Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Morgan has released two sets of federal poll results: a mid-week phone poll of 765 respondents, and a face-to-face poll of 897 respondents conducted last weekened. Morgan has gone against normal practice by using “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” for the headline two-party measure for the phone poll, which puts Labor’s lead at 64-36. The more reliable “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” has it at 62.5-37.5, down from 63.5-36.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has it at 62-38, the same as the previous such poll conducted a fortnight ago.

Other news:

• The main starters are in place for the Gippsland by-election. The Nationals have nominated Darren Chester, staffer to state party leader Peter Ryan; Labor has nominated Wellington Shire mayor Darren McCubbin; and the Liberal candidate is Central Gippsland Health Service bureaucrat Rohan Fitzgerald. Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun reports Labor internal polling has them on 36 per cent to the Nationals’ 32 per cent and the Liberals’ 19 per cent, which after preferences would mean a comfortable win for the Nationals.

• On Monday, The West Australian published a Westpoll survey of 406 voters concerning federal voting intention in Western Australia, which had Labor leading 62-38 – a 16 per cent turn-around from the federal election. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Costello on 19 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull on 18 per cent, local hero Julie Bishop on 17 per cent, Brendan Nelson on 12 per cent and Joe Hockey on 11 per cent. The survey also gauged support on a republic, finding 51 per cent support against 33 per cent outright opposition, with 70 per cent supporting a referendum on the matter to coincide with the next election (leaving aside the small matter of the model being proposed).

• Norm Kelly, member of the Australian National University’s Democratic Audit and former Western Australian Democrats state MP, peruses the government’s recently announced package of electoral reforms and finds fault with the move to tie public campaign funding to verified expenditure (clearly introduced to prevent a repeat of Pauline Hanson’s $200,000-plus windfalls from her recent Senate campaigns), which he says will disadvantage minor parties in its proposed form.

• Radio National’s The National Interest program had an interesting item recently on campaign funding laws in New York City and Canada. The practice of the former makes it very hard to understand why donations for last year’s federal election won’t be disclosed until February next year (to the extent that they still need to be disclosed at all, following the Howard government’s disgraceful 2006 “reforms”).

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is inviting submissions for its inquiry into the 2007 federal election, which will be received until Friday, May 16.

• I have just had to cough up $400 for annual site hosting, so now would be a good time for those who like to make the occasional donation.

UPDATE: Victorian Greens upper house MP Greg Barber drops by in comments to plug a parliamentary inquiry into the state’s donation disclosure laws. Reader ShowsOn tells us he has been Newspoll-ed, and that we can expect Tuesday’s poll to feature responses on who would make the best Liberal leader out of Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull; who would make the best leadership team out of Nelson/Bishop, Costello/Turnbull and Turnbull/Andrew Robb; and who out of Turnbull and Wayne Swan would be best at handling the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  1. Its great to see another magnificent set of numbers, well done Labor. Not impressed with Peter Garrett and the lack of ticker regarding plastic bags tho.

  2. Inflation is expected to reach a 17 year high and the Libs of course will blame the 6 month old Labor government and take no responsibility at all.

  3. 1 sinowestie
    Agreed with the lack of ticker at first glance, but I believe for all the talk that this government will tread carefully on the hip pocket issues as it’s clearly the only area the coalition can make any gains.
    Another way of looking at it is that there’s just not enough public support for the idea all over Australia. Note how Garrett made the states go out and explain their actions? SA will take the lead, prove there is no negative consequences, and it will spread Australia wide within 18 months.

    on the polls – listening isn’t doing the job Brendan.
    “On 4 December 2006 Mr Rudd was elected as the 19th leader of the Australian Labor Party”
    F&(k me if that isn’t the longest honeymoon in history.

  4. watch the torie gippsland by-election spinning start in earnest. they’ll paint it as a possible Labor win and then cheer a Nationals win as a rejection of Rudd and the end of the honeymoon. dont say I didnt warn you…

  5. #8 – That’s what the opening p’graph of the column says; but the rest of the column suggests that Shanahan is playing devil’s advocate. He argues that Nelson might be in for the long haul (or at least, beyond July), and the reasons he gives are actually plausible.

  6. Or in other words, Shanahan’s articles are now carry about the same insight and weight as something posted on pollbludger.

  7. Or in other words, Shanahan’s articles are now carry about the same insight and weight as something posted on pollbludger.

    Hey! The posters on Pollbludger are never that petulant.

  8. Fortunately the Opposition and media attempts to assassinate any trivial thing the Rudd government hasn’t help the Opposition improve its standing.

    The press will now hopefully deal with the government in an even handed way and instead of glossing over begin focussing on the difficulties within the Opposition, their cause and how they might be solved. Turning the heat up on the Opposition might force them to deal with their problems.

  9. “Rudd has become more than a leader, he’s become a phenomenon. He’s been able to turn every potential setback or embarrassment into gold.” – Shanahan’s Opinion piece.

    Is Shanahan admitting defeat here? Every effort by S. and his fellow reporters to smear Rudd has actually finished up working for him, not against him .

  10. Or in other words, Shanahan’s articles are now carry about the same insight… …as something posted on pollbludger.

    As a group we called the election pretty accurately, several weeks in advance. Some even got the actual number of seats right.

    Compare and contrast to the MSM, in particular the senior opinionistas in the Murdoch franchise.

  11. I’m sure that this is the OO way of telling the Libs “Listen guys, we can’t continue to support a loser like Nelson without seriously damaging our brand name and credibility. Unless you can come up with a new leader we have no option but to support Rudd.”

  12. Either way you’ll be crowing about the Liberals not winning the Seat of Gippsland and calling for Nelson’s head. That Labor is on 36% primary should be viewed as a win even though they’ll probably lose out to the Nationals considering the preference flows of the Liberals.

    Still considering the retirement of a popular local MP and Rudd’s large lead in all opinion polls would indicate that Labor should be red hot favourites to win the seat given the small 5.5% margin. But its nice to know that solid Tory seats aren’t turning Red anytime soon by the looks of things.

    Would a Gippsland win make Warren Truss safe as the Nats leader lol?

    I am not happy that because of the ALP i’d have to pay 25c per plastic bag for the shopping, this is environmentalism gone mad! Why should Victorians suffer this stupid tax while other States don’t!

    Also why is Rudd bringing out pie in the sky ideas with no idea how to implement them or how much they’ll cost, is this really how our Government should work??? He’s doing it for media attention that’s it.

    I also am not happy Nelson is going to this bogus 20/20 Summit, especially since he has trashed it and is still going i mean it’s not like he’d lose any more points on PPM by not going and it would make a statement that the whole process is basically there to support Labor’s policy platforms for the future, Republic, Bill of Rights ect.

  13. 17 That Labor is on 36% primary should be viewed as a win

    Glen, that might be a win in Toryland but Labor only counts a win as over 50% of the vote.

  14. No i just don’t think people should be charged for plastic bags, grocery prices are already higher than ever and that should be Rudd’s main problem to fix after all his campaign promises Chris IMHO.

    Steve i was merely positing that for the left to get 36% primary vote in a solid Tory seat was a good effort for them. Pigs will fly if the ALP gets 50% of the primary vote in Gippsland.

  15. Glen, not good enough though! Labor still need to improve 15% after all so as not to reward a party who sat back and did nothing while horseflu took off. Let alone the slap in the face delivered by the Nationals in wasting the Gippsland electorate’s time for almost half a year when the current member could have just stepped down before the last election.

    They’d be far better off with a Government member who could deliver some real benefits to Gippsland than an opposition that has nothing to offer except division and turmoil. The Opposition could not even muster a quorum for shadow Cabinet this week, so out of touch have they become.

  16. I did hear that the shadow Cabinet decisions were written on the back of a postage stamp this week and there was more than enough room left for next week’s minutes as well.

  17. Does a Nat win in Gippsland save Nelson’s bacon because it is a coalition hold? Or does it accelerate his demise because of the Liberal’s woeful primary vote?


  18. It would certainly be a huge reversal of Australian political history so far sceptic, people usually swim away from a sinking ship not towards it.

  19. Re: my post at 6. And right on cue, Glen starts the tory false expectation of an ALP gippsland victory. you guys are nothing if not predictable

  20. Andrew, according to the latest polling he may well be right. Labor certainly has a lot of work to do if they are to win.

  21. GE last Nov gave Nats 5.9% margin in Gippsland.
    Labor polling now has it now at 6%! What a sneaky lot they are!
    What a wally Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun is for swallowing this crap served up by Labor. Anything for a story I guess, but really, he does look a fool.
    Labor has improved its stocks in EVERY electorate since the election and even though Gippsland is unlikely to fall to Labor, they will (sitting member spits dummy, Rudd on high etc) cut the margin to less than 2% at the by-election.
    Current poll with 6% 2PP margin to the Nats is just so much fantasy.

  22. Glen @#17 wrote:

    I also am not happy Nelson is going to this bogus 20/20 Summit, especially since he has trashed it

    He did?

    When Rudd announced the summit, Nelson said it was an “excellent” idea, and agreed to attend. … On Tuesday Nelson said: “I think the fundamental concept of … bringing people who’ve got something to offer from across the political, cultural and economic spectrum together, to think about our future and ideas for it is something that should and must be supported.”

    Michelle Grattan, The Age, 29 February 2008

    Sounds like as glowing a spiel of praise as one could expect from an Opposition Leader for a government initiative.

    It was his colleagues, eg Joe Hockey, who insubordinated him by “trashing” the summit.

  23. Why would internal Labor party “polling” supposely be leaked right now? What are they after by leaking?

    Simple, you leak polling suggesting that the ALP won’t win, which means that after a by-election win the leader will not under as much pressure as he is currently. So anti-Nelson forces have to weigh up whether to risk waiting for after the byelection or not, as a byelection win is going to weaken the urge to dump Nelson. So there might be a an urge to get rid of him before hand, in case, there is a by-election win.

    Whoever leaked this “polling” is very smart as they know it does more damage to the other side then their own (they might even be reading from the book of Fairman with this cleaver move). It might even help get the TBs out on the Labor side of things.

  24. Gippsland is a seat with a somewhat parochial flavour. McGauran was seen as a local member who was in tune with local concerns. The nature of the candidates will be important here. That means it’s not just an issue of political party preference. If the Labor candidate is perceived as a genuine local person he’s in with a chance.

  25. 22
    steve – that is the comment we used when we were in Government in 2004 why have an opposition MP when you could have a Government MP. In actual fact it is a stupid proposition, for by your logic because Labor is in power people shouldn’t vote Liberal as they wont get anything from the Government if they do.

  26. Hey does anyone know when the new Queensland state electorate boundaries draft will be released? Thought that it would be this month.

  27. The NT Intervention was an election stunt that the got themselves trapped into saying they were making it an important long term goal.

    Howard’s statements at the time were that the intervention would take tens of millions of dollars and about 6 months…..he quickly added to that when Labor didn’t bite and focus fell back on him. It was intended as a wedge and also an opportunity to find some victims and suspects to parade before the electorate….however human rights stepped in and Howard couldn’t forceable inspect children to find victims in a hurry. The Howard govt’s intentions were not much better than Tampa and SIEVEX.

  28. Glen you only get charged for the plastic bag if your too stupid to work out an alternative, and having people work out an alternative is the aim of the exercise.

  29. 34
    Costello didn’t budget for extra childcare places etc for all the extra babies born because of the baby bonus. Crap Treasurer!

    William re donations I sent you a cheque for $40 last Jan that I don’t think you ever cashed??

  30. the victorian parliament will conduct an inquiry into the adequacy of donation disclosure under victorian law, after a motion i moved was supported unanimously. debate was last wednesday 16th in the legislative council.

    here’s the TOR:

    That this House requires the Electoral Matters Committee to inquire, consider and report no later than 30 April 2009 on —
    (1) whether the Electoral Act 2002 should be amended to create a system of political donations disclosure and/or restrictions on political donations; and
    (2) the outcome resulting from similar legislative reforms introduced in Canada, the United Kingdom and other relevant jurisdictions.

  31. I just got Newspolled for the first time ever!

    They asked extended questions on the Liberal leadership.

    They asked who do you think would make the best leader, out of:
    Nelson, Bishop, Costello, Turnbull

    They also asked who would make the best leadership “team” out of:

    Nelson / Bishop, Costello / Turnbull, Turnbull / Robb

    They also asked who would be “Best at handling the Australian economy”
    Turnbull or Swan

    I didn’t bother to explain to them that the treasurer doesn’t actually handle the economy, our economy works by markets.

    Apart from that it seems they were doing market research for BHP-Billiton, the private health insurance industry, and internet job search services.

  32. It’s hard to say which is the more unreliable source for accurate polling for Gippsland, the Herals-Sun or the ALP. When I lived there briefly in the 70s, 25% was a good result for Labor.

  33. I’ve added an update to note the contributions of Greg Barber (who to those not familiar with him is a Victorian Greens state MP) and ShowsOn’s intelligence on the next Newspoll.

  34. 35 John, last I saw the QEC had decided that due to the council elections taking more time than planned, the Queensland redistribution is now due in mid May.


    “Mr Truss says he does not expect much to come out of the summit for regional Australia.

    “It’s all very well to assemble a thousand people with great ideas; what’s most important is to determine what are the good ideas and which ones won’t work, and that’s a political process and I don’t think the Rudd Government’s up to it,” he said.”

    Something is seriously wrong at coalition HQ. They have, and continue to, brand themselves as negative to the entire process and any possible outcomes of the 2020 summit. I just cannot imagine the low intelligence idiot who thinks that’s a good strategy. They have made themselves totally reliant on the event being a complete failure for there to be any political gain for them whatsoever.
    They may be right, but nailing yourself to one side of the fence was/is never going to be good political strategy.
    I’ve said it before; there’s certainly no chess players amongst them. They need to go and buy a copy of ‘politics for dummies’ from their local book store.
    what the hell is wrong with the tried and true “we’ll be watching closely and reserve our judgement…”?

  36. Regarding Gippsland, I know Maffra played a large part in Kennett’s downfall. They had a 16% swing to the independent. Craig Ingram. This was caused by the selling off of the Water Commission. Maffra is only ten minutes from Sale and Nambrok, which is the McGauren’s home town. A lot of locals are still angry about this.

  37. Onimod,

    If i were from the country, I would be insulted by Truss’s comments. Sure you are supposed to oppose the government, but remember the rural part of 2020 is being chaired by one of your own. These people only want what is best for Rural Australia. Us in the city don’t want to hate them, but with Truss and co. the example for Rural Australia, if they don’t want any help. Fine. Let you communitees die. Just don’t cry poor because you didn’t help your communitees prosper

  38. You wonder if country people are happy being led by the National Party’s chronic negativity. No wonder so many young people leave the bush. Can’t blame them.

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