Morgan: 61-39

Unless I’m mistaken, it looks like Roy Morgan has just unloaded two sets of poll results at once: a phone poll of 1128 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a face-to-face poll of 2019 respondents conducted over the previous two weekends. The former has Labor’s two-party lead at 61-39, while the latter has it at 65-35: wider even than the 64.5-35.5 recorded in the previous published (face-to-face) survey from February 29, and probably some kind of all-time record for any agency.

In other news, the new membership of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has been announced. The spoils are divided thus: Labor gets three MHRs (Daryl Melham, Michael Danby and Jon Sullivan) and two Senators (Carol Brown and Steve Hutchins), the Coalition gets two of each (Scott Morrison and the Nationals’ Bruce Scott from the House, Simon Birmingham and Mitch Fifield from the Senate), and one is determined by the Senate cross-benchers, which effectively means the Greens (with Bob Brown replacing Andrew Murray of the Democrats). It has evidently yet to be announced which of the Labor members will be the chair: previously the position was held by Sophie Mirabella. The only ongoing member from the previous parliament is Michael Danby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

256 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Ah, so the honeymoon is over.

    What next for Labor? A mere 60%?

    Call the undertakers. Rudd’s gone. His reputation’s in tatters.

    I see motor-mouth Turnbull has been skewered by Treasury. The smiles won’t all be on one side of politics.

    Brendan forever!

  2. Shanahahahanahan and the other respected journos at the OO must be flumoxed by this.
    Why aren’t the public doing what they’re told?
    I keep reminding people, it’s not Rudd’s honeymoon anymore, it’s Brendan’s.

  3. The narrowing, at last.

    An ominous sign for the LNP is that Gillard is actually improving on her already great performances. She looked very much like a Prime Minster on the 7.30 report the other night.

  4. Oops, another failed Rudd-bashing exercise. Who would have thought, eh? Shanahan and his friends at the OO, and all their pro-Lib counterparts, won’t be too happy, especially if Newspoll fails to show a decent bounce for the Coalition.

    Maybe Shanahan will have to go back to his old tricks of trying to spin a Coalition bounce out of a two point change in voting intentions.

  5. Fred, in the case of Soapie M, it means that you don’t have some of your dodgy looking donations investigated very deeply.

  6. “….wider even than the 64.5-35.5 recorded in the previous published (face-to-face) survey from February 29, and probably some kind of all-time record for any agency. ”

    You wouldn’t get that from Roy’s headline:
    “ALP support down following ‘carers announcement’ – Big fall in ‘heading in the right direction'”

    Doom! Gloom!

  7. It seems we are to keep the baby bonus too. The government has been forced into the denial trap before the budget by the carers and seniors bonuses fiasco. Testing the water opens up a can of worms and other mixed metaphors. Every interest group and every journo will get on the denial wagon.

  8. 3
    I was so impressed with Julia on the 7.30 report. Honestly, if I were going in to battle I’d want to be right by her side as that would be the safest place to be. She is a tough cookie but so fair and reasonable. I’d follow her through the valley of death if need be.

    PM material? You betcha!

  9. Howard booby-trapped the economy with these blatant billion dollar handouts and treasurers now and in the future will be hamstrung.
    He deservedly suffered the ignominy of crushing defeat at two levels last year – but his odious legacy lingers.

  10. Gee Julia didn’t miss a beat did she?
    Smooth, charming, on the ball, informed, authoritive she ‘s got the lot.
    I remember some being worried about her being overloaded with her multi-faceted portfolios but absolutely no sign of that at all. This is one very very competent and caring future PM.
    I particularly liked this point:
    ” phasing out full fee paying places for domestic students.”

    Good idea.

  11. I doubt the chair will be Mr Danby as he is currently the chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Migration. Senator Hutchins is chair of the Joint Statutory Committee for the Australian Crime Commission.

  12. What’s a bet OO’s next Newspoll will be conducted in the middle of the day in hopes of getting all pensioner and cares and no workers.

  13. [What’s a bet OO’s next Newspoll will be conducted in the middle of the day in hopes of getting all pensioner and cares and no workers.]

    Or call ONLY pensioners and Carers, considering Newspoll has at it’s disposal the demographic details of people they call.

  14. [It seems we are to keep the baby bonus too]
    Yes Rudd said that was an election promise.

    I think the problem for Rudd may be the additional revenues. Everyone will be screaming for it.

    As for sham-I-am we already know the only type of stuff that comes from an Orifice.

    Otherwise it will be interesting to track the fall of Rudd’s TPP and personal approval as it returns to normal values. Hope he remembers to get his other Minsters out in front as well and reveal the depth of the team.

  15. Will says 65% could be an all time reccord poll result for an agency.

    The Poll actualy came out at 65.5% based on what the participants answered.

    The 65% is based on preference distribution of the last election.

  16. I believe that the Rudd government maybe able to solidify a long term higher than usual rating by bringing out and exposing the rest of the team on a regular basis. Pilbersek, Gillard of course, Smith, Tanner, Wong etc have all got a good solid and controlled look about them.

    I do believe Rudd now needs to be more firm and direct he talks and, needs to refer to the Opposition as the Opposition and not by name otherwise he inadvertanly raises an individuals profile.

  17. Don’t forget that when you paste a link to Sham-i-am’s blog and someone follows it, he gets paid an incentive. Do you really want to reward the toad that much?

  18. I don’t think they get any money unless you click on one of the ads. But seeing they use Google Ad Words they probably also use Google Analytics.

    So if you you click on a link on pollbludger to get to the OO site, they know for sure where you came from.

    I am sure this drives their stories. They are not that dumb. 🙂

  19. Wasn’t Sham- I-am telling us how economically irresponsible it was of Rudd to “cave in” to the carers and pensioners? Now he wants to hit Rudd over the head for even thinking about it in the first place. Go figure.

  20. Sad News.

    [Former Whitlam government minister Clyde Cameron, has died, aged 95.

    From the shearing shed, to the union office, to Gough Whitlam’s front bench, Clyde Cameron’s career as an ALP hard man was cemented early on.

    Born in Murray Bridge, South Australia, in 1913, the one-time shearer ascended through the ranks of the Australian Workers’ Union before being elected to the federal seat of Hindmarsh in 1949.

    He sat on the opposition benches from 1953 to 1972, before becoming the minister for labour, immigration and consumer affairs in the Whitlam government. ]

  21. Turnbull came in for quite a hit from Laurie Oakes on Channel Nine (Adelaide) news tonight. Hope this was shown right around the country.

  22. Did anyone else hear Turnbull (we’ve got to come with a better moniker for him – Allbull?) on PM this pm? What a prat! Even after he was confronted with Henry’s statement that Treasury had not told the gov’t to name a figure in the submission to the Fair Pay Commission, he launched into a demand that the gov’t should release all of Treasury’s advice to the gov’t on the matter. As if. Opposition is going to be sooo painful.
    Ruawake, I’ve decided to simply ignore the OO unless someone else, probably here, thinks something George M had to say was worth reading, thus dodging any tracking.
    Seriously, I think something has to be done about the ABC. The online news today had 3 negative Rudd stories running at all times during the day, with constant oxygen being given to the Opposition.

  23. [Turnbull came in for quite a hit from Laurie Oakes on Channel Nine (Adelaide) news tonight. Hope this was shown right around the country.]

    Channel 10 also gave Allbull a king hit by mentioning that they saw the Treasury Advice and saw no mention of any figure.

  24. Frank C. Also agree sad to hear of Clyde Cameron’s final exit stage left. Remember him well and fondly from the Whitlam years. Who will remember the ex PM, ex Member for Bennelong well and fondly? I reckon the % of people who prefer Brendon for PM.

  25. ruawake, who is Johnny Croll? This may be revealing deep levels of lack of needed and essential knowledge, but hell, I’m ready to take the plunge.

  26. Actually, on a slightly more serious note, if Rudd’s response to the carer’s bonus has, as Rudd would probably say, take a bit of paint off, does this explain, in any way the difference in these polls in terms of timing?

  27. Opps, missed the shameless plug at 25.

    Yeah, I like it, Monica. Malcolm Allbull. Mind you, after fashion god, Studless Nelson, was forced to whip it out of his lug hole after Hyacinth got ministerially house-proud in a previous dynasty, there’s a good case to be made for the nouveau opposition’s, Mallee Allbull, to have a nose ring inserted.

    They could use a bit of political chic at the moment; they can’t seem to take a trick since the polls have banished them to psephological Siberia!

  28. [Turnbull came in for quite a hit from Laurie Oakes on Channel Nine (Adelaide) news tonight. Hope this was shown right around the country.]

    Turnbull needs to apologise for inventing facts then when confronted with it by Ken Henry then basically implying Henry is a liar. Where is the Sham-I-am!

    Another little porky was when Turnbull said the LNP had only once not recommended a figure – the truth is Howard didn’t recommend a figure on the last two occasions. A little lie to boost his argument.

    Turnbull seems to developing a habit of fudging, denying or misrepresenting the facts. I guess in the boardroom he could get away with it as no one would be following up the actual full truth of a statement. Wont work in the world of politics. We saw how pedantic the media was on Rudd on the tax scales etc when he was campaigning – Turnbull would get crucified each day.

    Rudd and Co would have picked up on this weakness of Turnbull’s.

    I think Turnbull, like they said in parliament, is trying to put in a job application for Opposition Leader.

    Rudd should suggest Turnbull apologise to Treasury for undermining its integrity.

  29. John Croll is MD of Media Monitors, son of Richard Croll an old school journo and the person who started media training for pollies and execs in Australia.

    He had a studio in Crows Nest – opposite the Crowy Hotel. When someone had a tricky interview he would grill and coach them before they went on TV.

    How do I know, I used to work for him. 🙂

  30. Turnbull’s trouble with the truth and facts may be habitual.

    Don’t think he can do this type of thing much longer without getting a reputation.

    Treasury, RBA smack down Turnbull claims
    Friday Mar 14 18:14 AEDT

    “These claims are false.

    “Rather, the treasury recommended that the Australian government submission to the AFPC support an increase in minimum wages without recommending a specific quantum of minimum wage increase.”

    It was his second rebuff of the day, after Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens released a speech smacking down Mr Turnbull’s argument that inflation was not a major economic problem.

  31. Lots-a-bull(TM):
    I think it’s just woeful that the current leader and treasurer are both ex-labour.
    Is Lots-a-bull(TM) still holding a grudge for Keating telling him to piss off?
    If that’s his motivation for being in there he ain’t gonna make it.

    His man management skills are just great; I mean if he became the Treasurer tomorrow just imagine the relationship with the department?
    What’s the American expression – “all hat”

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