Newspoll: 57-43

Lateline has reported that tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred. However, the big news from the survey comes from the preferred prime minister ratings: Rudd 70 per cent, Nelson 9 per cent.

UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. Note the question on the stolen generations apology, which puts overall support at 64 per cent. It would be interesting to see a state-by-state breakdown, because Westpoll’s survey of WA voters (published in The West Australian on February 11) showed 44 per cent in favour against 46 per cent opposed. Elsewhere in The Australian, that shameless Labor booster Dennis Shanahan reports that Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating has “overtaken the previous highs of Mr Hawke, on 60 per cent, and Mr Howard, on 67 per cent” – but with respect to Hawke, it must be remembered that the peak of his popularity was in 1983 and 1984, and that Newspoll did not commence operations until 1985.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

627 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. GG, it’s not a good idea to abuse people out of nowhere for reasons unstated. I have no idea what your quarrel with MM is about, but most people reading this thread would have to assume you were responding to his most recent comment about Iraq.

  2. Diogenes -547
    I’ve always understood that a gentleman should never hand money to a woman in public, but hopefullly nobody got the wrong idea 🙂

    There are apparently a few on here who would rather give 10c to Julia Gillard. Can you believe that?

  3. Hi William,

    Glad to respond. In a previous conflict with MM all would be revealed. He/She/It
    has accused me of all the things specified in my post.

    Just because they have forgotten does not mean we all have alzeimers.

    Hey Marky Marky, own what you say and fight it out on the boards. No one likes whinger.

  4. In re Stephen Galilee
    Whatever the meeja says about whatshisname it will be treating him kindly. Words do not suffice to account the abominations that this being has wrought upon the nation.

  5. Thanks, MayoFeral at 550.

    I had thought ongoing medical costs etc, but assumed they were not included. Equipment and ammo? Support? Does the Senate Estimates do that? I suppose so, in Administration Defence, perhaps. So it is not the mere $2 Billion.

    My thoughts on other costs are rather darker than that.

  6. {Perhaps Fran has confused her role models. Or is that she is trying to outdo Bronnie Bishop?}

    Crikey, compared to Fran, Bronnie was wearing “sack-cloth”.

  7. Lest we forget the condemnation of Howard and Costello’s economic performance last year:

    ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake says the Federal Government should have made better use of the revenue it has made from Australia’s resources boom.

    Mr Eslake has addressed the Australian British Chamber of Commerce and told the gathering the Government has spent or given away almost every single dollar associated with the windfall gains.

    He says it has put upward pressure on interest rates and the money should have been used to address some of the national issues.

  8. And she also got chucked out of the chamber for an hour.

    Probably gave her time to change her apparel and re-do her hair and make-up.

    Bronnie wouldn’t want to be outshone by one of her own kind.

    No worries about anyone much from the other side of the chamber though.

    Especially Ralph’s new 2nd place pin-up, Julia.

  9. ESJ @ 558 [Do you have views on the industrial court generally?]

    Do you mean whether it has been effective as an arbiter of industrial disputes? If so, yes I think it has been an accessible and effective place – the Court and the Commission. A practical specialist tribunal that I reckon has generally had the respect of workers and employers. Shame about the powers taken away from it recently though by you know who. Not sure how much it will get back from Rudd/Gillard either. For example I don’t know what the proposal will be for unfair dismissal cases, whether that will come back to the states. I must look that up -I guess something has been drafted.
    The current President is about to finish up I hear. It will be interesting to see who the next Pres will be, or if any major changes are made given the opportunity.

  10. Did anyone hear Prof Garnaut talking the radio this evening?
    I had never heard him speak before, and at first I thought it was Richie Benaud (or the Twelfth Man?).

  11. I love his site.

    Is there anywhere that we coud get a report on what someone sounds like, rather than what they say?

    We are blessed.

  12. ESJ 570 – Hard to say for an outsider like me. But it still seems to have enough to do, and if more jurisdiction comes back to the states from the Gillard changes they probably won’t close it down. There have been rumours for a long time now about a new super tribunal subsuming many separate courts and tribunals but nothing has come of that so far. Things might now stay as they are for a while, what with the new mob in Canberra.

    Why your keen interest if I may ask?

  13. Crikey Whitey @ 557 – The Yanks supply the ammo and charge it at the going rate, even if it old stock of dubious quality, same for the fuel.

    On going medical costs aren’t included. As an aside, I’ve often wondered whether the military used to subsidise fags during wars because it lowers long term medical expenses given that smokers generally kick the bucket earlier (lung cancer is the cheapest serious illness/disease to treat because most patients die within a few weeks/months of diagnosis).

    A for the $2 bill. add 50% and you’ll probably start getting close to the real figure give the nature of the deployment. The Americans are multiplying the base figure by about a factor of 5x, mostly because of the huge medical costs – especially for mental health – they’re going to be stuck with for perhaps 60-70 years. They’re also going to have to replace most of the army/USMC.Nat Guard’s equipment.

  14. 552
    William Bowe Says:
    February 20th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
    GG, it’s not a good idea to abuse people out of nowhere for reasons unstated. I have no idea what your quarrel with MM is about, but most people reading this thread would have to assume you were responding to his most recent comment about Iraq.

    For sure, but I remember the thing that ESJ is referring too and he is right…was awhile ago, but MM went WAY too far… to paraphrase. “.ESJ promotes/is/supports the KKK”

    No, E.S.J is right to “brace” over that one

    I assume you missed it WB

    I can’t be bugged to find it now…but it’s there… if you can…you’ll see

  15. Fran has been channeling Barbara Cartland for a long time now.
    Same passion for wearing pink, dyeing hair blonde, saturation make up…oh, and she’s into poorly written fiction as well.
    Her car is pink (which was great pre election, looked good in the shots of her driving and talking on her mobile) and so were all her election fliers.
    Try driving through McEwen sometime…lots of pink pictures of Fran looking, oh, twenty two or three, stuck on trees.

  16. If i did which i highly doubt, provide the evidence, as i rarely get personal and if i did than i will apologise.
    Pity the same can’t be said for GG who has already got personal tonight.
    Willam i do wish we all could talk about serious issues.

  17. The following is a commentary on Brad Norington’s Blog at the GG. This is one of the best posts I have seen for a long time. A bit long, but well worth the read.

    {The about face on AWAs suggests the Liberal Party is returning to a more realistic and politically pragmatic approach. It is not before time. The recent Liberal Party has in no way reflected the founding values of moderation, consideration and inclusion that were espoused by the party in its formative years. The late 1980s and early 90s represented a watershed for conservative politics in Australia and the Anglophone West. Neo-Liberalism economic dogma was on the rise with its emphasis on privilege and power for the few and the ascendancy of “market forces” as the dominant force shaping all human outcomes. Work Choices and AWAs were manifestations of this narrow ideological world view. The Work Choices legislation was intended as a platform from which the labour market would be totally deregulated in keeping with the ideological imperative that “market forces” could only be effective if there were no checks and balances. And AWAs were to be the process by which this occurred.
    The removal of Work Choices and the return of a more regulated and inclusive industrial policy is not going to cause massive unemployment and economic downturn. Something much more serious is going to do that. It is called declining productive capacity, and it has nothing to do with the hours Australians work (already some of the longest in the world). What is powering the Chinese and Indian economies? It is industrial productive capacity supported by an increasingly skilled workforce and that is what provides the basis of strength. The scourge of neo-liberal or “market forces” economic dogma has largely destroyed our industrial capacity and it is this that will have to be rebuilt. And it is in advanced high value, high skill technological industries that Australia’s future is to be found. Heavy industry (steel making and the like) have an important domestic role to play but in the global economy it is the high end of industrial production that we stand our best chance to reduce our utter dependency on mineral exports to sustain us. And Work Choices with its emphasis on the exploitation and degrading of the broader workforce is something that clearly was NOT the way for this country to go.}

  18. Oh BTW, thanks to all that offered their bit re my request about aspartame. I passed the info on and was told “see, told ya” (sigh)… Mentioned what was said about Caffeine and received this—(beats lining Crystal)…

    What can you say?… I suppose it does

    I think my point was not only lost… I never even touched base

  19. Marky Marky,

    You can’t remember your previous abuse, so therefore it never happened.

    How very Kennett of you.

    I promise not to engage you again because you are a complete moron.

  20. Oh God,

    I think I have mixed my ESJ’s up with my GG’s. srry too all (although I will put in the effort to find the doobie I was refering too… re:MM)

    But this will have to wait till tomorrow cos I’m exhausted … its going to be a all-night watch tonight I’m sure… my friend is teetering and I fear the abyss is near

    it’s not the only thing yawning :stress:

  21. I promise not to engage you again because you are a complete moron.

    Cannot provide the evidence but instead denigrate me this sums you up Greensborough as to what kind of individual you are.
    Like many other right wingers on this site who hate criticism of right wing policies they get personal with insults, this is how the right faction operates they accuse people of being this or that and rarely any of it is true.
    Greensborough THIS DOES NOT REFER TO YOU okay.

  22. Sigh, Scorpio. Admirable. I admired, too, the article in The Age, to which I referred earlier. If only I could be so analytical and erudite. Gosh, I nearly typed ‘head screwed on and golly’. Just smart enough to work out who to vote for and kind of why I would do so.

    Fortunately for me, some better heads pull their words together. If not the acts of those who should be urged. Including the Pinko, apparently. How ironic.

    Thanks, Chris in LDN. I will continue to avoid such things.

    Right, MayoFeral. I reckon the multiplier should be a little higher, otherwise no question.

  23. Crikey Whitey Says: @ 588

    { I admired, too, the article in The Age, to which I referred earlier. }

    I read that one too Crikey.

    Seems as though there are still a couple of sensible, fair minded, intelligent Liberal (liberal) supporters out there.

    It’s a pity that they seem to have been marginalised by more radical, right-wing, conservative elements who have hijacked the movement and controlled it for so long to the detriment of the country.

  24. Work Choices with its emphasis on the exploitation and degrading of the broader workforce is something that clearly was NOT the way for this country to go.

    The notion of exploitation, borne out of the flawed and totally dismissed Marxist labour theory of value, is simply absurd.

    The supply of labour is wholly voluntary, as is its withdrawal.

  25. You’re right, GP – I can starve if I want to! What’s more, I can look my children in the eye and say “I know you’re dying of hunger, but I said I wouldn’t work under those conditions and I’m a person of principle. Get over yourselves.”
    A spell in the real world would do you the world of good.

  26. OMG, the end of the world just has to be nigh!

    Nick Bolkus is ‘getting into bed’ with Lord Downer of Mayo. [swoon]

    Apparently, he is the third partner of the business Dolly and Nat Stott Despoja’s hubby are setting up.

    I blame Rudd! This would never have happened under Howard! 😉

  27. 590 GP another exponent of the right to starve I see. Where do you get this crazy notion that if you don’t like your job just leave and live on nothing? Then you abuse anyone living on welfare.

  28. 591,
    [The supply of labour is wholly voluntary, as is its withdrawal.]

    That is quite a ridiculous statement GG, totally divorced from the real world that we now inhabit, especially since 1996.

    It may be the case that it is a voluntary decision in some respects for a worker to decide whether or not they seek work and who they decide to work for, but, for economic reasons as well as the fact that a worker does not qualify for any form of Social Security assistance if they voluntary decide to withdraw from the labour market or withdraw from their current employment.

    A worker withdrawing their labour for whatever reason within employment, under current Employment Law, (and there doesn’t appear to be much change to this under Labor’s proposed Legislation) is subject to sanctions, whereas employers can withdraw a workers employment for whatever reason with the blessing of the State.

    It all seems quite fair to you, GP, but not necessarily so to the majority of the community.

  29. Hi Scorpio @ 595,

    “That is quite a ridiculous statement GG, totally divorced from the real world that we now inhabit, especially since 1996.”

    I often make ridiculous statements but not that one. GP owns 591.


  30. It may be the case that it is a voluntary decision in some respects

    It is a voluntary decision in ALL respects. There is nothing stopping a worker from withdrawing or supplying their labour at any time. Such action may have positive or negative consequences, but that is not the point.

  31. 525
    Diogenes , I respect the notion that you are a qualified medical practitioner in some field of medicine.. I am not.
    I find it hard to believe that you can make your sweeping statement that;
    “Like all artificial substances, it has been blamed for almost every disease imaginable but none of the evidence is credible.”

    Four years ago I was diagnosed with supposed “Atrial Fibrilation”. I will not go into the history of how it all came about but it certainly got me into researching all the likes of MSG and neurotoxins that I was able to over a long period.
    Subsequently I followed the trail of Aspartame and all of its glorious history via Rumsfeld and the FDA including accessing documents submitted to the FDA by Senators etc etc. How it was engineered to get FDA approval using Rumsfeld is nothing more than a sick joke. That is one part of it that IMO says that it should not be on the market.

    Additionally I have difficulty coming to terms with how people brush aside evidence that is put forward by persons with the qualifications of Dr Russell Blaycock MD who I believe is a very respected neurosurgeon in the US and I also believe that he has no ties to big Pharma.

    I can not find any arguments that dispute that aspartame above 85 degrees F breaks down to; Extract from
    * All metabolites of aspartame (formaldehyde, methanol, diketopiperazine and formic acid)
    I also can not believe that any of the above are good for the body in any quantities especially when some are cumulative.

    The below paragraphs are also an extracts from the same site;

    Neurosurgeon Russell Blaylock, M.D., one of the world’s leading authorities on aspartame neurotoxicity, extensively reviewed the Soffritti report. “This study confirmed the previous study by Dr. Trocho and co-workers (l998), which also found the formaldehyde breakdown product of aspartame to be damaging to cellular DNA and that this damage was cumulative. The type of damage was a duplicate of that associated with cancers. These two studies strongly indicate that drinking a single diet cola sweetened with aspartame every day could significantly increase one’s risk of developing a lymphoma or leukemia.”

    Because Rumsfeld placed politics above public health and safety, hundreds of millions of people throughout the world cannot think clearly and suffer from a variety of chronic illnesses. It is, therefore, fitting that symptoms associated with aspartame use be known as “Rumsfeld,s disease.”

    I believe that we will hear a lot more about aspartame in the coming years.

  32. Hi all 🙂

    Roy Orbison #513

    [1) Irag – we’re out]: We’re only taking out the troops in or around Basra I believe it is. Purely symbolic.

    [2) Stolen Generation – kissed and made up] Good on Rudd for this one but a sorry is empty without deeds! Let us not reinstate the permit system.

    [3) Workchices – gone (along with some Liberal credibility)] Lol, not true, Howard won this one and he did it by sacrifincing his government.

    [4) Kyoto – signed] Symbolic we were going to meet it anyway. We contribute whay 0.5% in emissions on a global scale? I must say I’m surprised JWH didn’t sign it as it would have meant Labor would have had less amunition to use against him.

    [And we haven’t even used up the first two weeks! There is not much more that JWH stood for, if you exclude squatting at Kirribilli. Oh – that’s gone too.] JWH believed in offering people choice.
    [You’ve got a lot to be angry about, JOM.] What for?

  33. I agree with John of Melbourne.

    Much of Rudd’s cherished “achievements” have thus far been exercises in self-aggrandising symbolism.

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