Morgan: 61-39

Unless I’m mistaken, it looks like Roy Morgan has just unloaded two sets of poll results at once: a phone poll of 1128 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a face-to-face poll of 2019 respondents conducted over the previous two weekends. The former has Labor’s two-party lead at 61-39, while the latter has it at 65-35: wider even than the 64.5-35.5 recorded in the previous published (face-to-face) survey from February 29, and probably some kind of all-time record for any agency.

In other news, the new membership of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has been announced. The spoils are divided thus: Labor gets three MHRs (Daryl Melham, Michael Danby and Jon Sullivan) and two Senators (Carol Brown and Steve Hutchins), the Coalition gets two of each (Scott Morrison and the Nationals’ Bruce Scott from the House, Simon Birmingham and Mitch Fifield from the Senate), and one is determined by the Senate cross-benchers, which effectively means the Greens (with Bob Brown replacing Andrew Murray of the Democrats). It has evidently yet to be announced which of the Labor members will be the chair: previously the position was held by Sophie Mirabella. The only ongoing member from the previous parliament is Michael Danby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

256 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  3. since 1998 the board of the ABC has been swamped with Coalition insiders such as Michael Kroger, harsh critic of supposed ABC bias and close political ally of Peter Costello; former Federal Liberal MP Ross McLean; Judith Sloan, a conservative economist with links to the CIS and the HR Nicholls Society; Leith Boully, a former Young Country Liberal Party member; and Maurice Newman, reportedly a ‘close confidant’ of Prime Minister. Other appointments have included conservative anthropologist, greenhouse skeptic and ex-News-Ltd columnist Ron Brunton, best known for his work attempting to debunk the claims of the ‘Stolen Generations’ of Aboriginal children; News Ltd columnist and staunch-ABC-critic Janet Albrechtsen; CIS director Steven Skala; conservative QC John Gallagher; and Keith Windschuttle, a regular contributor to and now editor of the conservative journal Quadrant

    http://www.newmatilda.com/node/2600?ArticleID=2600&HomepageID=231

  4. 102 -exactly Rx The ABC Board is the neo-con centre of australia. And like the rest of their colleagues they face certain demise – just want to know how much longer.? My guess is they will dig in to their bunker and make an even more concerted effort to memorialise thier hero JWH in a last ditch attempt to control the public media.

  5. “EC. Usually your posts are OK but that last one ….man! Where you on the turps last night? Maybe it just went over my head!”

    No worries, Aussie G, you can stop looking up now lest you become un-necessary fodder for the musculo-skeletal professions.

  7. My guess is they will dig in to their bunker and make an even more concerted effort to memorialise thier hero JWH in a last ditch attempt to control the public media.

    When Howard won in 96 the ABC showed a documentary “Whitlam” that from memory consisted of a long interview with Whitlam going over his reforms, his government and what he achieved and hoped to achieve.

    Howard was absolutely furious that such a program was shown so soon just after his win and the readjustment of the ABC probably started from this date.

    However, I wonder if we will see the ABC do a similar interview with Howard.

  9. William, just noticed the addition of Tin-Tin and Tin-Tinette to the Bludger’s header-shots but they are so frightfully out of focus.

    Best election night shot I could get unfortunately. Anyone have a better one?

  16. Andrew

    It’s a well known fact in Turnbull’s inner circle that his ambition is to be the first President of “The Republic of Australia”…I kid you not.

  17. When your so called star performer (Turnbull) behaves like this you know you’re in trouble. Swan will have a field day.

  18. What is Turnbull playing at? Are his lies just attempts at getting media attention? If they are, and its all part of a grand plan of proving why he should be leader of the opposition, then he is going about it the wrong way.

    Or does Turnbull think that he can get away with lies and obfuscation because Howard got away with it for so many years?

    Turnbull must think Australians are idiots.

    One thing is for sure, Nelson would be resting a bit easier now that Turnbull has made himself look like such an ignorant fool.

  19. Fullabull

    Laughabull

    Disreputabull

    Unfukabull

    Unadmirabull

    Twistabull

    Every noy and then Shamiam has a story buried deep in the bowels of the OO.

    It must feel like having a haemaroid removal for him to actually write something that promotes Labor above his beloved Libretards

    “Swanny finally wings his tormentor”

    Tip fair slunk back in his seat when the camera panned to him. Took the bait nice when Swanny said “we are the Jobs party”.

    Puts his hand up to claim the job figures with his smirk.
    Slunk back under his desk when Swanny said what about the rest put your hand up for inflation…………..etc.

    Swanny should have broke out in song

    “you cant have one without the other”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23372088-5013871,00.html

  29. vera Says:
    March 15th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
    Thanks William for adding Kev & Terese up top. Just a suggestion but could they have the divine light behind them like Gough has?

    Post of the week!!

    Tom

  30. I wouldn’t mind betting the government set up Turnbull. That bloke is as predictable as night following day. If anyone was going to take a bait he was it.

  34. On the Qld local govt. elections. I just voted and Cate Malloy looked like she was about to slit her wrists.

    Big Bob Abbott looks like he will get the “poisoned chalice” on the Sunshine Coast. Poor fool.

  35. William

    On your masthead, Margaret should be with Gough, because he would not be Gough without Margaret as he has acknowledged. I think he called her “His greatest decision” or something like that. The It’s Time picture is good so maybe you or another pollbludger can photoshop her in.

  38. Very entertaining, Gaffhook. I think he’d be particularly miffed by unfukabull. Why do I experience no surprise at all at your news, Ogmios, that the great one fancies himself President?
    Jen, I understand that the various ABC Board members have contracts that will run out at different points in time, so a form of the current Board is with us for some time, including Helen Coonan’s budgie!

  41. Well done to Possium.

    I may be wrong for I might be misreading it but was Kim unlucky or what for it seems that he was rolled not once but twice just as the ALP were improving their numbers.

    I don’t know if anyone else did it but I sat back turned up the radio gosh that whoosing sound was good.

  46. Frank @ 145,

    Milnes a dill (that’s right up there with the headline “Strange Man on Public Transport”!).

    The unemployment drop didn’t put further rate rises back on the agenda of anyone with two neurons to rub together.Unemployment is laggy – changes in unemployment from quarter to quarter are the least important of any macroeconomic variable because they’re rear view mirror economics.It tells you where you’ve been last month based on where you were going 3 to 6 months before that.

    And here is something for the man with the croissant hair do to ponder – the government not making a recommendation on the minimum wage is a long planned decision to make that part of macroeconomic decision making as independent as the RBA is on monetary policy. It removes the political fallout from minimum wage decisions, whilst still letting the government have their say, vicariously if need be via the labour movement, by feeding them the data and government privy arguments they need to shore up their lower end minimum wage proposal (since the unions always go for an ambit upper end claim anyway – just like the ACCI always go for an ambit lower end claim).

    It shits me to tears when piffle like Milne’s is passed off as Deep Thought. He must be missing All Tip being in government feeding him horsefluff.

  49. Frank Calabrese @ 143 – So what’s Nelson saying, that the Coalition’s SES funding model for private schools is seriously flawed and deliberately disadvantaged some of them? Is he, as a former education minister, admitting that he did the dirty on the schools on his “hit list”?

    LOL. Life gets curiouser and curiouser!

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