationals have nominated Darren Chester, staffer to state party leader Peter Ryan; Labor has nominated Wellington Shire mayor Darren McCubbin; and the Liberal candidate is Central Gippsland Health Service bureaucrat Rohan Fitzgerald. Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun reports Labor internal polling has them on 36 per cent to the Nationals’ 32 per cent and the Liberals’ 19 per cent, which after preferences would mean a comfortable win for the Nationals.

• On Monday, The West Australian published a Westpoll survey of 406 voters concerning federal voting intention in Western Australia, which had Labor leading 62-38 – a 16 per cent turn-around from the federal election. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Costello on 19 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull on 18 per cent, local hero Julie Bishop on 17 per cent, Brendan Nelson on 12 per cent and Joe Hockey on 11 per cent. The survey also gauged support on a republic, finding 51 per cent support against 33 per cent outright opposition, with 70 per cent supporting a referendum on the matter to coincide with the next election (leaving aside the small matter of the model being proposed).

• Norm Kelly, member of the Australian National University’s Democratic Audit and former Western Australian Democrats state MP, peruses the government’s recently announced package of electoral reforms and finds fault with the move to tie public campaign funding to verified expenditure (clearly introduced to prevent a repeat of Pauline Hanson’s $200,000-plus windfalls from her recent Senate campaigns), which he says will disadvantage minor parties in its proposed form.

• Radio National’s The National Interest program had an interesting item recently on campaign funding laws in New York City and Canada. The practice of the former makes it very hard to understand why donations for last year’s federal election won’t be disclosed until February next year (to the extent that they still need to be disclosed at all, following the Howard government’s disgraceful 2006 “reforms”).

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is inviting submissions for its inquiry into the 2007 federal election, which will be received until Friday, May 16.

• I have just had to cough up $400 for annual site hosting, so now would be a good time for those who like to make the occasional donation.

UPDATE: Victorian Greens upper house MP Greg Barber drops by in comments to plug a parliamentary inquiry into the state’s donation disclosure laws. Reader ShowsOn tells us he has been Newspoll-ed, and that we can expect Tuesday’s poll to feature responses on who would make the best Liberal leader out of Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull; who would make the best leadership team out of Nelson/Bishop, Costello/Turnbull and Turnbull/Andrew Robb; and who out of Turnbull and Wayne Swan would be best at handling the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  1. I remember when my favourite socialist George Soros started manipulating the British Pound they almost went under. They quickly withdrew from the Euro.

  2. Yep the same in America, with their massive debt- hence Clinton. The same again under Bush.
    The same but different in regards to debt- hardly any public debt but significant private debt and why because governments do not do anything, it is left up to the people… hence education, houses, healthcare, everything has been privatised or is run by private operators. Again higher taxes create societies in which everyone benefits and creating better economies, due to excellent education, healthcare and social programs, especially when it comes to training and vocational employment programs.

  3. Chris B,

    Blair was the PM who said “We are all Thatcherites now”.

    Thatcher’s economic reforms are now recognised as the ideal model of economic leadership (although it may not always be politically popular)

  4. That wasn’t the Euro. That was European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Somewhat different kettle of fish. (but still fish).

  5. Yep Swing Lowe but whom sings such praises.. the media and business elites who get noticed due to their certain newspapers owners. These were the people who benefited. Not the people in working classes suburbs or the poor.
    Always the way when you privatise and cut taxes.

  6. Off the current topic a little, I have question on the state play in NSW. If Iemma and Kosta are expelled from the ALP for disloyalty, how many will follow them and not the party? Only need 6 MPs to go, you have a hung parliament.

    And what happens if there is a hung parliament with fixed terms there?

  7. They will not be expelled. But should be occurring in New South Wales is Federal Intervention from its Federal ranks. Unfortunately it will not occur because the NSW party probably controls the federal party. Put simply i think both parties have some probs behind the scenes.

  8. But if it occurred than it would be up to independents to decide the situation, that is if NSW have some lower house independents? Can someone enlighten me…

  9. Iemma and Costa won’t get expelled.

    The privatisation will happen and the unions won’t be happen. Of course, if the privatisation goes well (a big if), it would probably be enough to secure another 4 year term for the ALP given the current inept state of the State Libs.

    That said, if things go badly (e.g, power bills soar soon after the privatisation), it will sink the government. But then again, given how bad things are going for the NSW Government at the moment, a big gamble like this is probably worth going for…

  10. There are a 6 lower house independents in NSW. They are in the following seats:

    1. Sydney (Clover Moore)
    2. Tamworth
    3. Lake Macquarie (vs Labor)
    4. Port Macquarie (Rob Oakeshott’s seat)
    5. Dubbo
    6. Northern Tablelands (Torbay – the Speaker)

    Torbay and the MLA for Dubbo will definitely vote for Labor. Torbay’s a Labor mate, whilst the MLA for Dubbo wouldn’t have been elected if it hadn’t been for Labor running dead in the 2007 Election. So too does the MLA for Tamworth (same reason).

    The rest will probably vote for the Coalition (although you never know with rural independents)…

  11. So in NSW, Is it possibly to engineer the demise of one’s own government with a vote of no confidence if they desire an early election?

  12. The Victorian power companies want it because due to the corporatised power companies in New South Wales their has been a cap on prices.
    The people in New South Wales have much to look forward to, companies ringing and knocking on your door during dinner and prices interesting enough between companies not much different thus you have to compare the different bits and pieces and when you do prices tend to be the same.
    And it comes to maintenance and power companies doing things after storms you really have no idea who your company is who looks after your area. This was the case here in Victoria recently when we had a major blackout many of us had no idea who was looking after the blackout in their area..
    And will staffing levels drop… You betcha…
    B.S time you laughed at yourself and lightened up.. but…

  13. Thanks Swing Lowe.
    That will mean 3 and 3 – Good at adding up ah… So we are left with a deadlock still, hang on not sure about the erratic Clover Moore do you think she would support the Libs…

    Mind you Labor deserves to go down in New South Wales, they have pathetic, inept and tacitly corrupt?

  14. Actually who will own the privatised companies, Australian companies or a host of overseas multinationals’.. More reason to lower our taxes to encourage Australian entrepeneurship… No just to speculate and buy a few more paintings for offices and to buy another boat on the harbour…

  15. chris, i was amazed the lead story on ABC radio all day (as least when I tuned in) was the Australia Institute’s criticism of the summit. Are we really paying for this crap, and when does the board change??

  16. also the lead story on Yahoo7 online. even if the opposition was saying it it would be dubious as a lead story, but the Australia Institute? What would you expect them to say??

  17. SL @ 353 ‘the ideal model of economic leadership’
    Must be fun down that end of the right wing alp seesaw but when you rise for air do please explain. Nothing quite like a generic 101 ‘bone’ for the masses eh… simple $ easy…neh? I assume you are joking, of course. Re the ‘perceived’ & ‘cemented’ wisdom that is.

  18. What are you on about Marky? If you look at my comment I said I didn’t think you were how you discribed yourself. Peace Mate. (My opinion however could change if you play the man and not the ball).

  19. Morgan seems to be doing more phone polls lately. They might do one on the 2020 summit. That will show what the public actually thinks of the whole kit and kaboodle. I don’t think we are truely representive group…..

  20. Bloody hell, I’m just hanging out for Newspoll! What a poll junkie I’ve become, and William, in the spirit of the previous political era, it’s all your fault. You gem!

  21. Well. Jeez, B. S. Fairman, we do provide a representation of the left wing latte, chardonnay sipping left wing elites ( Howard haters subcommittee), don’t we?

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