Morgan: 61-39

Unless I’m mistaken, it looks like Roy Morgan has just unloaded two sets of poll results at once: a phone poll of 1128 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a face-to-face poll of 2019 respondents conducted over the previous two weekends. The former has Labor’s two-party lead at 61-39, while the latter has it at 65-35: wider even than the 64.5-35.5 recorded in the previous published (face-to-face) survey from February 29, and probably some kind of all-time record for any agency.

In other news, the new membership of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has been announced. The spoils are divided thus: Labor gets three MHRs (Daryl Melham, Michael Danby and Jon Sullivan) and two Senators (Carol Brown and Steve Hutchins), the Coalition gets two of each (Scott Morrison and the Nationals’ Bruce Scott from the House, Simon Birmingham and Mitch Fifield from the Senate), and one is determined by the Senate cross-benchers, which effectively means the Greens (with Bob Brown replacing Andrew Murray of the Democrats). It has evidently yet to be announced which of the Labor members will be the chair: previously the position was held by Sophie Mirabella. The only ongoing member from the previous parliament is Michael Danby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

256 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  3. Does nayone really think this Turnbull gaff will make headline news tomorrow? I note that channel 9 Melboune had no coverage of Turnbull’s gaff.

  4. 51- Given Morgan’s story used to be face to face was better than phone polls, I wonder why not?

    39% of TPP is still extremely bad and anyone who attempts to see it as a postive for the Liberals are nuts.

  5. Morgan led with the phone poll – it’s their poll, so I’ve followed their lead. I suspect they made a snap decision to conduct the phone poll because they wanted to measure the impact of the carers allowance issue. A dedicated phone poll on voting intention is an expensive exercise, unlike face-to-face polling which is conducted in the course of their normal market research work, so I can understand why they would want to give it a bit more prominence. That and the fact that it’s more current.

  10. Gary B, I think a lot of us have concluded that the OO and the ABC are doing very biased things in terms of ‘reporting’. As I noted earlier, at least 3 negatively for the Rudd gov’t things were on the ABC online news, all day.
    Alballs Allballs? Though like E.C.’s suggestion.

  11. William, do you make anything out of the different results? Would have thought too many factors going on to make any sense of it, but could be, not for the first time, wrong.

  13. I’m puzzled as to why Lottabull actually said that Treasury had given the Govt. a number.
    What was his reason for making the claim?
    Did he not know what was in the Treasury recommendations?
    In which case he’s taking a helluva risk making a statement in ignorance.
    Hoping that no one would check or no one would notice or no one would contradict him as Don Henry did?
    Did he know what was in the Treasury recommendations and thus outright lie?
    And expect not be be exposed?
    Really if you didn’t know what was in a report would you loudly proclaim that a certain something WAS in it?
    What did he expect to happen?

    Really a very puzzling, and worrying, incident.
    It needs to be looked at very carefully.

  14. Fred I think Lottabull is so used to the way public servents were cowered under Howard that he didn’t expect to be challenged. Unusual step etc.
    “TREASURY secretary Ken Henry today took the unusual step of publicly denying opposition claims his department recommended an $18-a-week rise for low-paid workers.”

  16. Oh my god
    Virginia Trioli is going to serve the Lottabull up on a plate.
    Who is the first journo who will dare to print the simple fact:
    “Lottabull is a liar”
    Hahahaha – Ken Henry, a formerly unknown man in Australian politics, has a major credibility over the man who thinks he’s a future PM.
    If Lottabull makes one more cliam then it really si going to escalate into one or the other man having to resign. One of them is right – the other is wrong.

    What do you think about the idea that selective leaks are being let at the moment to see where the holes in the sieve are? what’s the chance Lottabull has jumped at a strategic shadow?
    Basic rules of journalism could have sorted it out for him here – more than one source please?

  17. 65
    following on from my comment at 66, what’s the chance that Mr Minchin indirectly fed the rumour, or the confirmation, to Lottabull.
    Seriously, it’s like a girls locker room over that side of politics at the moment.

  19. Yep, Rx, looking very good for the Opposition. Mesmerelda will no doubt be a sell out hit. Julia will crucify her, nicely.

  20. Onimod, Minchin might well have set Spinsbull up so as to evaporate his leadership aspirations for the time being, but the damage to Turnbull – a reputation as a fibber – might be lasting, especially if he keeps doing it. Not that it obviously troubles that side having an accomplished liar at the top, but it would probably not sit well with the public, the memory of Howard still being raw.

  21. fred @ 63: I gather in the boardrooms and with his juniors he could bluster, bull and invent any fact he liked..no one was going to pull him up on it.

    He did this sort of nonsense when he was talking about water and climate change, taking reality and stating the opposite such as the Howard govt being leaders on climate change or the like.

    He does this often, reverses reality….inflation is a problem so he thinks if he comes out boldly and says inflation is not the problem people think it is and, the same for the skills shortage that he could get away with it. This is simply bullying bluster that works with juniors he is probably used to having around him.

    I can just imagine Swan saying in parliament….’and this is a ‘Turnbull fact’ the sort of fact you have when you don’t want to check the facts.’

  22. William – Please do not feel that my comment was directed at you at all, it was more a criticism of past Morgan claims about face to face polling. I understand why you went with the headline you did.

    Keep up the fine work.

  24. HarrySO, It would be great to see Mesmerelda – “look deep into my eyes, this one and that one” – as leader. She would have a helluva problem assuring voters that she would not bring in WorkChoices Revisited, especially when goaded by Julia.

  26. [HarrySO, It would be great to see Mesmerelda – “look deep into my eyes, this one and that one” – as leader. She would have a helluva problem assuring voters that she would not bring in WorkChoices Revisited, especially when goaded by Julia.]

    I Wonder if it’s a plan by Minchin to make her leader so the Libs can hold their WA Vote and hope that it rubs off on Boozewell.

    WA voters have this thing about having a local as Federal Leader and the low WA vote for Labor was the fact that Beazley was Leader and a local boy.

  28. 71 “Turnbull Fact” is great
    With a little push it could become the replacement for the famous “non-core promise”
    I think a typical Gillard cavalier delivery would suit too.

  29. Sniggle & just laugh. Zoom’s Chief Turning Bull – what a cracker!
    Jeez, Frank C, it’s beginning to sound like Minchin, the Musical, but no one’s going to want to go to the show.

  31. HSO, I think it supports what I knew already – that the government is still at the height of its honeymoon period, but has suffered light damage from an issue that will quickly blow over.

  32. Hello. Back from a little trip to Melbourne.

    So fascinating to read the Australian and the Age, in full. Long time. A chance I would usually forgo. But what to do. Pass the time. It was free, which was almost worth it. Sort of think the Age is okay, but….

    The full Janet A. I spat. The rest of the publications of that day, not an article in the issue, which did not lean to the conservative. Israel included.

    And an important feature piece, the opinion against the notion of climate change, or not, in this case, delivered by a person of no greater consequence to world affairs, as the President of the Czech Republic.

    A reformed Communist, if I recollect. Which the article acknowledged. And appeared to esteem. So contrary. Socialists are okay if they are ‘new capitalists’ apparently.

    Not a word, of course, in favor of the Rudd Government.

  35. Thanks, William. I suppose one of the things I’ve learned from you psephy types is to take the long view. MOE and confidence I get. Possum’s pollercoaster is a hoot BTW. I’d be mostly in agreement, I think, with your proposition. So helpful, William.

  39. Crikey, the weather is crap, and the cat thinks so as well. We’re all just going to flake under the overhead fan, that’s himself indoors, the cat and moi, and toss around what’s the best name for Chief Turning Bull/ Allbull/ etc. Hope you and your gals get some sleep.

  40. Sheer luck, at the moment. A wind has arrived so I have opened the doors and windows of the small habitat. Sweeping out some ancient hot air. Bit like, really.

    But tomorrow, and the next and next days!

    How remarkable to find Melbourne’s coolest not air conditioned, place. Captain Cook’s Cottage. Taking the unappreciative eleven year old niece.

  41. LTEP #17 :

    I also would not expect Danby will chair this committee either, he is busy is his capacity of parliamentary secretary assisting the Minister for Foreign Affairs. Although I am sure he will continue to make a valuable contribution to the anticipated review on electoral matters.

    As an update the Australian Electoral Comission has indicated that it will be publishing the detailed below-the-line preference data files. In correspondence dated Feb 18, 2008 and forwarded to various members of Parliament Daryl Wright stated “The data for the half-Senate elections in all States and the Senate elections in both Territories is currently being prepared for publication
    on the AEC website. It is expected that the material will be posted to the
    website early in March….

    I fail to see why the delay, given that the federal election and data entry process was completed over 3 months ago the Below-the-line preference should have been published long ago as presumably this information will not require any further modification or additions.

    It’s now the middle of March and the AEC still has not honored its commitment and to date has not published the detailed Senate results.

    In regards to McEwen the ALP expects that the Court of disputed returns will most likely make a declaration in favour of the ALP candidate as opposed to calling for fresh elections. Whether this is hopeful thinking is still unknown but highly experienced scrutineers are of the opinion that the number of errors in the judgment of the ERO will see the court rule on the validity of a significant number of votes which should see the ALP over the line.

  42. isn’t it odd, or maybe not, that the ABC on-line have managed to have the same negatively presented story on Rudd most of the day on their current list and of course it specifically designed to tarnish the reputation Rudd rightfully has for caring for the needy.

    The real story however is about how Ken Henry of Treasury caught Turnbull out and how Turnbull after that implies Henry is liar.

    The ABC thought police at it again…oh how the poor little things must hurt, lashing out in this pathetic way whilst they still have jobs. Like the recalcitrant murderer still spitting venom as they are lead to execution.

    Those few hateful neocons know they are about to sink into absolute irrelevance for the next decade and more. Their beliefs, their thoughts their words and ideas rejected by Australians and by increasing numbers of the democratic world. They no longer belong anywhere in public life so much have their beliefs been rejected and thrown out.

    When the time comes for that little board to be evicted we can all dance on their grave. Surely they will then rush lustfully into the arms of their idol Howard, and shake their fist at the sky that their plan to enslave Australia was righteously destroyed at the last second – by an awoken people.

    They can flee to a dark little corner of the OO and their spit their spite and malice at all things not extreme right.

    What joy it is to know that WE won – they lost, they were rejected as unworthy. Their days of infecting the ABC wont last too much longer.

  43. William, just noticed the addition of Tin-Tin and Tin-Tinette to the Bludger’s header-shots but they are so frightfully out of focus. Just a minor aberration of the template, right?
    Alongside them, the ex-El Rodente is fair beaming and sharply focussed, whereas our new PM and his bride look like a couple of escaped extras from the set of The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari.

    http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Studio/7624/alltext/Caligari.html

    That’s the trouble with us commies, we whinge about everything.

  44. EC. Usually your posts are OK but that last one ….man! Where you on the turps last night? Maybe it just went over my head!

  46. “That’s the trouble with us commies, we whinge about everything.”

    EC, you should be following the sterling example set for us by the conservative side of politics. Their stiff upper lip, dignified acceptance of their relegation to the Opposition benches is only matched by the fair minded analysis of the journos at the Oz.

  47. I suppose to be fair to the ABC and the Australian, there does need to be an opposition, the trouble is where do we get the news while they are filling that role.

  49. That’s right. There’s been no hissy fits from Lexie, no wyning from Pyne, and just stolid good spirit from the Mad Monk. Impeccable, those Tories.

  50. William, good work updating the masthead, just one minor amendment now, I can still see parts of the rodent’s face, can you please adjust the letters so they totally obscure?

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