Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Morgan has released two sets of federal poll results: a mid-week phone poll of 765 respondents, and a face-to-face poll of 897 respondents conducted last weekened. Morgan has gone against normal practice by using “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” for the headline two-party measure for the phone poll, which puts Labor’s lead at 64-36. The more reliable “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” has it at 62.5-37.5, down from 63.5-36.5 last week. The face-to-face poll has it at 62-38, the same as the previous such poll conducted a fortnight ago.

Other news:

• The main starters are in place for the Gippsland by-election. The Nationals have nominated Darren Chester, staffer to state party leader Peter Ryan; Labor has nominated Wellington Shire mayor Darren McCubbin; and the Liberal candidate is Central Gippsland Health Service bureaucrat Rohan Fitzgerald. Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun reports Labor internal polling has them on 36 per cent to the Nationals’ 32 per cent and the Liberals’ 19 per cent, which after preferences would mean a comfortable win for the Nationals.

• On Monday, The West Australian published a Westpoll survey of 406 voters concerning federal voting intention in Western Australia, which had Labor leading 62-38 – a 16 per cent turn-around from the federal election. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Costello on 19 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull on 18 per cent, local hero Julie Bishop on 17 per cent, Brendan Nelson on 12 per cent and Joe Hockey on 11 per cent. The survey also gauged support on a republic, finding 51 per cent support against 33 per cent outright opposition, with 70 per cent supporting a referendum on the matter to coincide with the next election (leaving aside the small matter of the model being proposed).

• Norm Kelly, member of the Australian National University’s Democratic Audit and former Western Australian Democrats state MP, peruses the government’s recently announced package of electoral reforms and finds fault with the move to tie public campaign funding to verified expenditure (clearly introduced to prevent a repeat of Pauline Hanson’s $200,000-plus windfalls from her recent Senate campaigns), which he says will disadvantage minor parties in its proposed form.

• Radio National’s The National Interest program had an interesting item recently on campaign funding laws in New York City and Canada. The practice of the former makes it very hard to understand why donations for last year’s federal election won’t be disclosed until February next year (to the extent that they still need to be disclosed at all, following the Howard government’s disgraceful 2006 “reforms”).

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is inviting submissions for its inquiry into the 2007 federal election, which will be received until Friday, May 16.

• I have just had to cough up $400 for annual site hosting, so now would be a good time for those who like to make the occasional donation.

UPDATE: Victorian Greens upper house MP Greg Barber drops by in comments to plug a parliamentary inquiry into the state’s donation disclosure laws. Reader ShowsOn tells us he has been Newspoll-ed, and that we can expect Tuesday’s poll to feature responses on who would make the best Liberal leader out of Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull; who would make the best leadership team out of Nelson/Bishop, Costello/Turnbull and Turnbull/Andrew Robb; and who out of Turnbull and Wayne Swan would be best at handling the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  1. Glen at 233, if you hadnt previously lost the plot (and am happy to debate that one) you have now. You’re saying you dont care about Newspoll? I’d say your side better take pretty good notice of those god awful numbers if they want to try to shift them.

    Your ridiculous diatribe against the summit proves what a good idea it was and how much it gets under the torie skin when there is a popular PM and it’s not theirs!!

  4. 302
    Chris B Says:
    Here we go, John Roskam told ABC radio’s The World Today program that the summit was a blatantly political exercise.

    But the ABC is a permanently left wing dominated insitution, just like all the other institutions in our society. Didn’t you get the talking point memo?

  9. Every time they use comments form the IPA they should preface it with ‘liberal party support group’ so all can filter their views appropriately.

    But the silly ABC and the Madam of the ‘thought police’ are getting it wrong again.

    Putting criticism of the 2020 summit up front all day on the news and web site is only keeping the affair in front of the public eye where it is most likely viewed in an apolitical way, and probably positive at that. The got it wrong if they thought they were turning a positive into a negative.

  10. Turnbull has the nack of putting hoof in mouth whenever he tries to be smart.

    Fresh from trying to belittle/criticise the Head of Treasury and the RBA board and referring to inflation as fantasy, he again from the USA, criticised Swan for crying wolf on inflation. He reckons the RBA should not have put up rates in January and so on, that it is really all under control.

    No sooner than the Bullhead has opened his mouth than we see this:

    Higher producer price index figures to fuel inflation
    Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show higher construction, food, petrol and utility costs have pushed the country’s Producer Price Index (PPI) up by its biggest quarterly increase in 10 years.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/21/2223025.htm

    Hoof in Mouth cant take a trick. Whatever he says tends to be the opposite of reality.

  11. Glen @ 247 says:
    “Basil Fawlty – over my dead body! It’s bad enough that we may become a Republic but to change our flag would be a complete and utter disgrace throwing away all our history so that elitists like you can have the Union Jack off our flag”

    Glen. Not necessarily over your dead body old chap, but if you insist. This elitist is happy to oblige any recalcitrant right winger in such matters 🙂

  12. Seriously, I do have some sneaking reluctant admiration for Glen. He has got guts to come in here day after day and act as our whipping boy, as frustrating as he can be at times. Unlike some of the other tory mouthpieces such as Tabitha and GP et al he perseveres against all odds.

  13. In Sybils best voice, “BASIL leave that elitist word alone. You’ll only start Glen off again”. Now go and whack Manuel.

  16. Glen, whose history are we referring to here? Is it the history of our First People, the Greeks, Italians, Croats, Chinese, Vietnamese etc who came to our country and helped to build it, where does the Union Jack relate to them. My ancestors were Anglo-Celtic and many of them were early pioneers (1820’s) but I am not so narcissistic as to believe that only my ‘history’ represents Australia.

    I for one am very proud of my Scottish forebears, but see no real relevance in a symbol of the Union dating back to the 1600’s, in fact to me it represents a reminder of the oppression of the Scots by the English in order to achieve it. Time to move on and adopt the Eureka flag, the real symbol of Australia, then I will be proud of it.

  18. Kina Says: @ 309,

    [Putting criticism of the 2020 summit up front all day on the news and web site is only keeping the affair in front of the public eye where it is most likely viewed in an apolitical way, and probably positive at that. The got it wrong if they thought they were turning a positive into a negative.]

    Shussss. Don’t tip the stupid beggars off. It’s been such an enjoyable experience watching them squirm every time they put forward another “top class”, winning formula, negative, intending to bring down Rudd, Gillard, Garrett etc and the polls just continue to climb.

    Watching them try to gain traction by continually sprouting forth negatives that they think will bring home the bacon is like watching a continual flight of flying, pink pigs passing by overhead away from the proliteriate, calmly going about their business below.

  20. This is what the RWDC’s were up to during the 2020 summit. Unashamedly plagiarised from Biolter’s Blog, courtesy of Blogocracy.

    [Rudd Lingo

    Ruddspeak – An endless stream of jargon and clichés in two different languages
    Ruddfuscation – The art of totally confusing the listener by using Ruddspeak
    Ruddled – The way you feel after being subjected to a string of Ruddfuscation filled with Ruddspeak
    Rudded – Where Australia is right now
    Ruddstock – A talkfest of celebrities, Ruddites and wannabes telling Rudd what he wants to hear
    Rudderless – What once was considered a state of confusion but now is considered to be significantly better state than being Rudded.
    Ruddless – What we will again be one day we hope
    Ruddfest – A gaggle of reporters interviewing Rudd
    Ruddite – An Australian voter who is still in love with Rudd after 100 days of being Rudded by Ruddspeak and Ruddfuscation
    Ruddage – What is produced by a Ruddstock
    Rudditorial – A supposedly independent piece of journalism written by a reporter who has been overcome by Ruddspeak and Ruddfuscation at a Ruddfest
    Ruddoration – The adoration and acclaim attributed to Rudd by Ruddites
    Krudd – What the average Australian thinks of Ruddspeak
    Ruddtopia – The place Ruddites believe Rudd will take them to if they bestow sufficient Rudderation
    Ruddicism – A word that has lost its real meaning as a result of repeated inclusion in utterances of Ruddspeak eg. target
    Ruddister – A Rudd appointed minister of government seemingly, but not necessarily, a Ruddite
    Ruddflip – An adroit policy backflip that when announced in Ruddspeak, clouded by Ruddfuscation, and discussed in Rudditorials comes to be seen as nothing more than Ruddage. Often results in the public feeling Ruddled.
    Ruddotistical – Considering oneself equal to Rudd
    Ruddmania – The hysteria created by a gaggle of Ruddites expressing Ruddoration. Prominent in the Australian press over recent times.

    Tony (Reply)
    Sun 20 Apr 08 (11:10pm)

    http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/rudd_raters/#commentsmore

  21. 318 Scorpio, agree totally, just heard Dolly mincing on the crystal set about what a waste of time blahdeblah. They are just sooooo yesterday, so absolutely f****** irrelevant to anything, dead in the water!

  22. One of Lord Lunchalot’s daughters who lives in his Canberra house has apparently been looking for new digs and there are unconfirmed reports that the house is on the market so standby for an announcement.

    Lets all pray to the media gods that we never have to hear his ‘dulcet’ tones again once he’s buggered off!

  24. My condolences to you MayoFeral for to endure Lord Lunchalot for so long. I just hope the pain will eases soon as this “prize boofhead” ride off into the sunst! 8)

  27. No matter what you think of the 20-20 summit you have to admit it is better than the usual political game at this time of year.

    Next week or maybe later this week it will be back to budget speculation. But Rudd has a thousand or so opinion leaders feeling all warm and fuzzy after their Ra Ra session.

    Brendan snookered again. 😛

  28. I’ve got to laugh when the current opposition to Rudd consists of Brendan Nelson, Dolly Downer and David Flint: nothing says yesterday quite like those 3!
    Is there a new Newspoll tomorrow in the Australian? How low will Brendan go this time?

  32. And what sort of left wing governments are they in South America?
    Other than Venezeula and Bolivia i think all the others are Pseudo Left governments, similar to Australia.

  33. [Is there a new Newspoll tomorrow in the Australian? How low will Brendan go this time?]

    There should be, I was polled on Saturday.

  34. Read in the papers that on economic committee at the summit the people pushing for tax reform or actually tax cuts were the business leaders and tax cuts for whom. Yep you guessed it themselves. Already over the last five years experiencing massive wage rises well above inflation our CEO’s want tax reform and as usual it seems the government has swallowed the bait.

  35. [Already over the last five years experiencing massive wage rises well above inflation our CEO’s want tax reform and as usual it seems the government has swallowed the bait.]

    They should be offered a deal, cut the top income tax rate, as long as they accept a commensurate increase in the business tax rate.

  37. Just because Business leaders etc put tax reform forward it does not mean they will get any reduction. My understanding from what Rudd, Swan have said in the past is that the emphasis is on other areas for tax benefits as it makes it worthwhile for them to work, including overtime. This will help ecoonomy with labour shortages and skill shortages.

  38. [They should be offered a deal, cut the top income tax rate, as long as they accept a commensurate increase in the business tax rate.]

    That’s probably not the smart way to go. It makes more sense to cut the corporate tax rate (say to 25%) and progressively lower personal income tax rates over time.

    Doing this means that overseas businesses will be more attracted to invest in Australian and/or establish a presence here. And more overseas investment invariably leads to more Australian jobs and higher GDP growth…

  39. The northern countries are more hard left than the southern. Nicaragua is the sandinstas again. That is hard left, that Ronald Reguns (mr. what’s this red button for)? The Alzheimer president. Spent millions illegally fighting against.

  42. Just saw the bloke on the 7.30 Report in addition to Eddixender. There couldn’t be a more stark contrast. The bloke is articulate, coherent, speaks to the question, says when he doesn’t know or needs to do more work to speak to whatever the question is, and then there’s Eddixender, frothing at the mouth at the temerity of the Australian population wanting an Australian head of state, and spouting the talking points from LP headquarters. I reckon Newspoll will be awful for the LNP, say somewhere between 58 to 60 TPP to Labor.
    Whaddya think about calling Rudd “the bloke”? Got to better than some of the garbage that’s been going around.

  43. And probably why the US is in so much trouble now and at the end of the Reaganomics era. Remember Clinton’s its the economy stupid. Reganomics got him there.

  44. Chris B,

    The fastest growing countries in Europe are those with low corporate tax rates (think Ireland, Estonia, etc). They lowered their tax rates in order to grow as fast as possible.

    Meanwhile, the European countries with the lowest growth rates are (for the most part) those with higher taxes (although I concede the Scandinavian countries defy this – still don’t know why). That’s why most of the EU have growth expectations with a 0 or 1 in front of it…

  45. Ah yes, Chris B. who’d want to be POTUS? Have been reading other threads with interest, but am buggered if I can figure out what any of them think they can do with an almost basket case economy. It’s almost like Battlestar Galactica. For those not into this series, basically, humans create AI robots, the robots evolve and revolt, and wage war on humans because we’re so evil. Unfortunately, in trying to wipe out the evil humans, the AI robots do exactly the same. Sound familiar?

  49. Spot on Chris B, taxes are higher in many of the scandanivan countries and what kind of economies do they have- very good quality of life, social programs (welfare), health and education systems. Companies such as Scania, Volvo, Sony Ericsson, Ericsson, Phillips and Nokia… Now what does Australia have which is comparable answers please?
    Just on taxes, are our tax levels to high? No
    No and this answers it http://www.ato.gov.au/budget/2007-08/bp1/html/bp1_bst5-10.htm
    And people carrying on about our petrol prices, we are low here as well.
    The argument about efficiency and competivetness is a nonsense, put simply it should be about creating a better country and not speculation which is what many of rich and business people have been doing.

  50. Thatcher is another one who cut taxes for the rich. Remember Thatcherism? Britain’s version of Reganomics. What a mess they got into. Hence Blair.

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