A couple of things

Three, actually:

• Malcolm Mackerras has told the Heidelberg and Diamond Valley Weekly he expects the Federal Court to order a by-election when it hears the McEwen appeal on March 20 (hat tip to commenter Unicorn). Mackerras states: “The ALP does not need to prove fraud, just that enough voters were disenfranchised by no fault of their own. The court is unlikely to simply kick Fran Bailey out though. A byelection is much more likely.” Which to my mind at least raises the question: if there has to be one by-election, why not several?

• The Rudd government has earned itself some Poll Bludger brownie points with its move to cut the threshold for public disclosure of political donations to $1000. The 2005 increase in this threshold from $1500 to $10,000 was as good a demonstration as any that the Howard government had run its course. The Prime Minister has also floated the possibility of a cap on donations, although I suspect he might lose his enthusiasm for this one in the fullness of time. I have been too busy to give these matters the attention they deserve, but Michelle Grattan provided an excellent overview in Saturday’s Age.

• A Galaxy poll in Sunday’s News Limited tabloids painted a depressingly familiar picture for Brendan Nelson, who was favoured as Liberal leader by just 9 per cent of the 400 respondents, against 24 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, 19 per cent for Peter Costello, 11 per cent for Julie Bishop and 9 per cent for Joe Hockey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

266 comments on “A couple of things”

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  1. I think the only way the Libs have a remote chance of keeping McEwan is if Fran runs again. Her personal vote is needed. Many people I know vote ALP normally but then vote for her because she is a good member.

  5. Good ol David speers. “Govt backsdown, good politics but is it economically responsible?” ie we can’t get the government that way now let’s try something else.
    Obviously a no win situation. These were the same bas_ards that casticated the government for even looking at such a possibility and now that they’ve stopped looking they want to give the impression the government has done the wrong thing. Which is it David?

  7. And the Carers are STILL not happy.

    [Meanwhile the peak body representing carers says a meeting with the Federal Community Services Minister in Canberra has left them more satisfied, but not yet happy.

    Carers Australia says the Minister, Jenny Macklin, has confirmed the bonus payments to carers and seniors will be included in the May budget, and will be paid before the end of the financial year.

    The group’s chief executive, Joan Hughes, says the Minister has committed to meet them again as the Government develops its long-term policies.

    She says they will be campaigning for an increase in financial security for carers.

    “It’s not only about the payments, many of these carers have had to give up work or reduce hours of work, and what does that mean around superannuation, they have none,” she said.

    “So we’ve put measures forward to the Government to consider a carers superannuation scheme, [but] we had no commitment on those sorts of financial measures this morning.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/12/2187685.htm?section=justin

  8. If it’s true, then no doubt Fran Bailey will become the carers’ friend very quickly. Bet she’s not having any long lunches or overseas junkets. She’d have to be a clear favourite in a by-election.

    I’d rather have an indexed fortnightly payment than a fixed annual bonus subject to budget wrangling.

  9. [I’d rather have an indexed fortnightly payment than a fixed annual bonus subject to budget wrangling.]

    Precisely, and frankly that’s what should’ve been done in the first place- Howard has spoilt both carers and seniors, along with families with the different bonuses and has set them up in such a way that if ANY party, including the libs scrapped them, there would be outrage – which I wonder would the Opposition Orifice would’ve created such a stink if the libs were still in Govt and scrapped it ?

  11. The Government’s problem regarding the Carers payment is it looked mean, in saying that we can never fully support those to care for an eldery ot disabled relative.

    Today in parlianment for the first time in a week the Government appeared to get on top of the issue, this raised an issue, is this Government overly dependant on Kevin Rudd.

  12. I like Kina’s naming of “The Australian Liberal”.
    It uses their own neocon redefinition of language nicely. It’s nice that the very term has become so vague as to be almost meaningless.
    What does that say about those who believe it defines them?
    again with the carers issue we’ve seen the wedge used poorly. Now any carers group that accepts the government proposals without oppposition can expect to be shafted by the vindictive libs next time ’round – lovely.
    The mock indignation that Nelson showed in parliament gets on the news for sure, but does he really want to be characterised like that? He epitomised the abusive psychopathic boss who loses it at anyone and everyone in order to bully people into submission. We all knows he’s a worn out piece of dried cellery.

  13. 61 Mexican Beemer Says: “Today in parliament for the first time in a week the Government appeared to get on top of the issue.” Not bad for an issue that actually took off last Friday. As Steve Lewis said on “Agenda”, I don’t think it will have any long term negative effects. Nor do I believe the public really see the opposition as the champions of compassion, given their record on Workchoices.
    I do believe however it gave the opportunity for the conservative press to create the impression that the government WAS GOING TO remove the payments and have forced into a backflip, when this has not been established as a fact.

  14. Noocat your conspiracy theory is tantalising but I think far fetched. I too am suprised at how Rudd has botched this issue. If he was going to reinstate the lump sum, why not do it on day one. Rudd has always respondly quickly and decisively to anything controversial.

  15. From the article I posted back @ 60.

    [In parliament yesterday, Mr Rudd refused to retain the bonuses in their existing form but guaranteed no carer or senior would be worse off after the budget. But last night, after the issue dominated the resumption of parliament, the Prime Minister said through a spokesman that any carers’ and seniors’ bonuses would be paid upfront this year.

    And in the following year, the Government would set the payments in stone by placing them in the budget forward estimates.

    The decision means the Government has moved from a position of considering scrapping the payments to equalling or exceeding them and entrenching them permanently. ]

  16. So why are we not hearing carers saying well done Kev. You delivered on your promises.

    Where are the carers saying thanks for the utilities allowance? Which will lob in their bank account next week.

    Where are the journalists applauding this increase in payments?

    But the real issue is when are we going to revamp the whole disability/carer support system?

    Is someone with a disabilty an adult at 16,18,21,25? Depends on which bucket you happen to be thrown in.

    To means test and at what level? Should a carer of an adult get more than the person with the disability?

    Should we revisit the definition of disabled? A person with say bowel cancer does not qualify because hopefully they will stabilise within 2 years – they get the dole with no mutual obligation (a much lower payment).

    The good thing is that Jenny Macklin in a policy guru, if anyone can sort out the mess she can. But the hysteria and petty point scoring of the last week have made her job much harder.

    Shamaham should be sold as a voodoo doll to all people affected – he has made things so much harder.

  17. 64 Andrew – I believe Rudd was trying to avoid the can of worms he has been forced to open by ruling in or ruling out something that involves the budget.

  18. [64 Andrew – I believe Rudd was trying to avoid the can of worms he has been forced to open by ruling in or ruling out something that involves the budget.]

    I also believe that was the case, and also the most appropriate, but of course the the media spin on it and Brendan 07’s faux caring on the issue forced the matter to a head.

  19. Brendan 07 is a complete dimwit.

    [Dr Nelson said today he would not probe the government on when the bonuses would be paid.

    “Any payment after June 30 this year will mean effectively that Australia’s carers and pensioners will be worse off, and certainly the overwhelming majority want a lump sum payment,” he said.

    “They don’t want something that is paid on a weekly or fortnightly basis.” ]

    and this from the “Carers”

    [Carers Australia said welfare recipients were relieved but still not satisfied the government was providing enough help.

    “We are obviously pleased that Mr Rudd has given carers certainty on this issue,” CEO Joan Hughes said in a statement.

    “But in a practical sense, it doesn’t leave carers any better off than they were before all this began.”
    Ms Hughes said the “turmoil” highlighted the numerous deficiencies in the carers’ support system.

    “The clear message that has come out of this episode is that urgent reform is needed to support carers financially.

    “The current system is confusing and inadequate.”

    Ms Hughes said people who received the bonus, as well as the Carer Payment and the Carer Allowance, already lived week to week with an income about $200 below the minimum wage.

    “It is astonishing that it was ever considered to reduce carers’ income further in order to subsidise what are possibly going to be the most unpopular tax cuts in history.” ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23361601-601,00.html

    Rudd just cannot win either way .

  20. From a procedure point of view it may have been right for Rudd to not get involved but by doing so he mave have created the impression that his Government does not care for Carers, this will linger until at least the budget.

    while to many it’s a small issue it will have cost him some votes amounst the carer community for it’s things like this that create an impression of a Government just like the previous Government always coped it over the Dential program which amounted to only $100 Million a year.

    I felt today Rudd reclaimed this issue and actually won question time today.

  21. The problem for the Government and this is more so for ALP Governments but they cannot ever fully support carer’s and their families.

    I say it’s harder for ALP Governments for the Welfare lobby is generally seen as closer to the ALP and therefore tend to take a higher profile when the ALP are in Government.

    The Welfare lobby always wants more money, I personally disagree for I feel the problem with the welfare budget is not the amount but how it is managed.

    Governments are generally poor managers

  23. Mexican Beemer

    As a disability support pensioner I know that I am already better off under this Govt. I get my first quarterly payment of $125 utilities allowance and the $33 internet allowance next week. As do carers and pensioners.

    So are carers going to say “Thanks Kev” when the $300 lobs? I think so. That is why the timing of this is suspicious.

    Egg on face time for the great unwashed, wallies in the MSM.

  24. “Carers who receive both the Carer Payment and the Carer Allowance as well as the associated bonuses are still living off around $200 per week below the federal minimum wage”.

    Bull Butter.

    Carers Payment – $268.65
    Carers Allowance – $50.30
    Utilities Allowance – $9.62
    Bonuses – $30.77
    Rent allowance – $52.70

    Total $412.04 add to this the payments that the disabled person gets, which could be another $268.65

    Compare this to a single mum, trying to juggle work, childcare.
    Consider this to two old age pensioners.

    I think the minimum wage is $526.

    The carers lobby is powerful but they need to tread carefully – next we will see the shock jocks of ACA and TT “exposing” shonky carers. 🙁

  25. Carers Australia is just another union. Most carers are members but a lot aren’t. Also it is sort of political as just about every candidate for the carers Alliance senate bid came from carers Australia.

  26. And I wonder if Carers will be forced to pay the bonus back if the person they care for dies after it is given, or is it no strings attached like the Baby Bonus ?

  27. 70 Mexican – I think you are missing the difference here between the Dental program which amounted to only $100 million a year and the carers payment. Whereas the previous government DID actually remove the dental program this government has not and will not remove the carers payment. I don’t believe there will be any lingering animosity over this. Don’t forget the government isn’t just going sit back and give them nothing extra for the next 3 years. You watch. They’ll make the pretend champions of the down and trodden look like Scrooge McDuck.

  28. [Carers Australia is just another union. Most carers are members but a lot aren’t. Also it is sort of political as just about every candidate for the carers Alliance senate bid came from carers Australia.]

    I’m pretty sure all the carers featured in the media were provided by Carer’s Australia – note that the people that they were caring for all had multiple disabilites and couldn’t speak for themselves ?

    We didn’t hear from any Paras or Quads or even Cancer Sufferers.

  29. Go Julia.

    [But Ms Gillard has told Parliament the previous government spent $4.5 million on training new make-up artists and manicurists, while it neglected more urgent areas of need.

    “This was their investment in training,” she said.

    “Whilst the mining sector was calling out for skilled workers and the construction sector was calling out for skilled workers, you might not have been able to have been able to get a house built, but you could always go down the beauty parlour and make yourself feel better about it.

    “That was their contribution to training in this nation.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/12/2187909.htm?section=justin

  30. Under the Howard government any agency that made negative noises needed to watch their backs..so they remained fairly quiet. Now we have a reasonable government they risk over playing their hand and helping the opposition at the wrong time.

  31. [Under the Howard government any agency that made negative noises needed to watch their backs..so they remained fairly quiet. Now we have a reasonable government they risk over playing their hand and helping the opposition at the wrong time.]

    Totally agree, as I once said on a physical disability email list and resulted in banning me was that by sucking up to Howard, they would risk being screwed over big time,

    But I said it in much stronger and strident language 🙂

  32. [Nelson] … favoured as Liberal leader by just 9 per cent of the 400 respondents, against 24 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, 19 per cent for Peter Costello, 11 per cent for Julie Bishop and 9 per cent for Joe Hockey.

    Those seem like extremely low ratings for all of them. Perhaps it reflects the level of division in the Lib Party? No leader would really be satisfactory for everyone?

  33. Carers Australia playing politics? This statement doesn’t sound apolitical given that these people would/should know that in Rudd they have more of a friend than Howard.

    “It is astonishing that it was ever considered to reduce carers’ income further in order to subsidise what are possibly going to be the most unpopular tax cuts in history”

  34. “The mock indignation that Nelson”

    I saw that and it looked funny. Nelson red faced trying or, really looking like a grumpy old man. It just doesn’t work for him, not a nice look.

    Rudd has got to be a bit stiffer in his resolve. I remember Howard doing lots of bad things but spinning it and being stubborn which, they then called conviction politics. I guess the difference is that Howard had a sycophant media to help him spin lies as truth, bad as good.

  36. And Today Tonight has yet ANOTHER Story on “Carers, Pensioners and the disabled declare war on Kevin Rudd.”

    ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH !!!!!!!

  40. I’ve read a lot, here and elsewhere, about the merits of the carer’s bonus. But I think there’s an interesting issue here than no-one has given much thought to.

    Why do governments give one-off cash payments to various groups at the end of the financial year? Is it just an election bribe, or a way to avoid commit to the payments on an annual basis? Or is there more to it?

    Those who are parents would know that the Howard Government introduced a $600 or so annual payment, at tax time, to recipients of Family Tax Benefit A. This, of course, is extremely welcome for parents, especially if you have several kids. The payment was introduced after a period of unpleasantness in the early years of Howard, when many parents were forced to pay back family tax beefit over-payments. I was one of these, caught when step-kids moved from one parent’s home to another’s. I accept that I was overpaid, and needed to pay back some money, and for me, it wasn’t a drama. But many families were really hit hard, and the government copped a lot of stick for it.

    Once then introduced this annual “supplement”, the over-payments were largely nullified as a political issue. That’s because, if someone WAS overpaid in family tax benefits, the over-payment was taken out of the annual supplement. The supplement made it easy to reconcile payments on an annual basis, and it was less painful to be denied a supplement or part thereof, than to pay back money you’d already received.

    I suspect this is a motivation for the carer’s one-off bonus too. Carers, even more than parents, may received payments for just part of a year, and, for various reasons, may accidentally get overpaid with carer’s allowance. The bonus allows the government to reconcile overpayments without demanding payback from the carers. A similar case may be made for pension bonuses too.

    If Rudd ultimately decides to turn the carer’s bonus into an annual payment, payable in part fortnightly, it may seem fairer and less susceptible to political manipulation. But it may lead to more carers being forced to repay over-payments, instead of just getting less of a bonus at tax time. That may be
    more politically hurtful for the government.

    Just a thought.

    BTW a baby bonus is a different issue, as each baby only happens once (though I’ve got twins!). I think it’s more justifiable than most other bonsues, though still a poor substitute for a proper paid maternity leave scheme.

  41. “2 ALP Bashing stories on TT, now one on the Private Insurance Rebate rises.”

    Don’t forget that it was TT that conducted the joint Howard/Costello interview. They were working hard to try to paint the duo as the best of friends during the election campaign. It’s pretty clear where TT’s political loyalties lie.

    And I’m sure News Ltd. has been waiting with baited breath for a Rudd-bashing story, hence the massive beat-up. Rudd’s stratospheric PPM ratings were probably leaving a nasty taste in the mouths of many. I noticed that The Australian was referring to the carers payments issue as Rudd’s FIRST mistake – obviously they are waiting for the list to grow. I’m sure we can count on them to try to make the list as long as possible!

    The only problem is that bashing Rudd and Labor just won’t get anywhere as long as the alternative – the Liberals – are so pathetically weak and hopeless. We’ve seen it happen year after year in the states. The same is about to happen federally.

  43. Antonio,

    The “bonus” concept for Carers was to make them tone down any criticisms of the Coalition Government’s policy. Frank @ 81 described perfectly what happened to him when he wanted to differ. A fist full of dollars beats free speech every time.

    If any one believed that Rudd was going to do over the Carers then they don’t vote Labor anyway. The whole story is pure unadulterated bulldust. Won’t hurt Rudd in the short term or the long term.

  44. TurningWorm Says:
    March 12th, 2008 at 1:23 am

    “I’m inclined to think there was some basis to the story about the scrapping of lump sum payments to carers and pensioners.”

    I ask the question, while Labor has the press running around like chooks with their heads cut off over this, what was the real story.

    The press really are making bloody fools of themselves.

  46. Rudd got played, it wasn’t fair or right but it happened. I rekon that we got away with a few doggies re the MSN when we were in opposition.

    I’ll take this hit… no biggie

    next!

  47. [The “bonus” concept for Carers was to make them tone down any criticisms of the Coalition Government’s policy. Frank @ 81 described perfectly what happened to him when he wanted to differ. A fist full of dollars beats free speech every time.]

    Yep, and the funny thing was when I said that the ALP was the only party that supported people with disabilities, I was howled down like anything and were quoting Penny Wong out of Context and praising the Democrats.

    I suggested a national day of action and they flinched cos they were scared that the Howard Govt were going to penalise them for marching and protesting.

    This was the group in question.

    http://www.pdcnsw.org.au/

    Oh and don’t count on the Charities either, they prefer to grace the social pages than help the people they purport to help.

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