A couple of things

Three, actually:

• Malcolm Mackerras has told the Heidelberg and Diamond Valley Weekly he expects the Federal Court to order a by-election when it hears the McEwen appeal on March 20 (hat tip to commenter Unicorn). Mackerras states: “The ALP does not need to prove fraud, just that enough voters were disenfranchised by no fault of their own. The court is unlikely to simply kick Fran Bailey out though. A byelection is much more likely.” Which to my mind at least raises the question: if there has to be one by-election, why not several?

• The Rudd government has earned itself some Poll Bludger brownie points with its move to cut the threshold for public disclosure of political donations to $1000. The 2005 increase in this threshold from $1500 to $10,000 was as good a demonstration as any that the Howard government had run its course. The Prime Minister has also floated the possibility of a cap on donations, although I suspect he might lose his enthusiasm for this one in the fullness of time. I have been too busy to give these matters the attention they deserve, but Michelle Grattan provided an excellent overview in Saturday’s Age.

• A Galaxy poll in Sunday’s News Limited tabloids painted a depressingly familiar picture for Brendan Nelson, who was favoured as Liberal leader by just 9 per cent of the 400 respondents, against 24 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, 19 per cent for Peter Costello, 11 per cent for Julie Bishop and 9 per cent for Joe Hockey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

266 comments on “A couple of things”

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  1. I have to laugh when I read about the cut in the print allowance. Considering which MPs I used to steal printing from in my younger days.

    Possible McEwan by-election: If there is a byelection does the campaign costs get refunded?

  4. I did suggest to Labor sometime ago that if they did get into power that they establish a well funded independent peoples panel that reviews the honesty of media reporting which issues their own statements, reports.

    The problem with a political party is that it can’t complain that a media outlet is conspiring or bias or dishonest especially at election times. An independent and representative group can.

  5. GG@102

    People with disabilities have been conditioned not to rock the boat, or question authority.

    I’ve seen good people in various disability organisations been victimised and ostracised for speaking out against bad policy and mistreatment.

    And the Howard regime has made such complioance a fine art, so for them to come out as caring and compassionate is the height of hypocrisy.

  6. Royal commissions, investigations…the possibilities are many. AWB, Iraq, Cash for Visas, SIEVE X, the Ethanol affair, Defence purchases (and Peacocks role), Horse flue, Tampa again, future fund etc

  9. I reckon Kev should amend his budget to scrap any pension rises or assistance he was planning on giving to carers. let them have their hero howards bonus bribes and stuff the lot of the ungratefull pricks.
    The hypocrits! They scream blue murder demanding the govt to give them handouts but begrudge the lowest paid workers trying to survive and feed thier families, a tax cut!

  10. I doubt that the neocon gazette would ever report anything so truthfully unless it was in support of Mr Howard.

    The problem with media concentration of course is that lies, half truths and misrepresentations get spread nation-wide to an unthinking public.

    Peter Martin for Chief of News Ltd I say.

  11. Well, one thing that Labor should do is look at introducing legislation that promotes greater media diversity. The previous government sold out the better interests of this country when it legislated for LESS diversity, knowing full well that this meant more power for the likes of Murdoch and Packer who, incidentally, both favour the conservative side of politics.

  12. [I doubt that the neocon gazette would ever report anything so truthfully unless it was in support of Mr Howard.

    The problem with media concentration of course is that lies, half truths and misrepresentations get spread nation-wide to an unthinking public. ]

    And it’s worse here in WA with the West Australia, which is virtually a Liberal Party newsletter.

    [Peter Martin for Chief of News Ltd I say.]

    Hear Hear

  13. Question with byelections: From my understanding say a member resigns, they write a letter to the speaker, who then has the governor-general issue writs. Is it not possible for the speaker to spread out his requests to the GG to get the writs issued for different weekends? If so, might we not get a super Saturday even if the Liberals want one?

  14. Looks like the good times are over. It’s all downhill from here.

    [On Monday, there were clear signs Rudd’s honeymoon with the electorate was drawing to a close. For days, Labor, with its leader gladhanding overseas, had been wearing the fury of voters over its plans to scrap one-off payments to carers and seniors. }

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23360253-5013871,00.html

    Looks like the OO has decided to pull out all stops and gather all its forces for a full-on assault on Rudd’s 70% PPM rating.

    What we saw leading up to the election might be seen in retrospect to have been just a minor skirmish.

  16. Scorpio,

    The OO have been wrong every single time they have gone after Rudd. What evidence is there that this is any different?

    Don’t panic!

  17. I reckon a good starting point might be to change media rules to reduce the influence of foreigners. Perhaps that same foreign ownership limits that apply to Qantas and Telstra shares.

    And if that causes Rupert “$20 a barrel oil” Murdoch and his faithful columnists to squeal like stuck pigs, at least no one will be reading about it for long.

  18. Ahh Christian Kerr, who tried to fight the Good fight for Howard on Crikey, and has found his natural home on the OO.

    BTW, Kerr was a former Liberal Staffer.

  19. I guess it was too much to expect a murdoch owned paper to actually be a fair and balanced paper. It is a fading shrill voices of neocon thinking marking the end of an era. The OO is a dinosaur that wont let go of neocon belief and full of Os infected with the spite and jealousies of being so close Howard. Matt Price was one of the few decent people there.

    But I never forget that the most important thing of all was to save Australia from John Howard and his ugly cabinet, which Rudd achieved. The three year break should be a reset button and hopefully see Howardism die out, anything else Rudd achieves is a bonus.

  21. The OO had no effect on the election result. Hell, you have to have vast amounts of people reading it for that to happen and that they don’t have. This will be gone in no time and other issues will take over.

  22. It seems as though there is a common thread running right through nearly all the political commentary in the OO.

    They even have the hide to criticise other media outlets for not climbing on board with their Rudd and Labor bashing campaign.

    [Gullible media hacks can be spun like fairy floss

    IF he were inclined, Kevin Rudd could earn many times his prime ministerial salary as a world-class spinmeister. He would be hard pressed, though, to find a more naive and pliable audience than many of Australia’s political commentariat. Until Monday, the Prime Minister had been on the back foot for a few days. Carers had responded to suggestions the Government would chop their bonuses by quietly telling the moving, harrowing stories of their daily lives looking after sick, disabled and frail loved ones. Conscious that the “Brutopia” label he had plastered on John Howard might attach itself to him, Mr Rudd did the right thing – politically if not economically – reassuring carers their support would continue.

    Too savvy to allow headlines about the backdown to become the news of the day, he tossed the media a crumb about “scaring the living daylights” out of boozing teenagers. It wasn’t even fresh. On February 20, Mr Rudd drew wide coverage with his observation that “an epidemic of binge drinking across the country” was “not good for young people’s health”. It’s appalling, although hardly new, and shows why parents need to take control of their children when they’re young. The word “no” – and a responsible introduction to civilised drinking at home – would do more than any $53 million nanny state blitz.

    Like Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s hungry chooks, however, many of those paid to understand the complexities of national politics turned a snippet about “shock” advertisements into the issue of the day. Mr Rudd’s tactic was copybook “public relations 101”, deflecting attention from the harsher realities of budget planning. After less than four months in office, he showed himself a master, using an easier ploy than expelling 76 Soviet diplomats – Sir Humphrey Appleby’s standard ruse to kill off bad news stories in Yes, Prime Minister. Or perhaps MrRudd faces a more gullible media. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23359246-16382,00.html

    Strangely enough, there is no author accredited to this dribble.

  24. [122 Scorpio – hell, I thought I was reading Sham-I-am.]

    Probably is, but he’s too embarrased to be associated with such crap.

  25. I don’t remember these people complaining about the media when the media treated Howard like a god, particularly the GG (now the OO). Bloody hypocrites.

  26. And they wonder why circulation numbers are plumeting.

    Hell, there is only so much of this stuff that you can use to line the bottom of a budgie cage.

    This stuff is getting so rabid now, I would have grave concerns for the poor old budgie if it was exposed to it.

  30. I must say though I thought “Agenda” tonight was very even handed, inspit of Speers to to encourage Lewis and Koutsakis to can the government.

  32. What was sickening was watching Sky News showing the door stops of the Libs congratulating themselves. I wonder who was trying to make political capital out of all of this? Surely not the Libs.

  35. [From what I observed the main “exaggerators” were the OO, talkback radio and channel 7, with special mention to TT and ACA.]

    Plus The Today Show and the Daily Terrorgraph and their “Online Petition”

  36. Just saw this on a webpage as the Thought of the day

    “I don’t care what is written about me so long as it isn’t true.”
    -Katharine Hepburn

    substitute “Rudd” for “me” and OO for Katherine Hepburn

  37. Having watched Question Time today and having concentrated on the expressions on the backbenchers expressions of the respective parties, you’d swear the opposition were in serious trouble and the government didn’t have a care in the world. I just don’t think the government sees this whole thing as a problem politically and I agree with them.

  38. I realise this has nothing to do with politics but this is one of the real tragedies we face. “Only 3500 tigers left worldwide – WWF”

  39. Gary@137

    I noticed that on Tuesday when Abbott and Nelson were skwarking, a woman with dark hair sat behind them (Dana Vale?) had her head turned away the whole time as though she was too embarressed to look.

  43. Parliament- i noticed Julia with a knowing smile on her face yesterday as Nelson forced his mock indignation out like a man who has been constipated for well over a week – you can only sell your credibility so many times.
    Just remember that selfishness will override all else and that after the budget when the carer’s thing is finally put to bed there will be nothing left to talk about, except that (under some pressure) the government did the right thing in the end.
    I think it’s a setup.
    Any consistent set of basic cost cutting would see these bonuses removed and to pay them would damage Wayne’s credibility, so how better to keep them other than to ‘respond’ to community pressure? I can’t think of a better way.
    The libs also forgot to keep piling the crap on Swan who’s apparently doing some serious media training and Aquaman has go absolutely no traction against him for 2 weeks now. Seems like a pretty good trade off to me.
    I hear another great analogy the other night – ‘getting on the bus’. It’s rare in this country at present to find people who are prepared to ‘drive’ the bus, but there are plenty who want to get on board once it gains a little momentum and has apparent direction. I believe this is also the Rudd political strategy. I think they’re pretty cunning at getting someone else to start the bus up.

  47. Salem revisited.

    A judicial enquiry is to be conducted ver the Haneef imbroglio with Andrews and Keelty to be the star witnesses.

    Lets see if any witches get burned this time, now the enquiry won’t be hamstrung by the minor inconvenience of not being allowed to investigate the real suspects, a la AWB travesty of an investigation.

  48. A FORMER NSW Supreme Court judge with a reputation for fiercely protecting his independence is expected to head the Federal Government’s judicial inquiry into the botched counter-terrorism investigation into Mohamed Haneef.

    They should have chosen Justice Kirby – now wouldn’t that be a wonderful irony.

  49. Sorry to flog a dead horse now but a nice contrast to the OO in the SMH

    Liberals accused of hypocrisy on bonus
    KEVIN RUDD assured carers and seniors yesterday that they would be paid their annual cash bonuses before the end of the financial year – and then turned on the Opposition for grandstanding on compassion.

    Ending the saga that has dogged the Government since Friday, Mr Rudd said the Opposition had no right to lecture about compassion given it introduced Work Choices, which attacked wages and conditions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/liberals-accused-of-hypocrisy-on-bonus/2008/03/12/1205126014056.html

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